https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/509771468337915456/pdf/WPS5391.pdf
https://news.ncsu.edu/2010/09/wmsgrennescanertipping/
Finding the Tipping Point - When Sovereign Debt Turns Bad by Mehmet Caner, Thomas J. Grennes, Friederike (Fritzi) N. Köhler-Geib :: SSRN
That involves the narrative that you grasp what a tipping point is.