RocCityRoller
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Posts posted by RocCityRoller
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On 3/9/2023 at 7:28 PM, IronMaidenBills said:
Give me a list of 10 players, a mix or different positions and projected draft rounds that you think will contribute a decent amount of their time within the NFL over the coming years. I’m going to make this thread every offseason to see who performs the best on this site. I want to see if there are any posters that can hit better than some NFL GMs. After you give me a list of 10 players. I want you to give me 3 late round (4th or later) draft prospects you think will contribute or be an aka gem.
2. Steve Avila OL
6. Jalin Hyatt WR
7. Zay Flowers WR
8. Bijan Robinson RB
1. Ja’von Hicks S
3. Andrew Vorhees OL
Good lists. All the guys you noted may be available around #27.
Avila is plug and play day 1.
Jalin Hyatt - 6'0" 180, thought he may be a bit slight for the NFL. But a lot of film of him doing big damage from the slot, and Buffalo needs a slot WR. 4.3x speed is nasty. Could be Buffalo's Hill/ Waddle/Hardman type of guy. Good at making short passes into big plays (YAC). Very natural catching deep passes and has the ability to get open deep. May not be an Outside WR in the NFL, but the slot WR is growing in importance in the NFL. He may be my fastest riser for Buffalo.
Zay Flowers - probably the best overall WR that could be available to Buffalo at #27.
Bijan Robinson - clearly the best RB in the class. May fall to #27. Would make popcorn and have fun reading the board if tht was the selection.
Both Hicks and Vorhees are guys who should find roles in the NFL.
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I don't have a top 10 but here are three later round guys I think will have good NFL careers and could be fits for the Bills:
3rd round:
Jack Campbell - MLB Iowa 6'5" 249
Projections are all over the place, most are 3rd round. Sure tackler, makes some wow plays. Very good instincts. Played in nickle zone coverage for Iowa, which is essential for a Bills LB. Nicknamed 'Captain Jack', gotta love that.
4-6th
Ricky Stromberg - C/G Arkansas 6'3" 306
Offers C/G flexibility. Started at OG in 2019-2020. Moved to C in 2020, has been starting C since. Strong, good at both RB and PB. OG class seems a bit weak. May Want to double down on two C/G types instead of reaching on a pure G. Ricky Stromberg just sounds like a 10 year OL in the NFL 😄
5-7th
Mohamed Ibrahim - RB Minnesota - 5'10" 210. Projected 5th to 7th round. The type of productive RBs other teams get late. 3x1000+ yard seasons. 1665 yards and 20 TDs rushing in 2022. 5.2 YPC in 2022. Quick, not fast. Not a game breaker, but rarely tackled for a loss and good at shedding first tackle or making the first guy miss. He reminds me a lot of Singletary.
13 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:Ok, throwing my hat in here, and trying to pick 1 player at each position. I don’t necessarily know who will be the “best” at their respective position but I feel like
Late Round Gems:
1. Jonathan Mingo WR
2. Ronnie Hickman S
3. Zack Kuntz TE
2 more just for the sake of argument:
4. Andrew Voorhis G
- whoever drafts him may wait a year to use him but I think he is going to be good/great when healed up. With an investment in the 5th for sure
5. Mohammed Ibrahim RB
- Deepest cut I have. 7th rounder/UDFA possibly but he performed well and I think is worth a late flyer to see what he can do in the pros
I also like Ibrahim as a 6th or 7th.
Big time down on Ronnie Hickman. Small and slow is a bad combo for an NFL S.
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Good list.
Would you consider Kaleb McGary (RT- JAX) or Jawaan Taylor (RT - ATL) as under the radar?
Brown (LT) and McGlinchey (RT) are the shiny FA OTs.
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On 3/4/2023 at 6:38 AM, GreggTX said:
I'd love to sign McGlinchey. He's good but not great, so I think we could afford him. Draft Mauch too. We might need to move up in the 2nd or trade down for Mauch and a receiver. Van Noy is the kind of LB I'd like us to sign, but can he play MLB? Trai Turner would be kinda like a 3rd wheel at G with Mauch, Boettger, Bates and Van Roten. Mauch, I think, is the only one that inspires me. Our other G's are backups or low end starters and that's what Turner is also. Isaac Suemalo would be OK too. Nothing special, but affordable.
