Estro
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Posts posted by Estro
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I like Kirk. He's a solid slot WR, but I don't see him as a $12M a yr WR. I'm not saying he won't get it, but I'm not sure I want my team paying that price.
If he wants to come in on a discount I could get behind it, but I don't think paying big bucks to a slot WR is smart roster management.
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The article states the Pegulas have to come up with $200M of which less than half will from PSLs.
It also stated the cheapest PSLs will cost $1,000.
So I'm guessing their benchmark for PSLs will be in the $80M range, through the sale of 50,000 season tickets. So you're looking at roughly an avg PSL of $1,600. With the cheapest being $1000, you're probably looking at PSLs being in the 1k-2.5k per seat depending on where your seats are.
I still think PSLs are going to gut demand for season tickets. I know personally I've had season tickets for 20 years (4 of them) and I'm 100% throwing in the towel once I owe PSLs.
I'm in section 134 so I'm predicting about a $2000 PSL per seat and there's just no way I'm forking over 8k to the Pegulas just for the privilege of forking over another 6k a year to pay for my tickets. I'm only able to get to about 2-3 home games a year and with StubHub fees up around 45% (ludicrous) I just lose way too much money to justify paying for PSLs.
I'm curious what other Season Ticket Holders are thinking. You guys prepared to fork over 1-3k per ticket on PSLs?
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Tony Pauline @ ProfootballNetwork had an article stating the Steelers are set to make a run at Tribusky, but that they may have competition from the Giants. He reported it could take big money to sign him.
A month ago I was of the mind that Tribusky would get a $6-8M deal for a chance to compete, but after this chatter that he may be in demand, I'm wondering if he might not go for a lot more. You look back and there has been some crazy contracts handed out to marginal QBs in the last decade:
Foles
Dalton
Glennon
Is it possible Tribusky finds $13-16M? I think it's rich, but I'm starting to think itll be closer to that than my original projection.
I'm going to set the over/under @ $12M per year. I can easily see him finding a 2 year $26M deal.
Obviously if he signs for anything north of $10M the Bills will net a 4th round compensatory pick for him. If he signs for $15M + we'd be in line for a 3rd rounder (in 2023). Come on Steelers and Giants get that bidding war going!
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Factoring in what I think the Bills covet in a WR prospect coupled with who I think has a real chance to be available @ #25:
Jahan Dotson
Tough, great hands, separates and can play all over the formation. What will be interesting would be if both Jameson Williams & Dotson were both available @ #25 I'd be curious who the Bills would prefer.
I will say I don't think Drake London is a prospect the Bills would be interested in and I think hus hype in the media is a lot different than what happens on draft day. Slow WRs that can't separate aren't guys I want in the 1st round.
A mid round pick I like later on is UCLA, WR, Kyle Phillips.
Another mid/late round pick I like as a speed merchant is Danny Gray, WR, SMU. Guy can fly.
Much like the Gabe Davis draft year it appears WR is so deep it wouldn't surprise me if the Bills waited until round 3 or 4 on a WR. This would give them the opportunity to fill some other needs like DL, CB & OL with their premium picks.
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42 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Why would Raiders trade him?
It's a fair question and my answer would be this:
Derek Carr is probably somewhere between the 10th-15th best QB in the NFL and if some desperate team comes calling you at least listen. If you can get a bounty for the 12th best QB in the league who's about to need a new expensive contract.....why not do it?
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Just now on NFLN, Beane confirmed
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11 minutes ago, SWATeam said:
I've basically seen all of McD's interviews since then. He includes himself in the failed execution and never once has named anyone else.
He includes himself, but in a coy way, where he also lets you think it was proabably soemoen elses fault. To me if it was 99% on him, he should've come out within 48 hours of the game and owned it. By leaving it to everyone's imaginations he's doing the coaching staff and team a great disservice.
It got to the point where our kicker reposted videos of him squib kicking a day after the game on social media because so many people started speculating that he messed up. McDermott talks the talk, but if it was his fault and he's hiding from it, than how can anyone on the team take him serious? If a player fumbles, McDermott will bench them and ridicule them......but if he's responsible for some truly bone headed decisions he seems to protect himself behind "organizational communication & execution". That's weak, really weak.
