Backintheday544
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Posts posted by Backintheday544
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On 10/6/2020 at 11:46 PM, GETTOTHE50 said:
I read one poll (I think Rasmussen?) and it polled Dems, repubs, n non partisans equally. Biden was still the favorite by a good margin. I hope you’re right though. The polls were dead wrong last time so let’s pray that’s the case again.
***** Biden. ***** the Dems forever n ever
Polls were not dead wrong last time. At times Hilary had large leads because polls covered different dates. When you get to the polls around the election, they were not far off.
"Polling of the 2016 presidential general election is the trickiest case to evaluate. The average error was 4.8 percentage points — slightly higher than in 2000 (4.4 points) and considerably higher than in 2004 (3.2 points), 2008 (3.6 points) or 2012 (3.6 points)."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
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19 minutes ago, H2o said:
Thank you for the information my friend. A much appreciated reference and breakdown. There was a blue wave in the House, but the Republicans did manage to flip seats in the Senate. I believe that the House was more of the Dems focus in 2018 because they felt it was more vulnerable and did a lot more campaign work. We shall see in how it shakes out in 26 days.
Based on the 2018 senate seats that were open, the Dems always had a hard time picking up seats. For 2020, the map is much more favorable. The Dems will lose Alabama though.
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Your questions:
1. Where do you actually believe that Trump has lost the votes he had in 2016, an election where he won easily?
2. If the MSM was lying through their teeth in 2016 about Hillary/Kaine then what actually leads you to believe they are not doing the same now with Biden/Harris?
3. Do you honestly, I mean honestly, believe that the "silent majority" is for Biden/Harris?
1. He did not win easily. MI, WI and PA were all very close races. That's 46 electoral votes.
WI was 20,000 votes with over 106,000 going to a 3rd party.
MI was 11,000 votes with over 172,000 going to a 3rd party
Pa was 44,000 votes with over 146,000 going to a 3rd party.
So, it was far from an election that he won easily.
This time there is no strong 3rd party candidate that is getting strong support from the left like Jill Stein or Gary Johnson. If anything the libertarian Jo Jorgenson (?) is more likely to take right votes.
There's a reason Republican lawyers were trying to help Kanye West get on ballots in places like WI.
2. They were not lying through their teeth. They reported polls and the polls had leads for Trump. Polls fluctuated a ton during that election. Every couple days there was a new bombshell that changed polls. Close to the election we had the Comey bombshell so polls from September wouldn't have adjusted for that.
Here's polling averages for 2016:
Polls are nowhere this crazy in 2020. Polls have basically stayed the same since Biden was announced:
Another main issue with the polls is undecides broke nearly 3 to 1 for Trump in 2016. The undecides in 2016 were much larger than now. In 2020 undecides are about 4 percent.
In addition, the 2018 polls all showed a blue tsunami and it happened.
If you look at average poll results by state, the final polls were all pretty close to what happened except for in IA and WI where there were large changes.
You can see polling average vs final result here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html
Other issue too Biden has polling polling over 50 percent, something Hilary never did.
3. By definition the majority is the group of more people. Hilary won the popular vote by 3,000,000+ people so the Democrats may or may not be silent, but they are the majority.
You can see here, 538 projects even if Biden wins the popular vote, it still doesn't give him close to a 100 percent chance of winning:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632
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55 minutes ago, H2o said:
Oooh, does that mean they could all get cool, matching, gold pens too?
Yea, that happens with every major piece of legislation and Congressional action.
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13 hours ago, Dr. Who said:
By Biden can win on his own now you mean he can continue to be aided and abetted by a compliant press that shows no interest in asking him a tough question or investigating Hunter Biden or Biden's role in the Russia hoax or the ineptitude of his more than four decades as a political creature in DC, etc. etc. Personally, I hope he starts to think that way because it ain't close to over.
If the American people care about Hunter biden, they can elect a House that can investigate it and impeach Biden for anything they find
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2 minutes ago, shoshin said:
He tweeted a billion times yesterday. Trump losing with dignity is unlikely.
Ofcourse it wouldn't be his own dignity. If we learned anything the past 4 years, Trump is in this for himself. He's doing it to save his own money.
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Pulling out the ads makes you wonder too if Trump thinks he's going to lose. After the reports came out the campaign was struggling with money, Trump tweeted that he would personally fund the campaign. Why isn't he funding ads in major swing states?
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4 minutes ago, shoshin said:
They are pulling out of swing races to focus on what, CA and NY?
When even Rasmussen shows Biden up by 9 nationally, there's a reason Trump is running out of cash.
He needs more ads here in the DC area
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5 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:
Yes, they aren't conceding those states. The calculus is they'll win them and don't need to invest more there.
There is no way they think they have a big enough lead in those states while people are voting in those states that that is why they're pulling out.
You can do that in a Missouri or Alabama, you don't do that in the Midwest swing states right before the election unless you have no alternative. (i.e. they're running out of cash as has been reported)
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9 minutes ago, shoshin said:
Yesterday he pulled pack on ads in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Pulling back ads in swing states is not the strategy of a winning campaign. The debates are about his only chance (super limited) of any reset.
