BigBillsFan
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Posts posted by BigBillsFan
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9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula. So you're proving my point.
Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season. Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever.
Allen needs to continue to improve. I have said that repeatedly. But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity.
Drops can also be subjective. There is no objective criteria of what a drop is, it's done by someone guessing.
The 4 pass thing that lacks statistical significance is also inaccurate. You can raise that to 9 completions for the season to get to 60% too. You started at 59.6% and you could also go to 60.4%.
The point is he missed those throws. If they are easy to make then make them. Everyone can say "if they just X it would mean Y". Its the entire argument of Scooby Doo "If it wasn't for you meddling kids..."
You either do it or you don't.
The same can be said for drops. For every drop you have a circus catch. Duke dropped a super easy one in the playoffs but he had an amazing catch as well. Knox was a dropaholic but he also had 2 catches that were circus like. You don't factor in circus catches as "possible incompletions".
I also agree QBR is horrible, it factors in running more than passing, that's why Josh's QBR is lower this year. It's a stat for running QBs.
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If Allen can audible he either can't read the defense or there isn't a scheme to beat it.
How do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots? Either smash-mouth with dynamic run plays or developing hot reads to the blitz.
The problem is either Daboll's schemes don't have an answer, Allen doesn't like doing audibles, or Allen can't mentally figure out when to call the right play.
Even the smurf WRs are fine. Most of Manning's WRs through the years were 6' or shorter. As noted many times on the All-22 WRs were open but he wasn't going for the underneath stuff if he waited a bit, he wanted to throw it deeper.
I still say we need a better TE and 1 bigger WR.
Yes, a lot of plays fall on a QB. I don't think with modern offenses they can't or don't coach how to get out of situations after studying 1,000's of hours of tape. The adjustment comes from the QB.
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I would give 2 1st rounders and the highest contract in history if we could guarantee he wouldn't have a heart attack over the next 10 years I would want him so bad as a coach
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We should be careful to call each other liars. A liar is when someone willfully and knowingly tells something they know to be false.
I should know, my wife calls me a liar all the time.
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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
I don't think this is true.
It makes things way too subjective.
Every QB's air yards are calculated based off how far from the LOS the ball flies.
I was agreeing with you, I think I worded it imprecisely. Sorry
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BTW the difference between jrober's stats and everyone else is because jrober is counting actual yards from the LOS, not from where threw it to a reception. In air yards isn't yards given to a QB, or rephrase it a QB who went back 40 yards thew it 10 yards past the LOS isn't a 50 yard pass.
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The reason why I don't like the dismissal of completion percentage is it's one of the most essential metrics to use to measure QB success. (As well as YPA and TD/INT ratio)
The reason is simple: for every "drop" there are circus catches caught. They basically negate each other. Receivers with their modern gloves can perform miracles with these gloves.
I agree with Hapless that a big consideration to completion % is scheme. Mahomes will never have Brees completion % but his YPA cover this problem. I've seen Mahomes play games where he's 4/9 with 2 TDs throwing bombs and a YPA of 14.
My other reason for liking this stat is confidence. By the 2nd quarter if you're 3/11 your confidence is shaken. Confidence is the hidden metric which makes marginal athletes into beasts. Physically speaking the 15th best WR and the 40th best WR isn't skill if they are about the same height and weight, it's their mental preparation and confidence.
Take a guy like Allen who is still learning a lot on how to be a pro and I want him throwing dump-offs, slants, swings, and giving him confidence to know if he misses it's not a big deal.
Conversely if we took this year to let Josh pass shorter passes does anyone think the magic number 17 points couldn't have also be achieved and a stat sheet of 17/24 and 190 yards wouldn't have done the same thing or better with a decent run game?
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What in the world. I didn't know a dog could jump like that
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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:
John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.
His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.
Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.
His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.
If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?
It's the QB, obviously.
It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.
We need to upgrade our offensive weapons. Allen needs to work on his game.
Both are true.
Oh absolutely I 100% agree with you. To dismiss WR talent is silly.
