glazeduck
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Posts posted by glazeduck
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1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:
So what are we looking for in your opinion? Your looking for a burner would be my guess. Someone to take the top off of a defense. This is why everyone loves Jameson Williams. Well we have maybe a 5% shot at Williams. If that's the case we can eliminate other guys who ran slower. Pickens doesn't fit then either with his 4.47 which is too "slow". Take Treylon Burks off the board with his 4.55. Danny Gray ran a 4.33 is that fast enough for people, Bo Melton ran a 4.34. People just want big name guys that they think are going to be legit # 1s. At best for the next couple of years, the WR we draft will be a # 3 guy. If we get a guy in the first round that's fine I understand, more weapons for Allen. I'm sayin there are other options in round 2 or round 3. A couple of years ago no one was talking about Gabriel Davis. He was thought of as ho hum whatever pick in another very deep draft where we traded it for Diggs.
There are tons of guys who are successful is rounds 3 and 4 and later that become big time WR's.
Adding a vertical element to the offense is certainly one approach, and yes, Jameson Williams fits that absolutely perfectly. There's also more of the alpha/bully/big-bodied WR, and I think Pickens fits that mold (to say nothing of his 4.47 being both not slow and ESPECIALLY not slow coming off a major injury). There's the YAC/get-the-ball-in-his-hands and let him make plays mold, that I think Wilson and Burks fit... There's a lot of routes you can go.
I don't say this to be dismissive of your points at all, but there's SOOO much more to it than the 40 time and there are reasons why Danny Gray and Bo Melton are being projected as 3rd and 4th round picks and why other guys are looking at going in the top half of the first. You act like wanting a "big name" is a bad thing -- I want those guys because they're fantastic football players. You're right that people slept on Davis, but he's also worked his butt off to become what looks like a mid-level WR2, and yes, with Diggs in tow, the rookie will probably be, at best WR2b, but that doesn't mean you can discount how they fit in or how you would want to use them.
The 2nd and 3rd round options you like are fine, I guess, I just don't think any of them are special and we're in a window where we should be looking for special. I think in that range, guys like Justyn Ross and Tolbert at least have a chance to be special (or dynamic in a way we don't already have). -
5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:
I saw somewhere that we met with Rachaad White like 4 times and we could be looking at him in the middle rounds. He is a big dude. Runs 4.48, can catch and run it and has got pro coaching with Herm Edwards, Brian Billick, and Marvin Lewis.
Having met Marvin Lewis in person... that may not be a good thing
In all seriousness, I think people are overestimating the quality of play in the Pac12 over the past few years. It's one of the reasons I'm so down on the UW corners, and White didn't exactly tear up the conference to begin with...
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Love:
- Trade up for Sauce or Jameson Williams in the first
- George Pickens in the 2nd or Jalen Tolbert/Justyn Ross in the 3rd
Expect:
- Andrew Booth Jr. @25
- Tariq Woolen in the 2nd (maybe slight trade up/separate from Booth pick)
Settle:
- Zion Johnson @25
- Trey McBride in the 2nd
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11 minutes ago, cage said:
Bills will not be picking at #25. They're trading back and selecting Breece Hall w/ pick #3x (maybe #32 w/ Lions or early 2nd round)
If Hall is the guy, another trade that feels pretty reasonable/likely is trading down with the Giants for their 2 and Bradberry.
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2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
I just told you 3 really good players that could Kyle Phillips, Danny Gray, and David Bell. 3 guys you didn’t even mention in your initial convo with me. Okay so you hate Phillips, Calvin Austin etc because he’s a slot. Ok go look up Gray and Bell and tell me what you think. Both are outside guys. One a burner, the other a possession guy. Romeo Doubs(not a fan but a guy projected in the area), Bo Melton who is rising after the combine and had bad QB play his whole career
It's one thing to list "really good players" (debatable), it's another thing to identify a player that would fit what we're needing at WR... We already have 3 intermediate/separation types, so Phillips and Bell don't seem to make a ton of sense, at some point you can only have so many players running routes in the short/intermediate area. Gray is interesting, but to me, there's a sizeable gap in talent between him and the guys in the first 2 rounds.
I honestly think he, Doubs, Melton have had their stock inflated because there's so many good WRs at the top -- that gap in talent is pulling their stocks up. The guys I'd want if we're taking at WR in the 3rd would be Tolbert and Ross.
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1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
???Guy doesn't run routes. Seems like a strange fit for a team that clearly values separation...
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Not a rumor, but I have to say... I usually have a pretty good feel for our direction by this time in the draft, I'm fairly flummoxed this year, which means Beane & co. have done a great job not tipping their hand (could also speak to the way the draft board breaks out...)
- We need a CB, but rarely draft directly for need, and everyone likely to be available at 25 has flaws. I find it somewhat interesting that Woolen isn't being connected to us at all (DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying I'd want him at 25). The Booth injury rumors are interesting as well, he's the 3rd best prospect in terms of makeup and tape, he feels like he should be our guy... is it possible we've successfully tanked his value with those rumors enough for him to fall to 25? The rumors certainly seem to suggest that...
