BillsFanForever19
-
Posts
6,153 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by BillsFanForever19
-
-
3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:
But the risk is Claypool makes it and then slowly turns back to his old self. For instance Claypool makes it as the 4th or 5th WR but is upset because he feels he is better than Coleman.
The unrest could be slow and start with confiding in one other player who thinks similar thoughts - maybe Davis thinks he is outplaying Cook. It may not be an easy thing to catch on to.
Then you cut him. Simple as that.
This idea that a guy who's on his last opportunity and is playing for the last spot in the WR room could be a "cancer" is a laughable take. He literally can't be and he knows it.
He won't have an important enough role on the team behind Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, and (most likely) MVS to be able to make any sort of waves or problems.
If he starts showing any signs of being a problem, he's out of here and we elevate Shorter or Hamler from the Practice Squad to take the minimal role he'd have on the team.
-
4
-
1
-
2
-
-
2 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:
Sounds like McDermott is pretty optimistic with Claypool, so doubt we do anything June 1. More likely, wait and see what happens in camp with this ragtag group.
The MVS signing gave me more hope and if Claypool has his head on straight again, we could have a pick your poison type WR committee, where a different guy steps up each game. It will certainly be harder for DCs to gameplan for us to take away our one strength (considering we don't have one!)
He'll need to play where Kincaid plays though, lined up inside against LBs or slot WRs. He'll get manhandled outside by bigger NFL CBs
Any more additions went out the window with the signing of MVS, in my opinion. If they were going to go with something more, they wouldn't have signed him, after Drafting Coleman and (to a lesser extent) signing Claypool.
We lost 4 WR's. We brought in 5 between FA and the Draft. And that doesn't take into account Futures/PS players like Hamler, last year's 5th Round Pick in Shorter coming off redshirt, and UDFA's.
Keon Coleman replaces Diggs as the 'X', MVS replaces Davis, Curtis Samuel (greatly) replaces Harty, and Mack Hollins replaces Sherfield. Leaving Claypool, Shorter, Hamler, Isabella, and the rest of the field battling for one spot - the rest being cut.
-
1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:
Great, found a deal on a carcinogen. Maybe next we can find some cheap asbestos.
He's not going to show a poor attitude in camp, how stupid do you think he is? It's once the injustice of Coleman getting more game time than Claypool starts to materialize, then the locker room cancer starts to form. Various forms of this cancer have followed Claypool through his travels.
We just had major surgery to clear the Diggs virus so forgive some of us for being a little jumpy when they introduce a toxin into the locker room
He was worth the risk because he either carries himself how he should, or he'd be cut as quickly as Quintez Cephus was. He can't afford to have an ego or be a problem. He's on an incredibly short leash and has to earn a roster spot and prove he's changed.
Even if he makes it, I see it being a tight race. So if this is a mask he's wearing now and he let's it slip in season, we're going to have guys like KJ Hamler, Andy Isabella, and/or Justin Shorter in the Practice Squad that will replace him just as quickly.
-
-
11 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Somewhat of a long read but worth your time.
One nugget that I found interesting:
There's a much publicized quote from Beane after the draft where he said something to the effect of "it will be hard for Coleman to start from day one." This is the messaging the team always puts out there for their rookies to hear. But he let slip their real plans in the chaos of draft weekend - Coleman is going to be the early favorite for the starting X receiver. And based on this article I think he's going to quickly earn the trust of the coaching staff and win that role.
Great find @HappyDays!
And I'm thrilled to hear the famous quote of "Coleman will have a hard time starting at the beginning of the year" was just a lip service one liner.
MVS, Hollins, Claypool, and Shorter battling over 1 starting spot on the Outside makes me feel a LOT better than starting two from that pool to start the year.
-
9 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
Which players whose careers have entered a downturn but are being given a second/third/fourth chance on their NFL careers on the 2024 Bills (what I would call reclamation projects) will work out and be productive and which will be busts? I think all good teams take on a few and get some production from bargain shopping so to speak.
Here is my list.
Hits:
- Duwane Smoot - This was a player who was very good from 2019 to 2022 a consistent 5-6 sack a year player with the Jags whose advanced metrics were also mostly good (I know PFF is flawed but he had 68 and 70 grades in 2021 and 2022 to go along with good pass rush win rate stats). The reason he's a reclamation project is due to an Achilles injury in late 2022 (week 16). That led to Smoot coming back to the Jags on a 1 year deal in 2023 and starting the season on the PUP list. Smoot's 2023 was not very good with just 1 sack and poor advanced metrics. I think a year further removed from injury he has a good chance to take the Shaq Lawson rotational snaps and have a better season.
