glazeduck
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Posts posted by glazeduck
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I don't think it's particularly likely to happen, BUT, we're going to have to be creative with salaries into the future... If you could find a team that valued Dawkins + 25 in the 10ish range and one of the top OTs was still on the board, I could see that potentially being interesting.
Outside of something like that, or Sauce or Hamilton falling to the point where we could get him at a reasonable price, I don't think trading up is a viable option.
Trading down however... -
Velus Jones in the 3rd would be an extremely disappointing pick as well. Guy's not a WR...
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15 hours ago, HappyDays said:
The Browns looking at RBs, after resigning D'Ernest Johnson, is really interesting. Probably signals they're open -- if not VERY open -- to moving Kareem Hunt...
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Since basically all of his picks were upended by free agency, here's his April version: https://buffalofambase.com/2022/04/12/astros-pick-six-april-2022-edition-bills/
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7 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:
I agree C Watson will be there. He's probably going to be the 6th or 7th WR taken.
What I don't agree with is your super bowl window stuff. The draft is supposed to be for the future. If the FO thinks a stud WR is the BPA you take him. A stud WR is extremely valuable and is a key piece in keeping the super bowl window open.
I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't saying don't take a WR, I was saying not to take a guy with a high likelihood of busting. Relative to draft cost, Watson might have the biggest bust potential in the whole draft. My only point was you can't afford to miss on your 1st round pick when you're on the doorstep of a super bowl...
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24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I think he will be there at 25. It only takes one team but I think fans get new player mania in the months leading up to the draft........while teams in many cases have had set opinions about certain players for years.
Scouts don't start learning about these players the season before they are drafted.............they are aware of many of them when they are still in HS in many cases.
Doug Whaley drafted Cyrus Kouandjio because he was enthralled with CK having been the top OL in his HS class.........scouts start accumulating favorites way before the last legs of the draft process.
For a lot of scouts Watson will be seen as a raw, untested and slightly over-aged player............so I don't see him jumping many of the other more established WR prospects and going top 25.
I think we saw that with Spencer Brown last year..........some people were mocking him as high as round 1..........he cruised until end of round 3.
I don't think Watson will fall out of round 2 because of the WR frenzy we have seen this offseason but he is probably no more than a fringe late first in the scouting community, IMO.
Completely agree. This is a guy that draftniks love to love and NFL types view with great skepticism.
Too add to that, there's the draft math... There's 24 picks ahead of us...
- Certainly 4, possibly 5 will be EDGE defenders
- Likely 4 OTs will go ahead of us
- 1-3 IOL get taken
- 1-3 IDL will be taken
- At least 3, possibly as many as 9 or 10 (unlikely) DBs get taken
- At minimum 1, possibly as many as 3 or 4 QBs get taken ahead of us as well
- Which brings us to the WR class -- by my board there's 7 or 8 guys who could go ahead of us (if you want to include Watson, since this is a 'what-if')
That is, at the most conservative, 21 selections (not including any surprise/non-chalk picks and LB, RB or TEs) and as many as 37. I'm not an advocate of taking Watson, I think he belongs squarely in the mid/back-half of the 2nd round, but if the draft falls such that he, in addition to all of the other viable WRs aren't even available at 25, that likely means other really good players are. Given our ability to find performance (Davis drafted in mid-rounds, McKenzie picked up off Denver's scout team, etc.) I think I'd be very okay with that.
We're in a super bowl window, we can't afford to miss on an early draft pick and Watson is about the farthest thing from a sure draft pick this draft offers. DO NOT WANT (at least at 25...)
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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I have another theory..... it could be in part at least that the top athletes from the SEC tend to go early in the 1st round. The Bills have generally been picking later. The top SEC guys have often gone by then. And of course the two early picks we have made in this regime just happened not to be SEC - Josh Allen out of the Mountain West and Ed Oliver out of the ACC.
Literally came here to post almost word-for-word the same comment -- add Tremaine Edmunds to that list of non-SEC guys we prioritized.
ALSO also, the ACC probably has the 2nd-best athletes after the SEC, with many of them also coming from the same(ish) area (Rousseau/Jaquan are from FL, Edmunds/Basham are from VA).
To echo Gunner's point, it's pretty likely that we would prioritize SEC athletes if the right one(s) were there when we were drafting (see Tredavious...)
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32 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:
Size probably limits him to the slot position as a receiver, but he would be an upgrade from McKenzie as a gadget player. He's probably got enough mass to line up in the backfield as a running back. He would be a fun tool for an offensive coordinator that has some imagination.
He's more a slot guy in the immediate future, but I definitely think he's got the potential to play outside, long term.
29 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:He’s not a 1st rounder, though some team could reach.
I think a very likely scenario is us trading our 1 back and improving our 2... Seems like our slots in the first and second aren't great fits for WR and CB needs. But 2 early 2s feels like it's a really good spot to address both.
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With the 92nd pick, the Green Bay Packers select Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State.
Reason: We've gotten Aaron 3 new toys to keep him happy, this pick should hopefully keep him healthier...
The 49ers (MAJBobby) are on the clock.
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29 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:
I agree and know that about 40 time. But I would rather draft something we don’t already have at WR which is a burner that can stretch the field. In this scenario I would rather draft Walker and take Thornton Round 4 or maybe 5.
Totally fair, I just think our staff -- and the league in general -- is learning that separation and the ability to get open is far more important than being big or fast.
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yes I'm not saying I'd have picked him here for the Bills necessarily.... agree with your reasoning but just in terms of thinking about what the sort of options are if the Bills leave receiver this late. They have to go round 1 or round 2 IMO.
Barring something crazy like a big trade up for a difference maker (or a vet), 100% agree.
