GASabresIUFan
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Posts posted by GASabresIUFan
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I’ve been arguing with the folks here who want us to add a name WR. They wanted Beane to acquire Aiyuk or Metcalf or OBJ or “insert the name of your favorite FA here.”
I argued that given our budget constraints that Beane wasn’t going that route. He was finally going to develop and rely on our own receivers. He has to a certain extent. The starters are going to feature 3 internal guys in Coleman, Kincaid and Shakir all with two years or less of experience.
Beane is Beane and he has signed 5 veteran receivers. One former Brady protege Curtis Samuel who brings vet experience, position flexibility and speed. He also brought in special teams ace Hollins who adds a big receiver to the WR group.
The other 3 are still young former top prospects who for various reasons haven’t reached their potential. They are
1. Chase Claypool, 25. The former 2nd rd pick has 2 800+ yard seasons, but hasn’t found a good fit (bad attitude on his part?) the last two years.
2. Quintez Cephus, 26. Former 5th pick who had a solid rookie year but then injuries and a gambling suspension derailed a promising start.
3. KJ Hamler, 24. Speedy receiver and former 2nd rd pick whose career has been beset with major injuries but hopefully is now healthy.
Beane is clearly throwing spaghetti at the wall and hoping one of these guys or rookie 5th rd pick (2023) Shorter sticks. I’d have preferred that Beane go GB style and draft more receivers, but for a team on a budget Beane’s is a reasonable approach. He’ll look like a genius if one of them really emerges and makes a contribution.
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You can’t really include Rice for KC because he is going to jail. However, you need to add Worthy.
I think you should add GB to your list and Houston.
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20 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:
If they keep 6 WRs the math will work out that 1 will not dress most weeks.
That WR could have more WR potential than ST worth.
I agree that WR5 needs to be a ST guy.
That’s why Hollins was signed.
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12 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:
Why the hate on Johnson? Everyone has him as a cut. He ran hard last year. His pass protection was fine and he has a low cap hit.
Why is everyone acting like he was Reggie Bush running backwards in mud? You have to have some experience there besides Cook.
He is still RB2 until Davis shows he's better than he is in camp. Even if Davis wins the RB2, Johnson is making this team. Gore is going to have to do something extraordinary to beat him out.
We kept 5 WRs last season, but I'm leaning more and more toward 6 this season. The top 3 are set in Shakir, Samuel and Coleman, but after that it's becoming more and more like a throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks. Hollins is making the team because of his special teams duties, but if Brady/Beane/McD are working toward a matchup offense each week, then I can see Hamler making the team as the speed threat and then one of Cephus, Claypool or Shorter also getting a shot as a power WR. If Claypool has a good camp, I see him winning that job. Hard to ignore a guy only 25 and had back to back 800 yard+ seasons.
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Power is definitely on Beane's agenda. Whether Cephus or Claypool make the team isn't the issue. They are symptoms of a trend supported by the drafting of Coleman and Ray Davis and the signing of Hollins. Beane/McD/Brady want to be able to control the clock and beat people into submission if necessary. Someone else mentioned that Cook wore down late in the season. Cook also isn't a "physical" runner, but Ray Davis is.
They also aren't ignoring speed. Samuel and Hamler are burners. Shakir and Cook are also fast.
Seems to me that management wants a team where they can be flexible in their game plan to exploit holes in the defense. We'll go deep on teams the stack the box, run against teams playing nickel and dime, and throw short and medium passes on teams the play 2 deep zone. They are also trying to solve our issues in the redzone. They have gone bigger and stronger to be able to pound out yards without giving Josh a pounding.
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@LABILLBACKER Hollins is making the team. His dead cap is 1.1 million. He was signed to be a special teams ace and WR depth. Camp will determine whether he;ll be WR 4 or WR 5, but he’ll be active every week.
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11 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Chase Claypool. lol. What a waste of a physical being. I don’t hate that we brought him in based on traits, but I don’t think he or any of these 3 makes the team. Experienced vets that can push the kids… except Claypool. He brings nothing to the table.