- La'el Collin - Collins was a really good player at guard and RT for the Cowboys particularly from 2017-2021. He signed as a free agent with the Bengals in 2022 in an attempt to overhaul an offensive line that was terrible. Collins in 2022 had a nagging back injury that really held him back in 2022 and then he had a really bad ACL/MCL injury in late 2022. He didn't play much in 2023 only signing on late in season with the Cowboys as a member of the PS. Now going into 2024 he's going to be 1 year 9 months removed from the 2022 injury and I think he's going to be a key component to the teams bench on the offensive line and might start at LG outright if he outshines Edwards and SVPG needs a year to develop at center.
- Austin Johnson - Not the most dramatic reclamation project but still someone coming off two down years in his career. I think he's going to occupy those Tim Settle/Jordan Phillips rotational snaps more effectively. Johnson was playing in a poor scheme fit in LA plus Johnson got hurt in 2022. I think he may have one more good season playing in a scheme more similar to his better years in Tennessee and with the Giants.
- Von Miller - Bills had no choice but to bring Von back as he was willing to restructure his deal. I don't think he regains his 2022 form but I think he can have a nice season 8-10 sacks on a good pressure rate. Von just was not good in 2023 but as the season wore on especially after the bye he started to flash a little. Hoping another off-season to heal and maybe with a new incentive laden contract he kind of gives the team the production that Floyd gave them but more evenly spread out.
Busts:
- Deion Jones - Jones is a low risk signing and I like it but I think he's just not that good anymore. He was on the decline in Atlanta his last year there a past two years has bounced around to two teams in the Browns and Panthers neither stint he was that great. Now on the Bills I think he's a late camp cut.
- Chase Claypool - Another rather low risk signing but one I don't see working out. Claypool is just 25 and has tremendous talent. Claypool has even produced really well his first two years in the league with 800+ yards in back to back seasons. He was traded to Chicago and then to Miami a year later, neither stop he produced well despite being in a situation in Miami where he had a decent QB, good system and two stud WR's to take attention and give him single coverage. I know Claypool is on what is effectively his last chance so that might be motivation but if a player is a ***** head under achiever that rarely turns around. Rooting for him but I don't think this project is going to work out.
- Tommy Doyle/Andy Isabella/KJ Hamler/Matt Haack - Not really players that are of much significance but guys the Bills are "kicking the tires on" who were former high draft picks (Isabella and Hamler) or have had past stints with the team (Haack and Doyle) none are more than camp body PS candidates to me.
So who will be the player to turn things around on the Bills this season and who won't?
I don't really consider Smoot or Johnson reclamation projects.
-
5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
The Bills were supposed to be getting Sherfield and Harty's best years too. It was just a given to people like @Orlando Buffalo. I mean........they had never had a QB like Josh Allen. Right?
I, admittedly, bit on them too. Perhaps out of necessity because he didn't bring in similar type players as competition for them and in doing so (or not doing so) had me feeling like he knew they were going to work. He was wrong and so was I.
I'm glad that this year he's not doing the same thing in just handing unheralded players spots on the 53. MVS, Hollins, Shorter (his Draft investment from last year), Claypool, and Hamler all battle for 3 slots - with 2 being cut.
It's a better approach. Claypool will be handed nothing and will have to earn it, unlike Harty and Sherfield before him.
-
1
-
-
53 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
I very rarely... Will make a thread dedicated to a guard
But after drafting this mountain of a man last season... And him playing every single snap last season
Read that again... Every single snap last season... The only Buffalo Bill to do so
I had to go back and rewatch... O'Cyrus
Now it's typical for any rookie lineman have ups and downs... They ebb and flow
But the size and power with the short area burst he displayed was excellent... People talk about some right guards playing in a phone booth... Because the condensed area and need for quickness
But he is the phone booth... A true old school Right guard... Who is thick enough to anchor yet has hands that counter hard
He looks every bit like a multiple Time pro bowler who will be able to move the LoS in a game of inches
The bills nailed their top two picks last season but in a league with a shortage of great lineman
This pic hits as an A++
It was insane to me that he was available at the end of Round 2. He was a 1st Round talent, one that was discussed at length as possibly being our 1st selection. I know Guard is a slightly devalued position, but his floor was as a pick at the top of Round 2. Absolute steal.
