Backintheday544
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Posts posted by Backintheday544
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1 minute ago, Buffalo_Gal said:
Biden called Trump:
1) Liar
2) Racist
3) Clown
4) What was the fourth?
It was super embarrassing as an American to see Trump struggle so much to condemn white nationalist and then never do it. So a couple of those probably are ok.
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I think another big misstep was Trump saying you just lost the far left. That seems to me to speak more to the moderate undecided voters that could be concerned Biden is too left.
Far left is locked in to vote Trump out, so it's not like he's taking votes away from Biden.
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How/Why did Trump not condemn white nationalists?
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2 hours ago, Dragoon said:
I don’t believe it’s inaccuracies in the polling...I believe they’re cherry picking and promoting what they want the polls to say to encourage their base, discourage the conservative base, and to influence the election....ya know, just like everything I read from CNN and the NYT.Here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
You can read the polls and the results without any interpretation from CNN or NYT.
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6 hours ago, Dragoon said:
What was the lesson you learned from the 2016 polls? Because I learned pollsters are really influencers.2016 final polls weren't that far off. Heres the break down of swing states between actual results and RCPs averages:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html
Only Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa were crazily off.
The 2016 polls fluctuated a ton as well, whereas 2020 has been constant since Bidens nomination.
2016 also saw a greater number of undecides at this point in the election whereas 2020 the undecided vote is rather small.
Also saying don't trust polls because 2016 ignores that the polls predicted the Blue Tsunami in 2018.
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Rasmussen has dropped Trump's approval rating down to 46 percent.
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3 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:
And if you're still thinking in those terms, it shows you learned nothing from 2016.
The media is lying to you. That's what they've done consistently for decades, only now we have oodles of evidence to prove that they're cultivating reality, not reporting truth. If you keep buying into what they're selling (like Trump supporters are just a loud minority), you're discerning wrong.
What of the 2018 midterm polls that were pretty accurate?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/
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1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:
You laugh, but look at the RCPs average national polls. It's barely changes since Biden has been announced. A huge difference than 4 years ago.
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11 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:
You've got this backwards and upside down.
Trump did lose the last popular vote by like 3 million votes. That would make his supporters a minority. Plus all the polls are showing him down nationally by 6 to 10 points.
I only say loud because you see the rallies and those boat parades. You don't see any of that for Biden.
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On 9/27/2020 at 10:00 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:
....did you EVER think that revealing your political views would lead to threats of violence, property destruction, ACTUAL assaults, harassment et al IN YOUR LIFETIME?......would you HONESTLY reveal your political views in such a threatening climate?....and it does NOT stop at you.......bet your spouse and entire family are at risk.......we are sinking further by the nanosecond....what is even sadder is that it is condoned..............
Then you decline to take the poll. The pollster says thank you for your time and they move on to the next person.
What makes you think the people declining are overwhelming Trump supporters? Looking at the country, Trump supporters appear to be the loud minority.
What makes you think the sample is too small to make up for people declining to answer?
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1 hour ago, Tiberius said:
This has a great breakdown of the differences in the 2016 polls vs 2020:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1308381040940126208
The other interesting note is possibility of over-sampling Republicans to try to fix mistakes made in 2016.
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9 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:
From your link:
31. Just your best guess. When all the votes are counted for president this November, who do you think is most likely to be elected president – {ROTATE} Joe Biden or Donald Trump? (N=500) n % Joe Biden-------------------------------------------------- 198 39.60 Donald Trump -------------------------------------------- 227 45.40 Undecided---------------------------------------------------70 14.00 Refused--------------------------------------------------------5 1.00
You pick Minnesota, a state that hasn't gone for a republican for president in many decades. Does it not concern you that the numbers in this poll give Biden a substantial lead but the people who believe Trump will beat Biden lead by 6%?
Also, when the polls call states like Ohio and Texas "purple" it makes me wonder if there's any sense of reality amongst the poll takers or if they are just trying to manipulate voter sentiment. -)
I just picked MN because it was the first state poll listed at the time.
