glazeduck
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Posts posted by glazeduck
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1 minute ago, Seoulofstone said:
That’s a fine decision making paradigm if you can promise me that the guy you’re trading up for is the truth. Gareon Conley went 3 picks before Tre. Remember Okudah who went to Detroit?People sell themselves on picks. Not saying I have the answer either. Happily defer to our coaches judgement.1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:we need to trade-up then. Can't reach in round 1 for a non-impact, non BPA player.
I think we're just waiting on James Bradberry. But if that doesn't come to fruition, I'm not necessarily saying we have to trade up, just that we need to prioritize CB as a need if we don't add a reliable veteran.
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22 minutes ago, Seoulofstone said:
Funny that people wring their hands over whom will be available. Tre White went 27 and Levi was a UDFA. Since it’s so glaring, I expect they have a contingency for a CB pick in each of the first 3 rounds.
As Mike Tyson famously said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" -- you're not wrong that our staff has shown the ability to find and/or develop talent from non-elite picks, but last year's draft is a great example of what can happen when you wait... you get left in the dust. At some point, need supersedes the ability to wait and have plans on plans on plans. If there's a position on this roster where that's the case, it's at CB...
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9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:
Beane better know what he's doing. I want a vet CB better than Wallace- and Nelson was one of them.
Still has options Fuller/Gilmore/Rhodes/Callahan/King along with a trade for Bradberry to get this done.
I think they're just waiting the Giants out on Bradberry.
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13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
Whether Bills will trade up and whether Beane is prepared to do are two different questions.
Beane WILL trade up if he see a player that he believes is off such value that it's worth using draft capital to do it. (That in part depends on his view of how many rookies actually could make this team.) We know he'll trade up, because we all saw him do it to get Edmunds, and there are a few other examples. When he see what he thinks is real value, he'll go get it. As he says regularly, he'll do whatever he thinks he has to make the team better.
I'm at the point where I'm not surprised by anything he does. I mean, I can't predict what he'll do, but when he does it, it's Beane being Beane. I really appreciate the breakdown of potential draft moves up in the original post. It's sort of a menu of what Beane can select from as the draft progresses. What we don't know, of course, is what Beane and McDermott think of these guys in terms of the key elements - team mindset, learner, tireless worker, etc. If they see a guy who's a special athlete AND has the mindset they want, I can see Beane going up two spots, six spots, almost anyplace to around the top 10. Can't see them being willing to give up draft capital necessary to get into the top 10. You only do that for a quarterback. I don't think you do that even you know for an absolute certainty you're getting the next Aaron Donald, because the extra performance you get out of him just isn't worth giving up several valuable picks.
When they traded up for Edmunds and Josh, they were very clearly wanting to set the foundation of both sides of the roster. To your points, they saw the right guys with the right skills AND the right mindsets at the right price and pulled the trigger.
We're a lot farther down the road now, so I think it's fair to expect some evolution of that thinking. As I mentioned earlier, we're going to have to get creative with contracts, a 17-game schedule means we need more depth, a more pass-happy league places even more emphasis on DBs, our past few drafts and FA periods cannot be discounted (how much more can we afford to invest in pass rush?!?), nor can our overall talent level (as I've said before, I think we're good enough to risk a few losses in the right deal). All that together, suggest 3 possible trade up outcomes...
1. Go get sauce. He checks every box above and if McVey thinks he can turn this kid into a superstar alongside Tre, I'd entertain the idea (but probably cost-prohibitive).
2. (As mentioned previously) if you can flip Dawkins and 25 for one of the top tackles, I think that's worth considering as well.
3. If Jameson Williams (or whoever they think is a difference maker at WR) falls to where a minor trade up gets *their guy*, I'd think that's worth it too.
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On 4/10/2022 at 4:26 PM, Logic said:
It seems that just about everyone has written off Zack Moss as a reasonable RB2 option going forward.