-
1
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Meh. This season is all about Levis. It’s the “prove to us we shouldn’t draft a QB next year seasons.
DHOP has no chance of being moved right now. By week 8, who knows?
Exactly. So they're going to give him the best tools to succeed to evaluate him. Thus, replacing Burks with Ridley in the Starting Lineup Outside and adding Tyler Boyd in the Slot.
Mid season? Yes, that's a completely different story. Anything's possible. The Titans could go 0-7, Will Levis could fall on his face or get injured, a light could go on for Burks and he starts looking like the guy they thought they Drafted.
But I'm just talking about right now. Hopkins isn't going anywhere.
-
1
-
-
McDermott is impressed. He's working hard, saying all the right things, and approaching this with the right mindset.
I see us keeping 6. Coleman, Samuel, Shakir (those 3, obviously), MVS, and Hollins are locked in. In my mind, it was Shorter and Claypool in a battle for WR6 - with Shorter having a leg up all things equal being a 5th Round investment.
But if Claypool's work ethic and mindset are top tier, it's probably going to be an uphill battle for Shorter.
-
1
-
1
-
-
Hopkins is a wear his thoughts on his sleeve type of guy. He's uncharacteristically honest. Marches to the beat of his own drum. He didn't say anything everyone else hasn't already thought or is thinking after watching Burks the past couple seasons. Just wild to hear him say it. Maybe he's trying to light a fire under the kid?
Either way, this is the exact reason I see close to a zero chance Hopkins is moved. They Drafted Burks to be AJ Brown's replacement. Year 1, he puts up 444 yards and 1 TD as a starter. They realized he wasn't ready, so they went out and got Hopkins - hoping he'd grow with someone else taking coverage away. And Year 2 for Burks with Hopkins? He puts up 221 yards and 0 TD's. Yikes!
Realizing they're absolutely nowhere with him and he absolutely cannot be a Starter again this year, they sign Calvin Ridley to a big contract to replace him. They sign Tyler Boyd to be their Slot. Now they have a Top 5-10 WR core in the league for Levis with Hopkins and Ridley Outside and Boyd Inside.
Burks is busting harder than any WR in recent memory to the point that he's being publicly called out by teammates. And people think they're going to trade away Hopkins and put him back in the Starting Lineup? No way.
Either they keep Burks and hope he develops as a late bloomer in a reserve role or they get rid of him. Hopkins isn't going anywhere.
-
1
-
-
14 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:
I think Beane and the FO have done a great job of creating low expectations. They've allowed, even promoted, the lowered expectations behind this cap problem while avoiding the criticism that this is an issue they created.
You're right, seems pretty easy at June 1st with the $10M Tre money and a couple restructures (which could potentially include Josh as well) that they would easily have over $15M which seems enough to afford either Metcalf or Aiyuk - who happen to be my top two hopes.
Look at the advantages of adding one of Metcalf/Aiyuk
Entire offensive playmakers set for years - Josh 4+yrs, Metcalf/Aiyuk new contract 4+, Kincaid 4, K Coleman 4, Samuel 3, Shakir 2, Cook 2, Davis 4,Knox2
All playmakers would be younger than Josh, easy to see Josh as the leader in Phase 2
No worries about players aging out. All players younger than Josh who is 28 (today, Happy Birthday Josh)
This addition makes a case for year over year improvement: Metcalf/Aiyul > Diggs, C Samuel/K Coleman > G Davis, Shakir24 > Shakir23, Kincaid24>Kincaid23. It all comes together. It all makes sense. It was Beane's plan all along (the guy is good).
This is the disconnect for me. It's one thing to say "I think he should make a trade". Or have hope that he does.
It's the definitive expectation that he will and claiming that a trade is "Beane's plan all along", that I disagree. You condemn other posters for thinking they know how Beane operates (based on historical evidence, no less)... and then claim to know how Beane is going to operate.