That seems more of an issue with their funds mismanagement than him conceding those states.
Definately not a good thing for Trump.
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7 minutes ago, shoshin said:
I’ll quibble on one point. 40% of the country is in the middle and is not a base. They decide the election every four years. But even this time they are decided.
Give Trump credit for one thing: I expect a big turnout because a lot of people have a strong opinion.
Another thing against Trump. If we see 57 percent voter turnout like in 2008, it will be a landslide for Biden.
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23 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:
Which makes you wonder why the debate commission came to this decision unilaterally without consulting either campaign.
To the bolded...I recall the same sentiment being almost universally held in regard to someone else who is currently not President exactly four years ago.
2016 was a totally different situation.
Here's RCPs 2016 averages:
Here's 2020 (from Aug but it's been the same trend):
You have a much more stable polling cycle without the crazy trends we saw in 2016.
We also have the 2018 polls accurately predicting a blue tsunami.
We don't have a strong third party candidate that will 5 percent of the vote.
As seen in 2018, Democrats don't want a repeat of 2016 where a lot of the blue vote stayed home assuming there was no way Donald Trump would win.
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1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:
Trump publicly releasing his test results would be a first.
He won't even release his tax returns, like he would release his test results.
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32 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:
Second debate will be virtual. Huge help for Biden.
Yea, now Biden won't need to worry that he's going to catch COVID from someone who should be quarantined. That has to be a huge burden off his shoulders.
If they're doing virtual, just cancel the debates all together. People are already voting. There's a tiny percent of undecides who at this stage if you're undecided you're unlikely to vote.
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Trump's approval sinking faster than a Rex Ryan led Bills team. Down to 44 percent approval rating as many Americans are starting to vote on Rasmussen.
Like a Rex Ryan led Bills team, the Trump campaign has been very undisciplined and making many unforced errors.
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27 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:
he’s filling the courts that sleepy joe n Obama left open, probably when they were getting bent over by ChinaThey were left open because McConnell kept blocking them.
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3 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:
Couple of takeaways
1. this is a better debate than last week so far
2. The moderator is much better than walrus
3. pence is comfortably winning
Trump said he won the last debate. After his poll numbers dropped. If that happens again, Pence is more than welcome to win.
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59 minutes ago, Cinga said:
That is only partially true. Obama also benefited tremendously by the vast number of people who left the labor force, artificially dropping his unemployment numbers. See this chart, and see how it actually started going back up again under Trump until the pandemic.
The CBO says that roughly half of the three-percentage-point decline in labor-force participation since the end of 2007 is due to the aging of the workforce. (For the record, it’s not just the CBO. A range of other papers—here, here, and here for example—have come up with similar results. Of course, not everybody agrees.)
https://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/
That's just one snippet from the article, but it's a great read about labor force participation under Obama. It goes into other reasons for the drop.
Dont forget under Obama you had people able to exit the labor force because they now had access to affordable health insurance outside of employment with the ACA
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1 hour ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:
I hope Mother is there as a witness
She has to be. Pence isn't allowed in the room with Harris without her.
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3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
Florida breakdown:
Republican 28%
Democrat 30
Independent 34
Iowa Breakdown:
Republican 29%
Democrat 31
Independent 33
Other/DK/NA 7
PA breakdown:
Republican 33%
Democrat 39
Independent 24
Other/DK/NA 4
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22 minutes ago, Keukasmallies said:
See Doc's post. Then, please post the employment figures for minorities per Adminnistrations.
You can see those figures here: https://www.npr.org/2018/01/08/576552028/fact-check-trump-touts-low-unemployment-rates-for-african-americans-hispanics
They hold pretty constant that as the economy is better unemployment for minority groups decrease. Since unemployment has generally been less during Democratic adminstrations, it's been better under Democratic Presidents.
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Huge new poll:
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf
Trump/Biden tied in TX. 1 percent lead for Republicans in the Senate.
Party break down:
Democrat 29%
Republican 38%
Independent 33%
If Texas goes Biden, it's all over.
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55 minutes ago, Keukasmallies said:
Well, in the last two decades the Democrats held sway in numerous cities, states and nationally over long periods of time and what happened, other than strengthening their own baliwicks, ....crickets....
4 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:
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2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:
Signs? Signs??
Lets look at signs -----
The signs in my neck of the woods - RURAL Virginal is 4 to 1 of Biden to Trump. Only 12 years ago the Republican to Democrat signs were 4 to 1. A complete flip!
Also ... 20 Trump signs in 1 yard should only count as 1.
I'm in a rural/suburb in VA. In 2016 it was littered with Trump signs and a handful of Hilary signs.
This year it's about 50/50. But there are noticably less signs than 4 years ago by a ton.
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2016 Election vs 2020 Election
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
If only that was true. Just look at UD government and foreign government spending at Trump Properties since the election. Look at money given Trump family members from the campaigns.
Trump has profited off being president and Trump has shown he only cares about Trump.
This is a man who used funds from a charity to buy a Ton Tebow jersey and a painting from himself.
This is a man who pays $70,000 a year for America's second worst haircut.