Billy Claude
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Posts posted by Billy Claude
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8 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:
It would make sense that NE and possibly others were in play for Diggs - which is why the Bills ended up giving up a 1st rounder to close the deal.
The more I think about it - given Diggs’ age, contract and ability it makes sense to trade the pick than to draft an unknown commodity like Tee Higgins
So it appears that Brady's last act as a Patriot was to drive up the price the Bills paid for Diggs.
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Jerry Sullivan is right much more often than he is wrong.
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3 hours ago, HOUSE said:
Should be interesting to see if Brandon Beane says the same about Tre White & Josh Allen when the time comes
To answer original question :. Beane said something quite different about Shaq Lawson at the end of the season presser. Something like the Bills will make a strong effort to resign Lawson vs. Phillips earned a chance to test free agency.
I assume something similar would happen for White and Allen though more likely they will be extended before it comes to this point.
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What I don't understand is why AVP would go public with this. Mayfiel6 doesn't seem to be someone to take this as constructive criti ism. It's pretty bad judgement on van pelts part.
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33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I hated the Rex hire from moment dot. I hated it more than the Jauron hire and the Gailey hire. And that says something.
Certainly some people hated the Rex hire from day one but, in general, it was regarded as a risky but understandable move by both fans and media. Same with a lot of other things mentioned in this thread such as the Bledsoe trade.
To be a true head-scratcher both the media and fans have to be pretty much wtf from the moment it occurred. After reading this thread I would rank them as follows
(1) Johnson over Flutie
(2) Drafting Spiller with Beastmode and Freddy already on the team
(3) Naming Nate Peterman as opening day starter based on one good pre-season game.
(4) Hiring Marv as GM when he was almost 80
(5) Extending Jauron based on a 5-2 start against a bunch of bad teams.
If you look back there was a lot of initial support for the other stuff mentioned in the thread.
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8 minutes ago, Mickey said:
Hiring Rex Ryan
While hiring Rex was horrible in hindsight, I think a lot of people thought it was a good hire at the time. OTOH, drafting Spilled when they had Lynch was met with almost universal puzzlement.
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Extending dick neuron after half of a good season.
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30 minutes ago, Steptide said:
Personally I'd take Rex over Marrone in a heartbeat.
Not that Marrone was great but at least the team improved while he was coach. He didn't go out of his way to promote himself --if he called himself St. Doug, it wasn`t at a press conference.
Rex otoh was all bombastic self promotion.
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Rex Ryan with Rob Ryan second. No one else close.
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For what its worth, Bleacher Report gives the Bills an A in their one season assessment:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2869617-grading-every-nfl-teams-2019-draft-haul#slide0
Its interesting that they also gave As to two of the teams that were most criticized originally, the Giants and the Raiders.
Their original post-draft grades were A for the Bills, B for the Raiders and D for the Giants.
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This would defeat one of the primary purposes of the salary cap - competitive parity. Right now if a team picks up a bad contract there is an immediate financial penalty - the team has to pay the player. If a team can trade away cap space for draft choices there is very little financial penalty for that team. Some owners will decide to its is better to have larger profit than fielding a winning team. Other owners in larger markets with larger local income will go way over the cap. You will essentially get the same situation as baseball.
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To improve from last to 21st in accuracy in one year is pretty impressive and is not too bad for a second year qb (assuming you are not Mahomes). Its better than I thought he did. I would be pretty happy if Allen can get into the top 15 in accuracy next year. I don't think he will ever get into the top 10 in accuracy but with his other skill set (running etc.) and keeping turnovers to a minimum, Allen can be a pretty effective QB.
On how the drops effect the games: Obviously the extra drops don't affect the outcome of the games they won and they won 60% so out of those 7 drops you would only expect 2 or 3 in the 6 games the Bills lost. So basically, you have to assume 1 extra drop would have effected the outcome of the game. Its certainly possible but to me, it is unlikely. Certainly I don't see how you can have confidence that one drop would have swung the game.
Finally on counting drops. -- I believe that the "official" drops are only counted for balls that are easily catchable without a defender in the immediate vicinity, i.e., something you would expect an NFL WR to catch 90% of the time. Bad throws are not counted as drops -- its not like the discussion on the board last summer where someone said basically anything reachable was a drop.
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As mentioned before the obvious difference is the adjusted net yard per attempt (ANY/A). Wilson's was 6.84 which ranked 7th that year while Allen's is 5.72 which ranked 23rd. Everybody supporting the narrative that their numbers are similar seems to ignore this obvious one. However, lets consider some other global rating methods.
They are remarkably consistent:
NFL Rating: Wilson 2013: 7th, Allen 2018: 32nd, Allen 2019: 24th (NFL)
ANY/A: Wilson 2013: 7th, Allen 2018: 32nd, Allen 2019: 23rd (Pro Football Reference)
DYAR: Wilson 2013: 9th, Allen 2018: 33rd, Allen 2019: 27th (Football Outsiders)
DVOA: Wilson 2013: 8th, Allen 2018: 33rd, Allen 2019: 27th (Football Outsiders)
QBR: Wilson 2013: 8th, Allen 2018: 24th, Allen 2019: 24th (ESPN)
I like ANY/A since the formula is easy to understand (Passing yds - sack yards + (20*passing TDs) - (45*interceptions))/(attempts + sacks). The other measures try to take into account opponent strength.