I think the plan was to specifically NOT have a high priced, big star WR with a "just give me the damn ball" attitide that Josh feels he needs to force it to or they're going to get upset. To not have 1 WR specifically that the Defense wants to take away. He spoke of wanting to create a room where week to week, the #1 could be interchangable. These are things, some of which, he said directly on the Chris Long Podcast:
I believe this year, he looks at the guys that the Offense was run through down stretch (Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, James Cook) as potentially still the top guys. It's about evaluating their progressions in Years 2 and 3 and seeing if they take a step forwards. He wants to see what Keon Coleman looks like as a Rookie and what Curtis Samuel brings - both long term investments.If any of those guys (Kincaid, Coleman, Shakir, Samuel) step up to be a #1 Guy, than there's no need for a big name guy next year and wouldn't have been a need for one this year. So I don't see them investing in one before then, the earliest being mid season if it isn't working out or there's injuries. To do so now would be to limit reps on guys that he's evaluating as possibly being "the guy".
And ultimately, it boils down to what we lost and what he's done already. We lost 4 guys this offseason. We brought in 5 guys this offseason. And that doesn't even count 2023 Draft Pick Justin Shorter coming off his redshirt Rookie year, Futures, and UDFA additions.
We lost Deonte Harty. He was replaced (greatly) by Curtis Samuel. We lost Trent Sherfield. He was replaced by Mack Hollins. Going into the Draft, we needed replacements for Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. They spent their first pick on Keon Coleman to replace one.
Post Draft, the question I had was "does Keon Coleman replace Stef or Gabe?". If he replaces Gabe, we'd probably do something bigger. If he replaces Stefon, we'll probably sign a FA like MVS or Michael Thomas. Then we signed MVS and Beane called Coleman "The X" on the Podcast. Question answered, WR core finalized.
To bring in a 6th roster worthy WR this offseason just seems unrealistic. There's 5 guys who are locked in already and we only carried 5 last season. As it is, guys like Claypool and Shorter are on the outside looking in. He's not
Would I be opposed? No. But to say you expect it and it's "the plan"? I think you're definitely setting yourself up for disappointment.
-
46 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:
Do people think Von Miller is this high up the depth chart? We're stuck with his contract, but I'd guess they'll be looking for a reason to put him on IR, just to free up a roster spot for someone like Jonathon.
If they weren't going to give him another legitimate shot or had visions of him starting the year lower than DE3 - they would have a.) just outright cut him with a Post 6/1 designation and b.) Would have gotten a bigger chess piece at DE in Free Agency or the Draft by now.
Beane believes that like Tre White before him - he needs a full year removed from the injury and a full offseason of Training Camp and Pre-Season and we'll see some improvement. He also spoke of thinking he may have rushed him back too soon.
Will Von return to pre-injury form? That's a big if. But can he be at least a decent DE3? They're banking on it, both figuratively and literally.
-
15 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
Looking over the FA lost and it's not stocked full of difference makers...as can be expected this time of year. A few names I'm looking at that could be in the mix. I'm looking at the EDGE position as even with the rookie I feel like it's still a spot that could use a boost.
Shaq Lawson- an obvious choice. Solid yet unspectacular. But they know what they would be getting.
Carl Lawson- Could have something left in the tank after being mothballed by the Jets last year. Feel like he's got something to prove... especially if he were to line up against the Jets.
Emmanuel Ogbah- Buffalo has shown interest in him in the past. Could they do what they did with John Brown and others and circle back to grab him at a value?
Jerry Hughes- 12 sacks over the last 2 years in Houston. Would maybe be good as a rotational rusher.
Lawson's been replaced with Dawuane Smoot, who through production and experience is an upgrade from him. As such, he cost us more. We gave Shaq about a million. Smoot is being paid 2.5 with just about 2 guaranteed.
He's someone I see etched in pen as the 4th or 5th DE. He's also who I expect Beane to have decided is the DE addition everyone expected. I think he evaluated what's left and decided that was his guy from that (gross) group, for what he was looking for and what he was looking to pay.
As I said, we're going to keep 5. Groot, Von, and AJ are clearly the top 3 guys. He's not paying Von or AJ what he's paying them for either to be the 4th DE in the rotation. If he didn't feel AJ could step up and be the guy to replace Von in the event he can't go - he wouldn't have brought him back and paid him what he paid him.
Solomon was a steal in the 5th. We don't outright cut players we Drafted before Round 6. He'll be here. And that's your 5 guys right there - Groot, Von, Epenesa, Smoot, Solomon. If he wanted someone from your list, he wouldn't have signed Smoot or given him anything guaranteed.
As it is, we'll be cutting Toohill and Jonathan. I don't see a 5th DE move this offseason that would see him moving on from 2 of the 5 guys he'd have acquired - especially when one has some guaranteed money (we've moved on from a guaranteed money FA only once in OJ Howard), the other is a Draft Pick above Round 6 or 7, and the list of guys left aren't much of an upgrade, if any at all, beside having a more known name.
