Mikie2times

Lesser of two evils

Thanks for the link

I'm going to be annoying now but it needs to be said. Vegas is not saying that simply by having the two teams favored in the spread. Individually the two teams are favored, but collectively it is about 50%. In order to find the collective odds Vegas has of both those teams winning you must look at the money line. For those unfamiliar with the money line it simply shows how much you need to bet in order to win 100$. The outcome is a win/loss proposition and doesn't involve any spread. The money line on the two games is Denver -460 or betting 460$ to win 100$ or Jets -165 or betting 165$ to win 100$ In order to find the Vegas odds on both these events occurring you must convert these money lines into decimals and multiply the decimals together. You convert to decimals using the European betting decimal format. Denver's Game scores a 1.22 and the Jets game scores a 1.63. Multiply together and you get 1.988. In other words if you bet 100$ on a 2 team parlay involving Denver and the Jets you win 100$*1.988 or 198$. So if you wanted to put down a 2 team parlay on the money line for the Jets and Broncos you would get almost 2 to 1 odds. In other words Vegas thinks the odds of both Jets and Broncos winning are the same as beating the spread in any individual bet, about 50-50.

I'm not a 100% either way, but if I had the choice of a uninspired Colts team or sub .500 team to play Denver I would rather it be the Colts. Denver will be rocking, and the Broncos should be playing with a lot of fire. In my mind a sub .500 team would not have the talent/intensity to win under those conditions. Now the Colts won't have much intensity of their own and for that reason Denver is a huge favorite. What separates it all and gives the Colts a shot is the huge amount of talent on their team. With the exception of a couple of teams in week 17 (Buffalo being one) Denver has more at stake then any of the other teams. They also have a home game which will increase the motivation. While few teams can match that motivation a couple can neutralize it with talent, the Colts being one of them. Our best shot in the Denver game is that the Colt talent neutralizes the Broncos intensity/crowd by having a big first half. Big plays can do this and the Colts usually get plenty of them.

I hate the way some opposing fans are using the Bills schedule to downplay their run. You could almost take half the playoff teams and do the same thing with their schedule. They’re a lot of weak teams this year and a lot of dominant teams, as a result the big boys have knocked of the little guys almost every time. What you have left is the little guys fighting for the scraps amongst each other, and many of the playoff teams or teams in contention simply beating up the little guys. Just take a look at some of these teams and their schedules Colts If you want to call wins over Green Bay, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Baltimore quality wins then I would also think the Bills wins over Jets, Seattle, Rams, and Cincinnati meet that criteria. The only game the Colts have over the Bills is the Charger win and that took place in the closing seconds. Chargers The Chargers good wins have come against powerhouses like Jacksonville, Carolina (during losing streak), Kansas City, and Denver. Again the Bills quality wins more then match up against the Chargers. Jets Don’t need to elaborate on this one. Denver The Denver quality wins include Kansas City, Panthers (during losing streak), and San Diego. Again a our wins look good against those teams. Bottom line is the only teams that can make a claim to having more quality wins then Buffalo is Pittsburgh and New England. So the next time opposing fans give you that BS line that we haven't beaten anybody simply ask them to share all their teams stellar victories. A :I starred in Brokeback Mountain: might also be warranted.

I agree that it should be a lock, not a easy game but we really should win this game. With everything we have on the line the Ralph will be as loud as it has been in 5 years easy. Besides if we do lose I wont have that bitter "we should have made it" taste in my mouth. That’s why I suggested this bet, if nothing else to just offset that horrible feeling. If we lose then we don’t deserve the playoffs and not making it in will be much easier to swallow.

Thats why I said if you believe we take care of our end. I really think we win, in fact I'm about 80% that we do. So if your with me then its a good play. But like you said it is possible we lose, and yes it would suck double to lose money and the playoffs in the same day.

I could give two ***** about winning money this weekend. A couple hundred bucks or the Bills in the playoffs? I would take the Bills in a second. That said this weekend does bring up a unique betting situation for Bills fans. While the playoffs would be the best situation having a little extra coin may help the healing process if things don't go our way. If you believe we take care of our end then this is the bet you should take. Bills, Jets, and Broncos in a 3 team parlay against the money line. My bookie doesn't have the money line up yet but when it's all said and done you should get 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 odds for that bet. That way if we win and the other teams also win at least you can make a couple hundred bucks. If we win and one of the other teams lose then who cares? Bills will be in the playoffs.

