BigBillsFan
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Posts posted by BigBillsFan
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On 1/26/2020 at 8:03 PM, CincyBillsFan said:
Allen was raw because he didn't attend those elite QB camps and he didn't benefit from top notch QB coaching until he was preparing to be drafted. I bet that between the age of 12 - 22 Allen threw a lot fewer passes, in any capacity (games, drills, practice, 7 on 7's, camps) then Jackson or Mahomes did. Allen is a true rarity among young QB's today - he's still learning how to play the position.
I agree with you but I think this is more of a problem. You can't coach a 23 yr old to be magically better at things he should know at 18 or 20. They can improve but to imagine it sticking with an important moment is next to near impossible without years of practice and less pressure to learn (or in our case a running game).
I should know because I tried to play professional sports when I was young and I realized how much I needed to grasp mentally and I realized I lacked the time to refine myself. Some of the things guys could do who were at camps since they were young I couldn't grasp doing myself. My mind couldn't slow down enough.
Raw talent is great but unharnessed its messy. It's like Yoda saying Luke was too old to start training to be a Jedi, not because of talent, but lack of refinement that takes a long time which is dangerous. Obviously I'm joking but my point is you can't issues with time except to let things be fixed through time. Aaron Rodgers on the bench was the best thing that could have happened to him and he was far more polished.
What is most startling is how many times QBs thought they were fixable and coachable until the rubber met the road under pressure: Leftwich and Tebow for example. Most times if a QB is really far off they usually don't make it with very few exceptions. That's why I pray we become a running team, get 1 more WR or great TE and focus on defense and rushing.
Allen will have a chance and if do what we saw in the 1st half of the Texans is possible we're in for a treat.
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This is really a bad poll. First because neither owner would want this, and second it’s unfair to Ralph Wilson. For all of his faults he loved the area, the area I grew up and watched my team.
I’m sure he was offered money to relocate and make more but he did it for us as well. He died as the owner because he loved football. That’s something worth cheering and cherishing.
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
But what do they tell us about Nick Mullins and Gardner Minshew?
Probably better ?
Wait definitely better ?
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4 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:
Vick was less accurate than Josh is and I’m not sure Jackson is any more accurate..
Ability to throw? LOL.
Josh’s decision making and mechanics are his issue.
I don't consider ability to throw Uncle Rico style chucking the rock. Most NFL passes for distance max out around 45mph.
Decision making and mechanics are your ability to throw. It's the whole of you is your ability to throw. If ability to throw is sheer power than Russell would have been all-world.
Steve Young for the long ball competition barely cleared 50 yards. Watson never cleared 50mph in the combine. Most long balls never clear 30-40 yards.
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Jackson is now a proven commodity, Josh isn't. Lamar might not last from injury, Allen might not because of ability to throw.
Vick could have played 8 years at a high level, we'll learn about Jackson but he's already viable, a freaking monster on the football field. If Josh can learn to make the right throws he'll be more viable, but the same could be said of Jackson. Jackson has shown more with his arm than Allen.
Jackson showed more in the 1st 2 games of 2019 than any of Josh's games. The 1st with his arm and 2nd with both arm and legs.
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I'm of the view you look for QBs in rounds 3-5 and draft one every 2-3 years unless your certain your starter is a true franchise QB.
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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
We don't need a Lee Evans type of WR. We need an Eric Moulds type of WR.
Obviously not Moulds talent which was rare, but a guy who kind of bullied his space and was open with confidence. Agreed 100000%
I like that sweetspot of 6-2 as well. I prefer guys 6-1 to 6-3.
Man Moulds was a beast. Loved that guy.
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30 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Both are correct, but the problem with guys like Poster B is that they say things like "Josh Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage!"
That's literally an argument I've seen regarding Allen in recent weeks.
I shouldn't have to explain why statements like this are problematic.
The main question is whether Josh Allen is getting better or worse?
Answer is pretty obvious.
Anyone with an understanding of where he was as a High School QB prospect just 6 years ago would pretty objectively be impressed if not astounded at how far he's progressed in that pretty brief period of time, especially without the rigorous single-sport focus and major QB camps most of these NFL QBs would have already gone through in High School.
