Generic_Bills_Fan
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Posts posted by Generic_Bills_Fan
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48 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
I think you are addressing the wrong issues here. Most of the info you provided is pretty useless.
I think it's imperative to look at the Bills vs Bengals match up. When i do that objectively I don't like the Bills chances.
I think it’s pretty fair game to dig into your opponents previous match up especially when it’s the game that caused the masses to declare they are back to top form because they beat a supposedly elite opponent
SF has yet to win a game without a healthy Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel and there’s a clear reason for that.
the cincy defense is gettable in a lot of areas much like our defense is…49ers were just too depleted to do it. Linebackers have looked worse this year, corners aren’t very good, safeties aren’t good, Hendrickson is an absolute beast though and dj reader is good.
on offense they’re scary for sure I don’t think anyone is arguing that. Haven’t been great running the football most of the year though.
We notoriously struggle against TEs up the seam and they have replaced Hayden hurst with irv smith which is a pretty big downgrade. Hurst beat us up pretty good in that playoff game
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On 10/29/2023 at 1:25 AM, Einstein said:
I disagree.
This is what Allen is seeing (photo below). An open Kincaid with a large enough space between Allen and the free rusher to rifle a patented Josh Allen tomahawk missile, despite the tight alley.
I truly believe if this same scenario was attempted 10 times in a row, Allen completes at least 8 of them.
Winfield jumps in the air and barely gets one hand (maybe even half a hand) on the ball. It was a good play by Winfield, and Allen probably should have just ate the sack, but as mentioned before, he knows he can make it work more times than not.
This is a perfect example of how the broadcast angle at full speed really doesn’t tell the whole story.
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16 minutes ago, NewEra said:
He’s terrible.
It’s crazy that Brady was so good that his backup qbs got ample chances to start on other teams without having to prove a thing
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2 hours ago, QCity said:
It has almost nothing to do with "narrative." After stats the 2nd biggest correlating factor is team regular season win-loss record (voting happens before the playoffs). The last 6 MVPs were QBs that led their team to the #1 seed and home-field advantage.
You might not, but every sportsbook in the country would. Be careful, these books make a fortune off hometown fans that overrate their team/players and think they see value where none exists. We haven't been playing well against mediocre opponents, the schedule gets tougher, and the weather is going to get a lot worse.
It’s a really interesting situation…looking back in the past it’s mostly been players winning it on the best team but you can’t really point to a time where they obviously passed up somebody with better stats because there were better teams either lol I really don’t know what would even happen in a hypothetical scenario where maybe he is pretty clearly the best statistical qb but the bills snag a wildcard or are the 4 seed or something like that
I do understand the point you’re making for sure but +1400 for the guy leading in tds thats team is only a game behind the division/conference leader with an opportunity against a lot of heavy hitters feels like pretty good value. I’d roll the dice on it if it was legal in this state 😂. I figure he should be in the +700/+800 range in what I’d put his chances at of goin off in the second half. I was pretty shocked to see +1400
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2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Adams is very upset. Make a phone call
Davante Adams to buffalo would be pretty funny after he publicly complained about that Taylor rapp hit lol
he basically said rapp has to play dirty because he’s bad
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Just now, BBFL said:
So is this the last chance Jimmy G is handed a starting job in the league…?
Has to be…they are in this game if he doesn’t miss a laughably wide open davante adams there
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36 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
oh good Lord! He is 28! Not 38.
He’s younger than Derrick Henry lol
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3 hours ago, JTown said:
Wow... you "shelled out" for Sunday Ticket? OMG... you take it serious. Smfh.
I have had Sunday Ticket since 1995.
Did I say anything about SF or their injuries? No
Did I say anything about the point spread? No
Did I mention SF? No
I said they (Cincy) are more physical on both sides of the ball.
Quit trying to make the narrative something else.
Do I want the Bills win? Absof#$%^&luteal!
Congrats on your Sunday Ticket.
Haha it was a jokey way to say I watched the bengals play a lot this year 😂 yeesh. You said stats don’t matter, I countered with I’ve been watching the games I’m not just looking at a stat sheet. Then I added SF got whooped in the trenches on the offensive side of the ball because they were down two huge pieces on the oline. All super relevant info to your earlier retort about how the bengals are more physical on both sides of the ball.
