GASabresIUFan
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Posts posted by GASabresIUFan
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No, just no. The guy only caught 50% of his targets with Pat Mahomes as his QB.
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Instead of starting a new thread I thought I’d add some thoughts from TBN’s interview with Bills Exec Torrence Gray as it seems like a nice complimentary to the embedded video. https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-terrance-gray-brandon-beane/article_63b36b42-0c6b-11ef-bf81-63b40f6a2aa7.html
Really insightful info in the article. I received a real feel for the Bills process in general and what specifically they were looking for in this draft. It’s pretty clear they were looking to fill needs with veteran college players ready to contribute now. Carter, Van Pran, Davis, Solomon, and Ulofoshio all played 40+ college games. The Senior Bowl (and East West game to a lesser extent) practices and interviews were huge factors on who Beane drafted. The Bills attended the pro-days for all 10 draftees, but only Coleman had a private workout and a top 30 interview. Most of the guys had leadership roles on their respective college teams. Work ethic (or “want to”) was a major factor; aka guys who want to get better. Gray pointed out how Ulofoshio started as a walk on and earned a scholarship. They also have a special process of special teams guys like kick returners. They also looked for special athletes on their late round OL. Grable started as a 230 lbs QB.
After reading the article, I really like all the picks. I know most won’t pan out long-term for a variety of reasons, but it won’t be for a lack of trying.
I’ve been a Bills fan all my life. The first game I attended as a little kid was 1969, but for some reason this particular off-season has really elevated my interest in the team. Maybe it’s my curiosity on how Beane was going to get the team out of cap hell (which he created), while somehow making the team younger and better. Outside of safety (I’ll feel better if Bishop bests out Rapp or Edwards), I think he has actually accomplished those goals. I’ve been wanting Beane to invest in receivers for years and he has finally done it with Kincaid and Coleman.
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Wasn’t Shakir a starter last year?
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11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
"In aggregate" is literally just a re-phrasing of "with numbers".
Teams that are matchup nightmares have players who can't be neutralized by a single defender. They require extra attention.
Like Ted Washington serving as a one man run defense and creating one-on-one's for other Bills defenders. When they cut him, the aggregate were no match at all for opposing running games.
Who do the Bills have in their WR corps that commands that extra attention? What they have right now are a bunch of career complementary WR along with a raw rookie in Coleman.
Your Ted Washington analogy doesn’t work with a WR group that has 2-4 players spread across the field on every play. Neither does your comment that our receivers are career complimentary players. Samuel is a career starter. Shakir is a 3rd year player who was finally moved into the game plan until week 7 and will be a 1st year full time starter. Once Shakir got into the lineup he became a serious weapon with 600+ yards on only 45 targets (with 17 explosive plays). This is 850 yards pace in a full season. Kincaid, once he was fully inserted also in week 7, also paced at around 850 yards. Considering their youth to pigeon hole them as “complimentary” players is extremely premature. Kincaid is on his way to being our Kelce. Last I looked Kelce was a player that demanded “extra attention.”
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7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:
The plan is intriguing, but it only works if all the parts are reasonably dangerous. I'd feel better if they added an established WR of the caliber of DK Metcalf. @BADOLBILZ suggested as much, and it seems an excellent idea to me. I think, but I may be misremembering, that you are one of those who cautions that there isn't money for that. I think after 6/1, they could find a way to manage it.
Beane has already said that money isn’t going to a WR. I think he said in a recent interview that the June 1 money is going to used to sign the rookies and for operating cap space. I think what he means by that is having cap room to add someone like Douglas in case of injury during the season.
I’m pretty bullish on the plan. I watched the Packers 4 1st and 2nd year receivers and 2 1st and 2nd years TEs put on a show last season and the Bills group of Kincaid, Knox, Coleman, Samuel, and Shakir are at least if not more talented. If one of Claypool, Cephus or Hamler can beat out Hollins for the 4th WR job all the better.
