nfreeman

DM: Holy cow -- didn't take long to throw Willis over. Here are my 2 cents: 1. WM looked pretty damn good last year and pretty strong against Houston. I'm not ready to consign him to merely "good" status yet after 1 bad game. Even the great ones have crappy games sometimes -- especially when the QB can't complete a pass longer than 6 yards to Josh Reed. 2. WM may not be fast like Bo Jackson but I agree with FFS that raw speed is not that high on the list of necessities for a great RB. 3. Although your observations about players from "the U" are generally accurate, and no one could say that your prediction of him complaining about weather, nightlife, etc., & having a bad relationship with Jerry Sullivan et al is crazy or impossible, it is not fair to assume WM is going to be a bad actor. [it's also a pretty un-PC prediction, esp. in your neighborhood.] Also, I've read some pretty favorable articles about Ed Reed, Edgerrin James, and even Jeremy Shockey. Let the man live his life and act as he will before judging him. Don't put words in his mouth that he hasn't come close to saying. I'm not aware of anything he's said or done to indicate that he will be a problem. He wanted to start, but so did travis henry. 4. WM also hasn't said a word that I've heard about wanting a new deal. It's become quite trendy to assume this based on Drew Rosenhaus, the U, etc. -- but again, it's unfair to judge until this happens. The real question here is production. Rosenhaus knows what the market for RBs is and one has to assume that WM does also. If WM has regular reprises of the TB game, he's going to be a 1000 - 1200 yard back at best and no one is going to be talking about a new contract. If he becomes the back everyone expected based on last year and week 1 of this year, he'll be a 1500-1700 yard back and after a couple of years will probably get a fat bonus/extension. From our perspective this will be a great development because he will be a great asset to the team and will be locked up at a young age. I suppose there is the possibility that he has a 1500 yard season this year and demands a new deal immediately, and TD won't budge, and WM holds out, it gets ugly, etc. -- but this is nothing more than pure speculation. It is just wrong to assume this is what is going to happen and hold it against WM. Frankly, we've got more pressing issues to deal with -- like a HUGE game on Sunday. which brings me to: 5. Prediction: WM plays with a chip on his shoulder, has a big game and the bills squeak out a close, low-scoring win that answers zero questions about whether JP is an NFL quarterback. Bills, 16-13.

DM -- I agree that Edwards is far from a solid DT, and that we need somebody else if not this year then definitely next, but I hope there is no implication in this thread that he is to blame for this loss. The D got butt-whipped all over the field -- no pass rush, plenty of 3rd down conversions allowed, etc. Losing Fletcher in the 2nd half hurt, as did the offense going 3-and-out the entire game, but the TB O soundly beat our D. I note that for a D that aspires to all-time great status, it has now been waxed in 2 of the last 3 games. If we are going to single one guy out for the bulk of the blame for this loss, we all know who that person is. As I have said from the get-go, we have great special teams, a very-good-to-great D and very-good-to-great skill players. We will be in the playoffs if JP plays average-to-good. It will be a long season if he stinks, as he did today. (Although I must point out that Mike Williams did not block ANYBODY on the safety). I think JP will be more up than down, but this is more hope than any kind of rational analysis. We are kidding ourselves if we are expecting a Roethlisburger season. We are also kidding ourselves if we think we know enough to evaluate how JP is going to do long-term. We just need to ride out the storm. In the meantime, let's remember that Bledsoe, no fewer than 6 times last year, was at least as bad as JP was today.

One point that should be made here is that Clements made a GREAT tackle on that play. It was a quick out to I believe WR Roy Williams, who is a big, strong wideout. The WR caught it on the 2 yard line and tried to muscle his way into the end zone, but NC stuck him and planted him into the turf. Troy Vincent came in at the end, but NC made the play. Another example of why we'll miss him when he gets a HUGE contract from someone after this season and takes off.

