BigBillsFan
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Posts posted by BigBillsFan
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Just now, oldmanfan said:
Accuracy is not completion percentage. That theory has been debunked over and over again.
Changing the goalposts? Hardly. I have been as consistent as you can be around ehre that statisitics are used very poorly in these conversations because people by and large do not understand statistics.
Statistics is a science. There is no such thing as "football" statistics vs. statistics in general. That is foolish and why people get misled into thinking some numbers matter in football. But you have actually said in this thread that #'s are generally true because they generally are. You said that. And not to be harsh, but that statement really means you should exclude yourself from discussions involving any form of statistics. It shows you really don't get it.
Did I celebrate Allen's performance after Dallas? Sure, because I thought he played pretty good and we won the game. Did I celebrate after the playoff loss? No, and there were things Allen did wrong in that game that he needs to improve upon.
I think if one looks objectively at Allen his performance in year 2 was better than year one. His numbers trended up for most passing stats (note I said trending; doesn't mean is was statistically valid but I would rather see a positive vs. negative data trend). He still needs work on recognition especially pre-snap so he can get set quicker and get the ball out quicker. needs to read the blitz quicker. In general he needs what most young QBs need; to get the game to slow down more. He could benefit from some more talent around him, sure, but every QB can say that. He could also benefit from a more consistent offensive philosophy, but again that's consistent with many other QBs. What I do know is that his neuroplasticity is certainly not stopped at this point in his career, and that there is no reason why he can't continue improvement. Whether he does so or not is on him. we'll see starting in July.
Here's where you're wrong:
So far you've said I stated you need to have 62% accuracy to be successful --> never said that
That I said Allen "cannot" (that's your words) learn --> never said that
At this point "Doctor" you should have walked away. If you can't analyze what someone said how you can you make any meaningful statements?
Of course you don't puff your chest out with the "I'm a PHD" script when the stats and facts are against you. You said he's trending but guess what? Not according to statistical data. Even the positive trend is statistically meaningless from YOUR position.
Oh wait... you want it to have meaning so MAGICALLY stats are used. You use football stats when they benefit you, but fly to your credentials and chest-beating statistics when they don't. Got it.
But it's ok dismiss completion %, QB rating, YPG, etc.. It's worked out well for a lot of teams.
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My biggest takeaway was we should have won... many many many times.
2nd biggest takeaway is let's run the dang ball or attempt it like we did in the 1st series. I think we have most of the guys we need to run the ball and I really think Singletary might be our best RB in a long time.
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3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
"Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college"
The above is a direct quote from you from page 109 of this thread. So there you go on the 62% thing.
Hold on because that wasn't your argument and not what I said in context.
Here's what you said that I was arguing: "that 62% is the number that needs to be shown for success in the NFL" <-- I never said that
I never said you needed to be 62% to be successful. That's 2 different arguments. I said to be considered an accurate passer. Luke Falk was one of the accurate QBs in college, I never said he would successful. I've never said accuracy equals success. I did say it's one of the best indicators of it, along with YPA and TD/Int ratios.
QuoteYour answer confirms what I suspected; you don't know how statistics work. 58.6% is not different than 60% statistically, when looking at Allen's work this past season, because the sample size is not nearly enough to say that. And that matters. Just looking at a number and believing it means something is a trap way too many people fall into. So let's move to the following. If Allen improved from 58.6% to 72%, would I accept that? Well, let's do the analysis. A quick power analysis says that such a difference would have meaning based on a sample size of about 250, or 16 throws a game. I suspect he would meet that. So yes, that would be a meaningful improvement.
You also confirm that you don't know how statistical analysis works in football.
You change the goalposts so quickly it's impossible to make an argument with you.
I'll tell you what, when everyone was celebrating Allen after the Cowboys game did you once point out their lack of statistical meaningfulness?
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17 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:
The power analysis tells you how many samples you need to understand if there is a true difference. 58.6 is very close to 60% therefore you need many more samples to know that the two things are different. 72% is >> than 60% and you need fewer samples to tell a difference (also completion % is not a good measure of accuracy imo).
I think the best way to think of this (and honestly Allen in generally) is Top 4 (Elite), Second Best 4 (Good), Bottom 4 (Terrible), Second worst 4 (Bad), and everyone else (Average). If Allen is 26th then hes in the second worst 4 and is not making the grade. If he is 23 he really is just average cause you dont have the power to tell the difference between him and number 9. These are guidelines but I think they have really helped me thinking about if something is a concern or if something else is as good as it seems.
