Hermes
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Posts posted by Hermes
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3 hours ago, 90sBills said:
Oh man I’ve heard it all now. They’re just looking at these games as practices. LolLike Kyle Brandt said on GMFB this morning ‘Bills aren’t the Chiefs’. They’re not good enough to be lackadaisical and expect to win.
Maybe in the minds of some of the players, yes. Could be what the meetings about? Idk, never know. You're talking about guys with huge egos who've been playing at one of the highest levels in the sport. I'm sure Mac Jones really scared them into being the most focused they could be for that game.
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29 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:
This is quite possibly the most moronic, head-in-the-sand, ill-conceived post of the year.
OP, you are the Neville Chamberlain of football strategists.
I don't know who that is so I'll take it as a compliment.
I guess I should assume all of the players in the Bills locker room are as mentally and emotionally week as countless posters on the board (including you?). Any thought to the contrary are 'moronic and ill-conceived'
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22 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:
Just when I thought ideas couldn't get any dumber, we got this guy saying the Bills don't care. You've outdone yourself
All they care about is endorsements obviously 🙄
I'm talking about the big picture.
If the Bills win the Superbowl this year who in God's name (besides some ingrates on this board,) will care about a week 7 loss to the Pats.
Get over the doom and gloom narrative that the team sucks if they don't blow every team out and win 50-0. Sure they might have some issues. Its week 7! They're currently in a playoff position and there's still 10 games for them to play.
Yeah they lost to the Pats and of course they care in this moment. But do you think for one second the Bills players care enough that they're going to throw in the towel after a couple bad weeks.
Do they care so much that they lost to the Pats they're gonna mope all season long and Josh Allen and Co. are already looking forward to the draft?
You know I actually think that's what the players meeting was about. If they can suck enough to get Marvin Harrison Jr next year. That's why Von called it cause it's in his GM dna. They need a WR 2 to compete so this whole season is lost. The defense let Mac Jones work down the field for the win in week 7. I guess the season is over. We should all just call it as fans and boycott the season and root for a top pick in the draft
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12 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:
Lots of excuses/explanations in this thread so far. And most of them valid in a vacuum. Strains credulity as they stack up, though innit?
One thing working in our favor, is that the year everyone feels the Bills should have won the whole thing, 2021, they were at one point 7-4, coming off a THUMPING at home to the Colts. They were then 7-5, after losing to the Patriots. They were then even 7-6, after losing to the Bucs in overtime.
The first half of that Bucs game felt BAD. Like the Bills had been exposed as a bad team. Like they weren't going to win many more games at all. And then, even in a heartbreaking overtime loss, there was sudden hope. There was that signature turnaound. McD's teams have shown at least one multiple-game swoon in almost every season, to my recollection.
We can't rule out such growth this season. Can't rule it out really ANY season with Allen as our QB (and Diggs as his #1 target). History teaches us as much.
That's the thing. The Bills have been here before, for years, and they know as long as they make the dance they can go all the way. Who cares how they get there, as long as they do.
In a vacuum anything can look as good or bad as you want to make it out to look, but at the end of the day you have to look at everything else going on.
Sure, I'd love it if the Bills blew every team out en route to a superbowl win. How many teams have done that? How many teams have been THE team all season long and then smash the superbowl? It's just not a realistic proposition. At the end of the day the team that wins is typically the team that's hot at the right time. We can all B word and complain about how bad they look and how they're going nowhere or we can enjoy the ride and see how things play out. As they say hope springs eternal, and I'm just here for the ride
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2 minutes ago, BillsFooteball said:
Appreciate the positive post but I’m not seeing it. The defense is in shambles and letting the bottom offenses in league go up and down the field on them. The schedule ahead is rough with little room for error. Great teams find ways to win. Chiefs and eagles both had some showings but look at records
The defense is in a transition period from losing Milano, White, and Jones, while missing Oliver this past game. There's definitely cause for concern regarding the viability of a top notch defense when when a quarter of starters are injured but I'm willing to see how the season plays out. No one knows what might happen the rest of the season, maybe the Bills win out, maybe they lose out. That's why you play the games. To say they're a trash team because they've had a rough start is asinine when we've literally watched the Patriots do it for 20 years. Obviously not every year but some years. It's not about how you start, it's how you finish
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6 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:
The Bills lost to the Pats. I repeat, the Bills lost to a joke of a team, the New England Patriots.
