BillsFanForever19
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1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
Keon Coleman -> 0
Taylor Rapp -> 9
Chase Claypool -> 14 (lol)
Cole Bishop -> 24
Deon Jones -> 45
Dawuane Smoot -> 94 (I thought this was Carter’s number?)
No other rookies yet.
All the rookies have leaked out from the players themselves or Jersey Numbers socials. The others are:
Ray Davis #22
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger #62
Tylan Grable #68
Travis Clayton #67
Javon Solomon #56
DeWayne Carter #90
Edefuan Ulofoshio #48
Daequan Hardy #25
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I'm starting to get a little worried. But it's not about the Claypool signing. It's about Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and OBJ signing with other teams over the past two days.
Signings like Claypool and Cephus (and to a larger extent Hamler, as a mere Futures signing) to me are just Beane taking low risk, high reward chances in Training Camp with guys who have some traits, showed some talent at some point, and/or were high level Draft prospects that didn't work out elsewhere. If we signed Claypool now, on top of guys like Cephus, Smoot, and Jones - when we're sitting on like 3m (of which we also have to pay Draft picks with) - it's quite clearly for league minimum peanuts with no guarantees.
Claypool, Cephus, and Hamler to me represent guys who are more likely to end up on the Practice Squad or outright cut after Training Camp than making the 53. 1 of them has an outside shot of sticking on the bottom of the WR depth chart by beating out Justin Shorter if we keep 6 or simply sticking if we keep 7 guys (as we have done multiple times under this regime). None of them represent someone we're going to start, in my opinion. That hole still exists - especially if Beane's words of Coleman "is going to have a hard time starting right away for us" rings true. If Coleman isn't starting right out of the gate, we really have nothing to put out there to start the year. We'd be looking at like Hollins and Shorter, Hollins and Claypool, or Hollins and Cephus on the Outside, mixing in Samuel on half or less of the plays (as he's not a true Outside guy). I see no way of that happening.
Even with the Claypool signing, i'd still expect we make a move for the top of the depth chart on the Outside after 6/1. The issue is, I tend to believe Beane when he says he's not interested in trading premium Draft picks for the "privelage" of signing a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk to a MASSIVE long term 120+m long term contract, this offseason. Though i'd DEFINITELY be here for it happening. And Courtland Sutton is reportedly off the table when it comes to a short term, more manageable trade - as with the Drafting of Nix, they don't want to leave the cupboard bare for him and they've turned down overtures. This is where the signings of Gallup, Chark, and OBJ become worrying to me. When it comes to what we need (starting Outside WR), the well is getting dry and could get dryer by 6/1. And if BIG trades and Sutton are out... oof.
Right now, we're looking at guys like MVS, Michael Thomas, Zay Jones, Mecole Hardman, and Allen Robinson representing the best of what's left in the FA market on the Outside. Guys like Tyler Boyd and Hunter Renfrow are great, but they're pure slot guys. They'd only serve to take Shakir, Samuel, or Kincaid off the field and still leave the hole on the Outside. I suspect that's why they're still available. Slots are easier to come by, are mainly filled on teams, and/or teams aren't interested in what they'd cost for that role.
From that list, i'd lean towards an MVS or a Hardman. But maybe with the signings of multiple bigger names and higher talent level guys, relative to the bottom of the roster/PS, the idea is to bring a bunch of them in to try to find 1 guy who exceeds expectations from the pool of Claypool, Hamler, and Cephus - as insurance for an older, oft-injured player at the top of the roster like Michael Thomas.
Either way and long story short - I expect Claypool and Cephus aren't the last WR's we add. 6/1 and Tre's money was always the spot and time where I saw us adding a difference maker and we haven't got there yet. I wouldn't panic until we're heading into Training Camp or Week 1 with the same WR depth chart. Though the well drying up before that money comes in is becoming a real and worrying proposition.
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KJ Hamler is much like Andy Isabella last year. He's a guy who busted out of the team that Drafted him in Round 2, landed on a new team that ended up sticking him on the Practice Squad, and then decided not to retain him on a Futures Deal at the end of the year. We're his 3rd team in under 2 years.
Players like him (and Isabella, last season) have a stink on them that makes them practically a guarantee to not be poached to another teams 53 with another cut - regardless of how they look in the Pre-Season. He's a LONG shot to make the 53, unless we truly are set at Wide Receiver - which I HIGHLY suspect we aren't. They know they can cut him just like Isabella and easily get him back on the PS. He'd have to be undeniable to make the 53.
