VW82
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Posts posted by VW82
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27 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:
For those who have realistic expectations for a rookie DT, no, Ed Oliver is not a bust. He needs time to acclimate to how NFL Olines block and how radically different it is from college.
For those harping on passing DK Metcalf for Ed Oliver, they'll never get it.
I'd also add that Oliver is McD's side of the ball. I just find it hard to believe that he whiffed there and won't be able to find a way to make it work. Same thing with Edmunds who's had his share of shaky games too. Besides, you sign vet players to play with your young QB which is what we did.
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B+
He should have been picked for the second time on that throw that went right through the DB's hands and hit his teammate in the back. But it was windy and Josh also made some great throws. He's so effective with Singletary running the read option. He gave us 241 yards in 34 plays and kept the offense moving. We can win playoff games when he plays like this.
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In order of their excellency and impact throughout the game....
Singletary
Milano
Allen
White
Feliciano
Beasley
Lawson
So many other guys had good games too. Can we make an exception and give seven game balls?
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Yup Singletary emerging as a force has changed everything. Now we can run option offense that teams have to respect. This was always our destiny if we got far enough. Also, it's so nice to have bruisers like Feliciano who can shift over to center and we don't miss a beat.
Edit: what's exciting is Allen and Singletary still have another level they can get to with the option. Josh let Devin get crushed by a DE in one of the exchanges early today. We already know he's good at that but those two don't have as many game reps together as Allen/Gore. More of those plays are going to start becoming big plays IMO because they're both such threats as runners.
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Did Mitch beat up Hans again? Is that why his hand got hurt? Nice to have Feliciano for when that happens. He was such a solid pick up. Both were.
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Have to wonder if that throw might be the one that breaks the curse. Sometimes all it takes is one and then you get the monkey off your back.
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That was the kind of win that made you think we could go into someone else's house and win a playoff game. Also, nice to see our defense bounce back with a statement game. They're still the strength of this team, and even though Brandon Allen didn't play remotely well, it was the kind of performance that made you think we would have put the clamps down even if he did. Great effort!
Also, this felt like the quintessential Josh Allen game: some spectacular scrambles/runs, some "wow" throws, an ugly turnover, an ugly almost turnover, some ball placement issues that left you yelling at the receivers then at Allen, a timely 4th quarter drive that sealed the game, and most importantly a W.
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Yeah we have too many conference games left but good to know that if we tie there it goes to record against common opponents. Didn’t realize that so thanks to OP for at least getting this on everyone’s radar.
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On 11/21/2019 at 8:10 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Good find.
If I understand it correctly, the 538-ELO system is a rolling system that uses a guy's last 16 starts. So during the season, it wraps back into the previous season.
I also don't think it takes rushes and rushing TDs into effect.
From what you can tell, is that understanding correct?
It says they take rushing stats into account in the second sentence of the article. Also, they have Lamar Jackson ranked 2nd overall if there was any confusion. -
I have him in the 16-22 range as well (though probably toward the back end). It’s interesting that as much as many of us have disagreed on here wrt Allen most of us have him ranked in a similar tier.
Also, though I really like the Elo system I do think you need an element of eye test when it comes to QBs. Jacoby Brissett is definitely better than 19 and pretty clearly above several guys in his tier and the one above IMO. Murray feels a little high. And Lamar over Russell Wilson? Those rushing stats must count for a lot!
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Bet it happens @ Dallas. Our next five opponents are all ranked in the top half of the league in run D so there are no easy games. Once he gets close I have to think we'll make it a priority unless he's totally ineffective.
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43 minutes ago, Augie said:
I apologize if I am speaking up where it’s not invited or expected, but.......I happen to have been an Allen skeptic initially. I wanted Darnold. Time will tell if I was right or wrong. Allen is our guy, and I’ll be 100% behind him until it’s clear he’s not. I’m pleasantly surprised with his progress at this point. I have seen different points of view, but generally healthy discussions. That’s fine.
Happy to entertain anyone on here who wants to chat. No apology necessary.
QuoteThe mods are volunteers and also fans. They should be allowed to participate and not be a dorm mom for every post that pops up.
To be clear, I wasn't advocating for that at all; rather, merely providing explanation why I think many on here, including myself, have avoided using the report function. I'd also add that for us newer members we'd much rather find a way to get along with the regulars than report them. I'm down for talking Bills not causing waves.
QuoteIf you have legit posts that offended you I’d be interested in seeing them. Honestly. I try not to be extreme to one side or the other, but some posters and/or topics are very polarizing. If you go hard to either end of the spectrum, you risk the wrath of the other extreme. Almost always, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Allen included.