At 240 lbs, he’s probably eating everything on the table.
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Congrats to the folks here who wanted more depth at WR. 8 receptions for 77 yards last year. Start printing the Super Bowl tickets.
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6 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Sad, but not shocking. I really thought he was going to be a stud coming out of College.
Can't trust those Bama running backs. 😛
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I have corrected the OP to properly reflect Jonathan & DeShawn Williams positions.
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Safeties fixed.
PS I used the positions listed on Spotrac. Williams is listed as a DE and Jonathan as a DT. It doesn’t really change much as Jonathan is likely to make to the team and Williams is in a huge camp battle.
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I was looking at some of the projections of the 53 man roster from the Rochester paper and the Athletic and some interesting camp battles become clear from their articles.
I think the roster looks something like this
Offense: 24 players (8 of 11 starters return)
QB - (2) Allen & Trubisky
RB - (4) Cook, Davis, Johnson, & Gilliam PS: Gore Jr
TE - (3) Kincaid, Knox, & Morris
WR - (6) Shakir, Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, Claypool, Hamler PS: Shorter & Cephus Cut: Shavers and Isabella
C - (2) McGovern & Van Pran Cut: Clapp (dead cap 287,500)
OG - (3) Edwards, Torrence, Anderson
OT - (4) Dawkins, Brown, Van Denmark, Collins PS: Grable, Clayton Cut: Doyle (dead cap 78391)
Defense: 26 players (8 of 11 starters return)
DT - (5) Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Carter & Williams PS: Ankou & Cline
DE/Edge (5) Rousseau, Epenesa, Miller, Solomon & Jonathan PS/Cut: Toohill
LB - (6) Milano, Bernard, Williams, Ulofoshio, Morrow, & Spector EDIT: Cut Jones?
CB - (6) T Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam, Lewis & Ingram PS: Hardy
S - (4) Rapp, Edwards, Bishops, Hamlin
Sp -(4) Bass (PK), Punter, Ferguson (LS), Hamler/Hardy or someone else (KR)
The Battles
WR - Who will claim the last 2 spots - If I had to bet right now and if no other players are in the mix, I think management goes with Shorter and Hamler. Shorter has a dead cap hit of 243K. Hamler likely wins the PK job and therefore we keep 6 WRs instead of last year's 5
C/G - McGovern is penciled in a the starter at C after being the starter a G last year. If rookie Van Pran makes an impact in camp, I can see McGovern again going back to guard, sending Edwards to the bench. The other question is Clapp. His dead cap is 287.5K.
OT - I don;t think they'll be much of a battle for the OT backup jobs, but it will be interesting to see if Collins (dead cap 1.5 million) has anything left and whether any of the kids are worth while.
Defense
DT - The top 4 are written in stone, but the 5th slot is up for grabs between Williams, Ankou and Cline. I'm going to Williams
DE - Rookie Solomon is making the team as the 4th edge player. If we carry a 5th we should see a good battle between Jonathan and Toohill
LB - The top 3 are written in stone, but I can see 6 LBs on the 53 man roster as they invest in Morrow (750k dead cap), drafted Ulofoshio and Spector looked solid in limited reps. I think they keep all 6 as someone will certainly steal Spector if cut and sent to the PS. Apparently we are adding a 7th LB to the mix in for pro-bowler Deion Jones.
CB - Top 4 set in stone. Lewis' versatility also makes him a lock. The question is can Hardy and/or Ingram show enough to earn a job.
S - Edwards and Rapp are the presumed starters, but I think Bishop has a good shot at unseating one of them. I also wonder if Beane brings in more help here and where does that leave Hamlin?
Punter battle - Martin, Haack & a UDFA. I'm rooting for the kid.
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@PBF81 You conveniently left out the 2 of the 4 players over 1000 yards were RB Mike Davis and WR Robbie Anderson. That was Davis' one good year in the NFL and while you dismiss Cook, I don't think you can argue that Davis is anywhere near the player Cook is. Shakir is probably at least as good as Anderson.
