GASabresIUFan
-
Posts
654 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by GASabresIUFan
-
-
1 hour ago, PBF81 said:
BTW, slightly off-topic but related, why did Kincaid's YPG production diminish under Brady in terms of YPG and TDs? How about why Shakir only scored 1 TD under Brady? Is that problematic going into this season given that the two most familiar targets for Allen averaged a season-totaling 880 Yards & 2 TDs and 690 & 0 TDs under Brady?
Besides the 2 TDs Shakir had in the playoffs?
Josh is a dual threat QB. Showing only throwing stats doesn’t give the full picture. You asked why the receivers weren’t scoring TDs under Brady, well Josh had 11 rushing TDs under Brady (7 under Dorsey) and Cook had 4 TDs rushing and receiving under Brady (2 under Dorsey). Maybe the ball simply went elsewhere when we needed a score?
By the way Diggs and Davis were already failing prior to Brady taking over. There is a clear line in their drop-off from week 6 to week 7 and beyond. Diggs’ catch % went from 74% in the first 6 weeks to 61% the rest of the season. Davis was 70% in weeks 1-6 and fell to 47% weeks 7-17.
(Dorsey vs Brady - Diggs catch % 71.6 under Dorsey and 58.7% under Brady; Davis 60% under Dorsey; 46.2 under Brady. It also be noted that Diggs went from 74% in weeks 1-6 to 66.7% in weeks 7-10 under Dorsey). If you ask me, Josh drop in completion % has more to do with diminishing play from Diggs and Davis than from anything else.
The team 5-5 under Dorsey and 7-2 under Brady.
All this is moot anyway. Davis, Diggs, Harty, Sherfield and Murray are gone. They are being replaced by Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, MVS (or Claypool) and Ray Davis. These are much different weapons and probably better weapons for Brady to utilize.
If I was mapping weapon for weapon:
Diggs > Shakir, but closer than you think as Shakir out played him significantly after week 6 on only 1/3 the targets
Coleman > Davis - Don’t be surprised when Coleman gives us better number as a rookie then Davis in his 4th year especially completion %.
Samuel - is likely replacing Shakir in the slot
MVS/Claypool > Harty- either is better than Harty
Hollins > Sherfield
Davis > Murray - Davis is an upgrade over the aging Murray and will likely take some short yardage carries from Josh as well.
-
The conclusion is that they wanted to win football games and having Josh run more helped win those games down the stretch. So did rushing Cook more and throwing more to Kincaid and Shakir.
I don’t think we can fully extrapolate from what Brady the interim OC did to what Brady the OC is going to do. Brady the OC has a much different group of weapons to work with including 4 new WRs in his top 5, including a 1st pick WR and a FA vet with sick speed, plus a new bruising RB (Davis) with good hands. He also has a full off-season to build his plan vs trying to cobble together a winning formula on the fly with a weapon group designed for a different offense. Heck, we don’t even know who will be in the slot and whether one of the vets (Claypool or MVS) will even make the team.
Honestly, what he managed to do last season, going 6-1 as the interim OC, was nothing more than astonishing.
-
10 hours ago, PBF81 said:
Under Brady
244 passing yards/game
60.7% compl. %
1.4 TDs/game
1.0 INTs/game
1.6 Sacks/game
85.5 Rating
7.5 YPA
Hurried on 9.2% of attempts
Hit on 10.0% of attempts
1st-Down% 32.8% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs)
Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 9.1 Yards out
How much of the lower completion % was on Josh? Diggs and Davis only caught 46 of 84 targets (54.8%) over those 7 weeks that Brady was interim OC. The team also went 6-1 by spreading the ball around and better integrating the running game. You also forgot Josh's 8 rushing TDs in the last 7 weeks vs 7 rushing TDs in the first 10 weeks.
-
1
-
-
We can’t know at this point because the Bills don’t know yet until they see how everyone fits during camp. Brady certainly has ideas but how he eventually utilizes Shakir vs Samuel is going to be one of the great camp debates.
In corner one: Samuel. Big FA signing. NFL vet. Experienced in a Brady offense. An inch shorter than Diggs but with track speed. In fact, he’s the fastest of the Bills receivers who is certain to make the team (Hamler may be faster). Has outside experience, but 75% of his snaps have been in the slot.
In corner two: Shakir: Shakir is about the same size and speed as Diggs. He played outside in college. He and Kincaid are the only returning Bills with game experience with Josh.