- We're being HEAVILY connected to Breece Hall, and could certainly use a RB upgrade. Is that smoke to throw other teams off our real intentions? Or is that confidence from us that there's really no competition in the top 24 picks for him?
- WR is a weird position for us this year... It's not a massive need in the moment but could be quickly... Jameson Williams is the perfect fit for what we need but really unlikely to be reasonable for us to get to. London and Burks don't feel like great fits, unlikely Olave falls -- the one name that's not really been connected to us, despite having him in for a visit is Garrett Wilson, who seems like he'd probably be the second best fit behing JW... The Pickens rumors make me feel like they're being overblown by a team in the 2nd hoping he falls to them. Is that us? Beyond him, it doesn't feel likely that there will be a reasonable fit in the 2nd without moving up (there's a big gap after Watson and Skyy Moore and the next tier). With where we're drafting, assuming no movement around in the order, it kinda feels like we need to get our WR in the 1st or miss out on the top talent.
- Beane's comments about the board being done make me feel strongly that they're either VERY confident in getting the guy they want (makes me think Hall or Booth) OR prepared to go purely off value, which means all bets are off except for QB and Edge, potentially...
All that considered... I think I think the Hall stuff is smoke, ditto for the Elam stuff -- they're both just TOO strong, for what we usually have out there. I'll shoot my shot and say -- again, barring big moves up or down -- we're either selecting Booth or Wilson, but who the heck knows!
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Elam or McDuffie
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37 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
I think some here under value Marquez Stevenson as a WR. He showed some good play last preseason toss in feel the WR depth in this draft is big similar to the year we got Gabe Davis in the 3rd. I don't see a stud WR putting us over the top this year. That's why am not advocating trading up for one.
Stevenson might end up being good, but if we feel like WR may be a need, a Super Bowl contending team CANNOT depend on a 6th round pick turning out. If he develops, depth is a great problem to have, but no, we can't just ignore a position because we might be underrating Marquez Stevenson.
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16 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:
Very interesting! I can't see it, but if Buffalo felt confident enough to pull the trigger on it, I'd be pretty excited.
Huge if here... but IFFF Buffalo or some other team were to successfully roll this into multiple high picks in a year or two, it'd be very interesting to see it starts trend of sorts.
(Again no way I see it, but 3 days to kill. Interesting thought)
Oh yeah... with a SB window you'd have to just HATE the way the board fell out and not have any reasonable offers to do something like that. The fun part, though, is he's such a high ceiling guy that if we really could develop him with Josh keeping us in the hunt, that could yield a massive return. But again, you'd have to be crazy to do that lol
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6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
As with every team who drafts at the bottom of the 1st, they have a group of players with 1st rd grades who they think could be there at 25 and they would take at 25. They have those ranked on their board. I wouldn’t be surprised if Breece hall is in that group of 5-7 players. I would be surprised if he’s ranked toward the top of that group. Is he in the mix if their top choices aren’t there? Sound possible given all the buzz. I don’t think it’s a revelation that they would like him. But I think he’s more in the mix for the Bills with a trade down or if he’s dropping in the 2nd. Of course if the guys they have ranked higher are all gone and they can’t trade down and feel there is a huge gap between him and the next RB they could just sit and take him
Agree with all of this. There's also a lot of "sub-questions" that play into this...
- who else is on that board that's still available?
- what is their positional value?
- what's the gap in value between those players (including Hall) and the next on our board at those positions?
- who's calling to move up and what are they offering?
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2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Two years in a row we've been connected to a speedy RB at the end of the 1st round. It almost feels intentional. The Jameson Williams love I could believe more. Beane will not be shy about trading up for him if he thinks he's a superstar.
If we really want Breece Hall I hope we plan to trade down with Seattle first. I can't get excited about him as our 1st rounder.
Given the way the board breaks out for RB, WR and CB, I think a trade down to bump our 2 up earlier makes a ton of sense to get 2 viable players at those spots... I'm sure the professionals see that as well.
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3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
FWIW, Atlanta is split on the QBs. It was Corral for a while but now there are some differing options in that room.
I’ve also heard that the Bills love Jameson Williams and Breece Hall is a real possibility.
Wouldn't be shocked to see us trade our '23 1st in a move up to get Williams if he fell far enough.
Another interesting consideration... The Eagles are all but guaranteed to use another early pick on a WR and it sounds like that may make Jalen Raeger available. Now I am by no means suggesting that Raeger has star potential, I think that's proven itself out, BUT, he's still an intriguing WR based on analytics and if we're looking for somebody to take the top off of the defense, I could see him being a usable piece to run wind sprints for a late rd. pick or signing him post cut...
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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Oh I agree. That rumour was interesting to me because it came from someone very well connected to a team that has their Quarterback (and it is not the Bills) which leads me to think it isn't a lying season thing. Now of course it would require him to know what 31 other teams are doing to be definitive but in principle it is someone who doesn't just spitball.