What you also fail to acknowledge is that Shakir had 600+ yards on only 45 targets last season, averaging 15.7 yards per catch. Shakir had 17 explosive plays last year on only 45 targets which has one of the best ratios in the NFL (Diggs had 19 on 160 targets and Davis 21 of 81 targets). What is he going to do with 80 or 90 targets? Kincaid is much the same. Both guys, as the focal points of the offense, should increase their targets substantially and should approach 1000 yards if healthy. May I also point out that Cook, Shakir and Kincaid caught 80% of their targets, unlike Diggs, Davis, Harty and Sherfield; all of which are now gone.
Personally, I'm not counting on Samuel giving us more than 650-700 yards. As to the rookie Coleman, he is almost certainly going to be a better rookie than Gabe Davis. Davis had 35 catches for 599 and 7TDs as a rookie. My guess is Coleman improves on those numbers. Another comparison for Coleman is Higgins (33rd in 2020) and Pittman (34th in 2020). Both guys are a similar size and speed to Coleman. Higgins had 900 yards and started immediately while Pittman had 500 yards and didn't start immediately. Using Davis, Pittman and Higgins as reference points, I think we'll see at least 700 yards and 7 TDs from Coleman next season.
You asked about Samuel's 200 rushing yards. I expect Ray Davis to pick up that slack. He is a good pass catcher and blocker and I suspect we'll see him often next season as a 3rd down back.
So the general answer is I fully expect the top 5 Bills skill players to all have 700 or more yards from scrimmage next season with Cook well over 1000 and Shakir and Kincaid knocking on that door.
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2 hours ago, PBF81 said:
It'll be interesting, out entire offense is going to be interesting.
The skill position lineup seems to be a lot closer to what it was in 2019 than what it was before Diggs arrived.
Shakir didn't draw double coverage last year. Will any of our WRs command double coverage.
Why does it matter? We are going to present defenses with a new set of challenges. Instead of just having to worry about Diggs, they are going to have to worry about 5 different players in Cook, Kincaid, Coleman, Shakir and Samuel. This will be one of those years where Josh can sit back and take what the defense gives and no longer have to feed Diggs. Each week we may see a different hot hand getting the targets depending on the holes in the defense.
When Brady was in Carolina they had 4 players with over 1000 yards from scrimmage; 3 WRs and 1 RB. Their RBs had 100 targets in the passing game. Their top 3 WRs had 136, 118 and 97 targets and all that with trading McCaffery 3 games into the season and no TE worth a crap.
The Bills last year only had 2 players with 1000+ yards from scrimmage.; Cook with 1567 and Diggs with 1188. The only other player over 700 yards was Davis. This season I expect all 5 guys I listed to exceed 700 scrimmage yards.
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17 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:
Unless he is returning kicks, he wont even make team.
I think this is probably true. The 53 man roster is tough. The guys at or near the bottom of the roster must do two things. They must help on special teams and if they add a skill set to their position group the better.
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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:
ding, ding, ding. We have a winner!
This is what I wrote in the leading receiver thread!
Quote1) Coleman - Davis, as a rookie was in the WR 3/4 role behind Beasley and Diggs, sharing PT with John Brown. He had 35 catches for 599 yards and 7 TDs. Imho, for Coleman, those numbers the minimum we should expect. I’m also not expecting 900 yards + from Coleman given the numerous other targets. Prediction, 42 catches for 700 yards and 8 TDs.
2) Samuel - Outside his breakout year in Carolina, Samuel has been worth about 650 yards on 60 catches with 4 TDs. I can see those numbers going up some, But, I’d be happy with that level of production.
3) Shakir - He had 611 yards on only 39 catches. He spent most of last year being the 3rd option and not even that until week 7. What’s he going to do when he is fully part of the offense? From week 7 through the playoffs, Shakir was on pace for an 850 yard season. I suspect Brady will give him twice as many targets this season (thus around 90) and be rewarded with 70 catches for around 1000 yards and at least 6 TDs.