Like truly offended? No. It's more about putting effort into adding something to the discussion and being met with lots of "you're an idiot" or "delete your account #######" or whatever. I post on other sports sites and this one definitely has the most pronounced hive mentality though I suppose that comes with the territory and should be expected to some degree. The funny thing is, among my friends IRL, I'm considered an Allen homer. They all think he sucks and so I'm constantly defending him! Hah.
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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
When there are some people who have the experience of being able to be critical or reserve judgement or even be pessimistic, while others say "you will be accused of campaigning or outright attacked"....maybe it's not the criticism or pessimism that's the issue, but how it's expressed, and how stridently and frequently?
I certainly don't post here every day but do I spend too much time when I'm on here discussing Allen? Probably. I'll admit to that. But I've seen multiple occasions where a mod issued an unofficial warning by post number five (of the entire account) because the first four were about Allen. Given everything else I've seen on here it would seem fairly obvious that it's not just about frequency of the subject, it's also about the subject. As for how it's expressed, I don't think we're going to find a bunch of my old posts using inflammatory language, etc. I try hard to at least explain where I'm coming from, and I'm open to the opinions of others.
QuoteIf you feel you are being personally attacked, you have the option to report it. Contrary to some perceptions, the mods do make an effort to be fair, whatever their personal views.
Here's what I would say to this. It's a tough call to report posters, especially long standing ones with otherwise good reps, when a mod is posting in the same thread and at the same time as the personal attack, but doesn't address it publicly. The assumption is they probably saw it and did nothing (perhaps because it came from regular). I don't think you guys should be held to some impossible standard of catching everything, but there are numerous instances of attacks on here that...let's just say it would be surprising that a mod didn't see it. Out of all the personal attacks I've endured on here, I can't think of one time where I saw the poster get reprimanded without me reporting it. That seems odd. I will report attacks in the future.
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36 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
We have a dynamic here where it's OK to target and personally attack.......even troll/stalk those with negative takes on the team.
You'll even often see a mod "liking" posts like that which clearly violate TOS.
On the other hand.........if you are pessimistic..........you better stay in your lane and have a thick skin.
I know you are working to improve that but that's the way it is.........we can improve a lot there which will improve the quality of discussion.
There's a lot of truth here...maybe too much for this place. I think it comes down to this: you can't be overly pessimistic about Allen. You can have negative takes wrt anyone else on the team or in the front office but if you're consistently posting about Josh in a non-positive light you will be accused of campaigning against him or outright attacked personally. I had to take multiple weeks off here just to get away from all the personal attacks which just aren't healthy.
It doesn't matter what else you're posting either. I'm super pumped about McD, our front office, our defense, how well our FA signings have worked out, etc. Post negatively about Allen and be prepared for responses that are more about destroying your credibility than entertaining discussion. Not everyone is like that, mind you. Many of the posters here are reasonable and you learn things from each other in disagreement. Just have to be careful as Josh seems to be a third rail Bills issue in a lot of ways.
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12 minutes ago, Philo said:
Okay, there's our disconnect. About half a season of sustained top level play is much more than a glimpse to me. As you said he has had halves or games of looking really good, but is still inconsistent. I have faith he'll get there.
FWIW Baker arguably hit that point in the latter half of 2018. It seems like a really high bar to set but a lot of QBs hit it. That's why it's only a glimpse.
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2 minutes ago, Philo said:
How do we not expect growing pains when this is done? I have definitely seen strides in Josh's game since the beginning of this season, not to mention his strides last season with a less talented group. The offense is getting there.
Yes, exactly. They are ALL still in wait and see mode. I just take issue with you claiming Josh has not shown a single glimpse in his career thus far.
Fair enough. Let me define "glimpse" from my POV so we're not stuck discussing two different things. In order to get on my radar as having potential franchise guy stuff, you half to go through a stretch of at least 6-8 games (probably more) where you play consistently well and make enough winning plays to lift your offense into top 10 territory. Even some of those guys wind up not becoming franchise guys, but very few aren't able to do that within their first two years and then suddenly become great down the road.
Josh has had his moments (i.e. that first half vs. Vikings last year was crazy) but he's never been able to sustain it for longer than a quarter or two unless he's playing Miami. That's not enough in my book. All the 2018 guys save for Lamar are so up and down.
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I wonder whether the fact that Ford doesn't have Nsekhe as a snap-to-snap threat to take his spot anymore will cause him to better focus on his job and play better.