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20 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
This off season they've brought in Morrow and drafted LBer late combined with how almost secretive they have been about the Milano injury since day 1 while having a guy they liked enough to draft in Round 3 last year and Spector. And now this.
They aren't approaching the LBer room in a way that leads me to believe they think an All Pro LBer is returning at the start of the season. Not saying he's not, of course. Just taking a lot of bites at the LBer apple for a team that only plays 2 at a time (with some coverage on STs.)
I don't think signing guys like Morrow and Jones and spending a late 5th on a LB speaks to their concern of Milano's availability.
If there were concern there, they'd have done something more than these moves. Morrow and Jones are considered fringe players and Ulofoshio is a development player. You have to keep in mind that we lost Tyrel Dodson, Tyler Matakevitch, and AJ Klein this offseason. I don't see any way both Morrow and Jones make it to the 53.
Jones at this stage in his career is a Camp Battle body. He was traded to Cleveland along with a 7th Round Pick in exchange for a 6th in 2022. He signed with Carolina in 2023, didn't make the 53, and was re-signed to the Practice Squad.
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I see no route to Spector being cut. He is a core STer and they have lost guys in that room AND he played well when called upon at LB last year. Morrow is a bit more of a chance but I suspect he makes it.
The extremely recent addition of Deion Jones throws a wrinkle into the LB depth of the 53. Given his status as a player over the past couple seasons, he'll have to earn it as well. I tend to agree Spector has an edge and is most likely the 5th LB. I'll still believe we're keeping 6 when I see it though. Though it is possible if they feel Morrow is a key contributor on ST. If they do keep 6, it will be either Morrow or Jones.
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50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
Safeties fixed.
PS I used the positions listed on Spotrac. Williams is listed as a DE and Jonathan as a DT. It doesn’t really change much as Jonathan is likely to make to the team and Williams is in a huge camp battle.
And Von Miller is listed as a LB and Jordan Phillips as a DE. That's not what they are though. Spotrac can have Williams listed as DE and Jonathan listed as a DT - but that's not what they are either. Jonathan plays exclusively on the Edge and Williams plays exclusively in the Middle (unless in a 3-4 alignment, which we don't employ).
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16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
The way I see it QB, RB and TE are set. I think Coleman, Shakir, Samuel and Hollins are probably in at receiver. One or two spots left to shoot for. Back of the OL room is a battle. If they want to keep Grable I think he might have to go on the 53.
On defense back end of the DL is a competition. I reckon the top 4 DTs - Ed, Daquan, Johnson and Carter are set. I think at edge Groot, AJE, Von are set and Solomon is probably in to protect their investment (unless he looks way out of his depth then watch for the old Brandon Beane redhsirt IR special). That leaves 1 or 2 spots there for the rest. Linebackers I agree they will keep 6 and they are pretty set. I think Hardy is a lock at corner though. He was drafted to be a backup corner and their primary returner. He is in. Lewis will make it but as the 4th safety behind Bishop, Rapp and Edwards. Hamlin will be cut.
Good stuff as always from you.
I think we'll keep 6 WR's this year. We kept 5 last season, but that was an anomaly based on wanting to keep 12 DL's (which was an anomaly in and of itself as the number is usually 10). Every other year under this regime they've kept 6 and multiple years they've kept 7. I think we sign another veteran WR post 6/1 and then it ends up being a camp battle for the last spot with Justin Shorter having the edge, all things equal.
Agreed on the DL. I think we'll keep 5 DE's and 5 DT's. Everyone you listed is safe IMO. Leaves one DT spot that I think goes to DeShawn Williams and one DE spot which will be a battle between Casey Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan. I believe Toohill takes it as his experience and production is better than Jonathan's and I think they view Jonathan as a Brandin Bryant type that lives on the PS until there's an injury and if they lose him, they don't really sweat it. Like a Bryant or Ankou, he seems to always find his way back. Linebackers - they could keep 6. But I lean towards them keeping 5, with either Nicholas Morrow or Baylon Spector being the odd man out. The number is usually 5, 6 seems a little high, given we only employ 2 LB's on the field.