Whatever the reason, Lindell IMHO is clearly TD's biggest blind spot. The guy is an open manhole of a liability. He stinks and I find it hard to believe that we're gonna go into a season where points are going to be so valuable with this loser as our kicker. Meanwhile, I bet Steve Christie, who we should've kept and stashed on IR until he got better, is going to have another good year.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I thought JP looked pretty good. Quite a few beautiful throws. As far as the sacks/interceptions: 1. Interception #1 -- looked to me like Sam Aiken didn't turn around and look for the ball. 2. Interception #2 -- tipped up in the air, by I believe Aiken again. 3. One of the sacks -- Bennie Anderson just completely whiffed on his guy, who came flying in and got JP one step into his dropback. (BTW I think Anderson has looked lousy all preseason while Gandy has looked pretty good). I watched this play 3 or 4 times on tivo and Anderson totally missed his guy. In addition, Josh Reed had yet another drop of an very catchable ball to keep us out of field goal range. George Wilson (I think that's his last name? the last WR trying to catch on?) And Drew Haddad also had drops -- although I think Haddad got stripped by a good play by the d-back -- still it was an amazing throw. My conclusions: 1. JP will be fine and the O will look a lot better when Moulds and Evans are in there full time. 2. I'd rather have Haddad than Reed or Aiken as the temporary #3 until Roscoe returns. 3. Spikes made a great hit on a goal line running play on 2nd down, followed by another amazing stop by Clements (he got hurt a little on the play). Side note: The NFL network showed almost every bills' possession in the 1st half. I can't wait for the opener.

Thank you so much for keeping my family and me and the rest of the USA safe. I'll think of you when I'm at RWS next Sunday. USMC -- solid as a rock. God bless you and your fellow Marines.

Maybe I'm just way too optimistic, but I finally watched the game on tivo last night and I thought JP looked reasonably good. After reading the media coverage and TSW for 2 days I was expecting a horror show, but in my view he threw quite a few nice passes, avoided the rush well and didn't hurt the team. Certainly he looked better than Bledsoe did last year. It seemed like because of penalties and poor run blocking it was 3rd-and-12 about 5 times in the 1st quarter. Not fair to pin that on JP. He had a really nice drive that ended with a fumble by WM. Definitely a bonehead move to lose 20 yards down near their goal line, but that is going to happen once in a while. There were a number of times where he showed amazing ability to elude the pass rush. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if JP plays average-to-good this year, we will be in the playoffs. I'm starting to think he's going to get us there.

My 2 cents: 1. Those were drops by Moulds, Reed and Evans. I can live with it from EM and LE, but if Roscoe doesn't get the #3 WR spot when he returns I'll be pretty disappointed. Reed has had plenty of chances and simply doesn't get it done. Simon's point about Reed not attacking the ball with his hands is well said. I would even take it a step further and say Reed doesn't catch the ball with just his hands, like a WR is supposed to -- he traps it against his body which results in more drops. 2. I thought JP looked pretty good vs the packers, esp. compared with Bledsoe last night. Good zip on the ball, good accuracy, good pocket awareness, great mobility. Definite improvement as compared with the 1st preseason game. It's still a long way until we can be confident in him as the man, but I like what I see so far. 3. Clements is going to have a huge year. Unfortunately, that will probably be the end for him here. Someone is going to give him a Champ Bailey offer and it isn't going to be TD. 4. The Bills' D can't give up 6 3rd-down conversions to the pack on one drive and go around comparing itself to the '85 bears. 5. Gandy looks pretty decent. I wouldn't be surprised if he is as effective as Jonas Jennings was last year, at about 20% of the cost. Another good move by TD. That's all.

Great post. This makes it clear what the real cap implications are. A $15 - $18 million bonus would count about $2.5 - $3 million per year against the cap, and the salary would probably be something like $3 million in year 1, $4 million in year 2, etc. Looks relatively affordable in the first 2-3 years, but thereafter he'll be getting pretty close to 10% of the entire cap -- and escalating each year. And if things change (ie injury) and we need to cut him after 4 years -- huge cap hit that gets accelerated into one year. Personally, I don't see TD offering more than a $12-$14 million bonus, because I think he does not believe in setting up the team to have to face that kind of salary cap situation down the road. I don't think he will think that it's worthwhile to tie up that kind of cap space on a CB. This unfortunately means the playmaker is gone. I will agree with TD if this is the call. I really like NC, but I think there are only a few positions that are worth that kind of commitment (DE, QB and maybe RB). If Willis has the kind of year everyone is expecting, he's going to need a new deal in another year or 2, which is going to be expensive. Also, giving out huge deals to non-critical positions means you can't jump on a guy like Lawyer Milloy when he becomes available. BTW, this is all academic if JP doesn't deliver.