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3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
The problem with that argument is that it doesn't satisfy the perceived need to replace Diggs. You are complaining about the attention/scrutiny of Coleman but that's why. If there were a perceived better answer to Diggs they'd not be fixated on Coleman.
And the reality is that it's not as cut and dried as you are perceiving it either. Why would that work? You don't replace difference makers with volume.
It's a matchup league.
Can you win IN SPITE of failing to replace production in the passing game? Yes. The Chiefs decided to ride or die with their investments in Rice/Toney/Moore in 2023 instead of adding a veteran like DeAndre Hopkins to their WR corps...........and their scoring output subsequently fell by a whopping 125 points from 2022 and Patrick Mahomes had by far his worst statistical season as a pro.
But they eventually won the SB.
So one can argue that it might not matter in terms of whether the team wins the SB or not.......but you are as likely to replace the output of a guy like Diggs with a receiving corps where nobody on it has ever even put up a 900 yard season in the NFL as Gregg Williams was likely to be able to "stop the run with numbers" after Donahoe jettisoned Ted Washington.
Keon Coleman didn't even put up 900 yards in a season in college. We can discount Diggs production all we want because we didn't like his attitude........but it's not going to be easy to replace that.
You are on the right track. Beane’s goal is not to replace the ball hogging Diggs, but to make up his production in the aggregate with 4 more or less equal targets in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Coleman. Instead of having one 1200 yard receivers, he’ll field an armada for 4 guys all capable of 900-1000 yards.
We may have a different receiving leader each week, because the game plan will be designed to exploit the weaknesses in opposing defenses. If the team can’t stop the run, they’ll receive a steady diet of Cook and Davis. If they can’t cover the slot, they’ll receive a steady diet of Kincaid and Shakir. If they can’t cover the outside, Coleman and Samuel will be the weapons. The goal is to make the Bills’ offense a matchup nightmare for DCs.
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5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Over-emphasized is how I would put it. The Bills have created this scenario where the guy is basically REPLACING Diggs in the eyes of fans and media this year. Now if they acquire a WR1 after June 1 I think Coleman then becomes a standard day 2 draft pick with lot's of room to breathe/develop. Which he needs because he is raw, IMO. Hard for fans to replace something as important to them as Diggs with nothing though.
Again, Coleman isn’t replacing Diggs. He is a completely different kind of player. Coleman is replacing Davis. Samuel or Shakir will be replacing Diggs.
Davis 6’2” 225
Coleman 6’3” 213
Diggs 6’0“ 191
Shakir 6’0” 190
Samuel 5’11” 195
Samuel or Shakir on the outside is going to be one of the big questions in camp. Shakir is know as an excellent route runner both inside and out. Both guys have experience outside experience. Shakir’s outside experience was primarily in college. Samuel’s does have outside NFL experience but it’s about 26% of his snaps. Samuel’s better speed might ultimately be the deciding factor.
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I'm beginning to think Keon made be the most over scrutinized draft pick ever other than a QB.
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7 hours ago, <bills4life> said:
Here are the last nine receivers drafted in the first round who haven’t reached 600 yards in a season:
John Ross (9th overall pick in 2017)
N’Keal Harry (32nd overall pick in 2019)
Henry Ruggs (12th overall pick in 2020)
Jalen Reagor (21st overall pick in 2020)
Kadarius Toney (20th overall pick in 2021)
Rashod Bateman (27th overall pick in 2021)
Jameson Williams (12th overall pick in 2022)
Jahan Dotson (16th overall pick in 2022)
Treylon Burks (18th overall pick in 2022)
After crunching the numbers, all the wide receivers listed above fall into one of two groups. Except for John Ross.
Way too early to make a proclamation one way or the other. Scouts get it wrong every bit as much as the best draftniks.
Keon wasn't drafted in the 1st rd.
By the way, since 2019 there have been 10 WR drafted from 25-40. Of the 10, only N'Keal Harry has been a bust so far. The average rookie season is 573 yards. Remove Harry and the average jumps to 625. Higgins (33rd), Pittman (34th), Deebo Samuel (36th) and Aiyuk (25th) are the biggest stars so far from this group. In fact, 5 of the 6 players drafted in 2019 and 2020, classes most similar to this year, have exceeded 1000 yards in a season so far, except the Harry.