When it comes to OL, the number is usually 9. I don't see us keeping 5 OT's. I think it really comes down to either Grable impresses and takes to it quicker than expected - or he's cut and Collins is here. I don't think they're particularly concerned that someone's going to sign the 204th pick in the Draft to their 53 otherwise. I don't see us keeping 9-10 of our 10 Draft Picks. I think it will be 8, which is already a really high number for us (Grable and Clayton being out unless they are undeniable). Hardy, although taken after Grable, has an edge because there's a wide open spot for backup Nickel and KR/PR. I see Dawkins, Brown, Van Demark, and then either Collins or Grable (with Gouraige and Doyle Wild Cards) at OT. And for interior, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Van Pran, and then almost definitely Anderson - but he'll battle with the likes of Clapp, Clayton, and Bills.
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57 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
I was looking at some of the projections of the 53 man roster from the Rochester paper and the Athletic and some interesting camp battles become clear from their articles.
I think the roster looks something like this
Offense: 24 players (8 of 11 starters return)
QB - (2) Allen & Trubisky
RB - (4) Cook, Davis, Johnson, & Gilliam PS: Gore Jr
TE - (3) Kincaid, Knox, & Morris
WR - (6) Shakir, Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, Shorter, Hamler PS: Shavers, Cephus, Isabella
C - (2) McGovern & Van Pran Cut: Clapp (dead cap 287,500)
OG - (3) Edwards, Torrence, Anderson
OT - (4) Dawkins, Brown, Van Denmark, Collins PS: Grable, Clayton Cut: Doyle (dead cap 78391)
Defense: 26 players (8 of 11 starters return)
DT - (5) Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Carter & Jonathan PS: Ankou & Cline
DE/Edge (5) Rousseau, Epenesa, Miller, Solomon & Toohill PS/Cut: Williams
LB - (6) Milano, Bernard, Williams, Ulofoshio, Morrow, & Spector
CB - (6) T Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam, Lewis & Ingram PS: Hardy
S - (4) Bass (PK), Punter, Ferguson (LS)
The Battles
WR - Who will claim the last 2 spots - If I had to bet right now and if no other players are in the mix, I think management goes with Shorter and Hamler. Shorter has a dead cap hit of 243K. Hamler likely wins the PK job and therefore we keep 6 WRs instead of last year's 5
C/G - McGovern is penciled in a the starter at C after being the starter a G last year. If rookie Van Pran makes an impact in camp, I can see McGovern again going back to guard, sending Edwards to the bench. The other question is Clapp. His dead cap is 287.5K.
OT - I don;t think they'll be much of a battle for the OT backup jobs, but it will be interesting to see if Collins (dead cap 1.5 million) has anything left and whether any of the kids are worth while.
Defense
DT - The top 4 are written in stone, but the 5th slot is up for grabs between Jonathan, Ankou and Cline. I'm going to Jonathan
DE - Rookie Solomon is making the team as the 4th edge player. If we carry a 5th we should see a good battle between Williams and Toohill
LB - The top 3 are written in stone, but I can see 6 LBs on the 53 man roster as they invest in Morrow (750k dead cap), drafted Ulofoshio and Spector looked solid in limited reps. I think they keep all 6 as someone will certainly steal Spector if cut and sent to the PS.
CB - Top 4 set in stone. Lewis' versatility also makes him a lock. The question is can Hardy and/or Ingram show enough to earn a job.
S - Edwards and Rapp are the presumed starters, but I think Bishop has a good shot at unseating one of them. I also wonder if Beane brings in more help here and where does that leave Hamlin?
Punter battle - Martin, Haack & a UDFA. I'm rooting for the kid.
Very confused by listing Kingsley Jonathan as a DT and DeShawn Williams as a DE. Jonathan's a DE and Williams is a DT.
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It's like I said leading up to the Draft. Everyone was talking about all these packages to trade up and get Harrison or Nabers, as if it were as simple as just meeting the chart figures and it's a done deal.
When it came to those top picks, no one was going to give up the kind of talents that they took without an INSANE overpay. And this just goes to show, even with an insane overpay - they STILL turned it down.
We couldn't even touch the kind of offer Minnesota put forth. And it still wasn't enough.
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14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
We'd only have one 5th and two 6s but no 7th. Our original 5 belongs to the Eagles, via Houston as part of the Diggs trade. Our 7th was swapped for NYG's 6th in the Boogie trade. So if the comp formula does work out for us then I make it:
one 1st
two 2nds
one third
three 4ths
one 5th
two 6ths
10 picks total.
