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Estro

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Posts posted by Estro

  1. On 12/28/2023 at 4:40 AM, QB Bills said:

    After playing around with the playoff simulator, there's a plausible way the Bills miss out that involves only one potential underdog having to win in a group of 8 games over the next two weeks.

     

    Week 17

    Bills over pats

    Colts over Raiders

    Jags over Panthers

    Texans over Titans

    Steelers over Seahawks

     

    All the teams above are home favourites except for the Steelers who are a 3 pt underdog on the road

     

    Week 18

    Dolphins over Bills

    Jags over Titans

    Steelers over Ravens

     

    Bills likely a small underdog next week. Jags on the road but will still be favoured. Steelers likely playing Ravens backups if Ravens win this week in Miami and will be favoured if so. 

     

    Hopefully they take care of business in Miami so all of this is moot.

     

    And before anyone asks, yes I'm fun at parties.

    Dude you were on this early and guess what every single one of your week 17 scenarios came true. And none of your week 18 scenarios are far fetched......and we now know the Steelers are 3.5 pt favs in Baltimore, indicating the Ravens are sitting starters.

     

    Color me very nervous.....the Bills can't slip up vs Mia

  2. 1) Bills lose @ Dolphins

    - current line Bills -3

     

    2) Titans lose vs. Jaguars

    - current line Titans +3.5

     

    3) Ravens lose vs. Steelers

    - current line Ravens +3.5

     

    So what that last line shows you is the Ravens will be resting starters with the #1 seed locked up. I have little to no faith in the Titans......so I really think the Bills could entirely miss the playoffs if they don't get the W in Miami.

     

    Next week could very well be the #2 seed with a win and missing the playoffs entirely with a loss. Crazy!

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  3. What would the Bills be willing to give up in trade compensation to acquire Patrick Surtain Jr.  Regarded as one of the best young CB's in the league he'd certainly be a huge upgrade after the Tre White injury. He also has 2 cheap years left on his deal.

     

    He's due less than 2M for the rest of this year, a little over 3M next year and you still have the 5th year option to control his '25 season.

     

    The Bills have the next 4 games (including todays) to get a good look at how Benford, Jackson, Elam and perhaps even Ingram will hold it down at outside CB........but what would you be willing to part with to drop in one of the best young CBs onto this roster?

     

    I happen to think it would take a 1st + Elam at a minimum and likely a little more than that.  I love the idea, but at that price and given what we've heard about the strength of the '24 draft it's tough.

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  4. I watched 1 game of his last year. All be it, it was one of his better games and I immediately put $100 on him to be the 1st overall pick @ 100-1 odds. This was back in October-November. He may be rough around the edges, but his size and athleticism jumped off the screen. For my money he should've been the 1st pick (of course I was a bit biased after placing my bet!)

  5. 16 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

     

    Yeah... it's sort of crazy how that's all happened.  I was a bit shocked when I saw the fees this year - hundreds per ticket!  Insanity.

     

    If you do end up having an extra pair for the Giants game, just let me know, I'd buy them - those are indeed great seats.  I'm not going to take the Stubhub replacement tickets.

    I'll have a better idea in a couple of weeks on the Giants game. My cousin is a Giants fan so we may go to that game, but it's 50/50 at this point. 

    I'll know for sure in a week or 2

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  6. There fees over thr last 20 years have slowly risen from 10% on each side to close to 20-25% on each side.

    They lobbied congress to make street scalping illegal and then became the worst scalpers of all. Very sneaky.

     

    BTW, I have 4 season tickets on the 50 yard line, Bills sideline, row 40. Some of the best seats in the house. My brother and I don't make it to every game so if you're ever looking send me a message. I'll save you some money and you'll save me some money not having to absorb all those stubhub fees.

     

     

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  7. Oliver won't be signing for anything in Buffalo. You can't pay an undersized DT who's poor against the run and not a natural pass rusher. 

     

    Listening to Greg Cosell, who puts in the work, refer to Oliver as a poor pass rusher was all I needed to hear. If another team wants to give him $12-16M a year, take the 4th round comp pick, admit you whiffed and move on. 

     

    Next year the Bills will be looking for a solid DT in FA and perhaps yhe draft too. I'm fine with that.

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  8. Buyer beware with Jerry Jeudy:

     

    His NFL career thus far is very reminiscent to Sammy Watkins career arc.

     

    Can't stay healthy and has problems coming down with contested catches. I loved Jeudy coming out in the draft, but you can't ignore the disappointing career in the NFL so far.  Particularly concerning to me is his lack of tracking the ball and going up and getting it down the field. He lacks looseness and jumping ability thay most high end WRs possess

  9. I know talking about compensatory picks is a running joke at times on this forum, but it's worth pointing out:

     

    If Edmunds goes for what some people think he might go for ($17-18M per yr) it'll be necessary for the Bills to sign 1 less UFA than they lose to lock in a 3rd round comp. pick.  Throw in Poyer leaving for probably 12-14m per yr....and the Bills might be looking at a 3rd and 4th round comp pick for the 2024 draft.  Of course they'd have to have a net loss of 2 players in FA to get both picks.

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  10. It was a McDermott pick. Wasn't the story McDermott is best buds with the Baylor HC. One of the many issues with having a defensive minded HC. The conservative game plans is a huge problem, but the consistent high draft picks spent on defensive players over offensive players is a bigger problem. 