I just don't like the argument (which you didn't make) that Allen needs insane tools to make the game work. That's true of any QB that if they had world-class weapons it would benefit them.I'm still of the opinion we need to draft a RT in the 1st 2 rounds, a real RT, or pay for one in FA and get a decent RB in the 2-4th rounds and get a dang coach who isn't afraid to run the ball even when they know you're going to run it because you have the scheme, and personnel to take pressure off of Allen and let him grow.
I hate the view a QB has to be Manning, or Elway. I think there is more value in having a less heroic QB and a better team. I can't stand we're asking a raw QB to pass 60-70% of the game and running the ball when it makes no sense and developing plays that take 3-4 seconds instead of teaching Allen to take shorter routes and let the game come to him.
The Philly game was an abomination, the playoffs were more of the same. I don't like clever ideas, I like intelligent. You don't have to out-smart someone, you just need to out-execute them.
If Allen just did dump offs, slants, screens and roll-outs with the occasional bomb I'd be HAPPY with that if we had an identity on offense with this defense. Want to improve accuracy? Make the targets bigger (closer) and then use his athleticism to keep teams honest. Reduce the amount of blitzes and let his mind adjust.
I want to see him succeed. I think he can, but he won't be like Montana, he'll be a better version of McNair if he blossoms and I'm more than happy with that and a strong identity on offense.
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8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:
No doubt. Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the most precise passers ever. But he wasn't always that way. In fact, there his a clear delineation between is days with the Chargers (his first 5 years in the league) and what he has been able to do with Sean Payton in New Orleans since then.
If we want to talk apples to apples, Brees completed less than 58% of his passes in 2 of his first 3 years in the league. His combined TD-INT ratio after those three seasons was 29-31. The Chargers thought so much of him after those first 3 years, that they pulled the trigger to acquire Phil Rivers in the 2004 draft. I remember seeing him first-hand back in 2002 against the Bledsoe Bills in Orchard Park; Brees absolutely could NOT physically throw the ball in those winds -- and Flutie came in off the bench to play for him.
If nothing else, I guess the Brees saga proves that Accuracy CAN improve over time (Brees has been no worse than 63% -- and usually near 70% -- every year since going to New Orleans).
I agree with you.
I just want to point out his 1st season he only played 1 game.
Year 2 was his 1st season at 61%
Year 3 2nd season regression at 58%
Year 4 3rd season he was 65.5%
The average completion % was 58% for starters and only 4 guys over 4k yards in 2002 and only 2 in 2003 and 5 in 2004.
QB stat creep is not comparable to today.
Brees didn't only become more accurate which is true, but he had stat creep with the modern rules. He did become more accurate consistently, but stat creep is real.
11 players over 4k yards in 2019 vs just 2-4 usually, average completion now is 62% for 26 players who started minimum of 8 games. That's 26 players with 62% or higher.
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Sadly I do marketing so I know this schtick well:
1. Show someone's story in a sad light, emotional light
2. Show their decision following said fallenness
3. Turn a low-life idiot into a victim
Almost all tragedies run on this path. Most every movie, show, marketing piece around a story has about 6 paths that are roughly about the same. It's the director's vision to make it more emotional/tragic to feel more for the character. I mean Joker was made to make you feel for Arthur, who is obviously a wicked person.
Take Spiderman 2, it was hailed because of it's story, not for it's acting or because it was a superhero movie. Why? Because Parker (Maguire) was treated so poorly, wanted nothing in life except to help people, then he realizes he feels empty, tries to be like other people only to realize he must continue to sacrifice, be hated, and still not succeed. It's only when he gives up everything does he save the woman he loves and she loves him.
Beware of marketers selling stories. Hernandez was a wicked man.
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24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Okay, Elite WRs like Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones make Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan look better, so can you also acknowledge the only logical counter that a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins or other Elite WRs that drop more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag make a QB look worse?
I did some digging: Watson is 69% passing and 72% to Hopkins.
Previous QBs on the Texans were 59% to Hopkins
The 13% was the QB, not the WR.
