Mikey152
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Posts posted by Mikey152
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22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
1) You are forgetting the two home playoff games under Joe Brady.
I'm not going to cherry pick because I want as much data as possible to determine the likelihood. Let alone remove dominant, winning results like the Dallas game. That would be asinine. Do we not hope for such games?
2) You are also conflating Josh Allen's individual passing stats(243.7) with team passing stats which subtract sack yardage.
You set the parameters for the discussion at where the TEAM would rank........so you are confusing your damn self........let's stay within the team dynamic you requested.
3) Yes if the Bills run the ball effectively and Josh Allen scores 11 rushing TD's every 9 games(or even 8 in 7 games if you cherry pick
) then they will probably win a lot of games and people won't notice how far the passing game has fallen off. You clearly didn't notice it last year. A lot of people didn't because they were winning. I don't think 9.2 rush attempts and 1.2 rush TD's per game is a good way to use your franchise QB but I don't see where they added enough talent to win in a different way. Hopefully I am wrong.
4) Ahem.
5) Again, my prediction is that this won't be the WR corps they stick with all season.
But if this is who they stick with, then the likelihood is that McDermott's "complementary football" will have to continue.
And whether you want to call it 7 games(17th in passing yardage for Allen individually) or 9 games(23rd in team passing yards) those numbers are a FAR cry from the top 5-10 you are predicting. Therefore UNLIKELY. Which is the point. It's not about making baseless gut predictions. It's about what's likely based on the most relevant data we have.
Lets try this another way...
6 teams scored more than 50 touchdowns last season on offense. Dolphins, 9ers, Lions, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills.
5 of them were in the top 10 in rushing yards. 5 of them were in the top 10 in passing yards. Cowboys and Ravens were most unbalanced (shocker).
The 2023 Lions are a perfect example of the hypocrisy around skill players. St. Brown is a 6' slot receiver that was drafted in the 4th round, and LaPorta was a 3rd round TE. Their high pick WR has had health issues and put up 24 catches last season. Their #2 WR was a journeyman with 600 yards as his best ever season. And their QB was another teams garbage. They did have two backs almost run for 1k each and two pro bowlers on the Oline.
Heading into the season, that looked like trash. But their offense was one of the best in the NFL and their OC (who runs A LOT) is considered one of the best in the NFL. St. Brown got a massive deal despite being a 4th round pick because he produced in the slot with tons of targets. It's almost like all some guys need is an opportunity and balance can result in a great offense.
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21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
The biggest change for the Bills since 2020?
They had a top 3 WR corps in 2020.
They have a bottom 3 to 6 WR corps now.
Part of that is the Bills letting their WR corps atrophy greatly...........it's not like the 2020 group was a bunch of kids they failed to build thru the draft so they added a bunch of mid-to-late career vets.
The bigger part of their decline in the league rankings is that the league has had a huge influx of WR talent each season.........and that 2020 talent they had might not rank top 12 in today's game.
Defense's all broadly adjusted to taking away big plays because they were getting overwhelmed because everybody suddenly had WR talent.
Offense's have been impacted because they don't execute well enough to string together 10+ play drives without mistakes...........not because defense's have gotten dominant.
So offense's are trying to get MORE playmakers.........guys who can still make plays against defense's that are playing bend-but-don't-break defense.
Which league ranking, exactly, are you referring to?
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15 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
Every team needs an offensive identity. The identity of the Bills' offense should be built around the pass. Back when the Bills' passing offense was at its best, it had the following. 1) Josh Allen at QB. 2) Good offensive weapons: Diggs, Beasley, Davis, Knox. 3) An OL which was reasonably proficient at pass protection. 4) A good OC, in the form of Daboll, who was committed to the pass and knew how to scheme guys open. When the team has a proper identity, all four of those boxes are checked. A failure to check even one box means the offense is not firing on all cylinders.
Does this style of offense work in January? Josh Allen achieved the highest QB rating in NFL postseason history, with one playoff game in Buffalo and the other in Kansas City. Yeah, I'd say a passing offense can work in January. The enemy of passing isn't cold so much as it is wind. By the time you get to January, the windiest games of the season are generally behind you. In the Chiefs' postseason games, do you see the Chiefs give up on the pass? Take the ball out of Mahomes' hands, in order to give it to the RB instead? Is that how they've been winning their Super Bowls? Did the Patriots win their Super Bowls by getting away from Tom Brady in the postseason, and running the ball instead?
