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Einstein

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    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:


    Where was your genius when we drafted Bernard?  How about Milano?  Were you on here challenging those picks too?  

     

    Huh? The conversation you quoted had nothing to do with the Bills picked. It was talking about trading with the Chiefs.

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Einstein

    15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

    Clearly I don't know as much as Brandon Beane. But I feel I know enough to have an opinion.

     

    I would argue that anyone who has average-to-strong football analysis capability has enough knowledge to have an opinion after only 20 minutes of player game-tape. Not know more than you - but enough to have a fair opinion.

     

    I recall an analysis done several years ago where it was shown that if the various Bills front offices of the drought (close to 20 years of drafts), simply followed the public sentiment of player grading (I don’t recall the exact public list), the team would have drafted more high caliber players than they actually did over that span.


    That was incredibly eye opening to me, and showed that the NFL GM’s who had done thousands of hours of game review know not much more (in terms of predictably of success) than the guys watching significantly less.

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:


    Wait you’re saying higher drafted players have higher success rates?  Lol, you really needed to type 3 paragraphs to break that news?

     

    You seemed to be contradicting that by listing hall of famers taken in later rounds, but apologies if I misunderstood.


    We can select WR’s now, but the likelihood of them being a contributor has rapidly diminished and that appears to be what the poster you were refuting was alluding to.

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, zevo said:

    I think thats bad business. you always do what best for you. Yeah kc has the rings. I get that. but it is not like they are on another level than the bills. this is why I can't wrap my head around these fear bunkers. do what's best for your team.

     

    Doing what is best for your team includes the chess-style component of playing defense against your competition. Doing what is best for your team includes doing what is within your ability to block your greatest competition from improving their team.

     

    Remember when Bill Belichick poison-pilled Wes Welker and screwed Miami? Remember when the Chargers selected Eli Manning just so they could block another team from getting him and therefore forcing a windfall of capital? There are many examples really.

     

    There is an element of game theory in the NFL that great teams use to their advantage. 

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

     

    Are you serious?  What round was Diggs drafted in?  How about Antonio Brown?  How about Milano?  Shakir?  Taron?  What about Brady?  How about Pacheco?

     

    Listing exceptions to the rule does not negate  the rule. They are called exceptions for a reason. Higher round draft picks are not valued more and cost more for no reason. It is because players chosen in those rounds are statistically more likely to succeed.

     

    I recently read a statistical analysis that looked at draft picks up to 2015. WR’s drafted in the 1st and 2nd round had an approximately 50% success rate. As soon as the 3rd round hit, the success rate plummeted to 25%. The 4th round then plummeted to 12%. The last few rounds were around 10% and less if I recall correctly.

     

    The players you listed are exceptions to the rule.

     

    Ps, by “success”, the analysis was simply looking at WR’s who started for at least half of their career. So the barrier to be “successful” was pretty low, and it was STILL plummeted after the 2nd round.

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, zevo said:

    expound on why this was egregious? the fact that our gm shows nfg about who he trades with as long as it benefits his franchise should make you happy.

     

    It doesn’t make me happy at all. We handed the Chiefs who they wanted and it only gained us moving up 1 round. This is the team we are chasing. It has universally mocked by pundits and rightfully so. We can only

    hope that Worthy doesn’t become a stud, but that is hardly the point in my

    opinion. I am not interesting in making it any easier for the team we are chasing to obtain the player they want. Maybe they still get him anyway, but it shouldn’t be due to us handing the player to them.

     

    If they want to trade with us, it should come with a large tax.

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, peterpan said:

    The more YouTube vids I see of Coleman, the better he is loooking.  I was a little too quick to judge at first.  He is faster and smoother than I remembered.  Still a project guy tho 

     

    This is called copium. We’ve all been there.

     

    Colemans issue was never really smoothness. His problem is that he has no ability to seperate. Thats the issue. And none of his YouTube videos ever showed that getting better. He makes up for it by being incredibly skilled at adjusting to the ball and catching in contested spaces.

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

    Well...there is no guarantee they are right either.

     

    Exactly right.

     

    Appeal to authority.

     

    A logical fallacy that is littered throughout this forum.
     

    People assume that being an NFL GM makes that person a “draft expert”. As if they don’t know that even the best GM’s are right no more than half the time at best. As if they don’t know that HOF general managers like Bill Polian had entire drafts that were terrible. It happens.

     

    In my opinion, this is the worst draft (so far) i’ve seen a Bills front office make in a very long time. I may be proven wrong. I HOPE i’m proven wrong. But that is how I feel as of today. And it is coming at the worst possible time - when we needed a very strong draft to recoup the litany of players we lost.

    Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    I won’t pretend to have any prior knowledge on this player, because I don’t. But from what i’m reading on Reddit and beyond (most of which was posted a month or more ago), he really struggled to get separation in college. Which means he will likely struggle to get separation in the NFL. And lack of separation is already an issue in our offense.

    Trying to be reasonable here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, eball said:

    Beane gained 124 spots in draft position to give up 5.  The Bills now have two 2nds, a 3rd, and four (!!!) 4ths.

     

    That’s a win.  Who gives a @#$% what the Chefs do?

     


    I don't think we have four 4ths. I'm pretty sure we went into yesterday with 2 and traded one. So I think we have 1 fourth left.

    Trying to be reasonable here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

    They won the last two Super Bowls.  LOL.  I'm also a little dubious of their ability to scout WR's with spending premium draft picks on Hardman, Moore, and Rice.

     

    At this point, I would trust KC’s front office over ours.

     

    A front office that has rebuilt their entire defense and o-line into top 10 units in only two off-seasons. A front office that jumped in front of us to take McDuffie, while we took Elam. A front office that traded with us to take Mahomes.

     

    I like Beane - I think we could do a lot worse than Brandon - but if I HAD to bet on who is right and who is wrong at a premature hour, I would have to bet on the Chiefs front office simply based on recent history alone.

    • Thank you (+1) 1

    Trying to be reasonable here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    5 hours ago, NewEra said:

    So we should have stayed at 28 and drafted a player we could’ve had later, while not getting an extra 3rd rd pick

     

    We didn’t really get an extra 3rd round pick.

     

    We traded a 4th for a 3rd, so we essentially moved up half a round.

     

    Thats a lot different than keeping our picks and gaining a 3rd.

     

    I would have been fine trading with anyone else. I hate that they traded with KC.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Live 2024 NFL Draft thread - Round 1 (Do NOT tip the Bills pick)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Just now, ndirish1978 said:

    I believe the Bills didn't want Worthy, saw who was picking after than and had a good idea who they were going to pick and realized the Chiefs were going to wind up with Worthy anyway so they traded and picked up a 3rd. Optics are awful for people who wanted worthy, but we obviously didn't want him.  I dunno what else they could do, call around and ask everyone "hey we will trade out of the 1st and give you a sweetheart deal if you take Worthy?" I understand the frustration but you can't fixate on a single player when you don't know who the team wants. 

     

    For what it’s worth, I didn’t want Worthy either. I believe he plays much slower in pads than the 40 time shows.

     

    But you just don’t trade with your nemesis. You don’t trade with the team that already took a HOF QB from you. You don’t trade with a team that has beaten you in the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years.

     

    You don’t trade with a team you’re trying to catch!

     

    I hate this so much. And all for a 3rd round pick? 
     

    We better hope and pray i’m right about Worthy and he doesn’t turn into Tyreek Hill 2.0. If that happens and we gave up Mahomes AND Hill 2.0 … oofta.

    • Like (+1) 1
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