I literally replied directly to your ‘narrative’ and refuted it with factual information…you just don’t agree which is fine -
14 minutes ago, section122 said:
Unfortunately I don't think you can bet on postseason awards in new york
Ohhhh that is the issue I’m having haha that explains a lot
3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:MVP is as much about the narrative as the stats. If there was a vote right now Tua wins it.
If Josh goes on a tear against the Bills tougher stretch opponents he could well still end up with the stats and the narrative.
Yea it’s a bit surprising to me that he’s the leader in tds and only a game behind the dolphins/chiefs with one to play against both those teams and he still has long shot odds
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39 minutes ago, JTown said:
Whatever... you go with your stat..
Lol I mean it’s not just stats I’ve seen them getting gashed in the trenches every week. I shelled out for the good ol Sunday ticket 😂 49ers without Trent brown/Deebo and Aaron banks going down midgame were a lot easier to manhandle than they would’ve been normally.
If we were in a similar situation and had to play cincy without diggs and a few starting offensive linemen I would absolutely agree with the sentiment here that we’d get utterly humiliated. Right now I think cincy being a 1.5-3.5 point favorite sounds about right
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7 minutes ago, QCity said:
If he plays great next week on the road in Cinci in primetime and wins in front of the whole country, then sure it will change. If he plays poorly and the Bills lose then he's probably in an insurmountable hole.
If you're feeling lucky he's +1500 on Caesars.
Trying to place that bet as we speak lol I think he’s one good game in the national spotlight away from jumping to +400
At some point even if the team only wins 10 games I feel like his stats could be a tier above everyone to the point where they might have to give it to him but I have genuinely no idea how they’d handle that if it happens 😂.
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19 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:
There’s so much more season left, and this could be a year where someone who was written off early makes a late run from nowhere and takes it.
Allen is in the race based solely on his statistical outlier of a season so far compared to other QBs, and you are correct that his team is 5-3 making it virtually impossible to win without a leading #1 QB record. When you finish in the middle of the pack record wise everything you failed at doing is amplified.
As we all know it’s not how you start but how you finish.
If Josh is the have any shot at MVP, he will have to fare well down the stretch run against the likes of @ Burrow, @ Hurts, @ Mahomes, H Prescott, @ Herbert & @ Tua. It’s likely Allen will be a road dog in all but the Chargers game.
3/5 of those QBs are the early MVP favorites, and Burrow & Herbert could easily be added to the convo. Luckily for us those games are critical to the Bills season.
This is shaping up to be a really interesting season of mvp voting…I think just based on his situation of having to carry the defense every week josh is probably gonna finish with the best stats. Not sure how many wins it will translate to though.
the futures bets do seem to be heavily influenced by who’s winning but that could be partly factoring in certain guys turning it around. Hurts is up near the top in futures betting but if the season ended today I don’t think he’d have a chance. Mahomes lost some skill position talent but his defense has stepped up, I thought he was a sure thing based on the schedule remaining but that broncos loss hurt. Tua will keep roasting bad teams but he’s got a great running game that encroaches on his stats a bit.
josh at +1200 seems like a pretty insane value bet for a guy that’s leading in some major statistical categories right now.
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6 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:
I already did... -2 is good enough for me, even though it is Monday.
If we lose, we'll be 5-4 and after the Broncos, which doesn't look like an automatic W by ANY MEANS, we get the Jets, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys.
Fans may not run the team, but fans sure as hell support the team and keep it viable. A piss poor product with all of the talent we have SHOULD be roundly criticized and OBD will hear about it.
If this year taught me anything there’s no automatic wins or automatic losses. A week ago KC looked like a guaranteed loss but now a week later with no nick Bolton they look very beatable. Cowboys are just the NFC version of us that is wildly inconsistent, philly don’t seem unbeatable either. We could win or lose any of those games and there’s just no sense in trying to predict anything 😂
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14 minutes ago, JTown said:
Cincy is too physical on both sides of the ball for our finesse style of play. I will be shocked if we get out of Sunday nights game without injuries.