You win in January by having an elite passing offense.
You keep talking about 2020/2021 like nothing has changed...
Offense across the league is down since then, especially passing offense and even more significantly passing in the Red Zone. It's a big reason Gabe Davis seemed to regress...Teams started playing more two high and refs started calling less DPI. It was easier to neutralize him.
To me, that was the biggest change going from Dorsey to Brady. Dorsey continued to call plays like nothing had changed, and the only reason we didn't completely suck is because he has the best QB in the NFL on his team. When Brady took over, our efficiency went way down, but we were finally taking what the defense was giving us. I think we realized pretty quick that our roster was not built for more of a possession and YAC game, though. Inconsistent hands and pretty bad ball skills across the board. Right plays, wrong players. Only Shakir looked like a fit. Not a coincidence he is the only WR left. I think Stef could do it, but lets be real...his bread and butter is winning routes against man and making catches downfield. He was never a great after catch guy and most of his drops were on quick passes where LB might be lurking so he isn't trying to work middle zones.
So, like them or not, our new WR do fit what Brady wants to do and the way the NFL is trending better. If we had more money (Stef dead cap) maybe we get a better player than MVS/Claypool as the Vet X, but I think Shakir and Samuel are exactly who they need at Y and Z...guys who make catches and can make things happen with the ball in their hands.
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1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
The 6-6 start was due in large part to McDermott sometimes opting for a soft zone/prevent defense. The Eagles game was a good example. Tight pass coverage and a good defensive plan for the first half, limiting the Eagles to just 3 points at halftime. Soft zone/prevent defense for the second half. Simply allowing the Eagles to complete 8 - 12 yard passes, with literally no opposition from the defense. The Eagles scored every drive once the Bills went to that style of prevent defense. The result was a completely avoidable loss.
The Bills defense also allowed the short stuff when facing Mac Jones and the Patriots, even though that Patriots offense was built around taking the short stuff. Result: Mac Jones put up Montana-like numbers, and another Bills loss. The primary reason for the late season win streak was because the defense tightened up. McDermott had gotten away from the soft zone/prevent defense which had failed so abysmally earlier in the season.
The offensive improvement under Brady is mostly a mirage. He got more drives per game, causing overall numbers to go up. But his points per drive stat was about the same as it had been under Dorsey.
When the Bills' passing offense was at its best, the team came within 13 seconds of a postseason win over the Chiefs. That was despite a near-total defensive collapse (two defensive stops). If an elite passing offense is good enough to carry the team almost to victory over the Chiefs, despite pretty much no defense, why get away from that type of offense?
Are there times when the play-calling should be run heavy? Absolutely! The Dallas defense was selling out against the pass, while daring us to beat them with the run. You run the ball all day against a defense like that. I want the OL and RBs to be good enough to punish that particular type of defensive misbehavior.
It's one thing to run the ball all day against a defense like that. And it's another thing to take the ball out of your best player's hands, in order to run James Cook up the middle for a 3 yard gain. I recall that Brady called slightly more running plays than passing plays. That's the wrong ratio. A lower octane offense. If he was doing that as a temporary measure, due to Allen playing hurt, or Diggs fading down the stretch, fine. I can respect that. But if he genuinely wants to run the ball at least as often as he passes, then he's the wrong OC and needs to be replaced.
To be fair, the league has changed since 2020 (our actual best offensive season) and 2021. Defenses are playing more conservatively to limit big plays. We also see a lot less defensive penalties. Trying to pass like it's 2021 into that might not yield the results you expect.
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/
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If you count Diggs dead money, the Bills are spending ~17% of their cap on WR (depends on final roster). That's more than any other position, including QB.
Flat out, if you don't like the WR room right now...it's mostly a Diggs thing.
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3 minutes ago, FireChans said:
all we need is the best defense in football putting together a dominant postseason run. Got it. Good plan.