-
2
-
-
7 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:
Some sort of pass rusher.
Rousseau, AJ, Von as your top 3 isn't good enough IMO.
Hoping for a similar situation last year when they signed Leonard Floyd
When it comes to Defensive End, it feels a lot like WR for me. People don't like the choices he made and want more, but that doesn't change the fact that he made the moves he made and those guys aren't going anywhere.
They aren't paying what they're paying Von and AJ what they are for either to be anything less than DE3. If they felt AJ couldn't be DE3 or possibly start in the event Von doesn't bounce back, they wouldn't have brought him back and at the number they did. They'd have picked someone else.
They've re-signed Epenesa, signed Dawuane Smoot (to a couple mil guaranteed) and Casey Toohill, and Drafted Javon Solomon. Groot, Von, and Epenesa are obviously safe and I don't see Javon Solomon (being a 5th Round Pick and a steal there, honestly) and Dawuane Smoot going anywhere either.
We'll only keep 5 and there's 5 right there. As it is, Casey Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan are going to be cut. I don't see us making a 5th Defensive End move this offseason, post 6/1, and honestly - the market is pretty much bare at this point anyways. Emmanuel Ogbah, Yannick Ngakoue, or Carl Lawson? Pass.
-
I've said it a couple times, but the only move I'm expecting is another perimeter Cornerback.
We lost Tre White, Dane Jackson, and Siran Neal. We replaced White with Douglas last year. We replaced Neal with Daequan Hardy. But we never replaced Dane Jackson. And with how often Christian Benford is hurt and Elam still being a relative unknown to count on - I don't see us rolling with Ja'Marcus Ingram or a UDFA to replace Jackson on the 53.
There is still a pretty deep pool of FA CB's left. I wouldn't expect a Xavien Howard, J.C. Jackson, Adoree Jackson, or Stephon Gilmore type would sign on for that role on the team - nor would I expect we'd tell Douglas or Benford to take a seat for one of them. But something like a Steven Nelson is something I could see.
-
5
-
-
6 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:
I think it would help to take a step back and look at the big picture. It's Beane's job to know the cash requirements of getting a trade WR on board and then what salary he would want to reduce that to. He knew/knows those numbers and has a plan to meet them. That's what a top GM does.
Going into the specifics is difficult for us. But it does seem reasonable to think it requires the $10M Tre money. Then I think it would be about only $5Mish more needed to bring a big fish WR in before restructuring. As you mention Aiyuk is $14.5.. And for Metcalf you list his $24.5 cap but aren't subtracting the bonus money (which is what oldmanfan's rules stated). Metcalf had a $30M bonus so even if prorated for $10M, Metcalf could make it for the brief $15M cash on hand.
You don't see Josh restructuring again, just because. But I can see this as part of the plan all along.
His track record of moves and the fact that he's never done that (restructuring someone more than once in the same off season) in the 8 years and countless deals he's done as GM isn't "just because". It goes to how he operates and this isn't his normal operating procedure.
As for the Metcalf contract, here's an in depth look. The cap room we would need to make it happen Post 6/1 is 13m. We would not have enough after doing the two moves left we could theoretically do (Oliver and Milano restructures), factoring in our other expenses:
https://steelersdepot.com/2024/05/evaluating-dk-metcalfs-contract-situation-with-seahawks/
Overtures on Draft Day were rebuffed. I don't believe he's available. It'd be great to have him. But why would they move him at this point? They aren't tanking. Why would they now, Post Draft, and Post the WR FA market being picked through - choose to trade away one of their best players with no way of replacing him?
I fall in with the poster above me. Would it be great? Yes. But the stance of expecting it like you seem to or even thinking it's even so much as a 50/50 shot - I just don't see it.
-
11 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:
2. How is Diggs a case in point for you? You mention he is a $6M cap hit, which is exactly what I am talking about. The ability to get an Aiyuk/Metcalf/D Adams/DHop at that price is what I think many don't realize could happen. How does restructuring Diggs to $6M mean that the guys I outlined cap hits would be SO massive? Kind of suggests the opposite to me. The cap hit can be manipulated to future years.
Diggs' cap hit is a case in point to you saying "we don't take on cap in a trade". And it's just the Base salary. If that's the case, why would Diggs have a cap hit for the Texans at all?