This guideline has gotten me to Allen is an average QB for the most part (some good and some bad) and I consider that a big improvement from last year which had much more bad.
My point is you can't use a scientific statistical analysis for NFL QBs. Apply N1 to completions per game, TDs, INTs and you just can't.
Let's use "Rating" as a fairly accurate measure of a QB. The 9th best QB is Derek Carr and the 23rd is Fitzy. I don't think they are comparable. 11th is Watson and 20th is Jones. Again not comparable. Even 13th is Wentz and again Jones isn't close this year.
I don't see how you can relate 23rd to 9th at all.
Power as you describe means a large statistical analysis and creating averages. This cannot be done with NFL QBs.
The NFL as I see it has about 3-5 elite QBs (although I'd argue we might be down to 1 soon), about 5-7 franchise guys, and the rest is a carousel of guys who could be backups or borderline starters. Their replacement value is close to equal. Case Keenum could be replaced with Fitz could be replaced with Trubisky, etc. without much change in the season. An elite QB adds 4-7 wins to their team above replacement and a franchise is 2-5 wins above replacement. Now that's me guessing, I have no stats, but that's my own guess based on Rivers and Brees having great years on horrible teams and guys like Matt Cassell being 11-5 on the Patriots or even Stafford this year on the Lions who was playing lights out.
A team is a bigger component than just the QB.
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49 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Neuroplasticity refers to changes in synaptic connections that occur in the brain in response to altered environments, such as occurs with brain injury, or learning, or such. New synaptic connections are formed, and other lost, as the brain responds. You are implying that Allen cannot develop much because at his age he has behaviors locked in that cannot be easily changed....
...You threw out that Allen is a worse passer that a guy with a 60% completion rate because 58.6% is less that 60%. Not true. Are your familiar with the concept of the power of an analysis? Power refers to how many observations that are needed to validate statistical differences between samples. With the number of passes Allen threw last year, there is no statistical difference between 58.6% and 60%. He would have to throw thousands of passes for the difference to have validity. You also just threw out that, for college passers coming out of college, that 62% is the number that needs to be shown for success in the NFL, with absolutely no justification for doing so.
...And the reason why is generally one of two: inappropriate statistical analysis, or poor study design that more tries to meet an author's per-formed conclusion vs. a true analysis of data. You seeem guilty of both.
If you'd like to share your background so we can accurately assess your knowledge base on things like stats and neuroplasticity, I and I am sure others would welcome that.
2 things on a corollary can both be true. A shirt can be both blue and yellow but never blue and not blue. I've never said Allen "cannot" develop much, but it's very hard on a professional level to eradicate past mechanical issues without time and practice. Allen can improve, it's just much harder with ingrained habits. I hope he does.
If you can point me to a time when I said "cannot" I'll concede your point. You're making several points I never made.
I mean this alone is illogical: "because 58.6% is less that 60%. Not true." Of course it's true.
You said it takes thousands (2,000 min then?) to know if that's true. That's 4 seasons. No one throws 4 seasons of footballs in 1 season for analysis. You tried before with your N1 statement which I showed doesn't apply to 1 game in sports, and your arguments of precision which barely apply to a QB.
Let me make it more concrete. If Allen threw for 72% this year and anyone said "we don't know if he's accurate he's hasn't thrown the ball 2,000 times" are you going to tell me you're going to call that person out for lack of statistical sampling or say "Dang right he is!" and if I joined in on the celebration of accuracy would you be as objective in your analysis and call me out with your credentials? I'm curious if your position is one sided.
Using that same logic no one could ever be accurate in a single season if one needs "thousands" of data to make the analysis. Football is not a laboratory and #s are generally true because they generally are.
I've never said passers out of college 62% is the number needed for success. Show me where.
Lastly, my background is irrelevant to the discussion. Facts, logic, and reasonable arguments is what we argue. To give you some indication of what my background is the argumentum ab auctoritate is fallacious and spurious. I have to say if you post your credentials demanding obedience you might as well use my actual arguments as well.
