CincyBillsFan
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4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:
Missed where you compiled games where both QBs threw for 300 and games decided by less then a TD? Wins and losses and addition is pretty simple to do.
As stated if Allen is not the answer I want to know sooner rather then later. The issue to me is coaching and that is the problem.
Remember Brady threw for 505 in the Superbowl and lost so 300 is meaningless........
We would all like to know ASAP. If Allen isn't the guy I like Joe Burrow a lot.
But the reality is that given the variables involved there is NO way you can truly judge most NFL QB's in less then 3 years. Everything from the surrounding talent to the coaching to the teams offensive philosophy impacts how accurately and quickly you can determine if a QB is going to make it. That's a tremendous amount of variability for EACH QB. And variability of this kind humbles statistics of every kind.
The only time you might be able to get a quick read is if they're either put into a disastrous position and you ruin them (see Josh Rosen) or they are truly awful (see Ryan Leaf). Or you can get an early read on whether they are that "guy" if you put them in a great position like Mahommes or even Lamar Jackson was.
Or take Kyler Murray. He came into a tremendous opportunity and is running the same basic offense he ran in college. More importantly he has a coach who is a proponent/creator of the offensive philosophy that he's being asked to execute. Let's say the Bills didn't draft Allen last year and took Murray this year. With our current skill players and offensive philosophy Murray would be teetering on looking like a bust. His numbers would be awful.
The reality is that for the overwhelming majority of young QB's it takes 3 - 5 years. Allen has shown enough to me to indicate that he's definitely got the potential to be that "guy". That means he has to get the full 3 - 5 years or we just keep running in place as a franchise waiting for QB lightening to strike.
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34 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:
Sorry, but I disagree with your assessment. Mahomes on this team and he easily has 300+ yards multiple times this year.
Buffalos receivers are more than capable.
The only thing holding back this offense is Allen. Fumbles, picks, over throwing recievers, missing recievers, and unable to beat a blitz with his arm.
Well we will have to agree to disagree then.
I think any QB in the NFL would have struggled to hit 300 yards passing with last seasons offense and team decision making.
They would have had a better chance this year but not by much.
In the game against Green bay KC had a journeyman QB hit 24/36 passes for 267 yards & 2 TD's throwing to the Chiefs stable of skill players. This was against a solid defense in GB. Allen would have had multiple 300 yard games if he was the Chiefs QB the last 2 seasons.
To look at our RB's & TE's and say the only thing holding up the offense is Allen is not supported by the evidence. I would have thought this teams dismal screen pass production would have been enough to convince folks the problem is NOT with Allen. But I guess that's wishful thinking when an agenda is involved.
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30 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:
I'd say too ignorant. Anyone who believes sub 300 yard passing games for years in a row is ok, is either suffering from dementia or too ignorant to understand modern NFL football....or the could be protecting their man crush, Josh Allen.
I'd be interested to see if they felt the same way about TT who lived under 300.
I think the push back is against people blaming Allen for the lack of 300 yard games as if he's the main reason for not hitting that number.
If you put Mahommes on this offense in 2018 & 2019 with every thing else the same I'm not convinced he would have a 300 yard game yet. Are you?
I also bet that if Allen had been QBing the Chiefs the last 2 years he would have had multiple 300 yard games.
BTW, did you see the Buffalo News breakdown of the Bill's struggles with the screen pass? This season they are 11/16 for 34 yards throwing screen passes to their RB's, TE's & WR's! That's an extraordinary lack of production that can not be blamed on Allen. Hell only attempting these kind of passes twice per game is alarming. Oh and before you say Allen missed his screen receivers those incompletions were all the result of deliberate throwaways because the D was sitting on the play.
As for having a "man crush" on Allen being the reason we defend him, well all I can say is that if Allen doesn't work out the Bills are set back another 3 - 5 years. And who wants that? Only someone suffering from dementia wouldn't give Allen until the end of his 3rd year to see if he's the guy. And if he isn't then we're back to square one in the draft.
So yea we desperately want him to succeed and this involves giving him the benefit of the doubt. And that's not to hard to do when you see numbers like how many and how crappy the Bills screen pass game is.