And yes, they were able to get it down to 6m - after a massive restructure. But they had to take it as is first BEFORE they could get it down to 6m. Initially, when they did the trade, even after everything we took on - the hit for the Texans was still 19m at the time of the trade.
And therein lies the problem. We have to be able to take on one of these WR's cap hit and the full terms of their current contract from the team we're trading with AS IS for the trade to be approved by the league.
We can't say "well, we don't have it now but once the deal goes through, we'll make it work". We either have the money to take on the cap hit as is and the trade goes through or we don't and the trade doesn't go through.
Before the Offseason started, there was a long list of measures we could do as far as releases, extensions, and restructures to get out from under the massive hole we were in. Since then, we have done every single one on the list, save for two - a restructure of Oliver and a restructure of Milano.
So let's do some accounting....
After the signings of MVS and Dee Delaney and the release of Quintez Cephus, we're at about, we'll say, 1.75m under. Add in the 10.25 from Tre - that brings us to roughly 12. A restructure of Oliver can save us 3.9m and a restructure of Milano can bring us another 2.4m. That gives us around 18.3. That's the highest amount I see us possibly reaching.
BUT! Even if we do those two moves and don't spend a dime on anyone else - which I don't see happening as we never replaced Dane Jackson and we're currently going into the season with just Elam (still a massive question mark) and UDFA/PS players underneath the oft-injured Benford and Douglas - there's still a number of things we have no choice but to account for....
We haven't signed our Draft Picks. We have to be able to pay for the Practice Squad. And we need some money for the In Season Spending Pool. So from that possible 18.3 or so, you need to subtract around 8. And this is something that there's no way around.
That leaves us with roughly around 10-10.5, give or take - if we were to restructure Milano and Oliver and sign no one else. Now - let's look at the cap hits for the guys :
Deebo Samuel - 28.83m
DK Metcalf - 24.5m
Davante Adams - 24.35m
Tee Higgins - 21.816m
Brandon Aiyuk - 14.124m
You see the problem here, right? Even if the cap number comes down a little bit on most of these guys through a trade - it's not coming down to 10. The money simply isn't there and the means to come up with it has all been done already. It would take radical moves like re-structuring Josh again - which I don't see happening, he's never restructured someone twice in the same offseason and if he felt comfortable taking more from Josh, he would have done it then. He'd also have to restructure moves he just did, which he's also never done, and I just don't see him doing.
*Maybe* Aiyuk could be done. Maybe there's a way that through the trade, his cap number would come down to around the 10 number we'd have. But, again, it would take re-structuring both Oliver and Milano - which he chose not to do when he was doing ALL the things he could to scrape up money and not signing anyone else at other positions.
11 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:4. I thought there would be like minded people to me, that believes Beane is a top GM and a top GM will be making a move. What that move is exactly was open for discussion. We haven't been able to get that far. Many feel the need to chime in and reiterate how in their opinion it can't/won't be done. This has been highlighted by the step by step rebuttal of each of what I perceived to be signs ending with what I hope will be a not soon forgotten classic "there is literally a 0% chance".
There is never a literally 0% chance of anything.
But it not being a 0% chance doesn't make it likely or logically feasible. And people pointing out the flaws in the likelihood of it happening doesn't mean these same people think we're in amazing shape or that these WR's you're mentioning wouldn't help or wouldn't be great to have.
I would be thrilled to land one of these guys. I wish we were in a scenario where I could say "yeah, I see that happening".
It's just when you really look at the scenarios of what it would take, what we could feasibly/realistically do, and what we've done already - it adds up to an *incredibly* unlikely scenario at this point. And that's where the disconnect is between you and the majority of posters on this thread.
After Drafting Keon Coleman and signing Curtis Samuel, MVS, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool already - it seems even more unlikely that they'd add yet *another* WR, at this point. This one the most expensive of them all, after everything he's done already. Had we not acquired one or two of these WR's and not signed some of the people we had before, it'd be a more manageable situation right now. But those deals are done and they aren't just going to be ignored or thrown away.
We only kept 5 WR's total last season. And we've got 5 guys already that aren't going anywhere. There's a reason they signed MVS, after Drafting Coleman and signing Samuel and Hollins. And to me, it's because he recognizes he just can't feasibly or responsibly pull something like what you're suggesting off - comfortable enough to his management of the team.