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He's in the $10-12M per yr range now, IMO. With a big season I think he could push into the $13-14M range
If Beane could lock him up for 4 years $45M now it'd be a deal
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Any high end QB, of which there are 3 (rumored to be possibly on the move):
Aaron Rodgers
DeShaun Watson
Russell Wilson
Coming to the AFC, or more specifically into the AFC East would change the math.
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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I agree with you totally on London. I am not sure I see separation in his game and that worries me because when you look at the tape I don't know where you look to find that separation in his game.
I think on Burks's tape it is more inconsistent and to me there is an identifiable root cause and that is that he is a bit of a sloppy route runner right now. I think get him proper pro receiver coaching and work on his cuts and the precision at the top of his routes (he tends to round things off at the top of the route too much for my liking) and I think you will see the separation happen more consistently. The separation thing was a knock on Gabe Davis coming out of UCF and I said then with him, he can do it he needs to tidy up his footwork in the release off the line and the Bills have definitely improved that with him which leads me to believe that they could coach Burks up. It is a different technical thing but it is similar that there is a young receiver there with the capacity to separate but with a technical flaw that needs refinement. I do think 40 time will be big for Burks but to my eye he looks plenty explosive after the catch to me. It's route running technique where he needs work and that is coachable.
Upon further review I probably shouldn't have put Burks and London in the same bucket.
Burks does create separation, just not to the same degree as some of the others I like more. He's more of a build up speed type of guy. It takes him a little bit, but once he gets into 5th gear he's moving.
I'm with you 100% on London though, I dont see him a a 1st round WR prospect.
I saw Matt Miller comping him to Mike Evans on twitter today.....I don't see that at all. Mike Evans was 230lbs at the Combine and had some speed. London is probably 15-20 lbs lighter, and I don't see the speed/quicks to separate. He wins with physicality atthrcatch point and I think that will be totally neutralized in the pros. I see more Limas Sweed than Mike Evans.
I just think the Bills have a type they covet @ WR & I don't think London fits what they like at all. I could see them talking themselves into Burks, but hes not totally their type either.
For those drooling over Williams, the speed is intoxicating and had me drooling too. I do want to point out though that he's not a natural hands catcher. A lot of body catches and double clutches is somewhat concerning.
The one guy that's been growing on me is Dotson, from Penn St. A little undersized, but hes got it all. Speed, quicks, physical......can win at the catch point. Plus he's a dog, and loves football. I could see him being a guy the Bills fall in love with
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I'm not as high on the 2 bigger Wrs, London and Burks. Neither one creates much separation. I prefer the quicker, faster shifter guys like Wilson, Williams, Olave and Dotson.
I also think the Bills prefer WRs that create separation and IMO Burks does not fit that description.
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On his most recent Spotrac podcast, Mike G. broke down the FA class with some value projections as well as where some players "could" land.
I put could in parentheses because I've found Mike G to have what seems like some insider knowledge when it comes to the Bills. Thats why when I hear any predicitions he makes regarding the Bills, I perk my ears up. Last year he said sownthing to the effect of "keep an eye on Tribusky to a team like the Bills for a team friendly 1 year deal." Then about 3 days later it happened. Maybe it was total coincidence, but common sense says probably not.
In his most recent episode he talked Christian Kirk coming alive in the Cardinals offense once Murray started pushing the ball down the field more. He linked him to a team with a QB that can get him the ball down the field, and specifically predicted with Josh Allen and the Bills. Had his value pegged @ 4 yrs - $48M.
A little later he said he liked Cowboys Guard, Connor Williams, to land in Buffalo where he'll be a better fit scheme wise on a 3 year - $21M deal. I think cutting Feliciano is a given, but a move like this I would assume means the Bills would also cut/trade Daryl Williams. Connor Williams plays RG, so no way you're paying him $7M a year without moving Daryl, IMO.
That Christian Kirk move would be a pretty sick addition though. And would probably also forecast them moving on from Beasley. Mike G. didn't dive into the weeds on who he'd expect to be cut to make room for these moves, but I'd be interested to hear his take on that.
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7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
Good work on the #s
Have to quibble- Steve Smith was one of the strongest, most physical wideouts ever and was definitely imposing
as was prime AB, in his day one of the fastest and twitchiest imo
It's a fair quibble, I almost pulled him out of the comps realizing he was a much more physical WR.
1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:I don't understand the whole narrative that he is underpaid. People overvalue Diggs because they don't follow the NFL enough.
Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game. He is paid right in that range.
The Bills have already gave him more cash this past year. Let him play out his deal and replace him.