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29 minutes ago, mjt328 said:
3. Trading Stefon Diggs for future assets, then only replacing him with a 2nd Round rookie
This isn’t accurate. Coleman is an upgrade on Davis. Odds are that either Samuel or Shakir will line up in Diggs’ old position. The rationale for Samuel is his raw speed and similar size to Diggs and some experience on the boundary. The rationale for Shakir is his nearly identical size and speed to Diggs coupled with his track record of being more explosive than Diggs once he catches the ball. Remember Diggs’ career yards per reception is about 12 vs. Shakir’s 15+.
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21 hours ago, Billy Claude said:
KC (28, 133, 248 => 227), BUF (32. 95. 221 => 227) +0
While certainly not a "bad" trade, it does look like the Bills didn't get any compensation for moving down. IMHO the team trading up should give more value than they receive just like Buffalo did in their 2022 and 2023 trade-ups and Carolina paid Buffalo on the second trade down in 2024.
For Example KC (28, 144, 248 = 223 pts), Buf (32, 95, 221 = 227) +4
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4 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
Hasn't arrived yet. Too slow
I guess he could borrow Rashee Rice's Lamborghini to help get him to camp quicker. Rice certainly doesn't need it any longer.
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7 hours ago, BigDingus said:
I don't see think anyone can say this is more dynamic than the year we added Diggs to pair up with Cole Beasley & John Brown (run by Daboll).
That's still Allen's best year, and we haven't had as exciting an offense as that since.
2020 was certainly Josh’s best season throwing the ball. Brown only played 9 games that season because of injury. Davis was actually the no. 3. However the offense itself in 2020 was not as balanced as it will be going forward. Moss and Singletary had 1500 yards from scrimmage together. Cook alone last season had 1500.
All that said, my post was about the coming year and how much better we became last season once Shakir and Kincaid got involved. Too bad Diggs sulked his way out of town.
I believe this coming season will feature a larger and more diverse group of playmakers than 2020; making the offense ultimately more dynamic.
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8 hours ago, White Linen said:
"If you run 4.3, but you're not smart, you'll never play 4.3".
Great line by Beane.
Raw speed isn't everything even in the NFL. The thought is that speed translates to more explosive plays, but that isn’t always the case.
Here are 4 Bills, recent past and present, with their combine time and their career yards/catch
1. 4.54 - 16.7
2. 4.43 - 15.8
3. 4.46 - 12.3
4. 4.31 - 10.7
Any guesses?
1. Gabe Davis
2. Shakir
3. Diggs
4. Samuel
Clearly there is more to it than just raw speed or Samuel would have the most yards per catch. QB play, position, usage within the offense etc... plays into the numbers. Samuel has been stuck as a slot receiver on mostly mediocre to bad teams. Maybe he finally gets a shot as a boundary receiver. Davis made the most of his catches, but sadly he only caught 55% of his targets over the last 4 years. Shakir's ability to make big plays from the slot is very encouraging going forward.
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52 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
I don't understand anyone writing off Ty Johnson, he played well towards the end of last season. He averaged a good 4.4 yards per carry, he had 8.9 yards per catch and a touchdown in addition to solid play as a backup to end last season he's only 27 with not a lot of tread on his tires as he never had a heavy amount of volume. He will likely be in the lead to be the RB2 going into camp with Davis in a battle to supplant him. I think if Gore Jr shows out and Ty Johnson has a lackluster camp then maybe there is some displacement possibility. But it is a far greater chance Ty makes the roster as the RB2 than he gets cut.
I agree which is why I said Johnson makes the team even if Davis wins the RB2 job. Like Cook and Davis, Johnson runs hard and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Unlike last season, we'll have 3 backs that the coaches can insert without changing the game plan.