Your argument has no weight, it's not how far he's come at all. It's about what he does or is able to. Every QB in the league from high school advanced, the question is where do they end up. It's rarely a lack of effort that stops success, it's just mental and physical limitations.
I hope it's Big Ben territory with more athleticism.
Also since it's me who pointed out his completion % it's also fairly obvious that objectivity isn't the end measure, but how we feel about him at this stage. I have hope for him, but not with the offensive schemes we have.
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2 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:
To be up 10 points late in the 4th quarter and then not only lose but lose by 11 is really remarkable.
The power of a potent offense is unstoppable with the new rules. A big running game with great defense can win, it's just super hard.
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10 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:
This is a fair take.
The reality is that even as a Josh Allen doubter, you have to acknowledge that given the reality of what you stated above, the Bills will provide him with at least the next 2 years to sink or swim.
Bill Parcells always said that teams have a 4-year strategy when it comes to assessing highly drafted young QBs. Year 1: he is a rookie learning what it is like to be an NFL QB, so that season serves as a mulligan (assuming the talent flashes are there). Year 2: Signs of improvement need to show up. Year 3: He needs to show the ability to go out and win games. Year 4: You either have your Franchise QB or decide to move on.
By any measure, Josh Allen is well on track. Let's hope he continues the progression entering his 3rd season.
Here's the crazy thing... I'm not a Josh doubter at all, I want him to get the chance to be a great QB. I want him to start next season.
Here's what I hope for... turn him into a simpler QB, focus more on running the ball and have him just throw faster out of his hand. I wouldn't care if we really become a running team. I see flaws he can grow into, I just don't think Daboll will do that. I think he'll try to outsmart the opposing DC.
I really don't think if he does dink and dunk with a strong running game and an above TE we can't have success with this defense and I certainly think Allen's first half in the playoffs shows he can do even more than that. But give him a chance.
I don't think Daboll is allowing that, and I think he'll ruin Allen's chances.
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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Let's just say that if it were true that Mullins in his rookie year showed more than a #7 draft pick in his second season, GMs across the league from teams who need QB would be burning up the phone lines to make a deal for the guy.
I'll just point out the paradox of simultaneously pointing out the impact of the team, vs the claim that Mullins in his rookie season showed more than Allen in his 2nd year, then I'm out.
There are tons of guys who show massive promise as a rookie or their 2nd year but aren't a high pick and waste their careers with no opportunities because they weren't drafted as high. Duck Hodges was better in practice than Mason Randolph but they played him even when it was obvious he was stinking up the joint.
Same was true between Trent and Losman, and RGIII and Cousins.
Do you really think Trent Green was better than Kurt Warner until his injury or that Eli Manning was better than Warner, or that Matt Leinart was better than Warner?
Facts are coaches are forced to play inferior players because the GMs and possibly coaches are forced to look smart with whom they drafted because they see a higher upside.
I've seen you post a bunch, you know this is true. Players rarely get a fair shake and teams are willing to lose rather than miss on QB to make their point. Whaley went so far to blow 2 1sts on Watkins to save his job to salvage EJ.
The 1st round is a grave yard of GMs careers wanting to be proved correct on the QB. Just ask Brian Billick was a great coach turned heel over Boller. GMs and coaches even destroy their QB roster to give the 1st rounder confidence they won't lose their job. I mean why in the world would you keep Peterman over McCarron?
A lot of QBs are never given a fair shake just because of where they are drafted.
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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
YPG is a nonsense stat. Depends far too much on how many throws a guy made, play calls, how often his team was ahead and whether they like to run out the clock, as the Bills do, when they are ahead.
And what a surprise that you left all the running stuff out! Gosh, who could have predicted that? Except anyone looking at your agenda, of course....
So even throwing out the run stats, which shouldn't be done, he wasn't bottom third after those first four games. Again, what you have there is a very questionable opinion.
YPG is some measurement of success. A QB throwing under 200 yards per game will typically score less points. The correlation is obvious. Being LAST in that category practically means we have to score 17 points to win and keep the opponent under that.
