Backintheday544
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Posts posted by Backintheday544
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13 minutes ago, Gary M said:
Why didn't Obama do all that?
Obama created 11.6 million jobs: https://www.factcheck.org/2017/09/obamas-final-numbers/
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1 minute ago, westside2 said:
Hoax
Goldman Sachs also says so:
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Per Moody's, economy looks better under Biden: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/09/25/biden-democratic-sweep-would-be-best-outcome-for-the-economy-moodys-says/
A Democratic sweep that puts Joe Biden in the White House and the party back in the Senate majority would produce 7.4 million more jobs and a faster economic recovery than if President Trump retains power.
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4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:
No. That's not how that works. That makes no sense.
They are "Independent." Who they voted for does not factor in that would mean there are zero independents.
Your numbers look at the US population as whole.
Exit polls look at who actually votes. Plus there is probably an issue with exit polls questioning party and people mistakenly saying who they voted for.
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2 minutes ago, TBBills said:
Were they important last election?
No
Yea. Trump did a bunch of last minute campaigning in places like Wisconsin due to polls. Also again on the spending, you didn't have Trump spending billions on ads in CA and similar places due to polls.
And due to polls I made a nice chunk of cash on Trump +475.
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6 hours ago, TBBills said:
Why do people post polls when they don't matter?
Polls are very important.
For the race, polls help determine where to put campaign funds. Campaigns have a limited amount of money so they don't want to waste funds on races that aren't close. (Usually, we do have the Trump campaign running ads in DC).
For regular people, betting! As polls showed the race tightening closer to election day on 2016, I got Trump +475!!
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1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:
If all you're going to do is post garbage polls that might as well be copied and pasted from 2016 just don't bother.
Unless this is the poll's party breakdown (which is still oversampling Dems) don't bother (this may have been posted idk):
US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with Covid – EXCLUSIVE
The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent.
The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.
The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.
But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.
Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.
Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.
This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.
While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.
Which polls are over sampling Dems? What do you think the correct D/R/I breakdown is?
For reference, 2016 was 35/31/34 D/R/I.
The poll you quote is 37/35/28. Why would we see a 4 percent increase in Republicans as a percent of the electorate?
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1 hour ago, Reality Check said:
The polls nationally around the election were pretty accurate. The average polls had Clinton +3.3 where is finished +2.1.
At 2.1 points nationally, 538 would give Biden less than a 46 percent chance of winning the electoral college:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632
Don't forget there were wild swings in odds in 2016 that you don't get this year. In Late September it was close to 50/50 on 538.
The other thing to keep in mind is third party candidates in 2016 were around 5 percent of the vote or 6,000,000ish votes.
Compared to 2012, it's about 4,000,000 more. Now Republicans have been trying hard to get 3rd parties on the ballots but have not done well and lost several court battles. In most swing states if a small fraction of the extra 3rd party votes went Hilary, she's have carried those states, like Wisconsin.
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On 10/2/2020 at 5:28 PM, Big Blitz said:
Most accurate poll after Rasmussen in 2016
So basically Trump is tied which means electoral landslide:
Since you bring up Rasmussen, Rasmussen now has Presidential approval rating at 46 percent. It has seen a steady decline since the first debate.
Post Debate, 538 is now giving Biden an 81 percent chance of winning: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
For reference, the night of the election, Hilary was given a 71.4 percent chance: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
RCPs No Toss Up Map now has Biden winning 375-163: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
RCP is based on average polls. When looking at 2016, they were all within the margin for states that mattered excepted Iowa and Wisconsin, which you can see here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html
Senate No Toss Up Map has 51-49 Dems: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
However, there probably is not enough data to see if the news out of NC changes anything. I personally don't think it will. I think sex scandals are really a thing of the past in American politics, we elected a President that paid off a porn star about an affair. That didn't hurt his numbers at all.
House is already most likely safe Dem.
No interesting Governors races.
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5 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:
To be fair, a lot on the right thought women shouldn't be President due to mood swings and hormones. https://qz.com/783723/hillary-clinton-and-our-long-sexist-tradition-of-using-womens-bodies-to-disqualify-them-from-power/
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1 hour ago, SoTier said:
So Covid Donnie was cruising around the DC area in a motorcade this afternoon ... crusin' and playin' the radio with no particular place to go?