$20-$22M is going to be in the 5-10 range for WR money in a year.
Hopkins new deal gave him $27.5M per fir 2 years & you'll see Davante Adams get a similar # this offseason.
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Stefon Diggs is in the prime of his career & just turned 28 in November. He's underpaid thanks to a very team friendly contract he signed w/ the Vikings & I think this is the yr. he's going to get a big $ extension.
But how many prime yrs. does Stefon have left in the tank? I thought of 5 WRs to compare to Diggs to see when their cliff came. Based on physical traits my comps were Marvin Harrison, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce. They are not physically imposing or pure burner types, but more of the crafty, route running, technician type WRs.
Marvin Harrison's cliff came in his age 35 season. Antonio Brown is tough to use in this exercise because his cliff is a result of his off field stuff, so let's throw him out. Steve Smith hit his cliff during his age 34 season. Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce both hit the wall @ 35 years old.
I was actually surprised to see how old these guys were before they hit their wall. I would've guessed their stats dived around 32 years old, so seeing productive seasons until 34-35 makes an extension much more palatable.
& while it's nice having 2 years left on an extremely team friendly deal I don't see Diggs being cool playing for 60% of his value any longer and so I think something gets done this offseason.
We know Beane will hand out top of the market deals to key players (Allen, White, Dawkins), but we also know he likes to keep the remaining yrs of the current deal & tack on the big $ as an extension.
Diggs has:
2 years - $27.2M left on his deal & his current valuation via spotrac is $22.1M per yr. So I think Diggs is in line for a 3 year $67.5M extension & they'll keep the remaing 2 yrs @ $27.2M as part of the deal. This way Diggs & his agent can promote $22.5M per year, but the team gets a more manageable 5 years of control @ $95M for an avg APY of $19M per. The Bills will also give Diggs a nice chunk of change up front in the form of bonuses, which players desire and it'll help drop his cap hit for the '22 season and maybe even the '23 season before a sizeable jump in 2024 (when the sakary cap itself will be much higher.)
He's currently set to have an $18M cap hit in '22 & with the extension above his cap hit could easily be cut in half although I'd expect Beane to massage that # to around 12M. This gives the team an extra $6M in cap space this year.
Lastly I'd expect guaranteed money to run 3 years, so there'd be a possible out after Diggs age 31 season, but would probably be more palatable from a dead $ standpoint to move on after year 4 if need be (when Diggs would be 32). And after doing the research on other WRs producing well @ 33-34 I don't think it unrealistic to think he could play out all 5 years at a high level.
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Just from a raw #'s standpoint we ste going to need a few DL. Now there's FA, trades and the draft but we're set to lose at least a couple of DL & given Beanes history drafting one with a top 100 pick is likely.
FAs:
Hughes
Addison
Phillips
Butler
Obada
Possible cuts:
Star Lotulelei
So as you can see even if we resign a couple of our own FAs we are still going to need to add.
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3 hours ago, WotAGuy said:
If you are selling off many games on the secondary market and bitching about the low return, just buy tickets on the secondary market and ditch the seasons. If you aren’t going to every game, maybe the economics will work out.
I live 7 hours from the stadium now and have 3 little kids so getting to games isn't as easy as it once was. I still like having the seasons, I've had them for 20 years with my brother. The thing was I used to be able to sell off the 4-5 games I couldn't attend on Stubhub and at least break even or make a little bit. Now with Stubhubs ever increasing fees (30-35% on the buyer side & 10% on the seller side) coupled with the soft demand the last couple years its tough to not sell tickets at a significant loss
It's not bitching as much as it is just stating facts. It'd be cool if Stubhub had some competition & their fees weren't so out of hand. Stubhub has vacuumed every penny out of the resale market. Their old pricing structure of 10% on the seller side & 15% on the buyer side seemed fair. The new structure is almost robbery.
Funny how local laws would have people arrested for doing this outside of the stadium, yet stub lhub is an official partner of the NFLs. Funny how that works.
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5 hours ago, CodeMonkey said:
There won't be many. And for those that do, there will be others to buy them up. Particularly seats like yours. The team playing well after a long suck period, and the border open. Bills fans in general will pay whatever is asked. Look at how many kept paying even during the decade of suck to "support their team".
It pisses a lot of people off that the state will throw money at it, myself included. It should all be paid for by the team, the NFL, and the fans that go to the games.