This is 100% correct. According to the go to Comp Guy for OverTheCap on Twitter, we would have had another 6th for Dane Jackson, but it was cancelled out with the Curtis Samuel signing.
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16 minutes ago, MJS said:
I disagree. I think Boyd can play outside and inside just like Shakir. He has the size.
If it isn't Boyd, I wouldn't even bother with any of the other receivers. They are all JAGs. Just roll with what we have outside of potentially adding camp bodies.
That's great that you think that. But that's not how the NFL works. It's like a fan saying they think a Guard can be converted to a Tackle, or a Nickel can be converted to a Boundary CB, a DT can be a Pass Rusher, a CB can be a Safety, etc.
Tyler Boyd has taken 81% of his total career snaps out of the Slot. And that's a swayed number as he did it a lot more in earlier seasons before they realized he wasn't suited for the role and has exclusively worked and succeeded from the Slot ever since.
He's even more of a Slot than Samuel is. Shakir is not an Outside WR either. Everyone wants to say he can play the role, but when we put him there in a pinch in the Playoffs when we were thin - he didn't produce.
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21 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:
I would be surprised if Buffalo grabbed another receiver. I'm only going based on what Beane has been saying about liking the WR room as it is. I think the fact that he didn't grab 2 guys in what was supposed to be a historically deep WR class tells me all I need to know about how he values that need.
I wouldn't. I expect it.
As I said before, Beane talks out of both sides of his mouth *constantly*. I've had egg on my face around here numerous times taking him at his word. It's common knowledge and a talking point around the board that Beane lies (as do all GM').
So why are we so willing to take his word as gospel now? Especially when the hole is so obvious and in my opinion, the only real spot on the roster that needs an addition - when we have over 10m coming in a month?
Him not taking more than one WR in the Draft doesn't mean what you think it does, in my opinion. As I stated above, we came into this Draft with everything in our core covered - save for 2 Starters on the Outside.
We took one in Coleman at 33. But with what was available at 60 and beyond, you weren't getting a replacement for the other side. Nor do I think they'd have wanted to start two Rookies, even if they could.
Anyone Drafted at 60 or beyond would have only served to replace Justin Shorter (and whomever could potentially beat out Shorter) on the bottom of the roster, behind Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, and Hollins. They wouldn't have filled the hole we had adequately for this season, so they didn't bother.
The top remaining veteran FA (or someone who becomes available via surprise cut or manageable trade) can fill that role now. And I'd be shocked if he left it bare.
10 minutes ago, MJS said:I guess that leaves just Tyler Boyd for me.
It won't be Tyler Boyd. Or Hunter Renfrow for that matter.
The hole is on the Perimeter. Boyd is a PURE Slot. We have more than we need there with Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid. Adding Boyd would just crowd that room more and remove reps from all those guys - while still leaving a gaping hole on the Outside needing to be filled.
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18 minutes ago, Taro Nimbus said:
Jesus….with what money are we gonna be able to get some of these dudes???
You are aware that we get 10.2m on 6/1 from releasing Tre White and also saved some on the cap from trading out of Round 1, right?
Come 6/1 we will have some money to spend and there will be guys available.
6 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:Not that it’s that important, but Gallup signed with the Raiders for up to 3 million. It’s interesting to see the going rate for a guy of his caliber.
Damn. He is one of the top options available. Cross him off the list then.
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Here comes an on brand for me long winded reply lol
Everything on this list is 100% set or more than likely set (in my opinion) - save for one position.
RB:
James Cook #4
Ray Davis
Ty Johnson #26
Frank Gore Jr.
Darrynton Evans #37- Likely, we only keep 3 RB's on the 53 to go along with Reggie Gilliam at FB. Cook and Davis stand firmly atop the 53, after Cook's Pro Bowl season and spending a relatively high (especially for the RB position) on Davis.
Ty Johnson earned the RB3 job last season and that's what we signed him for. Frank Gore Jr. signed here in my opinion as he's almost guaranteed, at least, a spot on the Practice Squad with us. Evans is our journeyman vet camp body that may also join Gore on the PS. We're set there, in my opinion. Any addition here wouldn't be a big one.