What rationale person here, infected with a deadly virus would tell someone please drive me around for a political stunt/photo shoot knowing you're risking the life of the person you are asking and their families?
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14 minutes ago, B-Man said:
Bull(y) believing another hoax.
How predictable.
There's nothing there showing its not him signing a blank piece of paper. It's just offering an explanation as to why the paper looks blank.
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39 minutes ago, Tiberius said:
President Donald Trump was seen in a photo taken at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center apparently signing a blank piece of paper with a marker, further undermining the credibility of the White House when it comes to the president's health.
The White House on Saturday night released pictures of the president working at the hospital, where he remained for a second night after he and First Lady Melania Trump both tested positive for the coronavirus.
Ivanka Trump, the president's daughter and a senior aide, shared one the pictures on her Twitter page, adding: "Nothing can stop him from working for the American people. RELENTLESS!"
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-walter-reed-photo-op-blank-paper-1536238
My guess is the Rudy G and the rest all have stock in that too
Trump did something similar when he first took over. He had a table spread with a bunch of folders full of paper. Turned out it was all just blank pages:
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12 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:
I can't stay locked upstairs in the White House.....but isn't he now just locked up in a hospital?
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24 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/president-trump-covid-19-positive-test-latest-news-2020-10-03/
Trump received supplemental oxygen before getting on Marine 1. I imagine this was to allow him to walk to the chopper on his own power.
Meadows' comment about problematic vitals -- together with no photos of Trump doing what he's supposed to be doing, "working out of an office at Walter Reed," suggests that this admission to the hospital -- and don't lie to us, White House, that's what it is -- is serious and not merely for observation.
I read to Trump isn't doing what he's supposed to be doing, working out....then laughed imagining Trump trying to work out.
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13 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:
...sad news for some of our illustrious PPP gang that ALREADY bought sympathy cards......
I think everyone on the left wants Trump to be fine. The idea of a President Pence is scarier.
A Trump admin kept things pretty incompetent to where no major damage is done that can't be undone. A competent person on the right is much more dangerous to the nation.
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3 minutes ago, TBBills said:
You do know he will have a full recovery just in time for the election right?
He's going to lose a lot of precious time already behind in the polls campaigning. It's a huge blow. His rallies were a huge reason he was able to get out the vote that he could in 16.
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13 minutes ago, shoshin said:
Please be a human being. PPP is bad enough on a normal day.
Our humanity is on display from ad TwoBillsDrive-ians, Buffalonians, and people. Can we not do better?. There’s a thread on here when RBG got sick a year ago that is worse than this thread (so far) so there’s no party ownership about who acts abhorrent. It’s on all of us.
Nope.It's a meme. It's funny because originally it was a taco salad that he was using to prove the hispanic community likes him.
Now instead of a taco salad, it's the coronavirus.
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This has been my favorite so far:
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44 minutes ago, GOBUFFALO716 said:
They lengths Trump will go to change the narrative. You put on quite a show.
If only you put this much effort in COVID earlier in the year none of us would be in this mess.
Your taxes were still released. More details on that front is promised.
The economy sucks.
COVID phase 2 is launching.
Your crime network is crumbling.
And your DNA rape test will still happen.
No sympathy
He should be able to give a DNA sample in the rape case while he is at a hospital.
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16 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:
I know, I know, he should be hidin' like Biden instead of running the country.
I just hope the rest of the tests on those who had close contact with Hope Hicks come back negative. So far, the Pences and Kushners have tested negative.
Biden is not hiding. He is keeping social distancing and raising funds through things like Zoom meetings. He doesn't want his voters to get together at rallies and contract the virus.
Trump did try hiding from the protest in DC when super late at night he went to "check" on the White House bunker.
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Cnn reporting Pence and mother have tested negative.
Ivanka and Jared too.
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3 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:
Nothing burger. POTUS and FLOTUS will be fine.
You can't really compare how the virus acts person to person but Boris Johnson who is younger than Trump went to the ICU. Figure they will have similar care and they seem similarly unhealthy.
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Last Man on Earth from a couple years ago predicting the Trump admin gets a virus:
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Reasons why I should vote for Biden.....
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
And that's a good reason why were voting zbiden and not Obama. They are different people. Bidens plan and a democratic blue wave is best for the economy based on both Moody's and Goldman's Sachs.