VW82
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Posts posted by VW82
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Think he might be one of those wrong guys on the bus McD was referring to the other day.
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Broncos run defense is no joke. You don't go into Minnesota and erase Dalvin Cook from the game without a good run defense. We're going to need another good game from Josh and the defense to win this one.
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I wouldn't go so far as to say his rookie season has been a write off but it's definitely been underwhelming by any measure. Hopefully he can continue figuring things out on the fly this year. He has a lot of work ahead of him this off season. There needs to be some major improvements in his game in order for this draft pick to be justified IMO.
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Our receiver group is much maligned but this man deserves some praise. He gets open. He has reliable hands. He'd be an excellent deep threat if his QB could get him the ball. I like Beasley too even though he's allergic to YAC. Knox is coming on. We have the makings of a decent group of pass catchers already on the roster. No need to pine after the next great college WR bust. We're better off finding replacements on the lines anyways or opposite Tre.
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8 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:
As you point out, Ellway's background coming into the league is absolutely nothing like Allen's!
Ellway was a consensus top prospect coming out of a big program at Stanford where he was an outstanding collegiate football player. Allen was not particularly good at a nothin special Wyoming program, and the book on him was "raw and likely doesn't have what it takes to succeed in league, but has some great tools including super arm."
The 2 players' backgrounds are nothing alike.
You're the one who made the comparison, not me. The point is, who is the recent example of a guy like Allen who was a little behind the eight ball coming out of college and then took longer than a year or two to show signs of being a franchise guy before becoming just that?
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This was an underrated loss. We can probably overcome it with more max protect looks and running formations but at some point Ford and Dawkins are going to have to survive on an island against a good pass rush. I trusted Nsekhe. Next man up.
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41 minutes ago, dakrider said:
John Elway "failed" until he got Terrell Davis and some great recievers like Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey.
No QB by himself is going to win anything regardless of his stats.
Also, are you trying to say Allen hasn't played good ? So Bills won 7 games despite Allen?
Bills won most those games directly because of Allen. Bills aren't winning most of those games primarily because of Gore and Singletary.Allen may not be a "franchise quarterback" yet, but to say he hasn't played good and that he should be at a much higher level than he is right now is ridiculous. Allen didn't walk into the NFL being an expert on reading defenses and blitzes, nor was he an expert in hitting guys on timing routes and working the short passing game. I think he's done pretty well thus far and there is no reason to believe he won't continue to get better.
Elway meets the criteria though. He went 12-2 as a starter his second year and the consensus at the time was that he was an obvious candidate to be a franchise guy.
Bills have won most of these games because our defense is good and because we've played a very soft schedule. I never said Allen wouldn't get better. I said all the franchise guys in the more recent QB eras showed glimpses of being great very early in their careers. So far I'd argue Allen hasn't shown that yet.
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39 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Yes. Specifically the "science" behind this poll.
"Go ask 10 non-experts what they think about a player they rarely, if ever, have watched. That will tell you the future."
Yes that's exactly what I said, to talk to ten people who don't have a clue what they're talking about. Nice try.
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I agree with PFF he's really struggled at times. Milano, Edmunds, and Oliver have all been bad vs. the run this year. Thankfully we didn't have to worry about that vs. Miami but it's going to get tougher pretty soon vs. teams like Dallas and Baltimore. Hopefully those guys can step up.
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5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
I've seen a lot of ideas on this board in the decade+ Ive been here. Some real doozies too.
This is one of the worst, and least scientific ways of proving a point I've ever seen. So congrats(?) on that I guess.
You disagree with the science behind a poll? That's a new one. It'd obviously be better to sample 1000+ informed people without bias but 10 will give you a pretty good idea most of the time as long as you're not picking idiots.
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22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
You need to at least define what you mean by "franchise QB" and what you mean by "flashes of being really good"
Otherwise it's just shooting at a moving target. No thanks.
Ok. Here's a better attempt: go talk to 10 of your friends, co-workers, etc., (can't be Bills fans) who follow the NFL closely and ask them for their unvarnished opinion of whether they think Allen either is or is very likely to be a top 10-12 QB for a few years at some point (i.e. franchise guy). See how many say yes. If it's more than half then you have a likely consensus among smart NFL fans that he's going to be good. In my circle of people I'm getting something like 2-10. Most say it's too early to tell or he doesn't look like he's going to make it.
You can get a pretty good idea of the value of any QB doing that.