We're not talking about middle of the pack, we're talking about LAST. LAST in YPG = sucks.
YPG is a non-sense stat IF you're an amazing running team with sustained success. Big Ben's stats his first 3 years are an indicator of that. He walked into a great situation. If that was our identity I would agree with you. Ben as a rookie threw only 187 YPG but his YPA was 8.9 and his accuracy was 66%. Teams had to respect his arm.
Also only 18 teams were over 200 yards per game in passing in 2004 & 2005 (Ben's rookie year), today that number is 27 teams are over 200 yards.
Of course I left out running, no QB ever has succeeded long term as a running QB. We'll talk about how amazing Lamar Jackson DID in 2019 and maybe 2020 but not in 2025 unless he develops in the pocket. Men peak in speed around 22-26 years of age and after taking shots it goes down rapidly.
Running stats have NEVER been a measure of a QB success long-term. If I'm wrong name me one, if I'm right realize you're the troll
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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:
Ah yes....the football world is still abuzz over that sweet Nick Mullens 8 game, 3 win stretch where he threw 13 TDs to go with 10 ints (was working on a nice 26/20 season!). But
that YPA!! Conversely, the football world was almost uniformly commenting on how bad Josh Allen looked this year and that he has a single season left to turn it all around.
And since you brought it up: Mullen's QBR (for a fraction of the season) was 51.7. Allen's this year was 47.3. No meaningful difference there. While 11 QBs were above 60, 8 players were clustered between 47.3 and 53.7, including Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Goff.
Unfortunately we will never know what your potential source of ecstasy's QBR would be if he had to play a full season...
Wait you do realize his 3-5 record is the same as Allen's right? Except his defense sucked that year. You also realize we're comparing an undrafted QB to a 1st rounder too right?
Perfect game to compare...
If Allen had a game like this: https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018120213/2018/REG13/49ers@seahawks
And we lost we would all be excited for his potential. Wilson threw horribly that game, but the Seahawks ran the ball great, while 49ers fumbled and couldn't run the ball.
And YES ALLEN won this game in 2018 against the Titans with his UNREAL and border PRETERNATURAL ability at 10/19 passing for 82 yards
https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018100700/2018/REG5/titans@bills
But let's all pretend the Mullins sucked and LOST that game, but Allen was responsible for the win just like Brees sucked when they went 7-9 3 years in a row.
The fact we can argue Mullins vs Allen is the joke right now. That's my point.
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45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
If it's not saying he's on the "cusp of losing his job" to say if he has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line, I'm not sure what is.
1 yr in football is a long time. His job is safe this year. That's not the cusp of losing his job. Football years are like dog years.
QuoteYou do know that the goal of a football team isn't to pile up stats that are better than other team's QB, no?
It's to...wait for it...win football games?
I mean, you can go be all ecstatic about Nick Mullins and his 3 wins for the 49ers last year if you like.
We do know they drafted #2 last year, right, that's how they got Bosa?
You do know that the goal of winning isn't on 1 person, no? That development and seeing signs they can succeed on the big stage is more important than winning? That people on bad teams aren't responsible for all of the losses or that people like Peyton Manning who showed promise as a rookie was much better than playing it safe for wins right?
Nick Mullins in his rookie year showed more than Allen in his and his 2nd year. Are you really going to deny that? If Allen had any games like Mullins THIS year people would be hush hush about development.
This isn't a game of magical QBs. You think Brees's 2016 season at 7-9 is because of Brees? Or that the 12-4 Bears last year was because of Trubisky? Brees threw for over 5k yards, 70% completions, over 100 QB rating, over 7 yards a completion and they were still bad because of their defense.
Wins don't = QB. Brees played fantastic and for 3 years in a row the Saints were 7-9. Manning in his prime was better than EVERYONE IMO (maybe Rogers is an exception) and only 1 SB and only won his 2nd when he sucked. Did Manning win the big game for the Broncos too? 13-23 141 yards 0 TDs 1 INT.
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1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:
You will somehow be surprised but certainly disappointed to learn that Allen isn not on the cusp of losing his job. If you can't discern a difference between his natural talent and Trubisky's, for instance, then there's no discussion to be had.