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Before the draft Beane said he didn’t have 28 players with a first rd grade and then traded down because of it. Others have said that this draft class only has about 150 players with a draft-able grade. I know from the NHL, most teams don’t have 224 players on their draft day lists. My guess is Beane only had 160-180 on his draft board with another 100 on his priority UDFA list.
I do wonder what goes into the making the list. I imagine the following steps
1. The scouts create a list of 350-400 eligible players and then grade each player from 1-400 based on the combine, film, college coaches info and live viewings.
2. Edit the list based on medical or character issues.
3. Beane and the higher ups edit the list again after the combine, interviews and the senior bowl. I think Beane here upgrades kids on intelligence and leadership. This draft was full of more veteran players who were leaders on their college teams and who excelled at the senior bowl.4. Beane meets with the coaches to discuss team needs and to get coaches feedback on how someone might or might not fit their system. My guess is team needs often serve as a tiebreaker between similarly grades players. This was clearly a needs based draft for the Bills, but I don’t see any real “reaches” because of it. Some have mentioned Carter was a reach, but Kiper had him 93rd.
5. Beane then tiers the players by grade to help him decided when to move up and back.I am surprised by how close Beane’s board was to Kiper’s Top 150
Pick 33 Coleman; MK 33
Pick 60 Bishop; MK 61
Pick 95 Carter; MK 93
Pick 128 Davis; MK 133
Pick 141 Van Pran; MK 120
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Great video. Interesting how much team need played in this draft. Also good insight into how Beane drafts players; intelligence, leadership and character plays a big role. Coleman and Bishop are class A athletes but clearly hard workers. David, Carter and Van Pran, their leadership and intelligence were huge reasons Beane wanted them. After that he was clearly looking for guys that had something special. In hockey, it would be their shot or their skating that was NHL caliber. Here they were looking something each guy brought athletically like Hardy punt return skill or Solomon’s ability to set up OL to get to the QB or the British kid’s freak athletic ability.
Best thing about the video it was it gave you something to root for with each kid. Coleman is a character, but he clearly does his film work to make himself better. Kincaid clearly told Beane how hard Bishop was to play against. Carter looks like he could be President. The two players I really love in this draft are Ray Davis and Van Pran. I loathe UK, but Davis impressed me every time I watched him play. He is a play to whistle type of RB and he and Cook are going to have a ball together. They will make each other work harder and be better. Van Pran is special. I don’t know of it will translate to the pros, but he is the best Center I’ve seen at UGA in the last 30 years. My guess is Cook had some nice things to say.
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Me thinks Worthy won't be enough to solve their WR issues.
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On 5/4/2024 at 2:31 PM, Putin said:
IDK about the stud LB because of his age and injury history , but our new WR is only 25 years old unlike Chicago or especially Miami is coming into a situation we’re he has a chance to win a starting # 3WR job , he has a legitimate franchise QB and we know he’s got the talent and all the tools , and I’m sure he knows that this could be his last opportunity so I’ll wait and see what happens ,
but you’ll can go ahead LOL
Do you think Cook will see more targets then last year ?
Cook will definitely see more targets this year as an extension of the running game. When Brady was in Carolina, Mike Davis had 70 targets and RB group had 100.
My first thought on Claypool is that he has no chance of being the WR3. However, when drafted he had very good speed. (4.42 40 and 1.52 10). For a man 6'4 240 that is really trucking. Assuming he has his head on straight and will gladly assumes any role given to him, I can see him and Coleman sharing the 3/4 roles much like Emmanuel and Davis did in 2021. That year Diggs had 164 targets, Beasley 112, Sanders 72, Knox 71, Davis 63 and Singletary 50. This season I can see a more even distribution between Shakir, Kincaid and Samuel of 100-120 targets each, with Cook, Claypool and Coleman receiving 60 + targets each.
It's really up to Claypool for that scenario to come to pass. Tomlin let him go because of his inconsistency. He has struggled to get on the field the last two years, but at 25 years old and a minimum contract, he is a risk worth taking.