This isn’t some situation where the Bills are working through things, learning as they go. This team has horrendous coaching and the window to win with McD is closed. It’s over…
A team that knows the Bills more intimately than 28 other team in the league and is literally fighting to stay relevant. The coach of that team has how many superbowl rings and playoff experience? It's so easy to brush of as a casual fan, but to think Belichek isn't using this win to tell his team the season isn't lost is a joke. He's trying to rally the troops and save his legacy, and what a way to do it..
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At this point in the Bills "window" they already know what the score is.... winning a superbowl or bust.
Now, I know a division game should probably mean something..., but at the end of the day the Patriots are not a threat to the Bills playoffs chances, in the least. The team knows this (unfortunately) and doesn't view these weaker teams as threats, either. Which has led to the lackluster performances we've grown so (dis/un?)fond of, the past 2-3 years.
The issue is that the Bills aren't some up-and-coming team that other teams are caught offguard by. They have been a juggernaut for the past 4-5 seasons, regularly taking the lunch money of the weaker teams, especially those in their division.. At this point, every team that the Bills play against look at this roster as a litmus test, of sorts, to see where they rank in the NFL hierarchy. While the Bills, are trying to do what they can to play their best football in the late season and playoffs.
It's a stark difference from the games games they played against the Patriots as "our superbowl" from the drought era. And that's the learning curve that the team has fallen behind on. For a lot of the teams in the league it's obvious that the Bills are their superbowl. They want to say "Yeah we might have finished 2-15, but one of those wins was against the Bills!" The other team's players get extra jazzed up to make a play against Allen (or Diggs, et al). It's easier to do that, than say, Allen or Diggs getting up to make a play on some JAGs. They'd rather make plays against the top teams and top players (it just means more).
What we are watching is a team that is trying to work through the kinks early in the season rather than later and I'm all for it. I'd rather see them lose on the late TD to the Pats instead of the Chiefs. Let them work things out now and head into the bye at 7-5 or 6-6 (or better). I'm sure it wouldn't surprise anyone to see them finish 12-5 or 11-6 in either scenario. Unless you have no faith of course. But I digress.
What I've seen from this team is a concerted effort to win games in a variety of ways. To be able to go on long clock draining drives (even, at times, to the detriment of the offense) and control the game a different way. Sure, the offense could go no huddle and score almost at will, but at the end of the day how sustainable is that really. I'm sure teams will figure it out or the offense will burn itself out eventually. Why not save the squeeze for crunch time?
When it comes to the defense, it has almost certainly been as disappointing as the offense as of late. (Although they get a minor pass with the injury situation). But, It's frustrating to see all of the blitzes and manufactured pressures not hitting home and then Mac and cheese making the defense look like swiss. Hopefully this is less of a trend and more of an aberration for the rest of the season. The true test for the defense is coming up soon and I'm excited to see how they respond. If they're still sucking hopefully the offense can regroup and pave the way for more wins.
It's almost time to turn on the gas and see what teams can handle the pressure. I know the Bills can, and hopefully will, ramp up the intensity when it comes down to it, and I, for one, can't wait for these late season games to separate the cream from the crop. I know things seem dire but of all the teams the Bills are behind in the standings only the Chiefs have a true game up on them. On top of the fact that the Bills themselves are still in position to make the playoffs if the season ended today. I like those odds. Go Bills!
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6 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:
Yeah - part of why I say Beane can't evaluate WR talent is because he doesn't even try to land great wide receivers.
In his six drafts as the Bills GM, the highest draft pick Beane has used on a wide receiver is a 4th rounder, which is absurd:
2018
Ray-Ray McCloud (6th)
Austin Proehl (7th)2019
None
2020
Gabe Davis (4th)
Isaiah Hodgins (6th)2021
Marquez Stevenson (6th)
2022
Khalil Shakir (5th)
2023
Justin Shorter (5th)
So I say he can't evaluate WR talent because year in and year out I see wide receivers that would be very valuable to the Bills drafted by other teams and Beane constantly lets them pass by.