3% differentials to WRs won't change a QB's numbers that much, it's the QB
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41 minutes ago, pop gun said:
Who was Manning throwing to? Huge difference between Allens weapons and Mannings.
Manning also had some guy named Bruce Ariens as QB coach.
Marvin Harrison 115 rec on 184 targets
Edgerrin James 62 rec on 82 targets, oh and he rushed for 1553 yards
2 decent veteren TE Dilger/Pollard 74 rec on 92 targets
Manning also had 72 more pass attempts than Allen. You can add about 500 more pass yards to Allens total if you extrapolate everything out.
If you do add all the numbers up for Manning and add the 500 more passing yards to Allen their total numbers look quite similar despite the HUGE difference surrounding them in talent.
Manning 4135 pass yards 73 rush yards 28 total TDs 15 int GWD 7
Allen 3600 pass yards 510 rush yards 29 total TDs 9 int GWD 5
Keep poopooing Allen and he will keep you haters looking like the fools you are!
My point wasn't "poopooing" Allen, but to point out he's not Manning, nor should he be coached to be Manning, but more of a modern McNair/Big Ben.
Your numbers are bogus he didn't throw for 3600 yards, that's you adding 500 yards. If Allen threw more completions he would have thrown more, that's how that works. He was a 3 and out machine for the 1st 3 quarters of a lot of games.
Comparing Manning to Allen is ridiculous. One is a Lambo (manning) and one is a monster truck (Allen). Both can win in the league with the right scheme. If you think the Arians offense of Indy could ever be done by Allen you’re wrong, he’s not capable right now, and he may not be capable period.
The best way for the Bills to win with Allen is to treat him like McNair or Big Ben and develop a great running game and let the team do the winning. The 4th quarter comebacks against the mighty Bengals (21 points), Titans (14 points) and Jets (17 points) don’t impress me. It just meant our offense sucked all game.
My point has been and will be not that Allen sucks but we need to stop thinking of him like Marino, Elway, Manning and Mahomes and think of him like a young Big Ben/McNair and have an identity that matches theirs.
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4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:
Manning's a statue in the pocket though so it's fairer to compare their combined passing and rushing stats.
Allen had over 300 yards combined rushing and passing 5 times in 26 games. Manning did it 7 times in 33 games.
Allen had two 4/5 TD games. Manning had zero.
Allen had over 3500 combined yards in his first full season starting. Manning did the same in his first two full seasons starting.
300 yards combined as a stat has never been a determination for a QBs long-term stability. RGIII, Kaepernick, et al, were all "figured out". Rodgers when he was younger did great rushing because he could legitimately throw, the same with Steve Young.
Manning thew for over 4,100 yards in his 2nd year, the team was 13-3. He was a bona fide superstar/known commodity. Throwing for 4,100 yards in 1999 is like throwing for 4800-4900 yards now.
They aren't comparable. It's like comparing oranges and tanks.
The closest athlete I would compare Allen to is Steve McNair. Allen had a bigger arm, McNair was more accurate coming out of college. Both struggled with accuracy in the pros, both ran well. The difference was the Titans identity was mostly a rushing based attack. We don't have any identity on offense. I don't blame Allen for that. He's being coached wrong.
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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Permit me to assist you to address his entire post:
Sure and let's stay with the theme of the 2018 Rams since that's the team.
Game 1
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809100rai.htm
33 passes to 25 rushes. They are up 20 to 13 end of the 3rd and 4th 33 to 13.
At one point in the game Goff passes 29 times and Gurley 16 until they are winning and rushing to wind down the clock.Game 2
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809160ram.htm#all_pbp
32 passes 31 rushes. The last 15 plays 9 were to Brown and 6 were passes. Why? They were winning a lot by then. When Gurley leaves the game it’s 28 passes to 19 rushes.I could go game after game, it’s the same thing. It’s 60-65% passing and 35-40% rushing.
KC does this, NE did this when Brady’s arm wasn’t shot, Manning did this, Pitt now does this with Big Ben.
The top teams over the last decade are 60-65% passing and they rush a lot at the end because they are usually up big. I watch enough football to know this is true.