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1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:
Why would you look to the run game to evaluate Josh Allen's performance as a QB?
If you want to evaluate him, evaluate the things he does and has control over.
For starters because the success of the play action pass depends on the success of the running game.
A healthy running game that has the potential to break off long runs can really open up a passing attack. The Patriots did not focus any attention of Gore & Yeldon. They knew that even if the line opened up a massive hole Gore was good for 20 yards tops. There was no way either Bill's RB in that game was going to take it 60 yards to the house. Instead the Pats focused on taking away Allen's runs and short passes and forced him to throw downfield to beat them.
There's also the mental aspect. How much more settling must it be for a young QB to have a dangerous running game at his back? Do you think it helps Lamar Jackson?
As an aside what do you think about the Bill's screen pass production? Pretty amazing huh. Do you blame Allen for that? The Bills can't run the ball in a way that scares people (chunk yardage) and they can't execute screen passes to their RB's, TE's or WR's that gain yardage. Gee, that's just what we need to optimize the chances of success for our young QB!
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How in hell is Allen supposed to throw for 300 yards if this damn team can't execute simple screen passes? Have you folks seen the article in the Buffalo News detailing the AMAZING production we have had throwing RB screen and TE/WR screen passes? Here's what we've done this season:
* 5/8 for 23 yards on RB screen passes!
* 6/8 for 11 yards on screens to TE's/WR's!
And you can bet almost all those incompletions were balls deliberately thrown into the ground to avoid a loss of yardage or an INT on the play. If this isn't an indictment of our collection of skill players & O-lineman I don't know what is. I suspected the production on screens was bad but this is biblical badness. Complete INCOMPETENCE on the part of our offense.
Is there a fatal flaw in Daboll's screen play designs?
This kind of data convinces me even more that Allen is the least of the offenses problems. In fact we may be getting a complete misread on the guy due to our inability to execute simple screen passes. How many yards has Kyler Murray amassed throwing these types of passes? 75% of his total!
Take another look at those numbers. The last thing we should be crying about are the lack of 300 yard games. That's the least of the passing games problems. Not being able to execute simple screen passes puts enormous pressure on a 2nd year, raw project QB. Throw in our less then explosive running game and this whole thread is barking up the wrong tree IMO.
We won't see many 300 yard games until we surround Allen with the talent to actually achieve this milestone. I just hope we don't ruin a promising young QB in the process.
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3 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:
These are astonishing stats! Last night the combined screen play yardage by SF & AR in just ONE GAME blows our season production for screens out of the water.
* 5/8 for 23 yards on RB screen passes!
* 6/8 for 11 yards on screens to TE's/WR's!
And you can bet almost all those incompletions were balls deliberately thrown into the ground to avoid a loss of yardage on the play. If this isn't an indictment of our collection of skill players & O-lineman I don't know what is. I suspected the production on screens was bad but this is biblical badness. Complete INCOMPETENCE on the part of our offense.
Is there a fatal flaw in Daboll's screen play designs?
This kind of data convinces me even more that Allen is the least of the offenses problems. In fact we may be getting a complete misread on the guy due to our lack of a sustained running game and our inability to execute simple screen passes. How many yards has Kyler Murray amassed throwing these types of passes? 75% of his total!
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16 hours ago, Mango said:
For years we have been talking about whether or not the 300 yard game is important and if it means anything. I tried to weed out the busts and quick flame outs, so I put some caps on players in terms of NFL commitment via starts and/or longevity. Data compiled from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference
So I compiled every draft from 1998 of QB's.I left the google doc public and editable if anybody wanted to play with it or add information.
Minimums for the sake of editing out guys who didn't either have longevity in the league or weren't given long term starting opportunities:
- 32 Starts
or
- 6 years on an NFL Roster
- For drafts from 2014 +, must still be on an NFL roster
- QB's Drafted in 2017, 2018, 2019, must have started at least 1 game
Raw Findings:
- For QB's who have thrown a 300 yard game, their average time in the league was 2.29 years (rookie year is counted as 1)
- QB's who have met the criteria, averages a 300 yard game at their 8.9th start
- Every QB who has met the 6 year or 32 start criteria and has started a playoff game, has thrown for 300 yards in a game.