OL:
Dion Dawkins #73
David Edwards #76
Connor McGovern #66
O'Cyrus Torrence #64
Spencer Brown #79
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La'el Collins #71
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
Ryan Van Demark #74
Alec Anderson #70
Will Clapp #77
Tylan Grable
Tommy Doyle #72
Travis Clayton
Keaton Bills
Richard Gouraige #75
Kevin Jarvis #63
Gunner Britton
Mike Edwards- We're 1000% set on OL. We currently have *18* players on the roster and will probably only keep half of them. As it is, we're going to be cutting some veterans of the team, FA signings from this offseason, and/or late round Draft Picks.
Dawkins, Brown, and Van Demark will be 3 of our 4 tackles. Leaving only one spot open for either Collins, Grable, Doyle, or Gouraige.
McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Van Pran-Granger, and Anderson seem obvious as 5 Interior locks or pretty close to locks. And we're likely to only keep 5.
CB:
Rasul Douglas #31
Christian Benford #47
Taron Johnson #7
Kaiir Elam #5
Daequan Hardy
Ja'Marcus Ingram #46
Kyron Brown #32
Keni-H Lovely
Travis Blackshear- I think it's *possible* we add another CB. But I think it's likely, if not more than likely, they feel we're set there. At times, we've kept 6, but we kept 5 last season.
Douglas and Benford are our starters on the Boundary, with Elam coming off the bench in case of an injury. Taron Johnson will start at Nickel, with Hardy backing him up.
Cam Lewis was handed a decent sized pay increase on a new deal, mainly for his versatility. I think he'll be listed as a Safety. But if there are two injuries at Perimeter or Nickel, I think they'd turn to him. They also like Ingram, who has been in the system for years now. He lives on the PS, but has shown promise when called on in a pinch.
S:
Cole Bishop #24
Mike Edwards #21
Taylor Rapp #20
Cam Lewis #33
Damar Hamlin #3
Kendall Williamson #36- Generally, we keep 4 here. Though I think it will be technically 5 this season - with the aforementioned Cam Lewis as depth at both CB and Safety in the event of either position having multiple injuries.
In Bishop, who we spent a big premium Draft Pick for the position on and is the future and possibly even the present of the position, Edwards, and Rapp - we have 3 talent capable players at the top of the chart for 2 positions.
If one goes down, the odd man out would come in. If two went down, Lewis would come in. Maybe they replace Hamlin as the 5th Safety, but you're not getting or paying for a substantial player there for such a minimal role and likely to get a similar player in value to Hamlin. So i'd imagine they'd just keep him there and see if he can get better after a transition year last year.
DE:
Von Miller #40
Greg Rousseau #50
AJ Epenesa #57
Casey Toohill #95
Javon Solomon
Kingsley Jonathan #59
Kameron Cline #96
David Ugwoebgu- I hear DE brought up more than any other position but WR. But like CB, I think it's more likely they think they're set there after re-signing Epenesa to a bigger contract, stealing the sack leader in the FBS in Solomon where we took him, signing Toohill (not a sexy name, but a productive reserve), and retaining Jonathan.
Generally, we only keep 4 to 5 there. We kept 6 last year, but that was an anomaly because of Miller's injury and the guys we had under contract. This year, I see us keeping 5. I know everyone's worried about Miller. But I expect a better Miller this season and I believe they do too.
Will he be what he was before the ACL? That I don't know. But we're going to get a better version than we got last season. This is his last season here. Everyone is writing him off and his career is over if he doesn't get better. That's a *lot* of motivation for one of the greatest of all time. He's surely working his tail off right now and will be afforded an actual offseason and Training Camp to get up to speed, over a year removed from injury.
In the event he doesn't fully return to form, that's why we paid what we did to get Epenesa back. Either Miller returns to form and starts, with Epenesa being 3rd in rotation or Miller can't start, Epenesa does, and Miller is a reserve. I don't see them viewing anyone but Groot, Miller, and Epenesa as their top 3 guys.
Beyond that, Javon Solomon will surely have a spot on the 53. We don't outright cut 5th Rounders (and he shouldn't have lasted that long) and given his production in College, he has HUGE upside and is not a player I envision them thinking they can sneak on their PS.