4) Kincaid - Like Shakir he blossomed after week 6. He was also on a pace for about 850 yards from week 7 through the playoffs. I’m expecting further improvement this season. I think we’ll see 90 catches on 115 targets for 950 yards and 6 TDs
The difference is I think they group will have more TDs than 19. Beane is playing moneyball with the receiving group and it's long overdue.
There still seems to be some belief here that Beane is going to use his June 1 cap from White on an experienced receiver despite his repeated that he is going young and cheaper. SOrry folks but his big FA splurge was Samuel. Unless someone gets hurt or Coleman proves terrible in camp, I doubt Beane invests any more cap at WR.
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by the way here are Diggs' rookie stats with the Vikings
52 catches on 84 targets (62%) for 720 yards (13.8 yards per catch) and 4 TDs.
Shakir was an afterthought as a rookie, but here are his stats from last year
39 catches on 45 targets (86.7%) for 611 yards (15.7 yards per catch) and 2 TDs.
In his young career Shakir's stats are
49 catches on 65 targets (75.4%) for 772 yards (15.8 yards per catch) and 3 TDs. Kind of looks alot like Diggs.
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37 minutes ago, BillsVet said:
It is a question how a flex TE who averaged 9 yards per catch last year suddenly becomes their deep threat. And none of Samuel, Shakir, or Hollins are that guy really. They don't offer the versatility, they don't separate, and their limited to being short to intermediate guys against
Everyone expects these WR's will get production and people will move up to the next position on the depth chart seamlessly. Big ask for guys who've never been covered by the opponent's top DB's.
No one said Kincaid would be a deep threat. However your characterization of Shakir is completely wrong. Shakir had 17 explosive plays of 20 yards or more last season on just 45 targets. (Diggs had 19 explosive plays on 160 targets). He averaged 15.6+ yards per catch. I don't think separation and getting open or YAC was an issue for Shakir last season. From week 7 through the playoffs he was on pace for about 850 yards for the season. His number of explosive plays per reception was amongst the highest in the NFL last season. Don't forget we only targeted him 5 times in the first 6 weeks of the season. What would he have done last season if he had been integrated into the offense all season?
In addition, Shakir is the about the same size and speed as the departed Diggs. This isn't to say he'll be a good as Diggs, but he doesn't have to be. He just as has to improve on last season. Considering he was only targeted by Josh 45 times in the regular season, what will he do with 80 or 90 targets?
Also Kincaid was also on pace for approx. 850 yards from week 7 through the playoffs. He was only targeted 19 times in the first 6 weeks of the season. He was also a rookie last season. What will he do when he is fully integrated into the offense? By the way, unlike Diggs and Davis, Kincaid and Shakir (& Cook) all caught 80%+ of their targets last season. Davis was in the 54% area and Diggs after starting the year around 74% fell off to 62% from week 7 through the playoffs.
Sure there are alot of question marks, but at some point you have to stop paying for other teams' castoffs and develop your own targets for Josh. Beane correctly bit the bullet and is sticking with the guys who actually caught their targets last season.
I outlined in a different post that we don't need any of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid or Coleman to be stars this season. All we need is for them to be consistent decent football and our WR/TE rooms will as good if not better than last year.
PS we didn't have a deep threat last season either. Samuel is a burner but admittedly he's never been used in that role, but then again he's never played with a QB who could get him the ball deep consistently.
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12-5 and at least the Conference Championship.
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22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
If he wins the starting job as a rookie, he will be the steal of the draft.
Correct, unless some receiver in the 5th round becomes Puca Nucua 2.0.
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This is going to be the most dynamic offense the Bills have run with Josh Allen at the helm.
People are lamenting the loss of Diggs. Don’t. He was becoming a burden to the success of the offense. The requirement to feed him the football harmed our ability to get more players involved in the offense.
Shakir had only 5 targets in the first 6 weeks of the season and Kincaid only 19. Once they started to involve Kincaid and Shakir, Digg’s reception % fell from 74% (weeks 1-6) to 62% for the rest of the season. I don’t know if it was injury, sulking or something else, but the downturn in his play was significant and troubling.
