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CorkScrewHill

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Posts posted by CorkScrewHill

  1. I like where this is going ...but with a few changes. 1) Why be satisfied with bringing on one of them. Go all out and get both Brees and Brady. Sign them each to minimum veteran prove it deals because they are not going to get $25 - $30 million from another team and I think both would jump at the chance to  fight it out to be a backup  in Buffalo. They would not want us to go for max deals as they would want us to spend the $25 million or so on our up and coming players. Now is when this gets controversial  so hear me out (i.e. the thing people say when they are going to spout nonsense) Brees and Brady are 2 and 3 on  the depth chart because we  finally undo the mistake of 2018 and trade a first rounder for Josh "rosen from the ashes" Rosen. You may say why a first when he can be had for a sixth and a bag of stale Cheetos. First 1) Stale Cheetos are delicious (open the bag and let them sit for a few days  .. perfection) 2) We want to trigger to Josh that we are sorry for our previous transgression and want to make it up to the most pocket ready QB in the 2018 draft. We want to reward Josh Allen for his potential so after we cut him we add him to the Practice Squad (there is no way he doesn't clear waivers as everyone has seen that he has no ability to lead a team). Once these moves are made I would immediately buy 2021 - 2030 Super Bowl tickets as you know we would be in it 80% of the time.

    • Haha (+1) 1
  2. 3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


    Exactly. If people knew the work that these Quality Control Assistants do to watch plays 5, 6, 7 times in a row from each of 3 different views just to get a feel for one player’s assignment on a given play, they’d realize that the only value that PFF offers is in their data acquisition. Snap counts, formations, etc. That’s the value.

    Don't forget the pretty graphics, the data must be right because the presentation is so nicely done!

     

    Kudos to them for making a business by spouting opinion but selling it as facts ...

  3. So ZERO Bills are in the top 101 .. only other teams with that honor are Lions, Dolphins, and Giants. There is something different about those teams .. can't put my finger on it. So the Bills win 10 games with clearly a crap team .. how do they explain that?

     

    They are useless .. though they make nice graphics .. very pretty which is what I look for in a football site.

    • Like (+1) 2
  4. Unlike many I do not hate Daboll, but he is definitely focused on becoming a head man. Michigan St has been turned down by a lot of coaches at this point and Daboll did serve as a Graduate Assistant for them back in the 90s (colleges seem to care about that sort of thing) and has good college coaching experience.  While I do not hate him I would be mildly happy to see if the Bills could get a more innovative offensive mind to counter act McDermott (who I am very high on but he needs to be saved from her conservatism some times).

     

    Interested in other thoughts .. though if this is considered a lame topic I am fine with it being closed :)

  5. Here is the link to the ProFootballTalk summary: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/10/josh-allen-on-10-win-season-good-part-is-bills-have-room-to-improve/

    This page also has Chris Simms talking about what needs to chnage for the Bills in 2020.

     

    Here is the direct link to the Podcast with the start and end time for the interview  https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9tY3NvcmxleXMuYmFyc3Rvb2xzcG9ydHMuY29tL2ZlZWQvcGFyZG9uLW15LXRha2U&episode=MDI0MTU4N2MtNGIwZC00YjQ5LTk5OGItOTBkZDgwNzMwZjQ2&hl=en&ved=2ahUKEwiTmMbevMfnAhWswVkKHeKFDTwQieUEegQIARAE&ep=6

     

    • Like (+1) 2
    • Awesome! (+1) 1
  6. 25 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:


    No one votes on who won a horse race.

     

    Bookies lay odds to even out the money and their exposure.  They take the vig. 
     

    Goofy side bets like “MVP” don’t matter to them.  It’s a suckers bet so they try to maximize the sucker action.

     

    look, after reading that some oddsmaker has Josh at “only” 40:1 and grouped with others you would traditionally consider better prompted you to say “these professional assessors really think Allen has a shot at MVP!”.  If you were inclined to bet,  you would say “I like those odds!”.

     

    so...it worked

    a) I never stated I thought they were good odds. I do not think he is likely to be MVP so I wouldn't bet, even if I was a bettor, at those numbers. b) I clearly stated I think he still needs to prove he can be in that discussion. I would have said the same thing about Baker, Mitch, Sam, and Lamar last year. Baker, Mitch, and Sam didn't, Lamar did.

     

    I think it is interesting they have him in the mix instead of others, you don't congratulations.

  7. 16 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

     

     

    You answered this question by starting this thread.  Like you, many will think this 40:1 grouping was based on some analysis by bookmakers on Allen's "progress"...or something...and more likely to lay a bet than if they made him seem completely impossible at, say, 300:1, in which case few of any fans would bother to bite.  They figure they will get more action if they make it seem more likely he could win.  It's completely logical.