That leaves one roster spot for Toohill or Jonathan. Given when we signed Toohill, his production as a reserve, and the role he would have here - I feel they think Toohill is the perfect guy for 4th or 5th DE on the roster. Small chance Jonathan beats him out. But I think they view him a Brandin Bryant type. A guy that lives on our PS and gets called up after 1 injury. If someone else signs him, good for him. But he seems to always find his way back here.
DT:
Ed Oliver #91
Daquan Jones #92
DeWayne Carter
Austin Johnson #98
DeShawn Williams #99
Eli Ankou #51
Branson Deen
Rondell Bothroyd- This will be much quicker than DE. We're completely set here. We'll keep 5 DT's. In Oliver, Jones, Carter, and Johnson we have our starters and immediate backups at 3T and 1T SOLIDLY covered. DeShawn Williams will stick as our 5th. Done.
That leads us to the one spot where I see it being almost a sure thing we'll add to, possibly with someone from your list....
WR:
Keon Coleman #0
Curtis Samuel #1
Khalil Shakir #10
Mack Hollins #13
Justin Shorter #18
Quintez Cephus #81
Andy Isabella #87
K.J. Hamler #19
Tyrell Shavers #80
Bryan Thompson #89
Xavier Johnson Jr.
Lawrence Keys- We went into this Draft with everything covered except for replacements to Diggs and Davis at the Starting Outside spots. Samuel replaces Harty, Hollins replaces Sherfield - with Shakir returning as one (of our many) main Slot's.
In Coleman, they got their guy for one of those spots. But with the only other spot to replace on the 53 being the other starter and with what was left at 60 and beyond for Outside WR's (combined with them likely not wanting to start two Rookies), they didn't take another.
I know everyone's panicking after what Beane said. But he goes back on his word constantly. He said similar things last season about our DE room.... then he signed Leonard Floyd in June.
While I do tend to believe that he doesn't want to spend premium Draft Picks for the privilege to sign a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk to a MONSTER long term contract - I see it as close to a 0% chance that we don't use some of Tre's money to sign one of the top remaining Outside WR's or trade for one that is on a manageable short term contract.
Beane himself said that Coleman will be eased in and "will have a hard time starting at the beginning of the season". If that's the case, then what? Samuel is a great weapon, but he's a mainly Inside guy that takes minimal outside reps. He's not and has never been someone who plays on the Outside predominantly. Beane's words have confirmed that, calling him a "weapon" and not a Starting Outside guy.
So we'd be Starting Hollins on the Outside (yick) and... who? Shorter? No way. We're currently in a spot that where our only True Outside WR's are Coleman, Hollins, Shorter, and a myriad of Practice Squad or out of the league guys. I don't care what he's saying now, I would be absolutely floored if we didn't add on the Outside.
Tyler Boyd and Hunter Renfrow are Pure Slots. And with Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid either playing exclusively or in the VAST majority in the Slot - we're absolutely set there. So it won't be one of them. But one of Gallup, OBJ, Chark, MVS, and Thomas are 1000% in play. Who knows who else could surprisingly become available via surprise cut or surprise trade. But don't panic in April. I expect the Leonard Floyd to the DE room from last season to come to the WR room before Week 1.
That would give us Coleman, (FA/Trade Outside Addition), and Hollins on the Outside. Shakir and Samuel in the Slot/Z Flex. Leaving us one (maybe 2 if we feel like keeping 7 as we've done a couple times in the past) roster spot(s) that will come down to a battle between Shorter, Cephus, Hamler, Isabella, and the rest of the UDFA/PS pack - with Shorter having the edge if all things are equal, being a 5th Round investment.
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If the season started immediately after the Draft or we had a crystal ball that said there won't be any more additions before Week 1 - then, no. We wouldn't have done enough.
But it's only April. And we still have 10+m coming in a month. I've justifiably taken flack and embarrassed myself in the past for having taken Beane at face value when he's said things (ie Nyheim Hines and Stefon Diggs not going anywhere). So why are we all ready to accept his word as gospel now?
Last season, he said the same type of things about liking our Defensive End room. Then he went and signed Leonard Floyd in June.
Ultimately, what I see it coming down to was that looking at what we've done this offseason with Samuel replacing Harty and Hollins replacing Sherfield (and having a 5th Round Pick in Shorter coming off Redshirt from Last Season, to go along with Shakir) - we had the core covered outside of the starters on the Boundary - needing replacements for Diggs and Davis.