He lead the Bills last year in :
1. Yards per catch - 15+
2. Yards per target3. Catch percentage - 84%+
4. Explosive plays per target. Shakir had 17 on only 45 targets. One of the best ratios in the NFL. (FYI: Diggs had 19 on 160 targets).
Because of Samuel’s track speed, I can see Brady trying him on deeper patterns than he has run in his career prior to joining the Bills. In Carolina, Brady had two guys who he weren’t really slot options in Moore and Anderson and slotted Samuel there and also utilized his speed out of the backfield.
Here, he won’t need Samuel’s speed in the backfield with Davis and Cook already on the team. However, he’ll need Samuel’s speed on fly patterns and deep posts, which can be run on the boundary or in the slot.
Ultimately I don’t think it will matter. Where they lineup and what patterns the two guys run will vary significantly from game to game as Brady tries to get matchups he likes.
-
1
-
-
Actually this is the first time I have really ever really followed the Bills off-season closely. What drew me in this winter was seeing how Beane was going to navigate the salary cap mess he created. I've been hoping for a youth movement for years and I've been advocating for him to invest draft capital in skill players for years and starting with the Cook he finally reached the same decision.
It also helped that my Hoosiers basketball team and the Sabres both sucked this winter, freeing up my time to invest in Beane's retooling.
I'm completely impressed with what Beane has done this off-season. I know people are upset about Diggs (I'm not) and still hope for more WR help (It's not coming) and more depth in other areas, but look at all he's accomplished.
1) He got us out of cap hell for the foreseeable future.
2) He has reshaped the roster from one of the oldest in the NFL to the middle of the pack in one off-season.
3) He got younger, cheaper (and imho more talented) while maintaining 16 of 22 starters. You could also argue that Rapp was also a starter by year end and that Miller is returning to a starting role.
4) He completely re-tooled the WR and S rooms. Gone are WRs Diggs, Davis, Harty and Sherfield. In with Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, MVS and Claypool. At S, the aging Hyde and Poyer were replaced with Bishop and former KC starter Edwards. 2024 marked the first time Beane has invested premium draft picks on either WR or S. If we are being honest these overhauls were overdue. Hyde and Poyer were significantly diminished players in 2023 and Davis, Harty and Sherfield were terrible last year. Once we looked at the falloff in Digg's play, it also becamse obvious why he was traded as well. McD is a great DB coach and I expect the trio of Edwards, Rapp and Bishop will outperform the 2023 versions of Hyde and Poyer. I'm also excited to see the pass targets spread more evenly over a larger and more talented WR room.
5) Some position groups are better than ever. Our RBs are the best we've had since Beane became GM. The combo of Cook and Davis should be really fun. The LBs, TEs and OL are the deepest that I can remember.
I'm excited for the coming season. I like the new look Bills. They are younger, more talented and have a much higher upside. They will have some growing pains, but I'm excited to see Josh play without being tethered to feeding Diggs.
-
2
-
-
2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:
We seem to have polar opposite views. From my angle your view looks defeatist. Beane has successfully lowered your expectations to the bare minimum, you are prepared for the worst.
For me an additional WR (like Metcalf) along with another safety, (I would say Hyde over Simmons at this point because the point is to develop Bishop.) and the Bills have a contender. I don't know what can be done about DE but one deficiency can be worked around.
Defeatest? Far from it. My point of view is that this is proper team management. Instead of paying for assets we may not need putting us back in cap hell, I think our team is ready to compete for championship as is because I have faith in Beane and his management team’s ability to draft guys who can contribute immediately. Last season we had 6 1st and 2nd year players (Cook, Benford, Benard, Kincaid, Shakir and Torrance) become starters and quickly develop into core players. We also had other kids, like Williams, step up when needed.
Beane is finally investing real draft capital in skill players like Cook, Kincaid, Coleman and Bishop and the first thing you want to do is bring in outside players to keep some of them from playing. How does that make any sense? This team could have as many as 3 starter from this draft this season (Coleman, Bishop and SVP) and 2-3 (or more) immediate contributors in Carter, Davis and Hardy (KR). This team has needed to get younger and cheaper for the last few years and it’s finally happening. If these players develop as I (and Beane and many others hope), we’ll finally go from SB contender to SP participant.The beauty of my plan, is that it’s flexible. One of the kids doesn’t work out yet or we hsve another major injury, Beane will have a war chest so the we can overcome the loss of White or Milano or Jones. Spend all your cap on Metcalf, what do you left when the inevitable injuries occur?
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, Magox said:
Our outside boundary corners are Douglas, Benford, Elam and Ingram.
Safeties are (R) Bishop, Rapp, Edwards and Hamlin.