Are you out of your mind? Why don't we just trade Moulds and Spikes for Ricky Williams, Randy Moss, Rod Strickland and that hockey player that put out a contract to kill someone? I've said before that I wouldn't trade EM for TO. I'll now amend that: I wouldn't trade Moulds for 10 TOs. TO is a PUNK. He puts himself ahead of the team. There is only one way the story ends for any team dumb enough to bring him in -- the way it's ending now in Philly. Meanwhile, Moulds is going to have another big season in which he catches over 80 balls for over 1000 yards and is a monster in traffic when we need 7 yards on 3rd down. Moulds also won't complain when Evans has more touchdowns or when JP makes mistakes. The guy is a rock. If JP is half as good as Moulds we'll do some real damage in the playoffs. And when we get there Moulds is going to make whoever's guarding him regret that it's EM's first shot at the playoffs in 6 years. I don't want to hear any more about "unloading" Moulds because he's going to have a big cap number next year -- especially not for someone like TO. How about a little loyalty to a guy that has busted his butt for disappointing teams (and been extremely productive despite playing with a bunch of different spotty QBs) for his entire career? Moulds is going to have another huge season and the bills will re-work his deal so that he still makes good money for another 2-3 years. He's in unbelievable shape and is not going to tail off anytime soon.

My 2 cents: D and ST are both very strong (although I'm already a little tired of hearing about whether our D is one of the "all-time best" defenses. an "all-time" defense doesn't get waxed, at home, by pittsburgh's backups when a win puts us in the playoffs). If JP is above average, we are in the playoffs. If he's good we should win a playoff game. For that matter if Bledsoe had been an average QB last year instead of bottom 5, we would have been in the playoffs. There is no way of knowing how well JP is going to play until the 2nd month of the regular season.

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freester, I'm going to smack you in the mouth for that "idea".

Thanks for all responses. Does anyone have a link to an article? Before I accept that Ralph did this -- which would be a huge disappointment -- I think I need to see it in writing, where someone from the Bills admits it (ie no anonymous quotes). I would probably believe it if Wade said it, but I need to see it. Obviously, what I REALLY need is for the season to start and for JP to be good.

Just something I'm pondering late at night... Has anyone ever gotten the real story on this? Remember, in Flutie's 2nd year, he started the 1st 15 games of the season. The offense was significantly worse than the previous year (about 7 ppg less). The last game of the season was meaningless for the Bills' playoff position, so RJ started and lit up the scoreboard. Suddenly, he was starting the following week against the Titans, on the road, IN THE PLAYOFFS. I won't drag us through the details again, but we ended up...not advancing in the playoffs. RJ was the starter for the entire following year, in which the offense again was painfully bad, the special teams were disastrous, Wade Phillips and John Butler were both canned, and the era of TD and GW was ushered in. Then, at some point, it was reported somewhere that Ralph Wilson had ordered that RJ get the start against the Titans. I have never heard any Buffalo Bills official source confirm or deny this -- just a bunch of unnamed sources. My question is: does anybody know the real story?

Muchas gracias.

I almost forgot: 1989, Rams at Bills on MNF. Bills trail the entire game. Late drive. Andre Reed, at his peak, carries 3 guys on his back for about 10 yards into the end zone to force OT, where we go on to win.

1. Thurman's run, I'm pretty sure, was on 4th down and sealed a PLAYOFF win against Miami. Also pretty sure that was Shula's last game. Very high up on my list. 2. Maybe even higher: Jimbo's run on the QB draw at the gun to beat Miami down there in '88 (or was it '89?). And if anyone has a tape or DVD of that game, I'd be very grateful to hear about it. 3. Another huge Miami win: Flutie's first year, we're down 24-14 in the 4th quarter in the Ralph, and Miami has the #1 defense in the NFL at that point. Long bomb to Moulds to get close, then that CS Jimmy Johnson goes for it on 4th-and-1 from Miami's own 20-yard-line or so. We stuff them and the Ralph goes crazy. Unbelievable. We go on for a huge win. 4. The great Jerry Butler catching the ball behind a Pittsburgh DB's head in the end zone in the snow. 5. Bills 34, SF 31. Zero punts. 6. A 5-hour tailgate before each home opener, followed by the electric anticipation of walking into the stadium.