-
6 hours ago, billybrew1 said:
CB is our weakest spot right now…. Arguably no one on the outside after Elam. Benford is no solid oak there. Douglas is old and Elam is still a big question mark. We need a fourth outside corner and we need one bad.
Agreed. This is the only spot I look at on the roster that I see Beane addressing. As I said before, Douglas replaced White and Hardy replaced Neal - but there was no replacement signed or Drafted that replaces Dane Jackson.
Benford ability wise and performance wise *is* a solid oak and gets better each year. The issue is he gets injured fairly often. And beyond Benford and Douglas - it's just Elam and then Practice Squad and UDFA players.
There is quite a number of decent CB's still available. I don't see us paying big for a guy like Xavien Howard, J.C. Jackson, or Stephen Gilmore - but a guy like Steven Nelson makes sense.
-
10 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:
That’s exactly my point. Would be incredible if Bears would’ve traded the #9 pick for our first, second and third. Teams have done dumber things. Remember a couple years ago when the Vikings traded all the way down from pick 12 to 32!! Lions got Jameson Williams at pick 12
32, 34 and 66 to the Minnesota Vikings for pick Nos. 12 and 46
Wish we could’ve gotten a steal like that to trade up for Odunze. Stupid Vikings
There's a sliding scale for the cost of Draft Day Trades depending on the talent pool available. The 2022 Draft was not a great Draft. So prices were cheaper.
There's also a far cry difference between trading 32, 34, and 66 for 12 and 46 and trading 33, 60, and 95 for 9 - even if that wasn't a great trade to begin with.
Which is what the trade would have to be because your idea of giving 28 and giving up Bishop and Carter isn't possible. We were only able to get Carter because we traded down from 28. With 28, the best we could have offered to go along with it was 60 and a 4th.
The Bears weren't giving up Odunze, even in this "what if" scenario. They ran that card up to the podium like their shoes were on fire.
-
2
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, sven233 said:
Sounds like Coleman was not a guy they really wanted to had to have. I mean, that was pretty obvious from the fact that they traded down twice and then picked him. He was in a bucket with a bunch of guys. He talked about the tiers of WRs and said there was a clear top tier, then made it sound like there was a pretty big drop off to the end of round 1 and round 2 before getting to the 2nd tier.
To me, this means even a guy like BTJ who everyone had rated fairly highly, was in this tier 2 group and not in the tier 1 group because if he was, I believe they would have done everything they could have to move up the handful of spots it would have taken to get him. So, guys like Worthy and Legette were probably all in the tier 2 bucket with Coleman and a few other guys and they just took the one that was there. Frustrating for someone like me who did have several guys above Coleman who in this scenario I would have had more as a late tier 2, top of tier 3 kind of player.
But regardless, I think they are really hoping to win by having Josh play point guard this year and just get it to the open guy no matter who it is or what position it is. It's a bold strategy that could pay off if it works, but if it doesn't, it's yet another season of not fully committing to building around Allen and just forcing him to make everyone around him better rather than getting Allen the most weapons possible to unlock even another level for Allen in his career.
I disagree with this. Like you said, if they felt Thomas was much better, they could have easily moved up and gotten him. If Beane is to be believed, he didn't even try to move up. And if guys like Worthy and Legette were people they wanted more than Coleman - they wouldn't have traded out of 28 and 32. Especially to teams they knew were taking a WR.
I agree they had a number of guys they liked an equal amount, which is why they moved down twice. But I don't believe for a second that Coleman "was not a guy they really wanted to had to have". I didn't get that feeling watching the interview and I certainly didn't get that feeling with the moves he made. You're projecting your dislike of the pick here.
-
3
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I thought I had read that Samuel lined up 72% from the slot or something like that, with Brady in CAR?
This is what I could find:https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5343167/2024/03/14/buffalo-bills-curtis-samuel-free-agency/
concludes
and
I can't find anything indicating Samuel was used as an outside receiver with Brady in Carolina, much less 70% of the time.
Would appreciate learning your source.
This is correct. And of those 20-something% of snaps that weren't lined up at Slot, more than half came out of the Backfield.
He is NOT a Boundary WR. Which is why we Drafted Keon Coleman, ignored slot WR's in the Draft, and then signed MVS and Claypool.
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:
I'm obviously having trouble accepting this. Still in denial.
The MVS signing did hurt in terms of the odds of what I want to happen. But it doesn't change my overall feeling that Beane won't let the Bills main components of the WR room be C Samuel/rookie Coleman/Shakir.