We are lacking depth at these positions, an injury or two and those position groupings are in trouble.
What happened to Cam Lewis (cb/s) and rookie Hardy? Both are making the team.
The best thing the Bills can do is nothing with the extra cap. Because of the youth transition on the roster many positions still look like they need help. If the kids step up, like Elam at CB or Bishop at S, then the issue goes away. If they don’t or significant injuries occur, Beane will have a war chest to fix the problem like he did with Douglas last year. This is one of those times to be patient.
-
1
-
4
-
1
-
-
31 minutes ago, wppete said:
Not even close. Justin Fields should never have been a starter and 2nd or 3rd string QB at bestYou do realize that Fields had a higher completion % and a higher passer rating in college then Williams did?
-
3 hours ago, mannc said:
That’s not fair at all.
He’s Sam Darnold 2.0.
at least he won't be Ryan Leaf 2.0
-
Justin Fields 2.0.
-
Diggs gotta Diggs
-
1
-
2
-
-
Good article in the Athletic detailing how WRs and their contracts have gotten out of hand and how teams like the Bills, KC and GB are moving on from high priced WRs. Essentially all the WR are so talented that they are becoming fungible. This is "moneyball" at it's finest.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5510422/2024/05/22/justin-jefferson-contract-nfl-wide-receivers/
-
Nice article about Claypool. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40192905/chase-claypool-mission-right-now
I’ve said since he was signed that he is my favorite for the WR4. Youth, size and speed and already impressing the coaches. If he can come in and play to his potential, I think he’ll make Coleman’s transition easier and give the Bills the best 1-5 WRs they have had since drafting Josh.
-
1
-
-
We started Kincaid and Torrence last year. I never even considered the possibility that Coleman wouldn't start unless he gets injured (G-d forbid).
The starting WRs next season are Coleman, Shakir and Samuel. Everyone else is battling for WR4, WR5 and maybe a WR6. Hollins is making the team as a special teams ace and part time receiver. After that everyone else is just battling for a job. My money is on Claypool. MVS barely catches 50% of his targets. What do we need that for? Hamler is small and fast but injury prone. Shorter is tall but slow. That leaves Claypool who is big and fast. If he has a good pre-season, he'll win the job.
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, Billl said:
Just saw that Vegas has him right at 750, so he’s likely closer to that second group. Seems like a big ask, but there are plenty of targets available.
The players most similar to Coleman drafted where Coleman was are Higgins (33rd) and Pittman (34th) in 2020. Higgins had 900 yards as a rookie and Pittman only 500, but Pittman was not an immediate starter like Coleman will be. Also the average WR drafted 25-40 over the last 5 seasons has averaged 600+ yards and only one true bust. I think it's perfectly reasonable to project Coleman at or around 700 yards next season.
-
I think people need a refresher on which receivers were and were not effective for the Bills last season.
After week 6, these were the top receivers numbers through the playoffs (players listed by total yards)
1. Kincaid - 659 yards on 83 tgts/ 64 catches 3TDs; 77% reception rate, 7.94 yards per target
2. Shakir - 646 yards on 52/45 3TDs (2 in the playoffs); 86.5% receptions rate, 12.42 yards/target
3. Diggs - 636 yards on 111/68 3TDs; 61.3% reception rate, 5.73 yards/target
4. Davis - 405 yards on 51/22 3TDs; 43% reception rate, 7.94 yards/target
5. Cook - 331 yards on 45/38 4TDs; 84.4% reception rate; 7.36 yards/target
Is it really any wonder that Beane moved on from Diggs and Davis, while keeping Shakir, Cook and Kincaid. They are younger, cheaper and probably better at this point.
We need to move past this "must have a no. 1 receiver" crap. It’s time to spread the ball around to players who actually catch the vast majority of their targets and stop lamenting about the loss of an over 30 vet with declining production who clearly isn’t a fit for Brady’s offense. Give me a roster with 5 or 6 guys with 500-900 yards receiving next season and I’ll give you a playoff team that will be hard to stop.
-
1
-
1
-
3
-
-
17 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Thanks for your response. You duplicated posts, by the way; NBD but you might want to delete one.
As far as hard to believe, no, it's not hard to believe that individually, they can improve. In the post you're responding to, I laid out the jump in production by Beasley, Brown, and Diggs upon joining the Bills and having Allen as their QB.
What I think is wishful thinking, is that we'll get the number of improvements we need to sustain an elite passing offense. Even Kansas City struggled through the season offensively and finished with the 15th ranked offense, though Mahomes did pass for 4,183 yds - and their offense still had Kelce as its linchpin. Fortunately for them, Rice "got it" and took off towards the end of the season, and the rest is history.