I understand that he had a down 2021, but he certainly showed promise in the 2020 season, to the point where he was viewed by many as the Bills' true RB1 heading into 2021. He is a hard running, physical back with good balance and catching ability. He was drafted in the third round just two seasons ago and Beane was very excited to get him (cue pithy Cody Ford remark here).
A few things stick out to me:
1.) In 2020, when the Bills offensive line switched to primarily zone running, Moss became very effective. Singletary, less so. In 2021, the Bills tried to do a bit of everything, rolled out the "RB by committee" approach again, realized it was a failure by mid-season, and scrapped it for a heavy reliance on Singletary and power gap runs and pin-and-pull concepts. These are Singletary's bread and butter, so whereas he had struggled in 2020, he rebounded and flourished behind the blocking scheme with which he is most effective. Moss, on the other hand, went the opposite direction. After averaging 4.3 ypc in 2020, he averaged just 3.6 in 2021.
Here's the thing with that: if I'm not mistaken, new o-line coach Aaron Kromer will most likely be bringing in the wide zone, one-cut-and-go stuff full time. As just mentioned, Moss thrived behind this running scheme in 2020. Why doesn't anyone think he can thrive again?
2.) We saw just last year, with Singletary himself, the following phenomenon: A running back comes in and thrives as a rookie, has a sophomore slump partly due to change in blocking scheme, then rebounds in year three upon returning to the blocking scheme with which he's most comfortable. This exact scenario seems to be playing out with Zack Moss right now. Nice year one, down year two behind new blocking scheme...why can't year three with a zone running scheme see the same type of bounce-back from him that Singletary enjoyed?
I'm not saying he's ever gonna be a top five back or light the league on fire, but so many Bills fans seem completely ready to ship him off for a late round pick or cut him outright, and certainly aren't counting on him to contribute meaningfully in 2022, and I can't quite figure out why that is. It's not as if he has NEVER shown that he can be effective in this league. Bring up the 2020 game highlights and you see plenty of really nice plays and both the running and passing game from Moss. Does everyone just assume he completely forgot how to play football?
If you're one of those who have given up on Zack Moss, I'm curious to know your reasoning. I'm also curious to know: if you don't believe he can rebound behind better OL personnel, with a better o-line coach and a blocking scheme better suited to his skills, WHY don't you believe it?It's funny, when Moss was drafted last year, I was VERY vocal about how meh he was, and I was told repeatedly that I didn't know what I was talking about. I might even go as far as to say that I was the most anti-Moss poster on the board. I HATED it (still do).
That said, people now are treating him as though he has Henry Ruggs levels of value, as though we'd literally accept a used dustmop for him and run laughing all the way to the bank... While I absolutely do not think he's anything close to resembling a franchise RB, people are absolutely way too low on him -- both as a Bill and as a football player in general. He played hurt last season and does have some potential as a short yardage thumper. Would I take a 5th round pick for him? Probably, yeah. But would I cut him? Not unless I truly thought he was the worst player on the roster -- and we'd have at least a couple moves to make before that were the case...
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2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Does anyone have a DB they don’t want at 25. I really like a lot of DBs in this draft. Especially in the 1st 2 rounds. I kind of want to double up with CB and S.
S in the 2nd would really have to depend on how the board shakes out...
I think WR, RB, TE, and OL are arguably all bigger need... CB, as long as its not the huskies, I'd be on board with. -
Something else to keep in mind about things like these -- especially this time of year...
These rumors are being put out there for a reason and that reason usually isn't just hype or to put content out there... Kiper and McShay's schtick is all about driving excitement and getting fans excited for the 2nd-4th rounds of the draft. Adam Schefter has admitted plenty of times (once to me in person) that he puts out knowingly incorrect information to gain favors and plenty of others do that as well.
I like Lance, followed him for a long time, but these aren't hot takes for the sake of being hot takes. They're being put out there with a purpose... -
I don't think it's particularly likely to happen, BUT, we're going to have to be creative with salaries into the future... If you could find a team that valued Dawkins + 25 in the 10ish range and one of the top OTs was still on the board, I could see that potentially being interesting.