Yet nobody wanted to go to games this past season. Outside of the Steelers game, demand for tickets was as bad as I can ever remember.
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46 minutes ago, Greg S said:
Wait till the new stadium. Bills fans will be saying hello PSL fees.
I've said it before and I'll say it again:
If the Bills think PSLs are going to work, & I agree with you I think thays the plan, they're in for a rude awakening, IMO.
This season, one of the best Bills teams of the last 25 years, and I struggled to sell my tickets on the secondary market. The games after September had very little demand and the prices reflected that. My tickets to the Panthers game sold for $15 a piece (lower level, 50 yard line, Bills side). Maybe covid and the situation @ the border suppressed the market some, but I don't think that's the only factor.
I'm 100% not renewing my 4 season tickets if and when they try and tack on PSLs. I wonder what they think they can get away with as far as PSL. Im thinking $1250-2500 for the lower level seats between the 40s.
Is anybody else prepared to walk away if the Bills want 5-10k just for the right to keep your seats?
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Todd McShay has Kyler Gordon going 21st overall to the Patriots in his mock draft that came out this morning. It's the earliest I've seen him going & I expect this trend to continue.
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Gordon's teammate & fellow CB, Trent McDuffie, seems to get more pub, but I really like Gordon.
Good size, 6' & 200lbs, and looks really fluid. He's also a plus in run support, which I think Bills scouts covet in CBs. I haven't seen a ton of early 1st round hype surrounding this guy, but if his speed and change of direction #s look good @ the Combine he's going in the 1st round. He was part of Bruce Feldmans freak list, apparently has insane vertical jump and agility #s, do it wouldn't surprise if he blows up @ the combine. Also has background in dance, Kung fu and ballet according to profootballnetwork.com, each just adds to the dudes motion and fluidity.
CBs that have size, speed and physicality that project as quality starters don't last long. I really like Gordon.
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-Potato chips & helluva good Fr. onion dip
-Tortilla chips & salsa
-Veggie Tray (very underrated!)
-Pigs in a blanket
-Chicken Wings
-Mozzarella Sticks
-Macaroni Salad
-Sausage & Peppers
-Make your own Ice Cream Sundaes
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2 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:
How are you fitting that salary into our cap? you need to send out a contract. His cap number for 2022 is around 26 million, yikes! we would need to send them Milano or Edmunds and still need to do a load of work.
His cap hit with the Vikings is $26M with he Vikings but as soon as he's traded to another team he's due $25.5M over 2 years by his new team. His cap hit would not be $26M with the Bills, is what I'm trying to say.
Long way of saying the Bills could very easily fit Hunter into the cap going forward if they were inclined to do so
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6 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:
They’d have to cut a lot of good players just to be able to afford that contract. Pipe dream
That's just not true. He's owed $25.5M over the next 2 years. You could easily tack on a 2-3 year extension and his '22 cap hit could be as low as $5-6M while still giving him the $20M in cash he's due in '22.
The cap is set to soar starting next year & pushing $ into future years allows us to make a big move or 2 this season
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8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
The Vikings are $14M under the cap for 2022.
The Bills are $1.3M under the cap.
We are in a bit better shape, but not a lot. And Hunter would cost us $19.5M this year.
Yes, it's possible, and yes they could kick cans down the road, but it would start us towards being in consistent cap problems. And Beane doesn't want to do that. Which is going to be a good thing for a lot of years. I don't see it, myself, though again it's certainly not impossible.
But for a guy who's played seven games in two seasons I'm guessing it's too big of a gamble.
Spotrac has the Vikings $14M OVER the cap, not under.
And while Danielle Hunter gets $20M this season he's only due $5.5M in 2023, so it's a very easy deal to rework and make the cap # in '22 very team friendly.
I guess my thought is, with an aging avg. QB on Kirk Cousins I think the Vikings are on the cusp of blowing it up and beginning a rebuild. If thats the case you wonder if they'd be motivated to maybe flip Hunter for draft picks because by the time they're ready to truly compete in a few years he'll probably be a declining player.
I think a 1st and 4th is probably what it would take. My heart says maybe a 2nd, but my brain says it'd take a 1 + to motivate the Vikings to make the deal.
Bills FA rumors thread
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Haha, you nailed it.
There's a handful of Buffalo media/radio guys that I've come to realize are full of shiz. Nate Geary is one of them.