No_Matter_What

Well...

Yeah that's why it is not 100%

Nix is average at best. Same for Williams and he is not even in AFC. Maye seems good but too soon to judge. Mahomes is worse than he used to be but still elite. Jackson had 3 bad games, otherwise is elite. Allen is elite. So no.

I'd say there is like 75+% chance that we are drafting WR round 1 this year. Beane or not. I am not a college guy, but looking at some big boards, one of these players is a future Bill: Carnell Tate, Ohio State (seems unlikely right now) Makai Lemon, USC Denzel Boston, Washington Chris Bell, Louisville KC Conception, Texas A&M Chriss Brazzel II, Tennessee Germie Bernard, Alabama

The truth? His honest opinion maybe.

You’re saying you don't care about the facts. A "simulator" is a tool that runs thousands of simulations of the remaining games. When it shows that we have a 99%+ chance of making it if we finish 11-6, and you, based solely on your feelings, dismiss that by saying it can't be true because we might be 9th if we lose this week, I honestly don’t know what else to say. The whole point is that if we finish 11-6, it’s incredibly difficult to find a scenario where six teams finish ahead of us. The teams in the hunt also play each other. The Texans and Steelers (if we lose to them) could have tiebreakers against us, but if those teams end up 11-6 or better, other teams like the Jaguars, Chiefs, Ravens, or Chargers will miss the playoffs. It’s really that simple. Take the Steelers as an example: they’re 6-5 right now. Even if we lose to them, for the tiebreaker to matter, they would need to get to 11-6. To do that, they’d likely have to beat the Ravens twice. But if that happens, the Ravens will have 7 losses and fall behind us. The ONLY scenario in which both the Steelers and Ravens finish ahead of us with an 11-6 record is if they split their matchups and both win all their remaining games, with the Steelers finishing 2nd in their division. So, the Steelers are essentially irrelevant to this discussion (assuming we end up 11-6, which is the premise of this discussion). An 11-6 record gets us in—unless something truly miraculous happens, no matter what you think.

You are wrong on both bolded statements. Second one is factually wrong, if we run the table and Pats lose 3 games we are 13-4 and they are 12-5. Tiebreakers won't matter. First one is also wrong depending on definition of "close" NYT says that we can lose any 2 games and have 99%+ chance to get in, so there is room for 2 errors. Even if we go 3-3 we have 60-70% to get in depending on which games we lose.

I started this topic after Week 11 by saying that it is pretty likely that we end up playing WC at Baltimore. At that time, odds of Bills @ Ravens were over 36% - Bills were 52% to finish as seed 5 and Ravens 68% to finish as seed 4. After our loss to the Texans Week 12 the odds have dropped to about 28% (25% as Bills (5) @ Ravens (4) and about 3% for other seeding options). Odds of Ravens finishing 4th are now at 72%, but odds of the Bills finishing 5th have dropped to 35%. Week 13 game against the Steelers will change a lot (in either way).

Expectation by whom? Fans? Same fans who now say that Beane is bad at drafting, bad at FA, is arrogant and refuses to bring in WR1, doesn't know how to manage cap, that we will never win anything with McD, who doesn't have his team prepared, that Babich is over his head, Brady is predictable and bad? That we don't have any NFL LBs, WRs are all jags, Dline is undersized, Tre is old and slow, etc. Fans "knew" all this before season started, so why was seed 1 expected? It just doesn't make any sense. This is a great example of nonsense which has flooded these forums and is exactly what @Casey D is talking about (I guess).

I wasn't talking about taking the ball decision. I was talking about being stupid to punt to 4&3 for the second time in a row.

So they can stupidly punt and hand the game over to the Chiefs NFL HCs are incredibly stupid sometimes

DO NOT PUNT Indy

I am sooo ready for some Flacco miracle

It wasn't a catch

Exactly like you predicted an hour ago. Only we won't have to wait till the very end of games, everything we wanted will be over in couple of minutes.