Nice to see you've written off the NFL MVP already.
Anyway, I'll measure a QB by potential. 29 TDs and 10 wins with Daboll (not Reid) as your play designer and caller, no serious TE, Mediocre WR, a RB that doesn't run that often and an O-line that still has a long way to go towards decent....that's pretty good.
Cherry picking? Stats that don't matter long term? You laid down QB rating (AND QBR lol), YPA and fumbles----without a hint of irony. Strong work, son.
I never said he was on the cusp of losing his job, or that I've written off the MVP (even remotely) so congrats on defeating the best arguments I've never made.
I did say if Allen has a bad year next year, or has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line.
And yes if you didn't know that QB rating, YPA and fumbles aren't huge components to long-term success than your rose colored glasses aren't changing color soon.
COMPARE important stats:
YPA vs rushing per game
Passing TDs vs rushing TDs
Passing yards vs rushing yards
You'll see history hasn't been kind to people who use your stats.
BTW I'm not a big fan of QBR but I ask you if QBR and best players have any connection?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/descIt appears it's a decent indicator of all the top QBs except Aaron Rodgers this year.
Or maybe if Josh Allen can't beat Gardner Minshew on QBR, QB rating, YPA, YPG & more TDs as a QB with 14 games as a rookie than any argument is viable. I mean I would be ecstatic if Allen could have pulled what Nick Mullins did for the 49ers last year this year. Nick Freaking Mullins
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15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
#9 in total TDs. (more than Brady, Brees, Cousins, Wentz, Goff, Ryan....)
Tied for 1st in 4th Q comebacks.
10 wins (only 7 had more).
But yeah.....that QBR and YPA.
So you want to measure QBs in Kaepernick/RGIII/Lamar Jackson terms? Because that's a good recipe for QB success long term. ?
Yeah because wins are a product of the QB, just like Mitch Trubisky in 2018. He led his team! Hey at least Mitch was better in YPA, rating, YPG, and they ended up 12-4. And Brees sucked when they were 7-9 and he threw for 5k yards over 100 QB rating.
Oh that's right Mitch is on cusp of losing his job with better competition this year.
You see being a QB isn't cherry picking stats that don't matter long-term. If you can't throw a football well and consistently you typically don't keep your job despite rushing yards & TDs, and the INSANE AMAZING 4th quarter comebacks against the Jets, Broncos, and YES the MIGHTY Bengals really got me excited.
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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:
In 2019:
Bottom 1/3 in yards? no
Bottom 1/3 in TD passes? no
Bottom 1/3 in wins? no
Bottom 1/3 in rushing yards for QB? no
Bottom 1/3 for rushing TD for QB? no
and you "should know"....because you go all the way back to the Losman debates!
FACTS 2019
Last in YPG
Last in completion %Last in TDs thrown for 16 starts
Bottom 10% in fumbles
Bottom 33% in QB rating
Bottom 33% in QBRBottom 33% in YPA
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34 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
They are acknowledging the impact on Alex Smith's fibula...
Those 2017 Bills went to the playoffs--even with the Taylor-Peterman combo.
Is Josh Allen, who got killed a lot in his first year starting on the (6-10) Bills, hanging by a thread career-wise?
Allen currently is poor, in bottom 1/3rd of all QBs. Sorry that’s just a truth.
He isn’t hanging on by a string if we make the playoffs next year as that will buy him 1 more year, but if we have our own Rams year of 2019 with a tough schedule and he’s still in the bottom 1/3rd no QB is safe with 3 years in a row.
No GM or HC is going to run the risk of 4 years of a QB in the bottom 33%. The playoffs are like a band-aid over the problem, but eventually if the band-aid isn’t there everyone will see the wound.
If Allen was a 3rd rounder or lower we would already acknowledge this. I should know, I remember the Losman debates.
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37 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
His deficiencies, eh?
Anyway, Tyreek Hill and Kelce are pretty good "route runners".