Samuel, Coleman, Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, MVS
Is there a Top 10 veteran WR in there? No. But 22 teams in the NFL don't have one of those. And while we don't have a Top 10 guy, we have a wide spread of talented players in the Offensive firepower core that spreads larger than most teams.
If you take the production (or lackthereof) from Diggs and Davis into account from mid season until the end - it's quite possible, if not likely, we're going to get more out of the additions of Coleman, Samuel, and MVS than we did them, even if they don't have the name Star power.
You also shouldn't forget about Kincaid. He's a Tight End almost as much as Von Miller is a LB. He lines up standing off the line 90% of the time as a WR. True, it's inside. And on the Outside, we're hoping we nailed the Coleman pick and he's that guy.
But many teams #1 options come from Inside. And in Kincaid and Shakir, they want to give them more than they did last year and see if they grow more. Add in Samuel, also on the Inside, out of the Backfield, in motion, and occasionally Outside - and you've got as deep of an Inside WR talent roster as anyone.
Ultimately, do I wish we had more on the Outside than Coleman, MVS, and Hollins? Yes. But we simply don't have the means to do it. The cost is too great. You DO take on the Cap Hit of a traded player (case in point, even after restructuring and massaging Diggs' deal, he still accounts for a 6m cap hit in Houston), you just don't take on the bonus money or dead cap - which lowers it a bit.
But of the guys you want (that actually may be available), the cap hit's are SO massive. We have to take on the full hit before we can restructure it. And we simply can't after everything we've already done and the limited amount of moves we have left.
Which is why we did what we did. We lost 4 WR's. We brought in 5. We drafted Keon Coleman and signed Curtis Samuel, MVS, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool. Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, MVS, and Hollins are locked in. As it is, Shorter, Claypool, Hamler, and the rest of the field are all going to be cut - save for one.
This year is about evaluating Coleman, Shakir, and Kincaid in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years and seeing what our long term investment into Samuel yields with Josh. Adding someone else to this field pushes some of these guys down to where reps are extremely limited. And you could be burying a Superstar.
Next year's crop of FA WR's is strong and we have even more Draft Capital than we did last year. They'll see where they're at with these guys now. If they're all truly HIM, we won't do much else next year. And if they aren't who Beane thinks they are, they'll get a stud next year.
Denial is a good way to put your posts past the MVS signing. Would it be great to have one of those guys? Of course. But that ship sailed long before the MVS signing - which is why the MVS signing happened.
-
1
-
-
30 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
People were all concerned about having a deep threat that can stretch the field. With Hamler, MVS, Claypool and Isabella all in the fight, not to mention Shakir and Samuel who have speed, can we finally put that to rest?
I've said this a few times already, but Hamler is an extreme long shot. I see him as a guy who either shows a little something and his ceiling is the Practice Squad or he shows poorly and is outright cut.
He's this year's Andy Isabella. A 2nd Round bust who failed to impress in his 2nd chance in Indianapolis. He's on his 3rd team in less than a year. Regardless of how he looks playing with Trubisky and Buechele in the 3rd and 4th Quarters of Pre-Season games, it's not going to matter - as it didn't for Isabella. Because we know if we release him, the 3rd team to do so in a year, he's not going to be put immediately on someone elses 53 to start the season. Every year, fans play the "there's no way we can get (so and so) back" and every year we do.
As for who sticks -
Keon Coleman
Curtis Samuel
Khalil Shakir
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Mack Hollins
Justin Shorter or Chase Claypool
-
1
-
Bills sign Chase Claypool, Smoot, Jones
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by BillsFanForever19
He's convinced Beane is going to make a 6th rosterable WR addition this offseason, in a big trade. So he needs 8 of our current 13 WR's to end up cut if we keep 6, or 9 of the current 13 eventually cut if we only keep 5, like last season - to keep that dream alive.
That's his motivation for rooting against Claypool, creating scenarios where he's a "carcinogen" to the locker room, and wanting him cut quickly.
But I don't see a scenario where Beane gives all of Shorter, Claypool, Hamler, Isabella, Shavers and the rest of the UDFA/PS field a 0% chance of making the roster, if we were to keep 6. Or all of the previous list, plus 1 of MVS or Hollins also being cut, if we were to keep 5 again.
This is true. I'd go so far as to say posters around here would be *more* positive of Claypool's ability to rejuvenate his career if KC had signed him than they are of him doing it here.