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13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
To clarify, I think you've already seen a flash of greatness. The greats all have the ability to lead their teams back from behind in the fourth quarter. My understanding is Allen is one of the top ranked fourth quarter Qbs this season.
Yes, he has a ways to go, as does every other young QB. But I will say something here that I know will be controversial, and I am not saying you feel this way. it's just that it comes to mind as I'm responding.
I believe (sadly) there are some Bills fans who truly do not want to see a successful QB in Buffalo. They would prefer that the Bills not succeed because it gives them something to complain about, and gives them a reason to pound their chest and say: See? I was right!! on a message board.
Granted it's not many, maybe a handful or so. But all I can say is that reading the board recently, I have seen guys say they'd rather have the team lose as long as a QB throws for 300 yards. I have seen guys readily admit the only time they want to come on the board to comment is when the team loses so they can harangue everyone with their negative takes.
I keep these things in mind when reading the Allen posts.
The bolded is actually a really good point. It does feel like Allen is better than most at generating 4th quarter drives. His big runs are momentum changing plays too.
Think I've said this before but I cheer for the Raptors and have been posting on their board for over a decade. Some people are small and can't admit when they're wrong. What I've learned is mostly we're all fans and want to win, we just disagree on how to get there. It's all so beautiful and worth it when you're watching your team hold the trophy though. Try not to get too down on other people's fandom. That part isn't worth it. If Bills win big in large part because Allen is leading us there, I'll be shoving people out of the way to make room on the bandwagon and so will the rest of the doubters. At that point, you can say I told you so, and we'll be happy to admit the mistake and just enjoy the moment.
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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Sure, we can discuss it. List the QB who you regard as franchise guys over the last 20 years, I'll tell you my take on who and what I think you've missed, and discussion can take place. Also helpful would be to indicate your metric for "flashes of being star players for extended periods"
But without some meat around what you see as supporting your contention, it just becomes "is" "is not"
I don't want to sound mean about SoTier, but when a guy actually goes and says something like "Allen didn't even pass for 100 yds against the Eagles" and lists Wentz as one of his "star player" QBs but fact, the two were within 2 net yards passing and both >100 yds - well, I can't get too excited about taking a claim on face value and discussing it until someone "stands and delivers" about what and whom they see as backing it up.
How about we do it the other way. I can't find a single guy in the last few generations of QBs, basically since Drew Brees, who eventually became a franchise QB who wasn't good or hadn't shown flashes of being really good by end of his second year of playing full time ( and some people would argue Brees did show those flashes). I think you could define good/flashes as public opinion among smart NFL fans with different rooting interests generally agreeing the guy is probably going to be good or has done something worthy of note.
If you're looking for a metric to compare across eras that's tough. The game has changed too much so consensus among smart people that don't all have the same interest is the best we've got. Does Josh qualify based on that? Not among the people who I talk to, or the stuff I'm reading from people covering the league for a living who'd know better than you or me.
I don't know SoTier, but I can understand giving a guy a break for messing up a stat. If there's some a history there of a hidden agenda to manipulate stats in favour of Wentz and against Allen or something then my apologies for saying anything. Just thought he made a good point, and I still think it's a good point.
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10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Sure we can. It's wrong. The kid is improving as you say. I see no reason why he should not continue to improve (and that doe not mean he won't have some more difficult games).
You want the kid to be a star just past the midway point of his second season. That simply doesn't happen very often. I can remember Marino as an exception, maybe Russell Wilson. It's the most difficult position to play in sports. It takes some time to master it.
I'll give you Russell Wilson who's improved a lot throughout his career but he showed big play ability with his arm rookie year. Almost all of the franchise guys showed star potential right away.
To clarify, I'm not saying that Josh will be all done improving after year two. I'm saying that if we don't get some flash of greatness from him this year, it's very unlikely he'll ever become a franchise guy unless he's an extreme outlier.
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Can we at least discuss SoTier's overriding point that most of the franchise guys over the last 20 years have shown flashes of being star players for extended periods by their second year. I think that's noteworthy. As I tried to show in those graphs Allen has clearly improved in his career though much less so over the 2019 season. We haven't really seen star level play from him yet, at least not consistently as a passer. If we don't get a glimpse of that by end of this year then it might be time to re-evaluate his long-term potential. I really do think this next stretch of games is going to say a lot about who Allen eventually becomes as a passer. Hopefully he balls out.