That's interesting.
Not gonna lie, given our success in developing Josh, I wouldn't hate taking Willis at 25 purely as a developmental asset
(not actually advocating for it, for the record...)
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8 minutes ago, Logic said:
• I had an NFC coach says this to me on Stingley: “Take the 2019 tape, plus the practice tape from that year against Ja’Marr [Chase], and he’s the first pick in the draft.” Which makes, for teams, one question an important one in assessing the star corner: Just how big a mess do you think coach Ed Orgeron’s program was the last two years, and how much of a factor was that in the return on Stingley’s last two years in Baton Rouge being so minimal.
These are the components that make the draft such impossible calculus to truly crack. It's not enough to rank players incorporating myriad athletic testing benchmarks (each with varying degrees of correlation/causation to success by position); body size/shape/growth potential/health/etc.; personality/psychology/motivation/background/entourage/cultural fit/etc.; scheme fit; value; immediate production vs. long-term potential; quality of competition; quality of tape, etc. The entire context from where the player is coming from needs to also be used as a lens from which all of the rest of this is viewed...
In this case, without question, true freshman (!!!) Stingley is one of -- if not THE -- best prospects in this draft, but that only leads to a bunch of new questions as to why he wasn't the following 2 years. Part of me wants to use my Christian Watson logic of "if he were really that good, you'd think that talent would shine through" and offset all of the deficiencies of these last 2 years, but another part of me looks at the general success crater from a blue blood school like LSU and can embrace the fact that there was probably a lot of suck around that program...
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18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Kenny Pickett will be the only Quarterback taken in round 1.
I could see this being true in an "on paper" sense, but I just don't see any way, given the extra contract year, some team doesn't jump up to take Willis in the late 1st as his absolute floor. He's too toolsy to not and he's the kind of guy you'd reeeeally want that 5th year flexibility with...
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35 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Why would you call Kyler Gordon “low ceiling”? He has more than adequate speed, though not elite speed, but he has good size and some real explosiveness 39.5” vert. and he is an eager and aggressive tackler.
I've seen Kyler play in person multiple times and I think the best descriptor I can give him is "solid"? He's certainly not bad, but I don't think he's exceptional at anything, and while he did test pretty well, that athleticism doesn't jump out in his play. Basically what I mean is, I don't see him becoming special, and relative to a lot of the guys listed below him, I see him as being fairly even with them in terms of what they could be long term, especially when you overlay our scheme and ability to develop and what we'd be wanting out of him. Maybe he's in the top of that tier, but if you can get a comparable guy with equal or greater upside with a later pick, why wouldn't you?
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Just now, gonzo1105 said:
Also sounds like it’s getting close to the draft and people want people to drop time tooYep, there's absolutely reasons for these things being leaked...
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13 hours ago, Southern_Bills said:
If it's a RB, I'd expect a lot honestly, if that isn't the expectation don't draft him.
If it's a CB, round into starter level play by the end of the season/playoff stretch.
Any other position, good luck with getting snaps.
Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book.
This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop.
In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).
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1 minute ago, Virgil said:
At this point, I hope someone takes Hall because we already had a RB drafted in round 2 in the last draft. I won't list Walker again regardless, which makes me think everyone will go Hall
From a "fun" standpoint, I definitely agree. More fun to have a bit of a challenge. From a "go Bills" standpoint... hard to not want the #1 player at a position of need at this point...
Just now, NewEra said:I wasn’t talking about you being a worshipper…..
Yep, same page. I meant my response more in general too.
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9 minutes ago, NewEra said:
I guess I should have left out “unfortunately”. I couldn’t care less who we get in a mock draft. I suppose the goal of a mock draft is to replicate the real thing. The idea of these mock drafts to me is to have fun.
the Walker comment was just a playful jab at the Hall worshippers.
I'm certainly not a "worshipper", there's a handful of other players on the board that I'd also be excited about (WOOLEN!!!!!) but I do think it would make a lot of sense if he really did fall that far.
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9 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Unfortunately, now someone will. Just because you wrote this
You're probably right, but isn't the idea to replicate the draft, not game it to where the best players fall to us?
9 minutes ago, NewEra said:We’re better off with Walker anyway 😉
Agree to disagree. Walker might be a slightly better pure runner than Hall, but he's one of the top
105 cleanest RB prospects to come out in the past decade analytically. He checks every box. -
1 minute ago, Virgil said:
I don't see any of the teams ahead of us taking a RB.
Cardinals absolutely could and have been connected to him quite a bit in the pre-draft process.
Plus you also need to defend against teams behind you (Falcons, Bucs, Chiefs) leapfrogging you.
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If the Bills really are interested in Breece Hall, THIS is the pick they'd need to go get.
No way are the Pats dealing with us and Arizona is a definite threat for him. A move of just a handful of spots in the 2nd is absolutely worth it at this point.
Prospect Watch: Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
in The Stadium Wall
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