They’re 29th in rushing ypg and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game. I think that’s a much different game Sunday if Trent brown and Deebo were available…they racked up 400 plus yards without those guys.
not saying we’ll win but cincys single game against sf is getting a little bit overblown imo,they haven’t looked like that all year even in their wins.
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47 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
It isn't as hyperbolic as it seems. As I said above:
Oh yea he’s valuable for sure but asking for two firsts and a pro bowler ‘just to get the conversation started’ seems like a hard line negotiation tactic. They would take that deal in an absolute instant if anyone was crazy enough to offer that (which I doubt anyone would be)
rams traded two 1sts and a fourth for Ramsey from the jags and even that was a ton.
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20 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Even that isn't nearly enough apparently. Per Benjamin Albright, the reported price tag is Two 1st's plus a Pro Bowl Calibur Player "to even get the conversation started"
That seems a bit hyperbolic from their side haha they’ll certainly want more than we would offer though.. no way anyone gives them that.
the two firsts is already pushing it before getting to the pro bowler 😂
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1 hour ago, jletha said:
Cincy looked like most expected them to look all season yesterday. But this was FAR and away their best game of the year. This is a week to week league. Our offense looked unstoppable against Miami and quite good leading up to that, and then sputtered. A lot of teams can look great for one week and then not the next. Cincy is absolutely stoppable.
Will we stop them? Who knows. But to imply its a foregone conclusion seems silly. And our should continue to improve on what we established Thus.
The X factor for cincy has always been defense to me, and I don’t think their defense has reached close to the heights of last season yet…doesn’t mean they won’t Sunday though. They held SF to 17 but so did Minnesota the week before and Cleveland the week before that, SF also piled up 400ish non garbage time yards missing their best offensive player against cincy they just turned it over a few too many times.
last year the bengals were all over the top 10 of the list in all advanced defensive metrics, this year they’re a little under the midpoint.
we moved the ball pretty well on a tough TB defense too which was getting a ton of credit around here before the game with people predicting we’d lose because of it but I don’t see it mentioned much anymore lol I think we’re in for a shootout
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Just now, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:
I think Purdy and the offense are who they've been all year. The last 2 weeks the DEF has been shredded. Purdy and the O are not nearly as good when playing from behind and he's a turnover machine when trying to make something happen late in games.
Cincy may be good but people are hypin them up a bit too much from that one win…if SF was looking dominant leading up to that bengals game it would be a different story.
really they just beat a mediocre at best team by two scores who amassed a ton of yards and had a couple boneheaded turnovers. Sf almost outgained their previous two games combined in this one. I’m expecting a shootout on Sunday that could go either way based on red zone success.
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1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:
Well, I guess we are going to find out. Losing head to head against Cinci and LAC most certainly is a meaningful conference loss. Not only do we lose the head to head against them but it worsens our conference record against teams we won't have a head to head game with. Those to me are the most important wins, not the meaningless ones.
lac is a huge game if we’re talking wildcard…in all my scenarios I’m just assuming cincy or baltimore is the top wildcard spot. The chargers are as inconsistent or more than the bengals and bills though and they’re starting in a bit of a hole with an extra loss.
They’ve also got ravens,bills,chiefs,lions on the schedule still so we are far from the only team with tough games left. Also the jets as well which is the part nobody really accounts for in threads like this. In those scenarios one of two wildcard hopefuls is guaranteed to drop a game
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12 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
I didn't say 4 teams are going to come out of the north. At least one is likely to. Thats one less spot out of 3. It's not unheard of for 3 teams to happen. It's happened in one conference for the last 3 years.
The AFC is still a dog fight this year. There are a lot of teams that are within 1 game of us right now. All but the Pats are within 2 games. We can't afford conference losses if we lose the division because either the other teams have a better conference record currently or we play them. There are only 3 spots. There are 4 teams within a game. There are 4 more within 2 games. Some of them we play. Some of them have a better conference record. We have to win the conference games if we don't win the division.