- Every QB with a playoff start has averages a 300 yard game within their first 2.28 years and 9.97 games started
- QB's with multiple playoff starts average their first 300 yard game 2.13 years into their career (early second year) and/or 9 games started into their careers.
- QB's with multiple playoff starts, and a 300 yard game averaged a 10.97 year career.
- Rookies, 2nd year QB's, and Career Backups excluded, Franchise QB's average their first 300 yard game 1.66 years into their career or about their 7th start (This is admittedly subjective. Because of longevity, it is tough to quantify)
- Matt Hasselback, Mike Vick, Joe Flacco, and Rusell Wilson, are the only QB's I have listed as Franchise, who took similar, or more starts to complete a 300 yard passing game.
***All in all, it does not look like a predictive stat in that completing it early in your career projects longevity. But the later a QB (games started) reaches a 300 yard game, the worse it is.***
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UMnKmGwq27h0GfFtnqI77KgDVQadOTg1rxS9TbNHoPg/edit?usp=sharing
Mods- Because this is a large data set, and league wide, I created a new thread.
Good stuff.
I wonder though how much Allen is impacted by a very conservative coaching style? Take his 2nd start against the Vikings last year. He had almost 200 yards passing early in the 2nd period with the Bills up 24 - 0. Then he threw a prefect deep pass that would have gone for at least 60 yards had Foster not dropped it. From that point on the Bills stopped throwing downfield.
I get why they did this - rookie QB and unexpectedly up 27 - 0 on the road against a good team. But I suspect that MOST teams would have kept the pressure on until early in the 4th. Had the Bills been more aggressive in the 2nd half I suspect Allen would have had his first 300 yard game in the bag already.
And we saw a similar thing this season against the Giants where Allen's 1st half performance seemed to indicate he was on his way to 300 yards.
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8 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:
It would have, but the Eagles game was largely about offensive failure for the Bills. They got the short field they need after a takeaway on STs and turned it over on downs. You’re not beating many teams in the NFL scoring 13.
I disagree. It contributed for sure but to me our defensive letdown was the main reason we lost that game. The Bills are built to win more 13 - 10 games then they are to win 34 - 31 games.
No doubt failing to score after the fumbled punt was a big deal. But it's not like we got the ball in the red zone. it was at the Eagles 44 as I recall.
And it's fair to say that the Eagles 1st TD right out of halftime was as big or even bigger momentum changer then Allen's fumble right before half. And the Eagles last 2 TD drives probably ran off almost 14 minutes in TOP costing the Bills at least 2 offensive possessions.
That's why for the Redskins game the most important thing is for the Bills Defense to get back on track. We can't give Washington the kind of long time consuming drives that we yielded to BOTH the Eagles & Dolphins. And if Haskins is QB it's on the D to force TO's on the Redskins side of the field. Our offense needs all the help it can get and after 7 games it's only received the ball in the opponents red zone ONCE.
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4 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:
not sure but
the Sean Taylor game, the Bills took advantage of 1 play .
December 2, 2007- Rian Lindell hits a game-winning field goal to keep the Bills' playoff hopes alive against the Redskins. This was Washington's first game after the tragic death of Sean Taylor.
I remember this game. Interesting to note that the Bills had some pretty good skill players back when Edwards played. I think it's fair to say that Lee Evans & Fred Jackson are more explosive then anyone on the current Bill's O.
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23 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:
I think he is hinting at the D getting worn down.
But that's a two way street. A couple of forced 3 & outs of the Eagles in the 3rd quarter would have gone a long towards keeping the D fresh.
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2 hours ago, Socal-805 said:
WGR550’s Jeremy White, to show why the Bills lost. "After cutting the Eagles’ lead to four points with 9:44 remaining in the third quarter, the Bills’ offense ran 22 plays for 30 yards"
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1st & 10 at PHI 43
(4:14 - 3rd) F.Gore up the middle to PHI 37 for 6 yards (F.Cox).
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2nd & 4 at PHI 37
(3:35 - 3rd) F.Gore up the middle to PHI 29 for 8 yards (J.Mills).