Look at this boxscore when the games are close and it’s more apparent:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809160pit.htmMahomes 28 passes and 20 rushes. Ben threw it 60 times and 13 rushes.
The difference is 1. The best QBs are retiring, getting old and 2. The defenses are all geared for the pass. You have success with the Ravens and 49ers model for 2 seasons the defenses will switch to run stuffers, but a great passer will always have an advantage no matter what in the league.
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7 hours ago, thebandit27 said:
Oh really? Cherry picking huh?The best 2 teams in the NFL this season were Baltimore and SF. What do they have in common? Each lead their respective conference in rushing attempts.
Yes you have the last 15 years and you pick the anomaly. That's the definition of cherry picking which is you have a lot of data and you avoid it all to pick that which suits your argument.
15 years is basically a "who's who" of the best QBs with few exceptions. This year it's Mahomes.
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6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Peyton Manning threw 43 Interceptions in his first 2 years.
In his rookie year the Colts were in the bottom 1/3rd in the NFL in total offense.
They won 3 games his rookie year.
This is Peyton freaking Manning, the best prospect to join the NFL since John Elway before him.
Maybe you're expectations on improvement incrementally are just ridiculous.
The difference was Manning looked like an amazing QB growing into his skin. He threw for 3700 yards in year 1 and 4135 in year 2 when QBs rarely ever threw for 4,000 yards a game. His 1st game he threw for 302 yards. He did have 3 INTs but you knew he could throw.
His 4th game he threw for another 300 yards, but another 3 INTs. Look if Josh did any of those things we would be calm.
Manning's rookie season is like Jameis Winston in his 5th year with adjustments to the stats as 4,000 yards then is 5,000 now.
Year 2 his team is 13-3 and threw for 4,135 yards. With stat inflation to today's game that would be like throwing 4,800-4,900 yards in today's game.
I'm not comparing him to Peyton Manning, you did, I'm just pointing out that analogy is insane.
I still think our best bet is to take the Big Ben approach and focus 100% of our attention on letting Josh throw 20-25 times a game and running it like crazy. The question that has to be asked is can we pay Josh a game manager salary or will he want the big bucks. Ben's contract was a 10% to salary cap. If Josh progresses the same way 10% is about right.
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19 hours ago, thebandit27 said:
Ah yes, the “pass happy” NFL. In which a team whose QB attempted 29 total passes in 2 games toppled the AFC’s 1 and 3 seeds. A league in which the NFC champions attempted a total of 8 passes on a 65 degree day. A league in which the best team in the regular season broke the all-time rushing yardage record.I don’t care if you want to make a point about completion percentage (though I suspect if “he’s 31st!!2!1!!!1!2!” is what you’ve got, then you probably don’t look all too closely at things), but don’t say blatantly false things.
You might be surprised to learn you can't just run the ball without throwing it. The odds of you running the ball every play predictably looks like where the team tries to run out the game where they are usually 3 or 6 and out.
What he said about passing was true and is true. The 8 passing a game by Tannehill won 2 games and SF won with 8 times. This is an anomaly.
Look at the last 15 SB champions and every one of those teams were QB strong teams. It's not blatantly false, you're cherry picking
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It's still a passing league. The greats are retiring and probably not replaceable in the near future.
Because of that it will start to balance out. Not because it's not a passing league, but because Rivers is in decline, Brady, and others retired. All that's left for elite is Brees and Mahomes.
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What I learned the most is that scheme trumps most problems. The Chiefs D was mostly Spagnolo's changes, and their offense is Reid's.
That identity is just as important as talent. The Titans have a great identity and it's easy to win by knowing what you should do to win and not be fancy. Didn't work against the high powered Chiefs but got them there. The Chiefs identity is big plays and it works so get the personnel.
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7 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:
I think the Bills should load up on WR’s and TE’s, much like the Chiefs did, and especially before the Bills have to pay Allen over a $100M contract extension. With all the weapons Mahomes has at his disposal, it’s almost impossible for defenses to stop the Chiefs offense.