I'm not saying Allen can't learn or adapt, I said it takes time. That's why we need a great running game like Big Ben did and McNair had with Eddie George. What I'm saying is bad habits are harder to fix we should do more to give him more chances to succeed by giving him a great running game and better targets and let him grow.
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3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
And yes, the bigger issues are that the offense hasn’t made it easy on Allen. Look no further than Lamar: he had a league-high 173 called RPOs, and the 3rd most pass attempts out of PA. Allen was 11th and 19th, respectively. Guys like Murray, Watson, Wilson, Mahomes, and evening Wentz had similar high percentages of plays that are designed to give them time and matchup advantages. Why isn’t Allen being given the same opportunity?
If you've ever read what I've wrote (not that I'm a worthy read), I've 100% put blame on the coaches/GM for Allen, not Allen. You don't put a raw QB without a good TE who is established and a good run game. It's poorly thought out. I've said he's more like a Big Ben/McNair who needs time to grow.
I agree with almost everything you said. I'm not an Allen basher, I'm a Daboll/Beane and McDermott critic for how they run the offense. How do you put a rookie who is not ready next to Peterman? Where is your identity?
Guys like Murray and Jackson have been given clear mandates. Allen is floundering not because he can't succeed but because he's not in the position with personnel, schemes, and GM preparing for him. It's like taking your highest pick for a QB ever and hoping he turns out great somehow someway. It's not fair to Allen.
Look at the playoff game for example: we had a clear identity for 1 offensive series, and it was awesome. The whole rest of the game the play calling was ridiculous.
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5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
What does “ranked 26th” mean? In what metric?
Also, you’re using old numbers for the rating vs blitz. Not sure where Allen ended up, but it sure wasn’t in the bottom 5:
Have you considered why Buffalo wasn’t good against the blitz? Could it have anything to do with the fact that our best WR in terms of creating separation (Beasley) needs 3+ seconds in a pattern to separate?
I really wish there was a NextGen stat that showed “Time to Separate”. I can almost promise that Buffalo’s WR group would rank low. Very low.
That said, it remains the QB’s job to beat the blitz. Yes, an OC can do a lot to help them out—run RPOs and zone reads to significantly slow pursuit like Roman does with Jackson, run a TON of PA like SF and LAR—but eventually the DC can send more people than the offense can block. At that point the QB needs to make a play. It’s one of the reasons that Brady was always so good—he could beat the blitz.
But this year, Brady was a bottom-5 QB against the blitz; what happened? Two things: he’s getting older, and his WRs aren’t as good anymore. Teams figured out that if you take away Edelman and White early in the route, they don’t have a player that can win one-on-one matchups like Gronk and Amendola used to.
It’s nice to know things about training athletes, but it’s equally important to know the game.
Our stat differential was 2 weeks. Factor in the Ravens game he was in the bottom tier.
Why were we so bad on the blitz? OC calls and time of the hand of Allen. Allen ranked 1st for holding the ball longest.
There are countless All-22s that show Allen had time to throw on plays with an open player but couldn’t find his receiver. There are also some All-22s that show he had no time to throw. The “no-time” to throw happens to every QB: throwing it away, etc..
Last I don’t think our WRs ranked last on time of separation. I think Allen likes more time to process the field and try to create longer throws.
Also Brady’s blitz metrics went down not because of Pedelman or White and the lack of Gronk, but he clearly regressed mentally and physically. When he was young his receivers weren’t great and he did just fine against the blitz.
I find comical that people can insult me and if I use their same language I’m talking down to them. Like you saying I don’t know the game. When did I accuse anyone of not knowing the game? Your hypocrisy is a bit silly. I used the argument of neuroplasticity not to talk down to people but to point out an element in learning. Did I ever say “if you hillbillies knew about X then talk to me?” Who am I except for another fan, I don't think anyone is more worthy of their own views or opinions. Share yours, I'd love to hear them, I've learned a lot here and other places. I'm just a dad and fan of the Bills. I'm a nobody.
Maybe use arguments and you’ll find I’m very polite. If I cite stats and proof I like friendly debate. I’m not threatened by discussion, even disagreement.