Anyway, Andy Reid has had his "vision" for 21 years and over 200 wins but he could only "make it work" with Mahomes. Couldn't do it with McNabb or Vick--both pretty good athletes. Reid with Alex Smith wasn't going to win any SB even with all the current playmakers on that team.
Watching Mahomes play the past 2 years and concluding that Reid has made up for Mahomes's "deficiencies"? You have i backwards, I think.
Ok let's flip the script. He's on our team with Rick Dennison in 2017 or Daboll in 2018. How do you think that would turn out?
Now let's take Vick, your example, and he goes from 160 yards a game with the Falcons to 250 yards per game with Reid.
He took McNabb to the NFC championship for 3 years in a row. In other words Reid knew how to mold those players to what he wanted with his scheme.
My point somehow was lost in your post. I'm not saying Mahomes would be a scrub on the Rams under McVay, but he would be under Dennison/Daboll (Bills), or the Bengals. There is a bit of luck they can mentally adapt to the NFL but the GMs, schemes, and HC make the player more than the player himself when it comes to QBs.
The coach and the GM have to have a vision for the QB with players and scheme.
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He threw that ball and didn't just run it so he didn't turtle up. If he ran it and it got stuffed fair point, that's NOT what happened.
He tried to stay balanced even with a lead to stop predictability. He did the right thing. Players can and will fail to execute.
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It's much simpler...
We have no real offense, especially not the kind of offense needed to win against better teams and in the playoffs.
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4 minutes ago, mattynh said:
Similarly Brees will never be Mahomes. Which one will have more success in the big picture at the end of their careers?
Agreed, but Brees came from different rules. You'll notice the top guys from 20 years ago became efficient with time out of their hand as a big component to their success.
Now with the WR rules it benefits a Mahomes more. Get a little time and throw the ball. It could benefit Allen too.
Mahomes with a Reid/Pederson type coach will have more success than Brees. Brees has to throw 25-30 completions to have a great game, Mahomes only needs 6-8. Its like what Deontay Wilder said when he said his opponents have to be right 100% of the time to beat him and all he needs is 1 second. It's a different game/mindset.
It's why defensive teams will struggle to win the big one. They can, but it will be hard. They have to be right all the time, the big play offense only has to be right a few times.
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48 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:
This is a really good take.
Too bad you're only one person. Could use about a million more of you.
Nah if we all agreed the board would be boring. Having men argue about things outside of their control is enjoyment that goes back for thousands of years. Politics is the ultimate example.
To quote the guy from Godzilla "Let them fight"
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Here's the truth about Mahomes... his scheme makes up for his deficiencies. Reid built that team around athleticism first and playmakers, not precise route-running. Mahomes is not and will never be Brees.
It works because the coach made it work. He saw in Mahomes what he could do and knew that was his guy.
Mahomes on the Bengals would suck, a "bust" if you will.
That's why drafts aren't as important as GMs and coaches with a vision. You can take a 6th round QB and figure him out in NE, or Big Ben and let him ride along a running attack. Montana under Reeves wouldn't have been Montana, etc..
GMs and coaches that have a vision are the real keys for success.
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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
You really can't compare the guy who had the best year in college sports history who was recruited to OSU and Allen. Improvement sure, but it's not close.
Why? Because it's the greatest turn-around ever, and never at that level.
It's one thing for the guy to click (Burrow), another for a guy to grow into the position (Allen). Burrow played a small bit in 2016 and his stats were fantastic. Still a tiny sample size.
It's comparing apples to oranges and I do agree with you Allen being thrown to wolves and losing his rookie year to stupidity and bad planning.
The mental differences between all of those reps for success cannot be done quickly. Name me a QB with as bad as a path as Allen who had a very successful career. I mean I'm open to the idea, I just think he needs 2 more years from today.
Put it another way, if you could draft Burrow or Allen in 2020 who do you think GMs would pick 1st and why? It's Burrow all day long because he has a history of playing the position with better mechanics longer, even if he didn't shine until his senior year but when he did he lit the place up.
Yes Allen's trajectory is up, but going from the bottom to the bottom 1/3rd isn't a vast difference just yet. Honestly I'll be happy if he's 15th in the league with his ability to run and improvise.