So something similar could happen with the Bills, although, KC was carried through the season by great defense and I'm not sure our defense is gonna be there this year.
But KC's depth behind Kelce and Rice was Justin Watson and MVS who may not even make the Bills. Pacheco was their best RB. Our 3rd and 4th option and RB are all better players.
That KC won with defense and really only 2 consistent options catching the ball is a true testament to Reid and Mahomes.
-
48 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
The legitimate question is: are all 4 guys in fact capable of delivering 900-1000 yds?
2023 (career best)
Kincaid 673 (same)
Shakir 611 (same)
Samuel 613 (851 in '20)
Coleman rookie
MVS 315 (690 in '20)
It can happen - Diggs output jumped 36% in 2020; John Brown 48% in 2019; Cole Beasley 16% in 2019 then another 24% in 2020.
But expecting it to happen simultaneously for 4 or 5 guys seems a bit improbable to me.
I said capable. I didn’t say it was going to happen. However, Shakir (5 targets) and Kincaid (19 targets), who were basically not thrown to for the first 6 weeks last season. Then from week 7 through the playoffs Shakir put up 646 (on only 52 targets). That’s a 845 yard pace or 12.43 yards per target. What if he now gets say 90 targets? At 12.43 per target that’s 1118 yards. By the way Shakir jumped from 161 to 611 (+75 in the playoffs) between year 1 & year 2. This season he’ll be a primary target for the first time.
Kincaid had 659 yards on 83 targets from week 7 through the playoffs or about 8 yards per target. That translates to about 872 yards over a full season of proper usage. Is it really much of a stretch to say he’ll be even better over a full season when integrated into the offense in his 2nd year and from day 1?
As to Samuel he had 1000 yards from scrimmage when last he played for Brady. If anyone knows how to get the most out of Samuel it’s Brady and Josh will be the best QB he’s played with.
As to Coleman, his game, speed and size are similar to Higgins and Pittman who were drafted 33rd and 34th in 2020. Each has become a 1000 yard receiver. Higgins had 900+ as a rookie.
Josh is going to throw for 4300-4500 next season. Those yards are going to be divided much more equitably than in years past. Remember Diggs (160), Davis (81), Sherfield (22) and Harty (21) had 284 targets last season. Those opportunities are going to go somewhere. Is it really hard to believe that Kincaid will go from 80 to 120, Shakir 50 to 90, Samuel gets his usually 95 and Coleman gets 60-70?
-
4
-
-
20 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Thank you. I don't know how the hell does anyone get they didn't want Coleman? We won't know if BTJ was the last 1st round he had rated or not, but they really liked Coleman period.
If you look at all the work they put into Coleman including a top 30 visit and a private workout, they are is no way they weren’t high on Coleman. Also they chose Coleman over McConkey and Mitchell.
-
1
-
2
-
-
Once MVS signed their was no reason to gamble on Cephus.
-
This is going to be a crazy camp for all the receivers including Coleman, Shakir and Samuel. Shakir is the only significant9 returnee and he may be playing a new position. Coleman and Samuel have never played with Josh.
Everyone else is new to the organization or in the case of Isabella, Shavers and Shorter, have limited or no actual regular season PT with the Bills. I honestly don;t know how this will shake out which is why I started the thread. I do wonder how they will adequately evaluate all these potential targets for Josh while Josh has to work to build chemistry with the starters (Samuel, Coleman and Shakir).
The veteran player that most intrigues me is Claypool. He is big and fast, but has worn out his welcome in three previous places. Still at 25 there is real potential that can be recovered. 2 800 yard seasons are hard to ignore.
-
Shakir, Samuel, and Coleman have guaranteed roster spots. So which strand(s) of spaghetti stick to wall (make the roster)? Will the Bills keep 2 or 3 of the strands?
1. Mack Hollins - 1 year $2,600,000 (cap hit 2.48 - Dead Cap -$1.1)
6'4" 221, age 30, 4th rd pikc (118th Philly) in 2017 out of UNC
40 - 4.53, 10 - 1.59
Career - 95 games, 27 starts, 222 Tgt, 131 Rec, 1691 yards, 12.9 yards/c, 59% reception %
Best - 2022 - 17g, 16 starts 94 Tgt, 57 Rec, 690 yards, 12.1 yards/c, 60.6% reception %
2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 1 year $1,125,000 (cap hit 1.125 - Dead Cap -$TBD)
6'4" 206, age 29, 5th rd pick (174th) in 2018 out of S Florida.