Outside of something like that, or Sauce or Hamilton falling to the point where we could get him at a reasonable price, I don't think trading up is a viable option.
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Velus Jones in the 3rd would be an extremely disappointing pick as well. Guy's not a WR...
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15 hours ago, HappyDays said:
The Browns looking at RBs, after resigning D'Ernest Johnson, is really interesting. Probably signals they're open -- if not VERY open -- to moving Kareem Hunt...
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Since basically all of his picks were upended by free agency, here's his April version: https://buffalofambase.com/2022/04/12/astros-pick-six-april-2022-edition-bills/
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7 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:
I agree C Watson will be there. He's probably going to be the 6th or 7th WR taken.
What I don't agree with is your super bowl window stuff. The draft is supposed to be for the future. If the FO thinks a stud WR is the BPA you take him. A stud WR is extremely valuable and is a key piece in keeping the super bowl window open.
I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't saying don't take a WR, I was saying not to take a guy with a high likelihood of busting. Relative to draft cost, Watson might have the biggest bust potential in the whole draft. My only point was you can't afford to miss on your 1st round pick when you're on the doorstep of a super bowl...
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24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
I think he will be there at 25. It only takes one team but I think fans get new player mania in the months leading up to the draft........while teams in many cases have had set opinions about certain players for years.
Scouts don't start learning about these players the season before they are drafted.............they are aware of many of them when they are still in HS in many cases.
Doug Whaley drafted Cyrus Kouandjio because he was enthralled with CK having been the top OL in his HS class.........scouts start accumulating favorites way before the last legs of the draft process.
For a lot of scouts Watson will be seen as a raw, untested and slightly over-aged player............so I don't see him jumping many of the other more established WR prospects and going top 25.
I think we saw that with Spencer Brown last year..........some people were mocking him as high as round 1..........he cruised until end of round 3.
I don't think Watson will fall out of round 2 because of the WR frenzy we have seen this offseason but he is probably no more than a fringe late first in the scouting community, IMO.
Completely agree. This is a guy that draftniks love to love and NFL types view with great skepticism.
Too add to that, there's the draft math... There's 24 picks ahead of us...
- Certainly 4, possibly 5 will be EDGE defenders
- Likely 4 OTs will go ahead of us
- 1-3 IOL get taken
- 1-3 IDL will be taken
- At least 3, possibly as many as 9 or 10 (unlikely) DBs get taken
- At minimum 1, possibly as many as 3 or 4 QBs get taken ahead of us as well
- Which brings us to the WR class -- by my board there's 7 or 8 guys who could go ahead of us (if you want to include Watson, since this is a 'what-if')
That is, at the most conservative, 21 selections (not including any surprise/non-chalk picks and LB, RB or TEs) and as many as 37. I'm not an advocate of taking Watson, I think he belongs squarely in the mid/back-half of the 2nd round, but if the draft falls such that he, in addition to all of the other viable WRs aren't even available at 25, that likely means other really good players are. Given our ability to find performance (Davis drafted in mid-rounds, McKenzie picked up off Denver's scout team, etc.) I think I'd be very okay with that.
We're in a super bowl window, we can't afford to miss on an early draft pick and Watson is about the farthest thing from a sure draft pick this draft offers. DO NOT WANT (at least at 25...)
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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I have another theory..... it could be in part at least that the top athletes from the SEC tend to go early in the 1st round. The Bills have generally been picking later. The top SEC guys have often gone by then. And of course the two early picks we have made in this regime just happened not to be SEC - Josh Allen out of the Mountain West and Ed Oliver out of the ACC.
Literally came here to post almost word-for-word the same comment -- add Tremaine Edmunds to that list of non-SEC guys we prioritized.
ALSO also, the ACC probably has the 2nd-best athletes after the SEC, with many of them also coming from the same(ish) area (Rousseau/Jaquan are from FL, Edmunds/Basham are from VA).
To echo Gunner's point, it's pretty likely that we would prioritize SEC athletes if the right one(s) were there when we were drafting (see Tredavious...)