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1st & 10 at PHI 29
(3:02 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to D.Singletary to PHI 27 for 2 yards (N.Gerry) [V.Curry]. Flat pass, caught at PHI 27.
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2nd & 8 at PHI 27
(2:24 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right. Thrown away, receiver not open for screen pass.
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3rd & 8 at PHI 27
(2:20 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -2 yards (B.Graham).
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4th & 10 at PHI 29
(1:33 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to J.Brown (R.Darby). Receiver and coverage at PHI 6, crossing from left.
==============================================================================================================
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1st & 10 at BUF 38
(14:51 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to D.Williams. Thrown wide of receiver at BUF 44.
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2nd & 10 at BUF 38
(14:46 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to T.Kroft. Thrown wide of receiver at PHI 45.
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3rd & 10 at BUF 38
(14:42 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to J.Brown. Underthrown, receiver near sideline at PHI 44
====================================================================================================================
So this guy is putting it all on two weak Bills offensive possessions and not on the two Eagles 3rd quarter possessions that resulted in 14 freaking points? Is that how revisionist thinking works?
And how about that 4th quarter Eagles drive that went 84 yards into the wind; chewed up over 8 minutes of playing time and put the game out of reach at 31 - 13. Does this genius think that might have played a role in the loss?
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10 minutes ago, H2o said:
Haven't you read on here, it's not the INT's now? We've moved onto the fumbles and lack of gaudy numbers. His play is not acceptable in "people's" eyes. Bust.
Yep moving the goal posts is great ain't it? And remember Allen doesn't have a 300 yard passing game unlike say Andy Dalton who had one just last week! Oh wait......
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5 minutes ago, Bangarang said:
So we won’t blame the QB who can’t hit his WR in stride when he’s running open but it’s the receivers fault for not stopping his momentum and coming back to a ball thrown several yards short? Let me know when you guys want to have a serious discussion.
What if the DB tracks the ball better? It’s an easy INT. But we can just pretend that the only other options are a 50 yard completion on an underthrown ball or PI. ?
It's not easy to hit a WR with a pass in stride on a straight line 55 yards down field. This is the NFL not college football. Most long pass completions are guys tracking to the deep ball.
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1 minute ago, Happy Gilmore said:
Yeah, that last one was 2-3 yards too long on a wide open WR. I'm sure Rudolph wants that one back. I know deep balls are not easy and also require tracking by the WR, but Josh has been bad with the deep ball. McD or Daboll mentioned it needs work just last week.
Come on man you're moving the goal posts to take a shot at Allen. We all just saw Rudolph miss a WIDE OPEN WR by as much as Allen has missed a guy deep. And then he followed that up by missing on another deep ball by a couple of yards. Let me know when Rudolph hits a deep ball like the one Allen hit last year against Jacksonville or Detroit.
Long pass completions are at best low probability plays. Gven that Allen is now accurately hitting his short passes Folks are focusing on the deep plays because Allen is struggling a bit here.
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1 minute ago, Bangarang said:
That was no where close to being a nice ball. That ball was laughably short.Wrong. Watch it again. If Foster makes a move back to the ball it's either a 50 yard catch or PI on the D. That kind of throw and catch are bread & butter plays for a lot of the deep ball throwing NFL teams like the Chiefs, Rams Saints. Watch a couple of their games to see.
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6 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:
His long ball appears to be a lot better than Josh's, at least he doesn't overshoot his WRs by 5+ yards. I'm kind of surprised his comp % is that low this game.
He's also lucky he hasn't been picked at least 2 more times.
As for who throws a better long ball the sample size isn't big enough yet. In his 18 starts Allen has hit several long throws. How many has Rudolph hit in his 4 starts? let's wait until each QB has at least 32 starts to determine who throws the best deep ball.
BTW the more I look at the deep ball Allen threw to Foster the more I see it as an excellent deep shot. Most deep passes are balls that the WR TRACKS and catches. Foster made NO play on the ball and just kept running his deep pattern like a HS kid would. In the NFL I've seen that pass completed a lot as the WR adjusts to the ball.