I like the line of thinking, and I also think McGlinchey will get overpaid. He is the most famous name among the RT available, I'm not even sure he is the best one available. 10 penalties and 6 sacks allowed last season. He also has an injury history.
Two other RT who would be immediate improvements and should get $12-16 million a year are Jawaan Taylor (ATL) and Kaleb McGary (JAX). I'd love to see Buffalo go get one of them. Should fit the cap and immediately improve the team. OT investment has been pathetic in the McBeane era.
The pure OG crop in this draft looks pretty limited, however this draft has a lot of C/G capable guys. Steve Avila, John Michael Schmitz, Jarrett Patterson, Ricky Stromberg among others have started at C and OG during college and have the size and build to do it in the NFL. I would be fine drafting 2 of these guys and having them play/ compete for OG and C. The IOL versatility is a big plus given Morse's concussion history.
Sign Taylor or McGary, Draft two of the above C/G guys, move Bates back to LG and I would be feeling really good about the OL potential. Guys like Brown and Boettger would be really nice backups or emergency plans at T and G respectively.
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Between his age, his down season and not looking fully recovered from his injury he gets to go to a place where he has a good chance to be among the top of the depth chart and make some hay as a starter in Houston. kind of like Jerry Hughes did last year.
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14 hours ago, Draconator said:
But isn't it generally true that if you at least attempt to speak the native language, the locals treat you with more respect than if you just start blurring out stuff in English?
100% correct in my experience too.
Been to Paris and made a regional side trip twice. Any attempt in French opened up the English pretty quickly. 'Bon jour. Parlez-vous anglais? Je suis Américaine. just that simple, the accent and the fact you were American or Canadian opened up the English if it was known, or helpful points and gestures.
I would guess about 2/3 of Parisians speak some level of English. Get 20-30 minutes outside of Paris and that might drop to 1/3 at best - so if Augie plans on being anywhere outside of Paris it will help.
I found myself stuck in a tiny rail side town between Paris and Chantilly on the weekend and the train I was on was not going all the way to Chantilly. Whoops. The only people around to help were the local les habitants. An 80 year old man who probably hadn't spoke much English since the Allies rolled through in liberation was dead set to help us out once he realized we were Americans, but he did not speak English, and we had a few years of classes between us. We made it to Chantilly.
Same held true in India.
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PFN Mock Simulator
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/
Assuming Edmunds, Poyer, Singletary are gone. No other surprise losses
Bills big FA splash is signing is a RT like Jawaan Taylor or Kaleb McGary. (I think McGlinchey is overrated)
1) Jalin Hyatt - WR TEN - explosive 6'0 (4.31 40) - a little light, I start him at slot
2) John Michael Schmitz - OC MIN - 6'4" 320 - Future C - compete for OG
3) Jack Campbell - LB Iowa - 6'5 245 producer - Edmunds replacement, basically a physical copy of Edmunds with better instincts
4) Ricky Stromberg - OC Arkansas - 6'4" 310 - can play anywhere on IOL - compete for OG/OC
5) Mekhi Garner - CB LSU - 6'2" 215 9.67 RAS. Built like an NFL S, very good in the box
6) Mohamed Ibrahim - RB MIN 5'10" 210 - producer and Singletary replacement
Two Gophers...weird
2023 OL
Dawkins - Bates - Morse? - Stromberg/Schmitz - Taylor or McGary
With 2 OC/OG drafted could trade or cut Morse. The concussions are worrying, and the cap hit is increasing.
Brown is now a solid OT backup, where he should be
Hyatt is a day 1 starter at slot WR
Campbell is a day 1 starter at MLB
Garner is developed as a S. I like Benford at CB more than most here. Marlowe is my backup plan.
Ibrahim gets the Cook treatment, but takes 30-40% of the workload by season end, and some of the punishment off of Cook.
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I would be fine if we did. I really liked the pick at the time. He flashes but is inconsistent and will want big money.
As much grief as I give Edmunds, Big Ed was drafted higher and disappears more.
He is cap friendly to a team that trades for him. His $10 million is all base salary. Easy to extend and restructure.
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1 hour ago, ganesh said:
Humans are the only species that dabbles on other species milk !!!
hmm
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Good for him. I like when players have post-career plans.