Notable wide receivers passed on by Beane in the draft (chosen 20 picks or less after the Bills draft pick - (round - position and player chosen instead)):
2018
DJ Moore (1st - LB Edmunds)
Calvin Ridley (1st - LB Edmunds)
Antonio Callaway (3rd - DT Phillips)
2019
Marquise Brown (1st - DT Oliver)
AJ Brown (2nd - OL Ford)
Mecole Hardman (2nd - OL Ford)
*DK Metcalf (2nd - OL Ford)
Terry McLaurin (3rd - RB Singletary)
Hunter Renfrow (5th - LB Joseph)
2020
Van Jefferson (2nd - DE Epenesa)
Devin Duvernay (3rd - RB Moss)
Darnell Mooney (5th - QB Fromm)
KJ Osborn (5th - QB Fromm)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (5th - QB Fromm)
Quez Watkins (6th - K Bass)
Jauan Jennings (6th - WR Hodgins)
2021
Elijah Moore (1st - DE Rousseau)
Rondale Moore (1st - DE Rousseau)
Josh Palmer (2nd - DE Basham)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (3rd - OL Brown)
2022
Christian Watson (1st - CB Elam)
Wan'Dale Robinson (1st - CB Elam)
David Bell (3rd - LB Bernard)
2023
Jonathan Mingo (1st - TE Kincaid)
Marvin Mims (2nd - OL Torrence)
Tank Dell (2nd - OL Torrence)
Jalin Hyatt (2nd - OL Torrence)
Cedric Tillman (2nd - OL Torrence)
Josh Downs (2nd - OL Torrence)
Michael Wilson (3rd - LB Williams)
Tre Tucker (3rd - LB Williams)
*chosen 26 picks after Ford
Honestly, that list is generally underwhelming. Out of the 25 or so WRs only a handful, or so, of them would really help out the team now. On top of the fact that not only did Beane pass on these guys but so did (in most cases) every other GM. You're also looking at things in vacuum and not the overall team composition and needs at the time of the drafts. It's easy to look back and say the Bills or any other team should have drafted Brady, Brees, or Wilson (RIP). The hard part is deciding in the moment who will help your team now and in the future
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Dammit Ela.... I mean Benford
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20 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:
I am in the minority, I think the money spent on Von could have been spent more wisely. The knee injury only made things worse.
The fact that you can own, makes it better. We'll see very soon how much he impacts a defense that's already playing lights. Imo it can't hurt to have a HOF player joining the fold
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3 hours ago, Simon said:
LBs are not going to be looking outside at Stefon Diggs at the snap.
And having a corner yell something at them is not going to work.
Seriously. Everything happens so fast there's no chance that CB has a prayer making a play
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4 hours ago, JÂy RÛßeÒ said:
Von was asked about Terrell's development, and his reply was (and I'm paraphrasing here)
"He's a really intelligent person. And you don't see that that much in people from Baylor"
🤣I'll post a link when one becomes available
I wonder what Maddy glab had to say 🤔
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Three runs to Cook from the 12 for a TD. Absolutely huge.
On what was essentially the same play no less
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1 minute ago, Solomon Grundy said:
Can we see some Harris or Murray this series
No
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16 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:
Kinda looked like the ball was intended for Diggs but Knox went up for it to try and make a play
I've been thinking that same thing myself
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16 hours ago, NewEra said:
You mean KINGcaid?
When he has an all-time great rookie season, we can call him that.
The King of Tight Ends, Dalton 'King' Caid
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4 hours ago, SCBills said:
The “oh, sorry” at the end… ha
My favorite part is that Josh could care less about the questions and just wants to get back in the scrap.
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1 hour ago, Einstein said:
Thus why I said (in my first response to you) that my opinion on Anarumo is not based on statistics, but my gut feeling watching him.
Fair enough. I'll have to pay more attention to the Bengals this year (gross) to see if he's worth the hype.
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1 hour ago, Einstein said:
Mahomes vs playoff teams without Anuromo: 33.1ppg
Mahomes vs playoff teams WITH Anuromo: 23.5ppg
That is a MASSIVE difference.
Visit the Chiefs forum and you will see a fan base that shudders at the mention of Anuromo’s name. They fear him like we feared Belichick for 2 decades.
Right, it is a massive difference.
On an incredibly limited sample size of 2(!) games, one of which Mahomes was severely impacted by an ankle injury. If you're looking to say that your analysis on coaches winning a superbowl is accurate because of your robust historical dataset, then what does that say about this the situation we have here.
I'm not even going to entertain the thought of going on the Chiefs board for countless reasons, but in this instance, fan sentiment means absolutely nothing. To say that this 2 game sample size is comparable to the 40 games played between the Bills and Belichek is laughable.
Again, we'll have to see how both defenses play throughout the season and postseason to determine if he would even be an upgrade defensively like you've mentioned. This will be McDermott's first season calling plays so any comparison to previous seasons would be against Frazier.