Or, we can just completely forget defense and spend all our money and draft picks on WR...we will definitely win the
fantasy football championshipsuper bowl then -
14 minutes ago, Billl said:
These aren’t three identical products though. A better (but still terrible) analogy in a similar vein would be that you’re choosing from three paintings at an estate sale. They all look equally nice to you, but the best art dealer in the world is offering you $20 to cut in front of you in line because he thinks one of them is a Picasso.
Even if you don’t know which one that is, you’re probably better off declining the $20 and hoping to get lucky. You can’t tell them apart, but you can be pretty sure that if there is an actual masterpiece in the bunch, it’s going to be gone after that art dealer makes his selection. And oh by the way, three more guys got to cut in front of you as well. At this point, you’re hoping that you either get lucky and all of the guys who cut the line make bad choices or that you get really lucky and every painting at the sale turns out to be worth millions. It’s just a bad strategy.
Are you really trying to say that KC WR evaluators are better than Buffalo's?
In the last 5 years, the Bills drafted Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir out of 4 picks with none in the first three rounds.
The Chiefs, in those same 5 years, Drafted Rice, Moore and Powell (two of them on day 2)
Not exactly killing it to the point Id be worried they knew something we didn't. But the point remains that the BILLS had them graded the same and potentially would have taken Coleman at 28 anyway. There is nothing indicating that he wasn't #1 for them in that tier...
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14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
😂😂You want to talk to me about silly logic and then say buying phones from some rando shows you care about phones lmfaoo
If I cared about phones I'd already have one
Fine...you go to the store and go to buy literally anything. There are multiple options that are only different colors of said item. Because of the color, some are more expensive than others.
Buying the cheaper one because you don't care about the color doesn't mean you don't care about the thing you bought (or maybe you even prefer the cheaper color)
You can laugh all you want, but this is pretty much how every team runs their board. They focus on positions and tiers, not on players. Sure, they might have favorites...but focusing on them and taking them before their grade is amateur hour.
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18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
I think it's more than possible, it's very likely
I'm not arguing that it wasn't the right move, just that it shouldn't be held up as proof of this serious investment in offensive weapons
That's such silly logic...
Unless you can definitively say that Worthy or Legette was significantly higher on their board, the idea that they were focused on a position more so than a player says the complete OPPOSITE of what you are saying. They prioritized the position, not a player.
If somebody came to you and said "Here are three Iphones...A black one, a white one and a gold one. If you pick your color first, you get no rebate. If you take what is left, you get $200 off" and you took the $200, you might not care about colors but you clearly DO care about phones.
16 hours ago, HappyDays said:I supported both the trade back and drafting Coleman. Exactly what happened was literally my dream scenario. Still I do not think WR was sufficiently addressed this offseason. In fact that's two years in a row that the Bills took my draft crush with their first pick. Still I wish they had done more.
For me the individual moves are secondary to the larger philosophy. My personal player preferences are just opinions. The idea that the Bills need to overinvest in pass catchers is, to me, a cold hard fact. I would have rather taken Worthy followed by Franklin than just Coleman alone, even though I liked Coleman better than both of those players, because the first scenario would have represented what I KNOW to be a necessary change in the teambuilding philosophy. Instead I fear this regime has learned nothing and is stubbornly continuing to prioritize the wrong positions.
I think they just did it a different way...several new faces at WR that are 28 or less and former high picks.
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9 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:
Agree it comes down to likelihoods, but I would say we dont have a ton of data on how likely many of these things are. There would be points and counter points that are both unknown (how much squatting in the middle vs allens arm scaring them is a good example).
To your last point about getting more WR production than projected I think there is pretty significant data to say that will happen. Beasley, Brown, Diggs all had career years and outproduced expectations after their move. If I could guess your counter point (and its one of those unknowns), they are coming in with low expectations so beating those doesnt necessarily mean we have a good offense (even though we expect to out perform those expectations).
God Hamler flying so far under the radar. Don't know what to make of him, but if hes over injuries he brings supreme speed and playmaking ability.