In any case all the global measures are extremely consistent --(1) Wilson was a lot better in his 2nd year than Allen was and (2) Allen improved from his rookie year.
The only rating that differs is QBR which gave Allen a much better ranking in 2018 than the others, most possibly because it includes rushing while the other's don't.
You might ask is there a difference between 7th and 24th? The QB's ranked 24 and 25 in the different metrics in 2013 were ANY/A: Keenum, Campbell, DVAR: Locker, Clemens, DVOA: Vicks, Clemens, NFL Rating: Tannehill, Cassell QBR: Cassell, Tannehill.
So unless you want to believe that all these metrics are wrong I don't how one can say Allen year 2 is anywhere close to Wilson year 2.
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Great first season for Singletary. To take the next step he needs to work on his cutting down his fumbles and drop passes and on his pass blocking. I assume pass blocking was why he didn't play as much at the end of the Texan game.
The weird thing is that he did not have any fumbling issues in college: 1 in 261 carries in 2018 and 4 in 301 carries in 2017 vs 4 in 151 this season. Same with Josh Allen -- no fumbling issues in college but big issues this season.
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TBD has been surprisingly accurate regarding their whipping boys post Rex.
Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, Ryan Groy, Russell Bodine, Juan Castillo, Nathan Peterman (post-savior state), Tyrod Taylor, Danny Crossman has all been shaded pretty hard and
I don't know think any of these guys have had much success elsewhere yet.
Dabol along with Cody Ford are probably the top whipping boys right now. I don't know if Dabol is a good coach but I am pretty sure not simplifying a really complex system for a 2nd year QB with 9 new starters on offense is not a great idea.
Of course, Ed Oliver was developing into a whipping boy until he turned it around the second half of the year so the board is not always right.
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There was a whole thread about how lucky the Bills were:
(1) A historically weak schedule
(2) Lots of missed field goals by opponents
(3) Very few injuries
(4) Played a lot of backup qbs or qbs that were soon to be benched
(5) Only four out of 14 of Allen's fumbles were lost -- the expected rate is 45% of qb fumbles are lost.
The Bills had a very good season but to say that were not lucky doesn't seem reasonable. Similary Allen showed a lot of improvement and a lot of promise but to say he was as good as Wilson in year 2 doesn't make a lot of sense.
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The schedule will be more difficult just from probability. If you randomly pick any team, any season in the last 20 years there is probably about a 95% chance their schedule was harder than the Bills.
Otoh, they have 90M on cap space, a full complement of draft choices, and one more year of experience should help Allen and Edwards so the Bills should also be better so they don't have to rely on luck as much.
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Wade is 72, so maybe he thinks will be easier path to be dc?
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I don't see anything that he should be criticized for. They were losing, he was depressed, a teammate told saw this and told him to buck up and he did.
Whats wrong with that?
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There was plenty of blame to go around. I hope we don't go back to attack anyone who says anything vaguely critical about Josh Allen mode during the board was during the last off-season.
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It's probably because McDermott is given most of the credit for the defense rightly or wrongly. Also as noted by the others, defense is not sexy now.
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2 hours ago, Ned Flanders said:
Look at this season's 8-8 Bears team...12-4 a year before with a relatively soft schedule and a QB on the rise (sound familiar?).
The 2020 schedule is a death march compared to this past season. Four trips out west and another to Nashville. Long way to go until September, but going 10-6 next year will be a bit more difficult.
All true but the difference is the Bills have a lot of cap space and a full set of draft choices that the Bears did not have.
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22 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
Not sure what this proves. The YPA advantage for Newton (8.0 vs. 6.7) is pretty substantial. To me, that and the INT % (2.0 to 2.5 in favor of Allen) are the most important stats.
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They were basically a low level but legitimate playoff team -- not like two years ago when they were probably one of the worse teams ever to make the playoffs.
I hope the board learns some lessons from this year.
(1) Just because someone in the national media says something critical about the Bills -- it doesn't mean that there is some kind of agenda against Buffalo. Lots of times they are making a perfectly reasonable opinion. Its more likely that you are biased coming in as a fan than the other way around.
(2) A win is a win and it doesn't effect your record whether you squeak by a bad team or destroy a good team but it certainly should play a role in judging how good a team is and predictions for the next game.
(3) It is not always the OL, WR, OC, HC, or GM's fault. Sometimes it really is Josh Allen's fault. Neither is it always Josh Allen's fault.
(4) Josh Allen is showing promise but if almost all the numbers says he is a slightly below average quarterback, right now, that is probably what he is. It doesn't mean he can't improve but plenty of QBs have plateaued at this level. Next year we will know.
(5) There is no such thing as field goal an PAT defense unless its a block. Sometimes luck is luck.
(6) It is hardly surprising a young team with almost no playoff experience messes up in a critical situation. They have a huge amount of cap space, a very young team, a GM and coach who appears to have a plan. I am hopeful for next year.
Bills/Diggs trade - did it drive Brady to leave NE?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Presumably the Bills would have paid less If New England wasn`t interested. Whether that was the 4th rounder or the 6th for 7th swap, I have no idea but I just thought it was ironic that Brady screwed the Bills over one last time on the way out.