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4 minutes ago, Einstein said:
My desire (with no calculation provided just gut feeling) is Lou Anorumo.
1) I believe it helps the Bills. Anorumo has stopped the Chiefs offense twice in the playoffs. Something we have never done.
2) It hurts the Chiefs.
3) It hurts the Bengals (they lose their best coordinator).
It is a win/win/win.
Ps, I believe the percentage to be higher than 1% once the replacements get added back in and you look at it on a year by year basis.
If his defense performs better than McDermott's this year, particularly in the playoffs, then I can see you point about it helping the Bills. Not to say anything about the leadership qualities or intangibles of either man.
How much it does it really hurt the Chiefs though? Giving up 24 points isn't great (better than the Bills D did in the 13 seconds game, and the Chiefs ppg ave of 28.2 that year) and considering Mahomes was playing on a bum ankle and still drove down to win the game against them last year I wouldn't necessarily say they were stopping them. Add in the fact that he is a coordinator for a team that isn't named the Chiefs, I just can't see how it hurts them. If anything wouldn't it make the Bengals easier for the Chiefs to beat because therefore helping them instead?
It's interesting that your choice would be a DC when the current NFL trend is to hire the hot OC's for head coach. The last 4 superbowls featured exclusively former OC's and the last former DC to win is Belichek (with Brady)
I don't claim to know much, especially regarding NFL/college coaches, but it makes sense to me that an up and coming OC would be a better choice.
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@Einstein assuming all of your calculations are indeed accurate and there's less than a 1% chance the Bills win it all with him at the helm, who would you have the Bills replace McDermott with?
Does this new coach have a statistically significant , >1% chance of winning the superbowl? Would you be able to provide a historical analyais for your candidate elaborating on what makes him have greater odds than McDermott?
I'm genuinely curious since you've clearly dedicated a substantial amount of time to the subject matter and the data you present isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for the extention the Bills just doled out.
In my opinion, going through all of the effort that you have to discredit the Bills HC is an exercise in futility without providing alternatives to the current state of the Bills organization.
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On 6/19/2023 at 7:44 AM, Chaos said:
In reality it means t the five games Edmunds missed since 2019 are not enough for a meaningful statistical comparsion.
The issue is that if he did have a statistically significant number of games to compare then he would be considered injury prone.
There's also loads of other contributing factors that would impact the data (i.e. what/if any other defensive starters also missed time, the strength of the offenses played during those games, how weather may have factored into games, etc.) It's just too hard to accurately quantify an individual players contribution to overall team performance.
I look at it as a a big hit to the Bills defense but McDermott will change things up to scheme around losing Edmunds
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On 6/15/2023 at 7:52 PM, Beck Water said:
There's friction when there are tough conversations and people say things that are hard to hear. Then maybe you have some hard to hear stuff you want to say in return.
You process them, you speak in your turn, you calm down, the people you're talking to process and calm down, you all move on. That's what being a professional means.
The key point is to break off talks before you or someone else speaks what I call "bridge burning words".
Ever hear Allen talk about his contract negotiations, I think it was with Kyle Brandt or maybe Pat McAfee? When asked how they went, he said (sarcastically) "Oh, Super Smooth. Nobody sat in a room and got upset. But it's done now and I'm looking forward to the season." It was clear there was friction over some issue, but also clear it got worked out.
Honestly, my wife and I occasionally have friction about different issues and at times (I specifically) need space. It's a fact of human nature that you're not always going to see eye to eye with someone else, especially when there's change involved, and people just process things differently.
At this point it seems more like something to fill the airwaves than anything remotely substantial. The people who are concerned about it are the same people who think the Bills are gonna fall to the bottom of the AFCE.
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1 hour ago, gobills404 said:
The Bills have allowed 19.5 ppg and 306 ypg since 2018. During that same time they allowed 25.4 ppg and 346 ypg in games that Edmunds missed. The defense has been objectively much worse without Edmunds since he was drafted. Like it’s not even up for debate.
That's actually a pretty impressive statistical drop-off showing how much Edmunds does impact the defense. It will be interesting to see how the defense responds to his absence. A TD and 40 ypg is nothing to scoff at
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Why the Bills don't care and neither should you
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I honestly considered looking it up but I didn't want @BillnutinHouston to think I cared enough for that. Contextually it's actually pretty hilarious..