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In case anyone want to see what his progression looks like since returning from injury last year. Tells a pretty similar story to the 2019 numbers I posted a couple of pages back. He seems to be on the upward trend as far as efficiency though not necessarily in terms of raw passing production where he's kind of stuck in that 150-250 yard passing range. Almost all of the jump in production happened pre vs. post injury last year.
Edit: the graphs below say week 7 but should say game 7-22 which is actually week 11 last year through week 10 this year.
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31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
In other words, if you select the data so as to best support the point you wish to support, you can find the trend line to support it.
I don’t think it’s fair at all to say. Among other things, 150-260 yds is a very wide range.
I did career numbers and 2019 numbers. Is there some other range you'd like me to show?
I haven't done the calcs but I suspect Josh's variance on passing yards is smaller than most QBs this year, so perhaps the range isn't all that wide compared to others. Watson, for example, has a range of 150-420 with a 270 mean. With Josh's average being about 217 we get a pretty good idea of his weekly production in passing yards.
The other thing you notice from the graph is many weeks this year in which his passing yards increased his passer rating decreased. Not every time, mind you. Not today. Not vs. New England. Lots of weeks though. It would be perhaps more meaningful to look at attempts vs. passer rating but I wonder if this might be further evidence that he's in the correct production range for his current ability. As we ask more of him, he becomes less efficient and vice versa. That might seem obvious but the more times he's able to maintain efficiency with an increase in production, that should be evidence of an ability to take on more than what he's currently doing (i.e. predicting future growth). Food for thought anyways.
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48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I’d just like to point out that your passing yards and passer rating regression lines are trending up.
That doesn’t support the contention that “the numbers tell us fairly plainly he will give you 150-250 yards every week” or that his production has plateaued.
Trending up if you count 2018 which I did say. His passing yards are pretty flat or arguably trending down a little in 2019 though. He's been in the 150-260 range every week this year. Think it's fair to say his production has at least temporarily plateaued so far this season. We don't know what the rest of the year will bring. He's doing a better job of playing mistake free. One INT in the last six weeks helps a lot.
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Thank you for pointing this out. Hold my beer while I go hammer the under.
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If the question is "has Josh improved since week one 2018?" then the answer is definitely yes.
If the question is "has Josh improved since week one 2019?" then it gets a little murkier.
Disclaimer: I would caution against putting too much emphasis in the regression lines as there's a lot of error built into them. I do think it's still useful to provide a best fit visual representation to give some idea of what direction he's moving in.
I think the numbers tell us fairly plainly that Josh is probably going to give you anywhere between 150-250 yards every week (ignoring runs) with a passer rating between 70-110. His production has plateaued but he's becoming more efficient by eliminating mistakes. For this team that's good enough to win games because we have a good defense, but Josh is going to have to find a way to continue improving his production for us to get to the next level. 225 passing yards isn't going to get it done in the playoffs, and most years it isn't good enough to get you there in the first place.
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Thought he had a great drive today in the second quarter which led to the TD. Three great throws in a row to finish it off. Other than that I thought he struggled. Titans have a pretty good defense though and it was a tough situation coming back so soon from the concussion.
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5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
You're very predictable, I'll give you that.
You're crediting Josh, I suppose? I thought he had a predictably rough day against a tough Tenn defense. It really helped his stat line that the McKenzie run was considered a passing play.
Daboll, Gore, and the Oline get an unreasonable amount of hate around here. I thought they were the difference today (along with our always good D and the Titans kicker).
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Daboll and the run game FTW. Defense only gives up 252 total yards. And of course, a big time thank you to Carlo Santos (and Mike Vrabel for sticking with him). Couldn't have done it without you guys. 4-1 baby!!
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This is getting overturned for a TD
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Can the Detractors Now Admit Allen's Growth?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by VW82
I didn't say "for sure" anything. And that's fine but then you can't have it both ways. You can't say he's improving and then out of the other side of your mouth shoot down any evidence to the contrary by saying we can't judge him in the middle of a season. Personally, I think we can judge him at various points and that's ok. I agree that we'll likely have a better feel by the end of this season.
Also, I posted a disclaimer with the graphs acknowledging the error in the trend line and the problems of doing this kind of analysis, but like I said the exercise is still valuable IMO to get some idea of the direction he's heading. That is the topic we're discussing. It's nice to have data, and the results match my eye test. He improved a lot pre vs. post injury last year, and has improved some over the course of this year mostly through an increase efficiency wrt turnovers.