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3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Mike Edwards
Cole Bishop
Taylor Rapp
Cam Lewis
If we can somehow find the cap space for Simmons & a WR trade, then I'd explore that.Otherwise Hyde as a possible rotational player would be fine
Here are PFF's 2023 grades (Yes, I know it's not the end all and be all, but at least it's an indication of where a player is at)
Hyde 64.4
Poyer 73
Edwards 56.5
Rapp 56.4
Simmons 67.9
Jackson 58.6
Both Edwards and Rapp came in as starters to replace injured players on their teams last season and did fairly well. However, If I were Beane, the safety group is our worst position group and really could use another good player. I love the idea of using the June 1 savings on someone like Simmons. Having Simmons, with Rapp, Edwards and Bishop would create a huge competition for a starting job between the 4 and may the best players win. If Rapp and Edwards win the jobs, great! I'd feel much better knowing they earned their PT instead of having starting jobs handed to them.
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3 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:
Yes he's a well known English teacher
I thought that was Grammar Hamlin.
If Damar isn't going to make the team, the Bills should hire him in the organization as a community out-reach director.
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Absolutely.
On my man cave wall I have autographed photos of Marino, Montana, and Steve Largent to go with Joe Ferguson, Jack Kemp, Andre Reed and other Bills. The GOAT is the Goat. Having players you respect doesn’t diminish your affection for the Bills.
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1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:
Beane did go down that route last year with Harty, Sherfield with terrible results. As others have stated here, once the Tre money comes in, it will be possible to sign DK while giving up a pick or two next year. My guess is that with so many WRs coming into the league this year, he won't command a Rd1 pick.
I am holding out hope that he chooses a vet WR like DK who can make a big difference and set a firm floor for the WR room while raising the ceiling. We all hope that Coleman is good in his rookie season but that's hope and not a strategy.
Actually that’s not what Beane did with Harty and Sherfield. Beane gave Sherfield a one year guaranteed contract at 1.77 and Harty a 2 yr 9 mill deal with 5 guaranteed. Both were given little to no competition to make the roster and both failed miserably. They were ill used by the OCs and performed lousy when called upon. Did you know Harty was the 13th highest paid Bill last year?
This year the only FA WR guaranteed a roster spot is Samuel who has been a productive NFL player. Claypool, Hamler, Isabella, Cephus and even Hollins are guaranteed nothing. Hollins deal is for 2.6, but his dead cap is a manageable 1.1.
As to Metcalf, Buffalo isn’t acquiring him. His base salary is 13 mill. Even with Tre’s money, Buffalo can’t afford him. I also doubt Beane would have an interest. Beane has stated time and again that this is a transition year. This year is about retooling while getting our financial house in order. Add Metclaf for 31 mill over the next two years just doesn’t fit with Beane’s stated plan.
PS: I like Metcalf and think he’d do well with Josh. We simply can’t afford him.
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On 5/2/2024 at 3:12 PM, GASabresIUFan said:
LB - (6) Milano, Bernard, Williams, Ulofoshio, Morrow, & Spector EDIT: Cut Jones?
On 5/2/2024 at 3:12 PM, GASabresIUFan said:LB - The top 3 are written in stone, but I can see 6 LBs on the 53 man roster as they invest in Morrow (750k dead cap), drafted Ulofoshio and Spector looked solid in limited reps. I think they keep all 6 as someone will certainly steal Spector if cut and sent to the PS. Apparently we are adding a 7th LB to the mix in former pro-bowler Deion Jones.
I thought LB would be Beane most stable position depth chart this off-season. the 4 returnees all played well last season and IMHO looked to need not much help. Instead Beane added Morrow, then drafted Ulofoshio and then added even more depth in Deion Jones. Now we have 7 LBs who one can make an argument could (should?) make the team. If memory serves we only carried 5 last season. Why so many?
I think there are 2 possible explanations besides simple camp depth. First, is Milano not recovering as well as they hoped. If this is the case, the signings of Morrow and Jones make sense. Second, is McD contemplating using more of a traditional 4-3 this season? If this is the case, carrying 6 LBs next season again makes sense. If Jones has a good camp, Spector won't last too long on the PS.
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