40 - 4.37, 10 - 1.49
Career - 92 games, 60 starts, 370 Tgt, 186 Rec, 3155 yards, 17 yards/c, 50.3% reception %
Best - 2020 - 16g, 12 starts 63 Tgt, 33 Rec, 690 yards, 20.9 yards/c, 52.4% reception %
3. Chase Claypool - 1 year $1,135,000 (cap hit 1.085 - Dead Cap -$25K)
6'4" 238, age 25, 2nd rd pick (49th, Pitt) in 2020 out of ND.
40 - 4.42, 10 - 1.52
Career - 58 games, 32 starts, 314 Tgt, 175 Rec, 2261 yards, 12.9 yards/c, 55.7% reception %
Best - 2020 - 16g, 6 starts 109 Tgt, 62 Rec, 873 yards, 14.1 yards/c, 56.9% reception %
4. KJ Hamler - 1 year $1,055,000 (cap hit 1.055 - Dead Cap -0)
5'9" 178, age 24, 2nd rd pick (46th, Den) in 2020 out of Penn St.
40 - 4.36,
Career - 23 games, 6 starts, 80 Tgt, 42 Rec, 620 yards, 14.8 yards/c, 52.5% reception %
Best - 2020 - 13g, 4 starts 56 Tgt, 30 Rec, 381 yards, 12.7 yards/c, 53.6% reception %
5. Quintez Cephus - 1 year $1,055,000 (cap hit $1.055 - Dead Cap -8K)6'1" 208, age 26, 5th rd pick (166th, Det) in 2020 out of Wisconsin.40 - 4.73, 10 - 1.59Career - 22 games, 6 starts, 60 Tgt, 37 Rec, 568 yards, 15.4 yards/c, 61.7% reception %Best - 2020 - 13g, 2 starts 35 Tgt, 20 Rec, 349 yards, 17.5 yards/c, 61.8% reception %6. Andy Isabella - 1 year $1,133,000 (cap hit 993K - Dead Cap -8K)
5'9" 188, age 27, 2nd rd pick (62nd, AZ) in 2019 out of U Mass.
40 - 4.31, 10 - 1.45
Career - 43 games, 3 starts, 54 Tgt, 33 Rec, 447 yards, 13.5 yards/c, 61.1% reception %
Best - 2020 - 13g, 2 starts 35 Tgt, 21 Rec, 224 yards, 10.7 yards/c, 60% reception %
7. Justin Shorter - 3 years $4,163,948 (cap hit $876K - Dead Cap - 243K)
6'4" 229, age 24, 5th rd pick (150 th, Buf) in 2023 out of Florida.
40 - 4.55, 10 - 1.59
8. Tyrell Shavers - 2 yr $1,764,000 (cap hit $799.5 - Dead Cap - 9K)
6'4" 211, age 24, UDFA (Buf) in 2023 out of San Diego St.
40 - 4.59, 10 - 1.63
-
3
-
-
Special teams
-
1
-
1
-
-
Can we play the 2024 season first and see how that goes?
How do you envision Khalil Shakir being utilized in this years offense?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
You specifically have asked in this thread why Josh's completion % fell under Brady and why our receivers weren't scoring under Brady. I have given you explanations on both and therefore neither is out of context. One, Diggs and Davis sucked after week 6 ands got worse as the season progress thus leading to Diggs having a 58% catch % and Davis in the 40% area under Brady. Second, as I previously pointed out, Brady diversified the offense and the ball went to Cook and Allen near the end zone thereby limiting the TD catches to the receivers.
As to Singletary and Moss, who cares. They have never played here under Brady so why are they relevant to this discussion? The Bills drafted Davis to be this team's version of Kenneth Davis, a tough running and good catching, 3rd down back for this offense. Not an offense run by Daboll or Dorsey. How those guys utilized a 3rd down back is meaningless.
As to their 3 RB's pedigree, I'll disagree there as well. Davis has the fastest 40 time (4.52 vs 4.66 & 4.65). He outgained Singletary from scrimmage in their final year and Davis earned his numbers in the SEC vs Singletary at Flordia Atlantic. Moss put up the best counting stats, but again he did it in the D challenged Pac 12. Just because some was drafted in the 4th rd vs the 3rd round is not proof that they have a better pedigree. It's more likely proof of a weaker RB group in the draft when Moss & Singletary were drafted or a stronger over all class in Davis' year.
These are the 3 key stats. The Bills rushed more, turned the ball over less, and won 7of 9.