     

    Since drafting Allen in '18 

     

    We've gone:

     

    '18

    1st - Josh Allen

    1st - Tremaine Edmunds 

    3rd - Harrison Phillips

     

    '19

    1st - Ed Oliver

    2nd - Cody Ford

    3rd - Devin Singletary

    3rd - Dawson Knox

     

    '20

    2nd - AJ Epenesa 

    3rd - Zack Moss

     

    '21

    1st - Greg Rousseau

    2nd - Boogie Basham

    3rd - Spencer Brown

     

    '22

    1st - Kaiir Elam

    2nd - James Cook

    3rd - Terrel Bernard

     

    That's 8 premium picks on defense & 7 on offense. The problem with the 7 on offense is 3 were spent on RBs, perhaps the least valuable offensive position.

     

    This team needs an influx of young talent on yhe offensive side of the ball.

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  11. I thought he was awful today & I thought he was great in his first year as an announcer.

     

    He started a little quirky, but he brought so much insight it was refreshing. Now he's jist a dumbed down, awkward version of what he once was. Not really a fan

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  12. Yips.

     

    He looked great the first 6 weeks of the season. Dorsey was universally applauded for the job he was doing.

     

    Something has been off with Allen the last 3 games. I think its a combination of mental (yips) and physical (elbow).

     

    I hope we see the September and early October version of Allen again because I don't think we are doing much of anything in the playoffs if he doesn't improve

  13. All due respect, I think Murphy is terrible. I went for a 20 minute bike ride around the neighborhood with my wife and daughter last week during halftime and I listened to Murph and Wood for about 10 minutes.

     

    I think it was a possession where Kirk threw a pick early in the 3rd quarter....I remember thinking Murph was so underwhelming the entire drive.  His call/excitement comes across in a very forced and inauthentic manner, IMO. I'm just not a fan.

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  14. 3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

    Wait, what?  I'm going to go look into that incident.  Didn't hear about it.

     

     

    Yea take a look. It begins around the 59 minute mark. He's clearly uncomfortable/hot on the bus and you can tell he wants to get out of there. Finally he gets up mid interview and says he needs to get some air. He plays it off as if he's not feeling well, but I think he was having some type of claustrophobia episode where he wanted to get the hell off of that cramped and hot bus. He eventually comes back on fir a few more minutes and then abruptly leaves again, "saying he'll catch an uber".  

     

    My main reason for bringing it up was those type of panic attacks are a sign that mentally things can go sideways on him sometimes.......and today on the field things just looked like they got really out of hand from him. I thought his lack of confidence and inability to let things rip was just really noticeable.

  15. Teams,are going to have bad days, and today was a terrible day, so the loss doesn't devastate me as m7ch as the way Josh Allen has played over the last game and a half.

     

    He seems lost, like rookie season loss. He's rarely hitting his bckfoot and letting it rip, which indicates he's either not see the field well or he's lacking confidence to just let it rip.

     

    This post is to ask does anyone on this board have any insight into Allen's waning mental confidence. I remember earlier in his career himtakjing about actually sitting down with some type of psychologist orcoach who helped him with his confidence and how important that is to QBing. I believe he first mentioned it in the offseason after the Houston playoff loss.

     

    Today it just looked like he had 0 confidence in himself and he looked he was in his head all day.  Really concerning that a major case of mental yips might be entering the picture right at the sane time he'll be dealing with an elbow injury.

     

    It's my belief that Allen sometimes deals with some type of mental panic attacks (see his interview on Bussin with the Boys), where he needs to take a break mid interview and actually exits the bus before coming back to finish up from this past offseason.  I think things can go sideways fast with Allen when things go south, and it's a problem

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  16. 30 minutes ago, Jukester said:

    What’s off to me is how underwhelming this rendering release is as far as views and details. Two pictures after all this time and all the hype?? Horrible horrible marketing. Instead of pumping up the fans with excitement, many of us are left with more questions. Honestly these pictures aren’t too different than the generic ones they released when Populous was announced. Why not wait til you have more to release like interior, suites, overhead, and 360 degree interactive views. I’m still confident the stadium is going to be fantastic (a little worried about the canopy) but just can’t believe they blew the rendering release this badly. 

    Felt the same way.

     

    Long wait, for 2 nondescript pictures. It's on par with what I expected, though.  They have an awesome on field product, but the Bills business side of things has always been acluster you know what, IMO.

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  17. 8 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

    No QB in NFL History has ever had a 6,000 Total Yard season. 

     

    The record is currently held by Drew Brees with 5,562. He had 5,476 passing and 86 rushing.  

     

    Peyton Making has the most passing yards in a season with 5,477... 1 more than Brees.

     

    Josh Allen presently has 1,980 passing and 257 rushing,  total 2,237... this is a 17 game pace for 5610+728=6330... shattering the record and on pace for first 6k season ever. 

     

    Time will tell if he can do it.  Unfortunately winter weather in Buffalo usually brings decreased offensive stats so he needs to get the numbers up early to carry him into December/January where every game will be outdoor northern winter weather (games in Buf, NE, Chi, Cin).

    Won't happen, the turn of weather in Buffalo in late November through the end of the season holds down what Allen's stats would be if he played in a warm or domed climate

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