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32 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:
Size probably limits him to the slot position as a receiver, but he would be an upgrade from McKenzie as a gadget player. He's probably got enough mass to line up in the backfield as a running back. He would be a fun tool for an offensive coordinator that has some imagination.
He's more a slot guy in the immediate future, but I definitely think he's got the potential to play outside, long term.
29 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:He’s not a 1st rounder, though some team could reach.
I think a very likely scenario is us trading our 1 back and improving our 2... Seems like our slots in the first and second aren't great fits for WR and CB needs. But 2 early 2s feels like it's a really good spot to address both.
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With the 92nd pick, the Green Bay Packers select Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State.
Reason: We've gotten Aaron 3 new toys to keep him happy, this pick should hopefully keep him healthier...
The 49ers (MAJBobby) are on the clock.
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29 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:
I agree and know that about 40 time. But I would rather draft something we don’t already have at WR which is a burner that can stretch the field. In this scenario I would rather draft Walker and take Thornton Round 4 or maybe 5.
Totally fair, I just think our staff -- and the league in general -- is learning that separation and the ability to get open is far more important than being big or fast.
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yes I'm not saying I'd have picked him here for the Bills necessarily.... agree with your reasoning but just in terms of thinking about what the sort of options are if the Bills leave receiver this late. They have to go round 1 or round 2 IMO.
Barring something crazy like a big trade up for a difference maker (or a vet), 100% agree.
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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I have just noticed that I think Wan'Dale Robinson hasn't gone yet? I get it he is a bit of a gadget guy and he is tiny but I have him graded slightly ahead of Metchie too because his elusiveness with ball in hand gives me something I can hang my hat on as an elite trait.
So my board would actually be:
1. Robinson;
2. Metchie;
3. Ross;
4. Thornton
I do think that is a realistic sort of board the Bills could face if they leave receiver to this spot. Similar to how I think round 2 is a bit of a dead space for corners I think round 3 is a bit of dead space for receivers. I have lots of guys I'd take in the 1st or 2nd and a lot of guys I'd be comfortable with day 3..... but round 3 I only have those 4 plus Austin and Shakir both of whom have already gone in this mock.
Yeah Wan'Dale occurred to me too, but with McKenzie reupped, I think the need for a gadgety guy is less likely than another outside guy. He's interesting for sure though.
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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Bell went to the Steelers in round 2.
7 minutes ago, NewEra said:Bell was taken pick 20 of rd 2.
Good, makes me feel less dumb to have completely omitted him, but also maybe even slightly more depressed about Metchie...
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4 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:
He is sort of on the slow end 40 time wise 4.5 I would rather go Rasheed Walker and draft Tyquan Thornton 4.28 next round or in the 5th.
Success at the WR position is about almost everything BUT 40 speed, so look well past that. It's not something you can completely ignore, but things route running and the mental aspect of setting up defenders on routes, agility, hands, concentration, catch radius, actual on-field performance are all vastly more important than how fast a guy runs in a straight line across an arbitrary distance in his underwear...
To that end, David Bell feels like he should absolutely be on this list and is not, which is a shame, I'd take him over Metchie.
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28 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Watching Metchie’s tape seems underwhelming to me. Nothing really stands out that makes me think he’d be a strong NFL contributor
He's underwhelming, for sure. I'd go upside with Justyn Ross, but according to your guidelines (which are absolutely necessary for your sanity!) he didn't qualify...
I do think Metchie has some potential, though, so also not the worst pick...
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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
It is Metchie or Walker. I went Metchie but either is an acceptable answer.
Yep, Walker was the other I was looking at too.
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Lance Zierlein "I have CB Andrew Booth slipping out of the 1st round"
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
We thought a CB would fall to us in the 2nd, and when one did not, reached on another DE, which was the 3rd we'd drafted in the first or 2nd round in the past 2 drafts. Basham may turn out alright, but it was a luxury pick at best, a panic reach, at worst.