I thought about listing him, too...but I'm not trying to give more unnecessary ammo to the "he's unproven" crowd. I saw him play plenty at Penn State, and he is about as explosive as they come. I think he is a bit more unlikely because of his injury history and moreso because his hands are inconsistent...but he is another guy in the same vein that could explode in the right circumstances.
Further proves the point, though....there are several talented players on the Bills offense. For whatever reason, they have not been able to turn that in to careers worthy of that talent so far. Glass half full thinks this is the year for at least a few of them...glass half empty thinks it isn't.
what I don't get is why there are so many glass half empty fans on a Bills message board. If you are that frustrated in the offseason, why even be a fan in the first place? Perhaps you need to take a look at yourselves in the mirror and check your pride at the door.
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On 7/14/2024 at 12:14 PM, GoBills808 said:
Not to the extent they'll be required, no
Curtis Samuel has some of the best win rates in the entire NFL.
Listen, I get it...everyone is looking for reasons the Bills will fail again, and WR is the whipping boy this year like MLB was the whipping boy last season.
There is a difference between incapable and unproven. The Bills have SEVERAL talented receiving options drafted in the first two rounds of the draft in the last decade. Coleman was basically a first rounder. Kincaid, Claypool, Cook and Samuel are all high draft picks and highly skilled players that have had success in the NFL. None of them have been stars, sure, but none of them have really gotten that opportunity yet, either. Add in guys like Shakir and MVS who have a bit less pedigree, but have produced in limited capacity, and you have a roster full of maybes. Is that ideal? Probably not...but IMO you are putting WAY too much weight on proven/notproven
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His style is definitely unorthodox...it reminds me a bit of Stevie, who also was a basketball guy. Gotta love the ball skills, tho.
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On 6/29/2024 at 1:20 PM, BullBuchanan said:
So, this post is all about you talking umbrage with my use of the word "pedigree"?
Fine, I'll rephrase. Lee Evans would be the best WR on the 2024 roster.He would also represent our highest pick since 2019.
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4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I guess my point is...
OK, tell the truth...what did you think of Terrel Bernard when he played for Milano in the 11-6-20 close loss to the Jets? I had an opinion based on that, and never in 1000 years did I expect what we saw from him last season.
There's also Shakir, I thought he took a huge step last season.
You do You, but professional scouts and coaches watching a player in his rookie year may be totally mistaken about what his ceiling is, so, if you are so clear on that from one season of a player....should you be?
No argument at all that the WR going into 2018 was putrid (and 2017 was no better for that matter) , but of course the idea in 2017 was to run the wheels off McCoy and dump off to Charles Clay, and I think McDermott and Beane's expectation going into 2018 was similar. The problem, of course, was 1) the OL was much worse and couldn't run block worth *****, and 2) that apparently wasn't Daboll's ideaThat's the real problem, here...Bills fans don't trust the Admin, so they assume the worst. Just like at LB last year.
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46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
It's pretty easy to search the Matthews trade thread. FWIW he liked the Matthews trade. Which sparked a debate with @dave mcbride. A lot of people liked Matthews because his numbers were legit bottom-third of league WR1 average over his 3 year career. And they also got a 3rd round pick in the deal(which even more people loved because they were just CERTAIN....and dead wrong......that the Bills were tanking).
And people were high as a kite for Zay Jones coming off a 158 reception 1746 yard senior season at East Carolina. He was a post-season draft process superstar as well.
Your perception is clouded by hindsight.
Nobody thought the 2017 Bills WR corps was good but a lot of people felt you didn't need a WR1 back in those days. That's not the case anymore..........we know how important WR talent is in the current NFL.........though some Bills fans have tried to re-frame that now that we don't have a WR1.
We don't have a proven #1
We also don't have any guys that have gotten #1 targets. Your argument might be that they've never been good enough to earn those targets, but Im not sure I agree. There was a point in time where Chase Claypool was the next big thing. At 6'4 240 with a 4.4 40 and 40 inch vertical, he is a freak athlete.
Ive already discussed Samuel on here. Shakir led the NFL in efficiency last season, and only got better with more targets at the end of the season. Coleman is super young and was a two sport athlete at Michigan freaking state. Like, a point guard for a team that competes for national championships...and we make fun of his athleticism and call him a "big slot" which is just code for slow.