Beane has correctly decided that younger and cheaper is better going forward. He has also decided, correctly, not to replace Diggs. Instead he has decided to play “moneyball” with the Bills receiving group and make up the loss of Davis’ and Digg’s production in the aggregate by adding two players with needed skills to the two up and coming returning receivers (Shakir and Kincaid) and that is burner speed (Samuel) and a tough redzone/endzone target (Coleman), although I think Coleman’s presence will open space for Kincaid and Knox in that area.
Instead of having one Prima Donna suck all the oxygen out of the room (Diggs), Josh is free to pass to whomever is open without worrying about some guy sulking on the sidelines. I’m looking forward to Josh targeting the guys who get open.
I also think the combo of Cook and Davis is going to be a huge asset for the Bills. Both will be strong in the passing game, but both will help us run out the clock when needed. Teams that can throw the ball all over the place, but also grind out victories on the ground are a nightmare for DCs.
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3 hours ago, Logic said:
Revisiting this issue a few days later, it still comes down to this for me:
Being one injury away from Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter playing significant starting snaps on offense is just not ideal in any way, shape, or form. Depending on a 20 year old rookie to be productive out of the gate and to be one of your starting three WRs when you play as much 11 personnel as the Bills do is not ideal in any way, shape, or form.
They HAVE to get one more legit guy for this WR room. Have to. It's impossible for me to believe that Brandon Beane really thinks a Shaver/Shorter/Hamler/Isabella/Cephus is the answer to this problem.
If so, it's hard for me to conclude anything other than that this WR corps has the potential to be the worst since 2019.
I have my fingers tightly crossed that there will be a post June 1st move of some kind.Where is this mythical receiver going to play and how much is he going to cost? Beane didn’t pay Samuel $8 mill to sit him. Shakir and Kincaid are your top returning players and Beane just drafted Coleman with his top pick. Those are the Bills top 4 receivers. I understand you want someone over Hollins in the WR room. However, how much O PT is the WR4 actually going to get as the 6th passing option (behind Cook) or 7th passing option (behind Cook & Knox)? 1-2 targets per game max? Unless someone gets hurt they may not even be active some weeks. No established player is coming here to fill that role and Beane isn’t going to pay someone else more than Hollins to fill the role.
Hollins is an experienced vet who did step up and have a good year when someone got hurt. He is also a special teams ace and will dress every week because of it. Sorry but he is the WR 4 and is an upgrade on Sherfield. The battle in camp will be for WR5 between Shorter and NFL vets Isabella, Hamler and Cephus. I don’t expect the Bills to keep 6 WRs on the active roster. If I had to guess, Hamler wins the job and works with the rookie CB Hardy as the kick returners. -
The average Josh season is 390 receptions on 590 attempts for 4400 yards snd 35 TDs
Last year’s departed players caught 197 balls of 308 targets (64%), for 2300 yards and 17 TDs
The returning players caught 186 balls on 234 targets (80%), for 1980 yards and 11 TDs
Kincaid is the returning team leader in targets (91) and catches (73) for 673 yards. Shakir leads all returnees in yards per catch at 15.67%.
Cook leads returnees in passing TD catches with 4.
Using basic math, we have about 200 receptions to re-allocate across this roster.
1) Coleman - Davis, as a rookie was in the WR 3/4 role behind Beasley and Diggs, sharing PT with John Brown. He had 35 catches for 599 yards and 7 TDs. Imho, for Coleman, those numbers the minimum we should expect. I’m also not expecting 900 yards + from Coleman given the numerous other targets. Prediction, 42 catches for 700 yards and 8 TDs.
2) Samuel - Outside his breakout year in Carolina, Samuel has been worth about 650 yards on 60 catches with 4 TDs. I can see those numbers going up some, But, I’d be happy with that level of production.
3) Shakir - He had 611 yards on only 39 catches. He spent most of last year being the 3rd option and not even that until week 7. What’s he going to do when he is fully part of the offense? From week 7 through the playoffs, Shakir was on pace for an 850 yard season. I suspect Brady will give him twice as many targets this season (thus around 90) and be rewarded with 70 catches for around 1000 yards and at least 6 TDs.