     

    The bookies know you.....of course they are targeting fans.

    I don’t gamble .. so not targeting me. My point is why would they target specifically Bills fans. Why is Garapolo at worse odds. Are the 49er fans a less lucrative market? Think horse racing, they increase the odds on the horses that aren’t expected to do well to get people to bet on them. Sometimes there may be a horse that is a little overrated and they reduce the odds but in general the better horse have the shortest odds. In general I am of the belief that Josh Allen was a raw prospect that is improving but has not proven that he is the franchise guy. I think it is interesting that he has strong odds to be MVP but as stated Baker and Mitch had good odds last year. Those that have anointed him the franchise QB  we have been waiting for are in my mind premature as are the group that looks to bash and want to move on. However, I am more hopeful than 2 years ago.

    • Like (+1) 1
  8. 29 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

     

     

    Huh?? 

     

    It's an oddsmaker laying odds.  They put Allen up there because they saw it as an easy way to separate Bills fans from their money.

    Right .. because of all the gullible fan bases they are like hey let’s target the Bills fans .. that is where all the money is. Actually if he really has no chance to win they would logically make the odds BIGGER to get even the reluctant foolish Bills fans to go in on the bet. Logic of course is optional in these kinds of posts. 

  9. 13 hours ago, GreggTX said:

    Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

    Truth ... hmm the chance of a person being struck one time this year by lightening is 1 in 700,000 .. 10 Sunday’s in a row would be a number that would have so many zeros you would get bored before reading the end of it. Josh Allen is 1 of 32 WBs in the NFL on a team that is good enough to make the playoffs .. I think you are a) either still bitter they didn’t take “your” guy or b) you are very, very bad at math.  He has a long way to go but has a come long way. You complain about those that are homers ... most of us “homers” are not indicating he has arrived .. we are saying he is clearly getting better, his team loves him and follows him, and we could certainly do worse (and have for the better part of two decades) even if this is his peak .. which few think it is. I am not flaming you .. just flaming your defeatist it’s over he cannot improve Mindset.

  10. 10 hours ago, GreggTX said:

    Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

    Blind homerism .. sheesh back at you with your blind hate. Did I say I would take the bet .. no .. but he is clearly better than you GM give him credit since sports books are giving him fairly decent odds. We were really one play from winning that playoff game .. San Fran was one big play from sealing it against KC ... good not great QBs can win with this Bills team and that is what Josh is. But as stated he was raw..if he doesn’t keep progressing .. you would have a point ... as of now your point just appears to be an ax to grind. Maybe the Bills could pick up the beloved Rosen for a 6th round pick to backup Josh and make all of you never Joshers happy!

    • Like (+1) 1
  11. I find it interesting that for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about Josh Allen, going into his 3rd year the people paid to be right on such things have Josh tied for the 12th overall best QB odds of being the MVP and tied for 14th best overall odds for the award. certainly he can regress or even not grow and the luster will fade (e.g., Baker and Mitch Trubisky had good odds last year). But it does indicate that for those that are paid to look at trends the trends favor continued growth which could take him to the MVP. Considering he was drafted as the raw prospect who needed time to grow .. it is encouraging .. unless you are a negative person in which case you will focus on Mitch Trubisky and be sad for the next 7 months.

     

    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-mvp-odds-patrick-mahomes-leads-the-field-but-lamar-jackson-isnt-far-behind/

    • Like (+1) 4
  12. this is from a poster called skarekrow over on BuffaloRumblings but I thought it was very well done. he/she estimated before the season where Josh would likely end up based on previous QBs from year 1 to year 2 and then showed the actuals.

     

    https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/7/21046646/how-big-of-a-leap-did-josh-allen-take-in-2019-buffalo-quarterback

    • Like (+1) 2
  13. 2 hours ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

    Inclined to think "Over"
    Need to consider what Beane can add thru the Draft and FA.
    Also need to consider what we could lose: DT's Lotulelei & Phillips, DE's Lorax & Shaq (is Trent's contract up?), DB Johnson, Gore . . . defense could be weaker.

    I can see why the books say 8.5 with the tougher schedule and the possibility the defense gets weaker.  The wild card is Beane and what he can do to add to the roster and what the 1st & 2nd year players do to add to the team in their 2nd & 3rd years respectively.

    Not the end all beat all, but WalterFootball is a pretty well respected group and they have the Bills free agents as middle of the road (they are not overly impressed by Phillips) so even with losing some of those guys .. the Free agents should more than compensate and if we can bring back some of our own at reasonable rates .. all the better.

    https://walterfootball.com/freeagents.php

     

    It will come down to how much more improvement Josh makes as the schedule is a little tougher (but those things change year to year), and we should expect a more normal injury impact than this year (we were very lightly hit by injuries)

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