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Little Donte
Maybin
Mike Williams
McGahee
Letting Winfield walk
Rex Ryan
Brandon as GM
Marv as GM
2 1sts for Sammy
Overpaying for Star
Extended GMs Donahoe and Whaley
Rob Johnson
Not stopping Kelly in the SB and letting Thurman run
Not extending Jason Peters
Spiller
Extending Fitz
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On 2/8/2020 at 2:40 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Good, point of agreement
Even incorrect motions serving a tennis or volleyball in a controlled environment can be hard to break if they're firmly encoded in "muscle memory"
I think the point a bunch of people have made is to the "done something for years" bit. Hopefully we can find a second point of agreement in that it's not the "years" that are the thing so much as the number of repetitions with an incorrect motion. Example: If I go skiing twice a year with bad technique, my technique is likely not as engrained after 10 years as someone who skiis every weekend in winter for 3 years (it may be harder for me to change for another reason)
Athletic technique also naturally has to adjust as one's body grows.
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Either he will or he won't, where Josh Allen is concerned I don't think it's any good making assumptions.
First of all I agree with everything you wrote. I think Allen will improve. I used the extreme example of newbs learning football to show it's not coaching that's 100% the solution, but the person as well.
I once helped coach a kid to have Division I technique in 6 months in tennis, he had borderline pro technique instantly. Great athlete, fast learning, incredible hand-eye coordination, etc.. Once it was a match with pressure he couldn't be consistent to save his life. He was overthinking everything. I'm sure he made a great college player by his 3rd year, but that's as far as it could go. Pressure destroys coaching all the time without the pressure cooker of time to solidify it. There has to be time applied to the learning where it feel natural.
Every sport requires massive nuance that just can't be coached, it must be done over and over again. It's called the "feel" for the game. I know you know this, but people think if the player gets X coaching they get a Y solution. It's freaking hard to play sports at the highest level.
I 100% believe Josh will be better next year. That same confidence does not mean he'll be a $35 million QB or a starter in the NFL. I hope he does. But the mere belief I think he may not makes people go insane. To say he's inaccurate right now does not mean he can't improve.
Is that so unreasonable as to say he may not pan out in this system/staff? That he needs a strong run game and patience to see if he's capable? That other players may in fact be better than he is currently? That he didn't "lead" the team to 10-6 but he was basically along for the ride of a great defense? That a 4th quarter comeback against the Bengals isn't really an accomplishment and more of an indictment we had no offense the whole game?
All of those questions are objectively true or could reasonably be argued.
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Sometimes being too successful as a QB is worse than struggling for big ego players like Baker. Baker had a 7 game stretch as the best QB in the league for completions % and his YPA was close to 9 for those 7 games.
The question is can he recover and if not I think his career will spiral out of control. He reminds me of Andy Ruiz after beating Joshua: he got fat and stupid.
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9 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:
Agreed. I was using this thread to point out the progress he is making. I don’t know if Josh can be MVP next year. I would settle for similar percentage improvements in the areas of ; completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, yards, and fumbles. I believe if Josh accomplishes those things the Bills will be back in the playoffs and competing for the AFC. That is honestly what is important for me, and I bet Josh.
Completely agree. I think if he can get to the 15-18th best QB passing with his running ability and an improved running game we can make the playoffs. Our schedule is brutal.
I'd love to see how he does with a bigger target. Duke is a great 5th WR, but not a true #1. I really want him to have that outlet under pressure to make those 50/50 balls to a WR.
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6 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:
Mahomes would have played well wherever he was drafted, as would all ELITE!!!! QB's. To imply otherwise suggests you're not particularly adept at understanding what you're watching. This take discounts a great deal of your Allen critique because it's so far off base.
He's in a great system with great talent, but only the BEST of the BEST put up a 50 pass TD season. Alex Smith was a decent QB and he put up 25 with the very same supporting cast.
The guy is a stud. Plain and simple.
And yet you've set Drew Brees as the benchmark. Sean Payton is a pretty good offensive coach, eh?
Mahomes would not have flourished under many HCs in the NFL. Being elite isn't the same as having a great coach to hide your weaknesses and push your strengths.
If you think he if was drafted under Marvin Lewis's Bengals, or Hue Jackson's Browns he'd throw 50 TDs you wouldn't understand football.
KC thought they could grab Cassell of the Pats* and make him awesome. How did that turn out?
Brees is not my benchmark for anything related to this team. I may have used him as an analogy and others have. Brees is a different animal than Allen. Allen has a higher upside but a much lower floor.