And I just saw Rudolph over throw by 5 yards a WIDE OPEN WR on a deep pass. Oh he just overthrew another deep shot. BTW, these deep passes are not easy to hit.
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18 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:
Well, Mason Rudolph is a lot more accurate than Josh. I'd also venture to guess that Pittsburgh's offense is fairly simple and easier to run.
He is? Tonight early in the 4th quarter he's 18/32 which is a 56% completion average. And that includes a Steelers game plan that features screens & short passes.
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4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:
So John Brown is putting up #1 WR numbers but you don’t think he’s a #1 WR because of....reasons?Is your only knock against Brown that he isn’t a big physical WR who is going to go up for jump balls? If so that’s a lame reason.
Brown is putting up #1 numbers because he's being targeted like a #1 guy becasue he's the best the Bill's have at WR. What Brown hasn't done is to take a game over. This means making the type of catches you saw by shuster; or taking a quick slant breaking a tackle and going 80 yards for a TD or catching 7 passes for over 200 yards like Kupp did yesterday.
These are the things a true #1 WR does on a regular basis.
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1 minute ago, clayboy54 said:
You need a 1, a 2 and a slot guy, plus at least 1 consistent TE to keep the D honest. Right now we have 2 of the 4.
And you need a RB that can catch the ball out of the backfield and a RB that is a threat to break off 20+ yard runs if you rely on the nickle to much.
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2 minutes ago, mannc said:
They do, but do you think we have receivers as good as Schuster, Deonte Johnson and Vance McDonald? Or even as good as the Dolphins’ receivers, for that matter?
No, not even close IMO.
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5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
Just throwing this out there: are we sure that Josh Allen is better than Mason Rudolph?
I am. The Dolphins have dropped at least 2 INT's tonight.
And when was the last time a WR made a catch like that for Allen? The closest I can think of was the one by Knox along the sideline against NE. But even that wasn't as nice as the one we just saw.
And do we have a running back even half as good as Connor?
I think it's fair to say that Pitt's top 2 WR's are better then our top 2 guys; that Pitt's top RB is better then our top RB and Pitt's top TE is better then our top TE.
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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
That should be a fine. If throwing the football into the stands is a fine, that defensive set should be fine worthy.
An NFL defensive coordinator should lose their job over that call. Period end of story. My guess is that he was following orders.
This was part of the tank job and that should concern the NFL a whole bunch. It's fine if you want to blow up your team by trading everyone away but to screw things up DURING a game calls the integrity of the league into question.
And did you notice how none of the tools in the halftime show called attention to just how bad that call was.
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25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I think the Redskins with Haskins are worse than Miami with Fitzpatrick. This should actually be the easiest game of the year.
MUCH WORSE Happy! Haskins can't even figure out how to set the offense. He's played in the equivalent of half a football game and has 4 INT's. If a Haskin's QBed Redskins team beats the Bills the defense has serious problems.
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1 minute ago, clayboy54 said:
It’s called a “save the tank” defense.
The scary thing if you're Roger Goodall and the NFL is that it's entirely possible that this was a deliberate BAD defensive call designed to allow the TD. Booger is absolutely right - YOU NEVER run that defense in that situation. My goodness a high school coach might lose their job over that defensive call.
Week#9 Thread Bills vs. Redskins
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Then we should be looking for a new defensive coordinator and personnel after the game.
Haskins stats so far this year: 12/22; 54% completion; for 140 yards; 0 TD's & 4 INT's; QB rating of 34.5.
And for those saying they would have preferred Case Keenum? I'm not sure of the logic here as his stats aren't bad:
Keenum's stats so far this year: 126/188; 67% completion; for 1343 yards; 9 TD's & 4 INT's; QB rating of 94.8
YoloinOhio as a fellow Buckeye fan I'm sure you would agree that we must put pressure on Haskins. He is not an athletic QB and gets rattled by pressure. If the Bill's don't and allow him to get comfortable back in the pocket he could pick them apart. And if this happens my confidence in this coaching staff will plummet.
It doesn't take a defensive guru to figure out how to approach Haskin's at QB. I can't even begin to imagine the carnage Belechick would inflict on the poor guy.