538 had a good discussion in May about Bidens lead in the polls but Americans thinking Trump will win: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-so-many-americans-think-hell-win/
I haven't looked much at Ohio. Texas makes sense to be purple now. Just look at 2018 with Cruz/Beto election. Beto came within 200,000 votes of winning the Senate seat. Texas is a state where the demographics are changing and have been for some time.
Here's the latest TX poll that is out: https://filesforprogress.org/memos/student-debt-project-electoral.pdf
Trump is up 46/45 and 9 percent undecided. It doesn't give a breakdown of who was polled, but it gives the generic ballot breakdown with 46 percent saying Republican, 41 percent saying Democrat.
Historically, undecideds at this point are not overly likely to vote so it's definitely in play this year for the Democrats. The other Texas polls have similar results so it's not an outlier.
I think the other concerning thing on the Republican side is how Biden is doing better in each battleground state than Clinton:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html
PA - Clinton was +1.8, Biden is +4.3
WI - Clinton was +5, Biden is +6.6
OH - Trump was +2, Biden is +3.3
NV - Trump was +0.2, Biden is +7.5
AZ - Trump was +3, Biden is +3.2
If you're unfamiliar with the site, they look at polling averages, which should help drown out some static from different sampling populations.
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10 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:
Poll after poll shows that basically 25% of republicans are included in each poll while about 35% of democrats make up those polls. Taking into consideration that conservatives do not like to be queried regarding their political preferences and many people don't like to admit their preference for Trump, the polls are badly skewed. Once again, foolish democrats have tricked themselves.
I don't know if you know this, but you can actually look at the polls and the sampling.
538's latest polls is really good because you can see a poll and click on it and see the sampling: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
I clicked like 10 of the latest and didn't see any sampling that you suggested.
Here's a recent MN one from Suffolk University.
Has Biden 47, Trump 40.
With rounding it was 40 Dem/36 Republican.
Click any of the others, there's not any I saw with a 35/25 split.
A couple things on polls:
1. People say polls were way off in 2016. If you look state by state, most ended up being close and within the margin of error.
2. Look at RCPs averages in 2016, there were huge fluctuations between Trump and Hilary during the campaign. In 2020, everything has been pretty steady for Bidens lead. There really have not been a lot of fluctuations, especially compared to 2016 and how much that changed day to day.
3. To points 1 and 2, I think during 2016, we saw almost all the undecideds go for Trump (I think the actual split was like 90/10 Trump). The issue with this election is there are not many undecides. Someone posted a couple pages ago about how a survey showed Florida undecides were going heavily for Trump. When you pull the actual survey, undecides made up 3 percent of the population. I can see that being true as it seems hard to think there is the level of undecides. I mean really, who doesn't have one opinion or another of Trump by now? In 2016, we saw far more undecides at this point.
4. Polls were pretty accurate on the 2018 blue wave.
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51 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:
There were other complaints as well, however one should not attempt to do what she did. It was foolish.
It isnt unreasonable to expect people to not put hot coffee between their legs. Just because the jurors were idiots doesnt mean it wasnt frivolous.
Dont you think it was foolish of McDonalds to serve coffee 20-30 degrees hotter than other places after over 700 complaints? You blame the victim when these were easily fixable things McDonalds could have solved.
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1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:
Dont be dumb enough to put a hot cup of coffee between your legs. Someones own stupidity shouldnt be dismissed in these cases.
Don't be dumb enough to serve coffee at 180 to 190 degrees per the employee handbook (which would cause 3rd degree burns). Don't be dumb enough to ignore over 700+ other incidents where the people were injured from your coffee
Presidential Debates 2020
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
A moderator is needed to keep the people following the same rules. When one person keeps breaking those rules, they need to stop in.
Imagine a Bills - Pats game. Refs keep calling the Pats who breaking the rules (I know that would never happen). You wouldn't expect the refs to start calling penalties on the Bills to make it even.