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1 minute ago, BuffaninSarasota said:
that's nothing more than your opinion. I think we can all agree Allen has shown marked improvement across a number of categories from year 1 to now. Not bad for a kid who went to that high-octane program at Wyoming ......?
It's the combined opinion of other NFL fans I've talked to who follow it closely, plus the opinions of people covering the league on podcasts, who write about it, etc. Plus he's outside the top 20 in most of the main QB statistical categories: 26th in passing YPG, 26th in QBR, 23rd in QB rating, etc.
I think pretty much everyone agrees he's improved from the start of 2018 to now.
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7 minutes ago, Philo said:
Didn't we replace virtually the entire offense around him this year? What does that say about the talent around him for the first season of his career? Would that qualify as extreme circumstances to you?
Also, I'm digging the tired old 300 yards argument as a top qualifier. I'll take his stack of impressive 4th quarter performances any day of the week and twice on Sunday. He has absolutely shown the ability. He is still learning consistency, as is the rest of the offense around him.
I don't mean to bash your entire post, because saying that most non Bills fans would likely keep him out of their top 20 QBs right now is an arguable point, but to say he has not shown glimpses of being the guy is completely disingenuous IMO.
We did replace everyone around him and yet we're still one of the bottom offenses in the NFL this year (and mostly because of the passing game) despite playing one of the weakest opponent schedules in recent memory. I guess I'm not sure what qualifies as glimpses. It can't all be 4th quarter heroics.
The impression I get from reading this forum is many Bills fans are convinced Allen's already shown he can be a franchise guy. I think there's some natural bias there. It doesn't feel like he's getting that treatment from opposing fan bases. For context, I don't think very many NFL fans are sold that Baker or Darnold or Rosen are going to be franchise guys either. Most would take Lamar as a franchise guy within the right offense, but only for the next 3-5 years given his style of play. It feels like all the 2018 guys are still in wait and see mode.
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14 minutes ago, Philo said:
Are you implying Josh has not shown a single glimpse of being a franchise QB? ?
Not of being a franchise guy no. Those guys typically have multiple games where they pass for 300+ yards on good efficiency, and their offenses are usually in the top half of the league (top 10 for the best ones) barring extreme circumstances where there's little to no talent around them. That's not us.
Josh has shown glimpses that he can become a good QB IMO, not a great one. Right now he's still arguably below average. I think most non-Bills fans would still have him out of the top 20.
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17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I'm saying that I believe he's improving and my evidence is to compare last season to this season.
That's what I did in the first set of graphs, and I agree. Here was my very first sentence in the post you originally replied to: "If the question is "has Josh improved since week one 2018?" then the answer is definitely yes."
QuoteI appreciate your disclaimer, but it appeared you then used the graphs to reach a conclusion supported by the one with less data.
That was my second hypothesis -- that his improvement from the start of 2019 is murkier. I then showed it going back to week 11 last year when he returned from injury, and again, the improvement is much less obvious. It would appear most of the improvement in production happened pre vs. post injury 2018, though his efficiency has continued to rise. It's not about picking one graph over the other as we're measuring different time periods to provide more context. It's also just one piece of the puzzle to answering a loaded question.
As I said in one of my other responses, we probably need consensus among smart people -- non-Bills fans -- based at least in part on eye test given the small sample size, and the fact we've faced an historically weak schedule of opponents to date.
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Here's how I think we need to look at it. If Josh becomes a 10-15 year franchise guy then it was worth it. If not, then no. Lamar is going to give you 5-8 years playing this style. That's why he fell. If your argument is no one saw this coming from him then I call BS. He was electric in college and won the Heisman. It seemed pretty clear at the time you could build your offense around his skill set and win right away in this modern NFL where you can't hit people.
We picked Josh for the long-term upside. The issue is most guys who don't show glimpses of being a franchise QB within the first two years rarely ever get there. Hopefully Josh can buck the trend.
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Our whole receiving core (Brown, Beasley, Knox, Mckenzie) is underrated. None of them are traditional WR1 but they all regularly get open.
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I said at the beginning of the year that we should be doing this, at least until Josh has a better idea of what he's doing at the line. If nothing else it puts tape out there of Josh making correct pre-snap reads. It also confirms to him that he's seeing what he's seeing in real time, and if not immediately correcting it. He'll have to drop the crutch eventually but right now training wheels are probably still appropriate.
Why I like the Bills having a short week against the Boys
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I would have thought that we'd benefit from more prep time. I trust McD to out coach Garrett if given the opportunity. But that's not what this game is about. Dallas has a big, bruising offensive line similar to Philly. We can win if we stop the run game. This isn't an ideal match up for our defense.