There is a lot to agree with, but it also takes execution and scheme and something which you can't coach... brass ones.
Did you see the 41 yard pass at the end of the game on 3rd down yesterday? That is Reid's confidence in his players and scheme.
In other words Mariota on the Titans with weapons wasn't the same team under Tannehill. The scheme changed and the players looked elite.
On the other hand Bridgewater gets to sit behind Brees, learn, and under that scheme play very serviceable. I guarantee you if you remove Bridgewater and put him on the Bengals he would be horrible.
Schemes, coaching, and yes players are important. I say the 2 most important pieces are scheme and QB.
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It appears the NFL can be won with just a great defense, great scheme for running the ball, and limiting turn-overs. You still have to creative in your play designs running the ball.
We just need a RT, bruiser RB and 1 WR over 6' who can catch + edge rushers
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3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:
Sorry Orton....that is not really true
There are literally like 2 to 3 plays a game right now that are separating Josh Allen from being a "B" level qb and a "A" level qb.
Those 3 plays are decided by a playmaker actually catching a ball that is thrown to them/Not thrown perfectly to them and a play being made.
Case in point....in this year's wild card game Josh Allen threw two passes that absolutely should have been caught by a quality WR for touchdowns.....they were not.....if they are caught we WIN that game and who knows what happens next.
Josh Allen needs more playmakers
That's not true either. He's a "D-" QB as a passer, and if he makes it to C I'm happy. A "C" is Andy Dalton 5 years ago. If you have a "C" passer with an "A" athlete that would make him borderline elite with a 220-240 yards passing, 60-63% completion, and 30 yards rushing as it would benefit the running game to keep a linebacker honest.
The 2-3 pass per game = elite is not an argument. Mahomes had a ton of drops yesterday and a bunch more against the Texans. He had 5 before the half with the Texans, and he still turned it around with more drops during the comeback with 28 points in a quarter. Mahomes has more playmakers, but he has drops.
Elite WRs are insanely rare, you just want good ones. Will Fuller isn't elite, but he's big enough to be open and have a ton of receptions.
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11 hours ago, The Red King said:
That same, slightly off pass gets dropped 99% of the time, and we then blame Allen. The Bills' WRs give Allen precious little margin of error, and when you think on it, that can mean the difference between 1st down and a 4th down punt. We also have nobody who will fight for the ball. Look at Duke Williams, and the end-zone incompletion. Disregard the arguement as to why he dropped it and look carefully. Duke at least gave Allen enough confidence to throw a contested pass into the end zone. That...never happened before.
I disagree on this, take the deep ball. The difference with the inaccurate, but accurate enough passes, is when and how they are thrown. If the receiver breaks 5 yards of separation you really have 10 yards to make the reception. You can throw it short and the receiver has to come back, or go deep in stride, or have them stop and try to catch it. That's 30 feet to make it work.
Josh routinely missed those by a country mile with about 4 passes he hit.
Now take his "drops". Most of the Knox drops were actually Knox's fault. The other passes I disagree. He constantly threw behind his receivers or at their feet. Watching live discussions of "drops" on here were borderline laughable. Allen doesn't throw the cleanest spiral, it's almost wobbling and throw at 45-50 mph at your feet or slightly behind you it's super hard to catch.
If I didn't work so much I would love to review old games to show you "drops" that aren't that close to being caught.
For your viewing pleasure look at Michael Thomas highlights and see if the placement of the ball to Thomas looks like the drops we have:
Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by BigBillsFan
Sorry but that's pretty far fetched. Playoffs appearances are meaningless to that list. Mark Sanchez didn't lead the Jets, the Jets led him to the AFC championship game.
The only 2 QBs on that list that "won" with their talent was Flacco and Manning who are the definition of hot and cold QBs. They got super hot in the post-season. Flacco was truly a "meh" QB most of his career. Luck was a good talent certainly as well. Flacco I wouldn't consider good at all.
What we're saying then is 2 out of 20 QBs had a decent career. Which means 9 out of 10 didn't. That puts the % of success at 10%. There is statistical relevancy.