Systems, GMs, and coaching make QBs more than QBs are great by themselves. It's exceptionally rare a QB is so great that he excels the disaster of their team. If you think Teddy Bridgewater would lead many teams to 5-0 this year let me know which teams that would be.
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8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
You're delusional.
The Bills got the 1st pick of the 3rd round for Tyrod and Allen would be coveted more than Taylor.
You have a very jaded perspective on Allen.
Says the guy who predicted he would be the MVP in 2019 when he was ranked 26th out of all QBs.
Which is closer to delusion: someone who points out he's 26th or the guy who thinks he's 1st out of 32? And the winner is...
Next you told @Mango he was going to be drafted in the top 10. Says who? He was already at #7 and guys slip all of the time. The only guarantee in the draft is that there aren't any guarantees.
Your argument, even if valid, is like listing a house 3 bed 2 bath house in rural Buffalo for $5 million dollars and then when someone comes to see it you tell them "Well it was $5 million, we've really dropped the price".
Big arm QBs without accuracy have been the disaster of the NFL drafts for decades. It's like a who's who of busts.
Last, you showed me some of his best throws under pressure. Sure, they exist, but that's not what neuroplasticity is. It's the reason why Allen is blitzed so frequently by teams like the Ravens and Pats*. He's the 30th worst QB under blitz pressure:
https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/11/2/20943679/who-should-you-not-blitz
He's 30th against the blitz. 30th. Stats aren't anecdotal videos. Stats show what happens under normative circumstances. He completed 7 of 24 against the blitz against the Ravens.-
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27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Drew Brees completion percentage the second season he started was 57.6%, OK, so how about you get off your "better completion percentage than Josh ever had as a starter" high hoss. Do you really think it's a big deal out of 60.8 (Brees 1st season starting, 2nd season in league) being so much better than 58.8% 2nd season in league?Because it’s accurate. 60% is higher than Josh’s 1st 2 seasons. I never said it was "so much better" but it was "better". If you read what I wrote I never used hyperbole like "so much better".
27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:This is getting a bit much.
Yes because it's assumed that House did the change = Brees becoming better. That's not established. Improvement? Sure, but all improvements were from coaching? Yes, it's getting a bit too much if you think so.
17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
Moreover, if Brees truly did have “amazing mechanics” coming out of Purdue, then why was he a career 61% passer in college?Because the baseline for accuracy in those days was 60%. If you were over 60% you were accurate in the pros. Today that's creeped up to 62-65% coming out of college.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2001/passing.htm
When Brees was drafted only 2 players over 4k yards, and at 62% completions which is now the norm for over 2/3rds of QBs today only 6 in the league could pull it off.
61% was great in college when he was drafted.
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24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
Brees didn’t have a mechanical issue?Tell that to Tom House.
Yes Tom House had to completely remake Brees footwork, throwing habits, and shoulder angles. This is crazy.
This is getting funnier by the moment. Incremental improvements are not full scale mechanics right? I mean you do understand Brees had amazing mechanics coming out of college right? This is just crazy.
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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
No he wouldn't.
Why is it? If I am Dak Prescott I am not settling for being between Jimmy G and Kirk Cousins. That is what Jacoby Brissett signed for. I am Dak there is no way you can tell me I am equal to Jacoby freaking Brissett. I am seeking to be in the Goff and Wentz range.
You do know Jacoby Brissett makes $15 mil a year year right? $33 does not equal $15 mil.
Jimmy G is paid $27 mil/yr
Cousins is paid $28 mil a year.
QBs get paid based on projection of what other QBs will be paid in the future. Dak is still way too unproven with Cooper at WR as the only way he could even have any success.
I'd pay him $25 or let him walk.
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8 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:
When did Brees’s great leap happen? In his first 3 years? Yeah I didn’t think so.... and Burrows has not proven how good he will be at reading an NFL defense that has game planned for him. We don’t even have a chance for him and he’s going to Cincinnati, who knows what will happen to him there...
Sure if you want to compare a 2nd rounder who had a better completion rate than Josh ever had in his 1st year as starter.
Brees didn’t have mechanical issues but couldn’t catch up to the speed of the game, Josh has both issues.
How many QBs with massive mechanical issues turn out to be Pro-Bowlers as raw QBs? Name them... didn't think so.