What this all really comes down to, IMO, is trust. Bills fans on this board don't trust the GM and they don't trust the coaches. Especially at WR. So the glass is half empty.
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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Matthews had played 46 of 48 career games. So having played 96% of his teams games he had averaged 58 yards per game. There wasn't any extrapolating to do. I was just pointing out that the league plays 17 games now.....not 16 like back then. And he did that as WR1 for the Eagles in 2015 and 2016. Facing the opponents best CB's.
You were extrapolating a small, cherry picked sample size as a 3rd or 4th option in the passing game and ignoring the larger portion of his career. The reality is that Shakir's career production is just 24.9 yards per game. Even last year it was just 35.9. And with Diggs and Davis gone.........there is a likelihood that Shakir draws tougher CB matchups now as well.
First, I was talking about Curtis Samuel, not Shakir.
Second, I wasn't "cherry picking" I was using his lone season working with Joe Brady. I even accounted for regression. honestly, It wasn't even really about Samuel (or Shakir), it's more about Diggs. Two of his 4 seasons in Buffalo he had a YPT at or below 7.5. That is not good for an outside receiver, and it is REALLY not good for a guy you are targeting 160 times.
Was Diggs 2020 awesome? Yes. Was his 2022, after he rededicated himself and gained some muscle in the wake of 13 seconds almost as good? Yes. But 2021 and definitely 2023...not as much. He got top 10 in the NFL targets and returned top 50 production. To act like Curtis Samuel couldn't do something like that with that many targets is just silly.
The reason the responses in this thread bothered me is because most of them talked about how Samuel "isn't talented" or "isn't in the same league" but that's just ridiculous. Unproven, injury prone, whatever...I get those arguments. But while opportunity and talent are often correlated, there isn't always a causal relationship there. In fact, that has ALWAYS been the deal when it comes to Curtis Samuel. Several OCs, bad QBs, several young WR in the room, bad injury timing.
All I am saying is, his production to this point is not a true indicator of who he is...all you have to do is watch him play to see that. Go to a Panther or Commander board and ask about him.
As for Matthews...his YPT were TRASH. And can we please stop with the "he was #1 so he got the #1 corner" like that is a thing? Most teams don't have their corners follow guys these days, and lots of "#1" receivers get snaps out of the slot.
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13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
That 2017 group they broke camp with was gross.
But this WR group they have now is bottom 3 in the NFL and I'm not sure even the 2017 season opener Bills WR corps ranked that low.
To put it in perspective.......Jordan Matthews had played 46 of 48 career games.......his 3 year average was 58 yards per game......which projects to 986 yards per season in a 17 game season.
I hated his skillset but you were probably one of those shouting me down about it that summer.
But regardless........the Bills have nothing anywhere close to 58 yards per game career now.
Curtis Samuel is WR1 and averaged a relatively meager 38 yards per game the last two years and missed most of 2021.
Zay Jones? 4th WR off the board. Coleman? 8th.
So it's debatable and after they picked up Benjamin they had acquired a guy who was on a 1,000 yard type pace that season.
Keep in mind though, that 2017 was a real low point for receiving talent around the NFL.
After two terrible WR drafts in 2015-2016 only 15 players total accumulated 1,000 yards receiving.
Most years recently before and since that the numbers have been in the low to high 20's each season.
From 2018 to 2024 it's been one tremendous WR class after the next.
The QB position is A LOT deeper too.
So now you need A LOT more talent at the top of your WR corps to measure up.
And here I thought you aren't allowed to extrapolate rates...
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This thread is depressing.
it reminds me a lot of the linebacker threads from last season.
I realize they are heading into this season without a lot of production at WR. If that is what you are using to measure how good their WR core is, I guess I get why you are down on them.
But the amount of potential they have at wideout this season is WAY higher than any recent season, and for significantly less money. Shakir and Samuel have elite advanced analytics, but are low on production due to targets so their numbers aren’t good. MVS and Claypool are probably the best HWS guys the Bills have had since TO was here. Coleman was a top recruit in two sports…I think his athleticism and potential should be obvious.
some of you are too focused on production. You are equating that to talent. But production is a trailing indicator, not a leading one.
forget the numbers for a second and go watch some of these guys play. They ARE talented…probably more talented than any WR group we have had in recent memory.