Gentlemen, Clements is gone. Anyone who puts "playmaker" on his locker name tag is going to try to get the biggest CB contract in the league. Someone is going to give him a $15 million bonus, the Bills are not going to match, and that is the end of the story. Also -- if this happens, I won't begrudge Nate this one bit. He's got a few years in his career, all of which will be spent subjecting his body to unbelievable abuse. His career could be over literally any minute. No guaranteed contracts in the NFL -- if he gets hurt, he is hosed. He's a great player -- one of the best CBs in the league and probably the 2nd-best player on the defense (after Takeo, IMHO). I'd love to keep him, but not if the number is too high. You just can't tie up that much cap room on one CB. McGee isn't as good as Clements and can't be our #1 CB. If we lose Clements I'd expect a FA signing and/or our first-round pick next year to be a CB. How many days until opening day? Who thinks JP is going to be good?

383864[/snapback] 383892[/snapback] I don't disagree with your view on this -- I probably would have done the same thing (although it's worth mentioning that we could have dumped both Flutie and Johnson, saved another $5 million, since that was how much RJ was making, and kept Ted Washington). We definitely would have won more games with Flutie, but RJ had more upside. It was a reasonable decision based on the info then available to TD, but it turned out to be wrong. I would even say the same thing about hiring GW -- he clearly is a very good defensive coordinator, and a lot of good head coaches were first defensive coordinators. So it wasn't one of those decisions that at the time made you think that TD was crazy. However: when you get paid as much as TD is getting paid, and you are in charge of delivering a good football team to the owner and the fans, you have to take the heat when your important decisions turn out wrong. Coach and QB are the 2 biggest decisions that the GM has to make, and both turned out wrong. 383864[/snapback] Also I would give him a 1/2 and 1/2 for signing Bledsoe rather than an 0-1. Bledsoe was flay out a great thing for the Bills in his first year as we went from 3-13 to 8-8. If you believe that record is really the bottom-line then this has to be significant to you. In terms of the details of how we got there in addition to the W/L, I think Bledsoe deserve to be named a reserve on the Pro Bowl that year and if you disagree then simply name the QB you would have named to the team to leave him off. He clearly was a big part in rejuvenating Bills fans after a sorry 3-13 season as exemplified by the huge turnout to the Ralph for the welcome Drew party. TD did a great thing by pulling off this deal as the real world alternative of available QBs at the time would have seen Rodney Peete or Chris Chandler {shudder) leading this team. As good a decision as it was in the short run it turned just as bad in 2003 as opponents got enough tape on Bledsoe to figure out the Bills O and Belichick provided a roadmap on how to kill him. The real mistake though was that TD had chosen an HC with no offensive chops and then caved to GW's wishes to hire Keving Killdrive and not take TD's choice at the time who was Tom Clements. I think it all was a wash after two years and particularly when TD and the Bills were able to replace the 1st rounder they gave up for Bledsoe with a pick who became WM, it was then TD made his big mistake of redoing Bledsoe's deal. It was not a mistake at all to acquire Bledsoe (particularly given the alternatives), it was a mistake to resign him (a mistake we paid for by cutting him). 383892[/snapback] I don't necessarily disagree with you on this one either. I think it was actually another reasonable decision that worked out better than the GW and RJ decisions, but still not very well. No question that Bledsoe made the Bills very exciting during his first year, although he really tailed off towards the end of that season. It was reasonable to keep him for another year, during which he stunk. After that second year, it was either (i) pay him a $10 million bonus to keep him, (ii) re-do his contract or (iii) let him walk as a free agent. Option (i) was out of the question. Having brought in a new coach and a bunch of new weapons (Evans, McGahee, a healthy Moulds), it wasn't unreasonable to keep Bledsoe around one more year while JP apprenticed. Unfortunately, JP got hurt and Bledsoe stunk again. He was one of the worst 5-7 QBs in the league last year. If he was in the middle 10, we'd have been in the playoffs. It's fair to ask which QBs have been available over the past few years that would have done better. Kerry Collins? The backup on the Titans that we took a bit of a shot at? Brad Johnson? Possibly each of them would have been better, but maybe not -- no Tom Bradys were floating around. 383864[/snapback] As far as your 5th point i do agree that the bottomline for assessing the last 5 years is the record is bad, but the bottomline for assessing next season has to be his most recent record and recent decisions. Again if W/L is the bottomline we are moving in the right direction bigtime and to advocate that this team take a step back and start overgives no recognition to the fact that the major error of TD picking GW had been addressed and changed and that the other major error of resigning Bledsoe has also be addressed and changed. Yo the extent that the far better HC we have is willing and able to minimize the amount we depend upon this young QB to be a vet (which he isn't) and win games we are gonna lose. To the extent this team instead relies on the D led by a host of vets and the young guns on ST led by April to win games we will be fine. 383892[/snapback] I wouldn't advocate canning TD unless JP is a washout. He will probably get 2 seasons to prove himself. If after the next 2 seasons, it's clear that he stinks, the Bills will have been a .500 or worse team for 2 more years -- and then TD will have to go. If TD was right about JP, then we will be in the playoffs and TD will be vindicated. But he has to have been right about JP (or pull a good QB out of somewhere else). I need to see the Bills back in the playoffs. I NEED to go to the Ralph in January and see us send the Steelers or the Pats to the golf course for the winter.