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5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Well....I can't speak for chess masters, but the latest and greatest on neurological development now seems to have reached a consensus that the human brain isn't fully developed until the mid 20s, with developmental changes especially pronounced in the prefrontal cortex (governs judgement and decision making - AHEM Josh Lateral?).
Here's a popular piece I found on a quick search that seems like a reasonable discussion of this.
Bottom line, I believe current neuroscience on human brain development would overall disagree. But an additional factor is the individual. Josh literally was still physically developing during college. One article said he didn't have to shave until his Wyoming Sr year and his coaches and teammates gave him crap about it. Does that mean his brain is still in the same stage of neuroelasticity as an 19 yr old who hit his growth spurt at age 16-17? I don't think enough is known about this, but if the growth plates in the bones are still open I wouldn't bet against development in an organ, the brain, that's said to be still developing 6-10 yrs after the bone growth plates close.
Neuroelasticity or neuroplasticity does show the brain doesn't fully form until you're about 25 yrs old.
The problem is hard-coding. Habits are harder to break when we get just a little older and done something for years. Leftwich couldn’t shake his motion, Tebow couldn’t change his when he got rushed. They were young, old habits came back under pressure. It's not like serving a tennis ball in a static environment, or pitching when you are running and men chasing you.
Most people who claim they can change mechanics so easily don’t realize it’s not just mechanics its pressure that causes reversions.
You could teach a bunch of 22 yr olds to play QB: mechanics, reading the field, etc.. If all they did was study some of the more erudite types could master plays with mechanics in probably under a year. Full mastery? No, but they would know all of their assignments and mechanics.
Then push them on a football field and all of that learning would borderline disappear. They wouldn’t need a year, they would need YEARS to take what they’ve learned and apply it in real time, and most would fail, and this is true of young men who were groomed for years from their youth.
It’s the difference between mechanical and natural. it’s the reason why you could teach me to play tennis like Federer but I couldn’t hit it like him, or teach me to hit a baseball like Mike Trout but I couldn’t hit like him in real time, and why the hardest position in the world in sports takes years to be a natural.
I have 100% knowledge knows the mechanics, that he knows the plays (all reports say he’s intelligent and hard working), but it’s doing it under pressure.
It’s why we celebrate when he throws a screen or swing pass accurately, because we realize he’s not that complete as a player. It’s not rawness alone, it’s bad habits that break down under pressure.
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1 hour ago, Billl said:
Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks. What do you think he would receive in return?
Currently a 3rd. That's my guess.
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NFL knows news is forgotten about quickly.
The whole dang thing is a joke. Bellycheat should be thrown out of the league and Krafty Bob forced to sell and strip their SBs.
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On 2/4/2020 at 8:18 PM, Gary M said:
10 paragraphs with historical data, then this !!!!
However, other experts disagree with Prof Zharkova’s theory, stating any cooling effect will be “vastly offset” by climate change.
Solar scientist Mathew Owens said: “Thus there will probably be no detectable effect on global climate.”
Of course when there is money to be made, and they've made billions, why stop the charade now?
Ice Age 70's
Global Warming 90's
Climate Change 2000's
Mini-Ice Age 2020
All Lies All The Time
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28 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:
I'm an Ohio State fan and Burrow only played in mop up time in 2016. Those stats are irrelevant. The bottom line is that he couldn't win the OSU job, was average his first year at LSU and then blossomed into one of the best QB prospects to come out of college in the last 20 years. And he did this AFTER the age of 21....
The real question is which of these 2 QB's do you think is more likely to be a top 5 NFL QB 5 years from now? My answer would be Allen because he's already PROVEN he can play at an NFL level. Burrow still has to prove this. And for the record I think Burrow is a fantastic QB prospect and will thrive in the NFL.
Bottom line is your pessimism about Allen is unwarranted. Your declaration that Allen can't get better is flat out wrong and has been disproved by Allen's performance to date.
This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst.
Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule.
Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.
Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing.
So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow.
To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.
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The Rams built a team off superstars, kind of how most people dream their team on Madden but a horrible idea for winning. Gurley, Goff, Donald and soon to be Ramsey.
They are going to suck for years.
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Hey I have a great idea, make him the OC here.
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Has anyone bothered to take a second look at the WCPG against Houston?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Exclude the Brown throw, why not try some of those runs again?