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On 2/27/2023 at 4:14 PM, papazoid said:
poyer has outperformed his contracts with buffalo.....only a few can say that.
its time to move on, he's old, lost a step and that playoff game vs cincy he was awful.
his comments about taxes.....he aint wrong.....big advantage for teams in states with low taxes
hope he lands a big contract somewhere....just not with us....i want that money invested in the Oline
tip of the hat to poyer....a great bill
I feel the same. Poyer has been one of my 5 favorite Bills during the Josh rookie contract window. A real baller since being here.
At 31, and with Buffalo starting to feel the crunch of the Allen/ Diggs and Miller contracts, this team needs to get younger and cheaper in a hurry to make a run in JA's escalated, but bargain QB contract.
The 5 year window is closed. We will be saying the same about Hyde next year. Enjoy these type of players while they are here.
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On 2/25/2023 at 8:02 AM, GunnerBill said:
I don't think that is what is happening with Poyer, but the general point is one I have wondered about too. I don't know enough about the US tax system though to really understand whether it is significant.
Each state has different tax structures. Each structure is different. Even relationships between states is complicated (reciprocal agreements). NY taxes non-residents who earn in NY, and NY residents who earn in other states. It is obtrusive. For those that want to debate that last point, I ask you what NYS Tax Form IT-203 is?
I can't blame a player, who is likely on his last contract wanting to keep more of his money.
By the time the average American pays Fed Income tax, SSI, Medicare, state income tax, property tax, school tax, sales tax, city wage taxes, right to work taxes, sin tax, gas tax etc I am sure our tax burden is on par with Europe or Australia/ New Zealand.
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On 2/27/2023 at 8:17 PM, BananaB said:
I’m not sure what’s not to understand. Name another wife on Twitter complaining about their husbands contract. Rachel is the only one I know of and I’d say the same about any other. Thought she should just stfu from the start and my opinion hasn’t changed.off the top of my head I'm pretty sure Ciarra (sp?) was posting a lot about Russell Wilson and how he was paid and treated in Seattle.
Not sure how many NFL wives have the social media presence and pull these two do.
Giselle is so high up the food chain, I feel the socials are beneath her.
On 2/27/2023 at 5:49 AM, machine gun kelly said:
It’s not the NFL’s responsibility to assess the tax implications in those states. Besides, the game checks are taxed in the state they play in so when the Bills play in FL or TX, there is no state tax. It would be impossible to manage.
In addition, I work in medical sales. Now it’s not NFL$, but it’s for many of us multiple six figures. I’ve never worked for a company that adjusts for sales people and mgrs that reside in NYC, Boston, and San Fran.
I do know most corporations with that kind of reach clearly adjust for cost of living differences. I wonder if tax burden is calculated or not? Not trying to flame or bash, genuinely interested.
For example a mortgage payment with an escrow account will have mortgage payments (TIPI) calculated with taxes and insurance included. I wonder if TIPI mortgage payments are factored in or not.
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8 minutes ago, NoSaint said:
he’s going to hate finding out federal tax was the issue and that half his game checks weren’t even taxed in NYPretty sure all of his bonuses which were close to 50% of his income last season are taxed at the state the team pays taxes to.
Poyer earned $10.27 million or $10.01 depending on the source.
$4.4-$4.6 million were bonuses all taxable by NYS
$5.6 million was game day checks - half of those were played in NY so $2.8 million more was NYS taxable
4.4+2.8 = 7.2
4.6+2.8 = 7.4
either number you use, over 70% of his income was taxed by NYS
income over $5m is taxed at 10.3%
Its also not that hard to compare a game day check earned in NY, versus one earned in FL and see the difference.
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Recall a few months ago Snyder said he had dirt on a lot of other key leaders in the NFL. This may be a significant bit of information he was alluding to?
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7 hours ago, GreggTX said:
He'll play for whoever pays him what he wants.
Yep, at this point in an NFL career guys who can still play become mercenaries.
Bruce/ Thomas/ Reed/ Bennett all did. Even QBs like Montana and Favre did.
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Just happy Buffalo is not in this mess. The Mahomes and Allen contracts are going to look like theft in a couple of years.
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16 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:
There's no way in hell Miami is the only franchise operating in this manner.