4) Kincaid - Like Shakir he blossomed after week 6. He was also on a pace for about 850 yards from week 7 through the playoffs. I’m expecting further improvement this season. I think we’ll see 90 catches on 115 targets for 950 yards and 6 TDs
5) Cook - He had 1500 yards from scrimmage last season. Brady will feed him again this season. He has 44 of 54 receiving (445 yards) last year with 4 TDs. In Carolina in 2020, the RBs received over 100 targets. I can easily see Cook getting to 65 targets next season with 50 catches for 500 yards and 5 Tds.
6) Knox - I’m expecting a similar season to last year - 22/36 for 186 and 2 TDs7) Hollins - He was 18/30 for 250 last year - That seems about right as well. Maybe he’ll score once here.
That looks like a very exciting young group. Kincaid leads in catches, Shakir in yards, Coleman in TDs and Josh has his best season as a pro.
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2 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I think we do need other receivers, yes. It's a position at which injuries are common. So far Shakir has been durable, but he's also not yet seen more than 50% of the snaps. Samuel has been durable the last couple years but again, last year ~50% of the snaps.
Remember 2022 where the plan going into the season was evidently to platoon Crowder and McKenzie? Then Crowder broke his leg, and it was all up to McKenzie. That meant when Davis got dinged, we had Jake Kumerow, Isaiah Hodgins, and Tanner Gentry seeing playing time, and after we lost Isaiah Hodgins to an injury-crunch at DB waiver move and Kumerow went down, we were hauling Brown and Beas off the sofa (our WR equivalent of bringing in Klein).
So yes, I agree with you that last year's bottom-of-roster WR and Cephus are competing for #5 and possibly #6 on the roster, but the quality of those guys can really make or break a season - just like the quality of the LB at the bottom of the depth chart.
And I'd really like an upgrade there. I'd like to see Shakir-Coleman-Samuel-better receiver-Hollins-better receiver, albeit it's possible we only keep 5 WR on the roster and more TE depending upon what kind of offense Brady wants to run, in which case yeah, #6 is gonna have to be a guy we can keep on the practice squad.
But we still need one more guy, and not persuaded Quintez Cephus is The One rather than a chap competing for #6 with the rest of them.
I'm also not persuaded that Beane sees it that way, in which case Shades of 2019
If you are a quality FA are you coming here to be the 6th and possibly the 7th receiving option behind Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Cook and possibly Knox? I wouldn’t.
If you are Beane, are you really going to invest a large amount of your limited cap space on a guy who would enter camp at the 6th or 7th receiving option after you invested in Hollins, plus you have a rookie draft pick in Shorter plus 2 guys with NFL experience in Cephus and Hamler already on your roster? I think it’s much more likely that Beane spends his cap on upgrading S. Adding someone like Simmons would have much more impact on the team than adding a 6th/7th receiving option
Given what Beane did last season with Douglas and our extra 2nd and 4th in 2025, I’d expect Beane to acquire a quality receiver in trade if one of top 3 wide receivers went down with a long-term injury then spending money on a guy now and not really play him.
Rookie class- best Buffalo bills career
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
The NFL stands for Not For Long.
1. Van Pran - 10 year plus career+
2. Bishop - 10 year career. Good safeties can easily play into their 30s
3. Coleman - receivers seem to burn out in their early 30s. 7-8 years
After those 3, it’s hard a gauge
4. Carter - it will depend if he can develop into a starter. As a rotational player maybe 5-6 years, although Harrison Phillips is playing good ball since he left.
5. Davis - He plays out his rookie deal and then maybe plays a year or two elsewhere. Too much tread already off the tire.
6. Solomon and Ulofoshio. Odds are they don’t even play out their rookie deals. Ulofoshio is older and Solomon small for his position.
7. Hardy. Feels like the Andy Isabella of CBs. Lots of years on practice squads.
8. The two OTs. They won’t play a down in the NFL.