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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I have just noticed that I think Wan'Dale Robinson hasn't gone yet? I get it he is a bit of a gadget guy and he is tiny but I have him graded slightly ahead of Metchie too because his elusiveness with ball in hand gives me something I can hang my hat on as an elite trait.
So my board would actually be:
1. Robinson;
2. Metchie;
3. Ross;
4. Thornton
I do think that is a realistic sort of board the Bills could face if they leave receiver to this spot. Similar to how I think round 2 is a bit of a dead space for corners I think round 3 is a bit of dead space for receivers. I have lots of guys I'd take in the 1st or 2nd and a lot of guys I'd be comfortable with day 3..... but round 3 I only have those 4 plus Austin and Shakir both of whom have already gone in this mock.
Yeah Wan'Dale occurred to me too, but with McKenzie reupped, I think the need for a gadgety guy is less likely than another outside guy. He's interesting for sure though.
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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Bell went to the Steelers in round 2.
7 minutes ago, NewEra said:Bell was taken pick 20 of rd 2.
Good, makes me feel less dumb to have completely omitted him, but also maybe even slightly more depressed about Metchie...
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4 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:
He is sort of on the slow end 40 time wise 4.5 I would rather go Rasheed Walker and draft Tyquan Thornton 4.28 next round or in the 5th.
Success at the WR position is about almost everything BUT 40 speed, so look well past that. It's not something you can completely ignore, but things route running and the mental aspect of setting up defenders on routes, agility, hands, concentration, catch radius, actual on-field performance are all vastly more important than how fast a guy runs in a straight line across an arbitrary distance in his underwear...
To that end, David Bell feels like he should absolutely be on this list and is not, which is a shame, I'd take him over Metchie.
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28 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Watching Metchie’s tape seems underwhelming to me. Nothing really stands out that makes me think he’d be a strong NFL contributor
He's underwhelming, for sure. I'd go upside with Justyn Ross, but according to your guidelines (which are absolutely necessary for your sanity!) he didn't qualify...
I do think Metchie has some potential, though, so also not the worst pick...
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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
It is Metchie or Walker. I went Metchie but either is an acceptable answer.
Yep, Walker was the other I was looking at too.
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Metchie, but I feel dirty doing it...
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Justyn Ross would be a big swing here...
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1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:
Supposedly Green Bay is very interested in him as a potential replacement for Adams.I can absolutely see that. I won't be at all surprised if he's drafted ahead of Watson (GASP!!!), Pierce, Burks, possibly even the Ohio State kids. To me he's all upside with next to exceedingly limited bust potential, and that's absolutely what most GMs are looking for in this draft (especially when you've got Aaron Rodgers needing immediately reliable weapons).
That's a good place to be when your competition is a speed merchant coming off a more recent ACL tear, 2 guys who look best aligned in the slot, an enigma that hasn't lived up to hype (Burks), and a small-school athletic phenom without the performance to back up his draft hype.
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2 hours ago, Vickveto said:
I just don’t see it with Pickens to be worth a first round pick. He is very good at a lot of things but I just don’t think he has a elite attribute.
spead: no (Williams, Watson). Tyreek Hill DK Metcalf
Yac/rac: no (Burk)
Debo Samuels
route running no (Olave)
Devonte Adams Stephan Diggs
catch radius no (?)
DeAndre Hopkins
in order to be an elite receiver You need to be elite in at least one of these four categories which one is he going to be?
@Vickveto I'd encourage you to look deeper into the metrics that most often lead to pro success. One of the leading indicators is breakout age and Pickens has one of the youngest, ever at 18.5 -- basically, how early did this kid dominate college football and he did it almost immediately. He also, in that freshman season, had a 27% dominator rating, so he was REALLY good, right away (in the SEC, no less).
As for his speed? The guy ran a 4.47 while rehabbing a torn ACL, so he's certainly not slow.
Catch radius? He's 5th in this draft class among the realistic top WRs with a 77 3/8 wingspan.
His RAS (again, coming off of a major injury) was 8th best among ALL WRs -- 3rd among relevant ones.
His freak score was 4th among top WRs as well (and once again, see: tear, ACL)
By the data, mid-ACL-tear-recovery George Pickens is easily a top 10 wr prospect. Once he's healthy, he's top 5 or better. Then, go put on the tape. The kid is a DOG. He blocks his @$$ off, he plays with emotion and intensity, his swagger just jumps off the screen. You see a player who's average at everything, I see a kid readymade for the NFL with zero weaknesses, a very high floor and nothing but sky-high ceiling.
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1 hour ago, Rhode Island Red said:
“Cade Otton - A solid looking TE who would seem to have a decent ceiling and a low floor.”
Is that what’s called ‘damning with faint praise’??Yeah, the faint part was unnecessary. He's a very average prospect
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Sauce is probably my favorite player in the draft, but that's a LOT to give up for one player. I'm torn on this, if the deal were more a player and a pick or two, I think it'd be a lot easier to stomach...
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20 minutes ago, Vickveto said:
Alex Pierce is not making it out of the second round. Some talent evaluators think he is Jordy Nelson 2.0 he may not make it until 57.
And neither will live up to their draft capital 🤣
Lance Zierlein "I have CB Andrew Booth slipping out of the 1st round"
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Something else to keep in mind about things like these -- especially this time of year...
These rumors are being put out there for a reason and that reason usually isn't just hype or to put content out there... Kiper and McShay's schtick is all about driving excitement and getting fans excited for the 2nd-4th rounds of the draft. Adam Schefter has admitted plenty of times (once to me in person) that he puts out knowingly incorrect information to gain favors and plenty of others do that as well.
I like Lance, followed him for a long time, but these aren't hot takes for the sake of being hot takes. They're being put out there with a purpose...