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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:
There's a wide gulf between "Curtis Samuel sucks" and "Curtis Samuel is as good as Stefon Diggs." Everyone else on this board falls somewhere in between that. You're the only one sitting at one extreme.
I said, and I quote “give me one reason Curtis Samuel can’t be Stef Diggs in this offense”
Instead of reasons, I got jokes, baseless opinions and all kinds of other garbage. No real discussion. But of course, what did I expect…if you all are honest with yourselves you don’t know anything about Curtis Samuel beyond his stats and what you read or saw in highlights.
here is what I know FOR A FACT. He is the same size as Diggs, he is extremely explosive, he has had success in the NFL playing running back, slot receiver and flanker, and he has never played with a decent qb since his rookie year.
so maybe he isn’t as good as Diggs, but the only proof of that are stats… not even rate stats, but cumulative stats.
Here’s a stat for you…last season Diggs had like 1200 yards on 160 targets. With Josh Allen as his QB.
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7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Like I said, Curtis Samuel is a good journeyman WR.
As you noted, he has also missed a lot of games injured......27 games.....in his career.
That's why Samuel has averaged just 480 yards per season in 7 long years in the NFL.
What you perceived that he was 8 years ago in college is a lot less important than what he's done since then.
I'm no Gabe Davis fan but Davis has averaged 683 yards per season in HIS career.
So yeah, they haven't been comparable producers and that's why Davis got paid a lot more.
Journeyman? He’s 27. He’s pretty much the same age Diggs was when he came to Buffalo.
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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:
After Gabe Davis 4 TD playoff game did you presume that he would just become a superstar with more targets?
That's what @HappyDays is talking about.
Giving Gabe more targets lead to diminishing returns in 2022.
His catch % dropped, his passer rating plummeted 20 points and 50% more targets tripled the amount of interceptions thrown his direction.
Samuel is a good, journeyman WR. A really good WR3. 7 years of film and stats to prove what he can and can't do.
His best season in the NFL(under Joe Brady) he was WR3 getting WR3 CB matchups.
Part of the reason "the extrapolaters" were wrong about Gabe Davis was that his skillset didn't allow him to get open against CB1's and CB2's. So when he got elevated, he got worse.
Gabe Davis and Curtis Samuel are nothing alike.
Gabe Davis was a fourth round pick I had never heard of coming out of college. He had a limited skill set and inconsistent hands.
Curtis Samuel was a star in college. He only dropped to the second round because he was a bit of a tweener. He has played with trash QBs, not Josh Allen. He missed a whole season due to injury, and his 2019 was just as good as his 2020, he just had a terrible quarterback who couldnt get him the ball after Cam got hurt.
i get it, you all think he is a number three because of stuff like fantasy football, surface stats and the like. Maybe you should go back and watch the commanders vs bills. Watch him beat our corners only to have Howell get sacked over and over or throw picks.
its funny, I thought I was on a Bills board, but I guess it’s cooler to be a pessimist around here. Get on the WR suck train or you’re a homer
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I'm glad you all have jokes...gonna save this thread for later.
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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
That isn't how statistics work.
Sure it is...it is called extrapolation.
Sure, there could be some regression if his target share increased, but I don't think projecting 8 ypt is wild. At 160 targets, he would put up 1300 yards.
Here's what I know...your opinion is based on A) never really watching him play and B) historical stats with no context.
I am trying to project who he could be on the Bills, not who he was. You have presented no evidence to dispute my claim aside from "talent" and you didn't even quantify it.
Do you not see how "Diggs is more talented because of his numbers" and "Diggs has better numbers because he is more talented" is completely circular???
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
The Bills are going to throw the ball like 550 times. Our current receiver core didn't have nearly that many targets last year, so SOMEBODY is gonna get more targets. If you project normal increases for their roles and use their average YPT, you're looking at 4500 yards. That's assuming some positive and negative regression.
That's not a feeling, it is basic math. So unless you think that these WR are so bad that they can't even crack 7 YPT in an increased role with Josh Allen as the QB...you're overreacting.