In any event, seeing brilliant moves such as this, it is actually hard for me to believe that TD is the same person who hired GW and Gilbride. I am quite pleased about having TD as the GM of the Buffalo Bills. 383802[/snapback] Here's my 2 cents: 1. TH is a pretty good running back. Not great, but pretty darn good. Pluses were toughness, good in short yardage (esp. around the goal line), and productivity. Minuses were consistent fumbling (yes, I know he fumbled less in year 3 than in year 2, but I swear he put it on the ground just as much and was just able to pick it back up himself more of the time than in previous years) and injury prone. 2. However, McGahee is clearly better and TH was -- in another negative -- not willing to be a team player about it for one more year until he was a free agent. This is too bad because it's not like WM doesn't have an injury history -- ie it's fairly likely that we will need a good #2 back. 3. TD has done well in many respects but the record is what it is. I think he's built a solid organization. His drafts and free agent signings have been pretty good and represented good values. 4. However, he was 0 for 2 in the 2 biggest decisions he made initially -- Rob Johnson and Gregg Williams -- and you could easily count bledsoe in that column and say 0 for 3. QB and coach are so important. To think that we could've had Herman Edwards or John Fox instead of that loser GW is painful. And didn't everyone look at Bledsoe, coming after RJ, and see more of the same? Ie a big stiff who had a good arm but was completely clueless in the pocket about avoiding the rush and just got creamed time after time? 5. Bottom line is that TD has been on the scene for 4 years now and still no playoffs. We are relying on essentially a rookie QB to get us in this year. Clements is gone after this year and maybe Moulds also (I hope not on both). Mularkey seems like a good coach. If JP is good, we should be back in the playoffs. If he isn't, it's another huge mistake by TD and he will probably deserve to get canned. Holy mackarel I hope JP is good. But we are not going to know the answer to that EXTREMELY important question until sometime in November.

I've also got 2 -- Sec. 313, Row 10. This is 10th row of upper deck bet. the 25 and 30. If you're interested, PM me. Good luck.

On Sat. night, go to either Duff's (on Sheridan and Millersport) or the Anchor Bar. I prefer Duff's but both are outstanding. Wings, fries with gravy, canadian beer...mmmmmm. This is a critical part of the trip. Get to the game EARLY. 9 AM at the latest. Bring lots of food and beer and just soak up the atmosphere. Bring a seat cushion or buy one at the game. Also, if it's a september game, bring sunscreen and a hat -- there are lots of sunny days at the ralph and half the stadium just cooks away in the sun -- the bleachers are like sitting in a giant aluminum reflector. Go bills.

Thurman.

Peyton didn't sign a contract, take a big bonus and then hold out ONE year later for a better deal. He also didn't blame his team's loss in the playoffs on one of his teammates. I don't have anything against the concept of TO getting paid well. However, what he is doing is way over the line. Nobody put a gun to his head to make him sign the Eagles' contract. He forced his way out of SF AND Baltimore, AND got a big contract with a big signing bonus. You don't get to do that and then renegotiate one year later. No way. You suck it up for at least 2 more big years before you start asking for a raise. And you ABSOLUTELY don't start publicly blaming the super bowl loss on your quarterback. When you're as close to winning the super bowl as the eagles are, you focus on the prize -- like Moulds would. You don't make waves like that. Those 2 actions combined make him, IMHO, a big jerk.