They are the only one stupid enough to manage things so poorly, it was obvious they were doing it.I'd be there are more franchises operating like Miami than not.
iirc the Jets were being called out a few years ago by some players over injury rehab and management.
As for a 30-31 yr old admitting his body isn't up to the rigors of playing a contact sport, good for him.
If the construction worker/ plumber/ nurse had that option, I am sure they would do the same.
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5 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
Can’t go wrong with a cheap Hooker
as long as you have antibiotics around
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On 2/26/2023 at 12:31 AM, McDeerInTheHeadlights said:
How can that thing be so expensive?
Minnesota is a solid comparison and an ideal example, IMO. very modern and enclosed. When adjusted for 2022 dollars, the cost was about what the Bills stadium will cost.
Indy also did well with Lucas Oil Field, it has a unique throwback look. That cost @1billion adjusted for inflation.
The cost of doing business is expensive in NY.
Will be interesting what Green Bay, KC and Chicago do as their time comes for new stadiums.
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On 2/17/2023 at 3:48 PM, GolfandBills said:
Were you seeing this at? Everything I’ve seen says the team takes on full contract terms with a trade.
No. In short the team trading away the player is on the hook for all signing bonuses and many other bonuses. This includes voidable years (stretching cap hit over years a player no longer plays). Those get escalated and become payable immediately.
The team acquiring the player is only on the hook for the base salary. as scheduled in the contract for each year.
Evans is $13 million for one year (2023). He is a FA in 2024.
I personally have 0 interest in a 30 yr old, 1 year rental at $13 million. He is a good WR, but is not 'all in' each play, and has plenty of mental lapses the past two seasons.
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19 hours ago, HardyBoy said:
A hand held BAC thing, why exactly would that cost a ton? Also, you would need way less than 3,000 people to do a statistical analysis if you have a representative sample (pretty sure you can get statistical significance of a random sample of 30).
My guess is they went to various backers bars of various teams and randomly picked people. I doubt they walked around tailgates at the stadium. Probably something where you got a free pint glass for blowing into a hand held thing. Also, you're taking this way too seriously, it's a light hearted stupid internet list.
A population of 70,000 (fans in attendance) would require a sample of 2300 for a margin of error of 2% at a confidence interval of 95%.
One would have to approach nearly 5k given that 50% of respondents may agree to participate.
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10 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:
OBJ in free agency. Trade up for Skoronski in 1st round.
Just wanted to clarify the puke for OBJ
Aok with Skoronski
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16 minutes ago, folz said:
Sometimes I think you guys are a bit unrealistic.
Only 22 receivers in the NFL had over 1,000 yards this season (there are 32 teams...so many teams didn't even have their #1 WR gain 1,000 yards, let alone their #2).
Of those 22 receivers, only 3 had 10+ TDs (Adams, Brown, and Diggs).
So, only 3 WRs in the entire NFL had 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this year. THREE. And you expect that from our #2 WR as if that is normal for a #2? Heck, it's not even normal for a #1.......
Thank you, some sanity on this board and good data driven perspective. I looked at all players with 50+ targets, and then just WR with 50+ targets.
Will share that soon.
Something fun to note. Tampa (142 targets) and Cincy (126 targets) were the only two teams with 2 RB to have more than 50 targets. It's almost like passing to your RB makes life easier. McCaffrey and Eckler also got fed.
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Under the Radar Free Agency Sleepers
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Agree with you on McGary. I think he is the most balanced of the bunch. Only 5 penalties and 6 sacks allowed on 1051 snaps! 3.9% pressure against in pass blocking and PFF gave him a 91.6 run blocking grade. Just turned 28 in February. I think Atlanta goofed not exercising the 5th year option (he was a 1st round pick). Has only missed 2 games in 4 years. Starter in all of em. Improves every year.
Taylor is steadily improving each year and is only 25 (turns 26 in November). Never missed a game in 4 years. Starter in all of them too. 7 penalties and 5 sacks allowed on 1095 snaps. Better pass blocker than run blocker. Improving each year.
I think McGlinchey would be an improvement here but is overrated and a bit injury prone.
Turned 28 in January. 10 penalties! and 6 sacks allowed in 1036 snaps. He has missed games for stretches in 2 of 5 seasons. Balanced blocker though, and plays nasty in the run game. Agree he is maxed out.