Acquiring two WR's in the Draft that you'd feel comfortable both starting really wasn't feasible. You could get one, which we did in Coleman (whether you're a fan of him or not, that was who the brass and Josh wanted and believed in). Even if we could have, this brass is too conservative to trust both starting spots to young men with no experience at the NFL level.
From Pick 60 onwards - 11 WR's had already come off the board and there was no one available that i'd feel comfortable starting on the Outside, let alone them. Anyone drafted from 60 onwards would simply be someone who would replace Hollins or Shorter - underneath Shakir and Samuel on the bottom of the roster and with limited reps.
Could you argue that we should have moved on from Shorter without him developing after his redshirt year and after spending a 5th on him last year? Or replaced Hollins a month after signing him? That's a fair conversation to have. But throwing investments away generally isn't his M.O. (whether you agree with it or not).
But I digress. I feel it ultimately came down to them deciding not so much that we were good to go after Drafting Coleman. But that the only other unaccounted for hole left in the core was better served with another vet than another Rookie, especially with what was left at 60 and beyond.
I expect that to come from a Free Agent or a Trade for someone on a short term contract that wouldn't cost a fortune in Draft Compensation or money. While I wouldn't be opposed to something like Higgins or Aiyuk - I do tend to believe he's not lying when he says he's not interested in trading premium picks for the privelage of handing out a new long term contract at the kind of money they would cost this year.
Whether you feel something like adding a Michael Gallup, Odell Beckham Jr., DJ Chark, Michael Thomas, MVS, or Mecole Hardman is still not enough or not - i'd expect at least that, regardless of what he said at the Post-Draft presser.
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There's no hole, let alone a "giant one" at Safety. Cole Bishop, as he stated in his Presser, plays both positions. He said the Defense he played in (much like ours) didn't even really have a traditional Strong v. Free designation. Stating he played on the Left Side or the Right Side.
Subsequently, Rapp also has some versatility. Last season, he filled in for both Poyer and Hyde depending who was missing time.
Between Bishop, Edwards, and Rapp - they'll have both positions covered. They value versatile DB's. If they felt that Bishop, Edwards, and Rapp were only capable of playing one side, they wouldn't have brought in all 3.
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27 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Just a few days. I believe the comp pick deadline is 4 pm May 1
As far as what Chark would cost, I imagine that's why he's still on the market. in 2022, he signed 1 year, $10M with Detroit. They can't say they got their money's worth with 11 games, 53 targets, 502 yds.
Then he signed 1 year, $5M with Carolina. 66 targets for 525 yds not much better value for that.
My guess is that Chark wants something similar, which is why teams are holding back.
Thank you for that. I had been looking on Google to find info on when the Comp Formula ended during the Offseason and couldn't find it anywhere. So I just assumed it was 6/1, like the money changing deadline in contracts.
If it's only a few days away, then it would make even less sense to do a 3.5+m signing right now. And the type of FA signing people were short sightedly hoping for or expecting from Beane's quick comment at the presser is going to be that.
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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:
I appreciate how much the goal posts have changed in this discussion. Before the draft it was "we don't need a WR with our first pick, there will be guys at #60 and in later rounds that will be better value." Instead the next WR taken after our 2nd round pick was taken at #80 (because the 2nd round talents were snatched up much earlier, as easily predicted) and the Bills didn't like any of the other guys enough to take them with our later picks. Then it became "there are still vets in free agency or available for trade!" So much for that, apparently camp bodies is all we can afford. Finally we've made it to "Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter are a better WR5 than people think." The usual suspects that were defending the WR room last year are defending the even worse WR room this year.
Whoa, whoa, whoa! You're misreading into what I said. I don't know how you're getting all of that because I never said ANY of it.
I was NOT saying the WR room is fine with my post and that we shouldn't add anyone else.
What I was saying was that a few minutes after the Draft, Beane saying during a presser "we worked out a guy today we're going to end up signing" always implied it was someone who wasn't a name signing like a DJ Chark or someone along those lines.
Like I said - healthy, productive just last season, name players don't "work out". And if they did do that, it wouldn't be on Draft Day. That's a situation of talking to assistants and being worked out by positional coaches with Beane not having time to meet with them and probably just reviewing a tape and taking others word that they're good. Someone we're paying millions to, Beane is going to dedicate some time to seeing in person and meeting with before committing publicly to signing them.