He could still play tackle if this was the 60's

I will drink a can of Pimp Juice (Nellys energy drink) later in the week.

agree

They also happened before 1999. *Edit: Saw your post so scratch that I agree that this has been the best year to be a Bills fan since 99'. In fact I actually enjoyed this years team to the 99 squad, this comeback really is incredible. It's not that often we as fans can conjure up these ridiculous scenarios and have them possibly come true.

Bills and Broncos. Bills as the 6 seed at the RCA dome for wild card week.

With a win next week the odds are in our favor for a playoff birth. I have the games next week rated like this. Jets win- 65% Could be more or less depending on Bulgers health. Remember the Rams actually resemble a team in the dome. Broncos win- 60% Again could be more or less depending on whether the Colts starters play or not. I also wouldn't be fooled by the win in Tennessee as the Titans have lost 5 straight. Individually the odds are decent but collectively they get much better. If you agree with the percentages I gave each game the odds of both teams winning next week are only 39%. So if we win next week the probability of one of those teams losing is pretty high.

Just watched it tonight, classic flick. I even bought it as a gift for my mom this year

porn

Yup....Thats what is really pissing me off

All you need to know is if the Jets get beat by the Patriots and Rams and we win out we own the tiebreaker. This is due to the common game tiebreaker which is the 3rd step used to separate teams within the division.

I just made a post about this with my own calculations. Here is a simple way to figure out the odds of those teams winning out. Take your odds for each game. For example in my post I have the Jaguars at 6/10 vs Houston. In other words for every 10 games they play against Houston in Jacksonville they will win 6 of them. Then you take the odds of your second game, in Jacksonville's case I have them at 8/10 vs Oakland. Turn those fractions into percentages and multiply them together. So its . 60*.80= 48%. So within my estimates the Jaguars have a 48% chance at winning out.

Willis and his knee, Jaguars/Ravens/Broncos/Jets loss come to mind. But I agree, we need somebody to step up. Not like we have a lot to work with though.

I didn't make a mistake. My prediction was based on each team and their percentages of winning out or losing out (Jets). I did not attempt to create a collective probability of the Bills chances. Rather, I created a individual probability's for each teams chances, ranked them in order, and assumed the Bills to win out. The reason I assumed the Bills to win out is because they must do so for any of this to be relevant.

Here are some probability's surrounding our playoff chances in the next two weeks. Each game is rated based on my prediction out of a 10 game series. For example next week I predict the Bills at 9/10. Meaning if they played San Fransisco 10 times they would win 9 of them. Probability of the Jaguars winning both games is 6/10 vs Houston = They lost the first game to Houston 8/10 vs Oakland= Oakland coming on but Jaguars are still superior Total likelihood of the Jaguars winning both= 48% Probability of the Ravens winning both games 4/10 vs Pittsburgh= The Steelers can be beat but they should have the edge at Heinz 8/10 vs Miami= Miami is coming on but the Raves are still superior Total likelihood of the Ravens winning both= 32% Probability of the Broncos winning both games 5/10= Titans can move the ball 4/10= Would be much worse for Denver if the Colts play their starters Total likelihood of the Broncos winning both= 20% Probability of the Jets losing twice. Note that my fractions represent the odds of the Jets losing the game. For example next week I predict the Jets at 7/10. Meaning if they played New England 10 times at the Giants stadium they would get beat 7 times. 7/10 vs New England= Jets are good at Giants stadium but the Patriots are top 1 or 2 in the league right now. 4/10 vs Rams= The Rams are playing some horrible football now but Bulger should be back for this game. Historically the Rams are a pretty decent home team. Total likelihood the Jets get beat twice= 28% Assuming Buffalo wins out my math puts them as the second seed in the playoffs. If you agree with my predictions the order would be as follows. Wild Card 1 Jets Wild Card 2 Bills Jaguars Ravens Broncos

King Takeo

Some would argue you suck as a poster.....just kidding . MM is the man, if you missed it over the last few weeks you deserve to be put in a home.

Hold me