Oh yea you didn’t say 3 are likely to make it from the north explicitly but you listed a bunch of wildcard competitors to highlight the position were in. There really are not that many for the reason that 3 are in the same division is what I was saying. They have to beat eachother up which hurts conference record and overall record. And if one catches fire and clears the other ones out that’s not exactly bad for us either as it’s 2 less teams we’d be competing for a wildcard with.
the teams we have lost to so far aren’t really serious wildcard threats which helps a ton. Jacksonville will win the south, pats won’t make it, jets likely won’t make it. If they’re in the mix, they have lost to NE also for divisional record purposes and I don’t see them beating Miami. If they do beat Miami, it helps our division standings
the other teams like cincy and lac we play head to head so conference records are not really that meaningful for us at all
we’re really not in a bad spot at all and the playoffs look very likely. There aren’t a whole lot of good afc teams this year
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9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
I think we would be lucky to. Think about our schedule and what teams have to beat us for us to not win our division. Some of them are the same teams fighting for a wc spot. Bengals, Chargers, even the Jets are a half game behind us right now lol. If they beat us then they have the head to head. Then the ones that we don't play, like Pitts and Browns currently have a better conference record. There are a lot of teams sitting within 1 game of us right now that also won't win their division.
Three of those teams you mentioned are in the same division and one of them has to lose every time they play eachother. 4 playoff teams coming out of the north is very very very very unlikely. It’s more than likely going to get whittled down to one wildcard team at best (or 0)
then you’ve got teams like the chargers who have as many or more issues than us. I’ll give cincy the benefit of the doubt making cincy/baltimore a wildcard team but who are the other two teams making it over us? Bills are probably 75%ish to make the playoffs right now and have a very good shot even if they don’t win the division.
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54 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:
Many of your aforementioned individuals do not watch the rest of the league with quite the same frequency that they do the Bills. Sure , some takes in here are measured and reasonable. Many others are over the top with negativity and expect only perfection. They put other teams and staffs on a pedestal and think they can do no wrong. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Regardless , my point stands. Most NFL observers do not view the Bills as having zero shot in this upcoming game. If you prefer the sentiment that says otherwise , great . Enjoy!
It seems like when someone is just analyzing the play of their own team, they are comparing to a hypothetically perfect team that can do no wrong and makes no mistakes which leads to a lot of pessimism because we are not even close to that level. When you benchmark teams against eachother, things start to normalize a bit because no team is perfect.
Cincy has had a ton of issues this season and their fans have likely been raising the same kinds of complaints over on their board as we are here. They have been one of the worst teams at running the football, the defense hasn’t been as good as last season, the offense is wildly inconsistent and rarely shows up for 60 minutes
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5 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:
So one thing about this though….a LOT of people in here watch every Bills game, every week, and they have been doing so for decades. And a LOT of the latter folks are very knowledgeable about what they are seeing. And other younger, less knowledgeable people who peruse this forum get to read the “takes” from said knowledgeable posters, so then they gain knowledge, and know what to look for in future games.
OTOH, we have unbiased NFL observers, or if you will, “experts”, (LOL) who DO NOT see every play from every game that the Bills play in. Most of them think McClappy is a great coach….”Look at his record!” And some of these so called experts are younger than the skin tags in my armpits.
Bottom line, I’ll take the sentiment in here over those experts all day, every day. 😉
I don’t think the general sentiments about the bills struggles is wrong…what’s makin this game closer than most on here expect for me is the successes of Cincinnati are being blown massively out of proportion and I’m less high on them than others.
Pretty much any criticism you can raise of the bills would directly apply to cincy as well…these are two eerily similar teams that are very inconsistent. I would not be surprised by anything in this one
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47 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:
I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1
I wouldn’t do it…that’s too much money for two of the most inconsistent good teams in the league playing against eachother
If it were me I’d wait to let people overreacting to the niners game push the spread up and then take the bills with the points.. the most likely outcome I have is bills come up just short in a shootout if you’re gonna bet bengals I’d do it right now though lol
2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
Idk I don’t see the mvp bets showing up on any of the apps and when I Google it I’ll find a link to place an mvp bet through DraftKings or whatnot and the link will just take me to the football Home Screen
maybe I can drive to CT and try it 😂