It was clearly someone who is on the fringe, someone who needs to prove they're healthy, or someone who was out of football for a year or more for us to "work them out". In this case, it was the latter.
Also, we've got like 3m in Cap Space right now. Someone like Chark or like him is going to cost more than that. Also, to do it now instead of a little over a month from now would cost us a Comp pick.
So anything like that will come after June 1st or at least when the Comp qualifying contract deadline ends. And I do hope we look into adding someone at that point. My post was just to say that if you really analyzed the situation from all angles, thinking that statement meant it was going to be one of the name FA left was to be short sightedly setting yourself up for disappointment. It was obvious to me with what was said it was going to be something like this.
But he doesn't preclude us from signing someone like a DJ Chark on or after 6/1 and I would expect that we would.
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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
It's my own fault. When Beane said they were in the process of signing someone I envisioned DJ Chark or something along those lines, not an above average WR by any means but a baseline outside WR that at least gives us better pass catching ability than Mack Hollins. I should have known better.
The phrase "we worked out a guy today" meant it was always going to be a Camp Body type guy. You don't "work out" healthy, still producing, name FA's.
What sense does it make to sign Mack Hollins sight unseen and then decide that DJ Chark (or someone along those lines) has to prove themselves in a workout? And why would Beane bring in a DJ Chark on the Day of the Draft?
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12 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Doesn't make sense.
They're paying Hollins $2.6M for one year. They paid Kumerow $1.1M.
The reason for the difference there is that they expected very little offense from Kumerow, and more from Hollins. He generally gets around 30% of the team's offensive snaps or more, if you look at his history.
And outside of 2022 in Las Vegas, in his 5 other years in the league - he averages 15 catches and 202 yards a year.
He's more of a blocker (which is important) and Special Teams player (which was the focus of discussion in his Presser when we signed him) than a key contributor on Offense. If we're relying on Mack Hollins for a big role as a producer on Offense - that's an issue to me.
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21 minutes ago, Kmart128 said:
Chase Claypool is an interesting name. Still super young. Had a good start to his career. Then got buried on depth chart in Chicago and Pittsburgh and hasn't had much of an opportunity since. I wonder if Josh Allen could revive the start of his career
Claypool I could see having to be "worked out". His career is kind of nowhere and he really is in the "need to prove myself again" stage. Like I said, I just don't see a bigger named, healthier WR feeling like they need to do essentially a tryout or that we'd feel they'd need to workout for us.
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7 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:
During his end of draft press conference Beane mentioned they worked out a WR today they will end up signing. Regardless of them drafting a wideout to play the boundary I've fully expected the Bills to bring in another boundary WR post draft. So who is it? Given the Brady connections I've expected OBJ or Michael Thomas. Any other thoughts on who it may be?
I don't know that it's a bigger name. Maybe Thomas would be an exception to see what kind of shape he's in following ending the year on Injured Reserve and being injury plagued throughout the years.
But when it comes to bigger name, healthy WR's who played last year and weren't injured like an Odell Beckham Jr., DJ Chark, Michael Gallup, or someone like that - you don't usually "work them out" or do a physical try out. "Working someone out" sounds like a smaller named, lower tier, compete for a roster spot type guy to me.
I also wouldn't expect we'd be signing anyone with name value until 6/1. Reason being two fold: 1.) We only have about 3.5m right now and have to sign our Draft Picks (which won't be much but will still cut into that) and 2.) Signing one of the bigger names right now instead of a little over a month from now would likely be at a number that would cancel out one of our two projected Comp picks next season.
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32 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Marquise Goodwin because so many here need the speed.
Hollins is not only an STs guy. He'll be playing WR on a bunch of snaps unless something goes wrong in some way.
He does play STs, but he has 1086 STs snaps to 2699 on offense.
I view him as playing more Special Teams here. He'll get relief snaps off the bench and be depth in case of injury. But I view him in more of the Kumerow role for us. He'll probably get a little more snaps than Kumerow, but I don't want to be relying on Mack Hollins for much of a role on Offense - unless we have to.
OBJ To Miami
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by BillsFanForever19
We don't know that he didn't talk to Odell or his people. We don't often hear about anything from One Bills Drive unless the player signs. I could easily see a scenario where OBJ would choose South Beach over Buffalo.