Mikey152
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Posts posted by Mikey152
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On 3/23/2018 at 1:32 PM, MJS said:
That's about how I feel about Josh Allen too. In fact, I'm pretty confused why anyone likes him.
He's the biggest, strongest, smartest Quarterback in the draft. It's not that hard to figure out if you are willing to project these guys a little.
Clearly these projection things factor college performance pretty highly...go figure the last two Heisman winners finish at the top.
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2 minutes ago, foreboding said:
Wilson
2016 - 64.7% Rating 95.4
2017 - 61.3% Rating: 92.6
Favre 62% Career
Brady, is he accurate you think? 63.9% career
Skill competition, lol. Yep that is how we should judge superbowl winning QB's
No, lets base it on completion percentage...probably the most useless stat a QB can generate. And better yet, lets arbitrarily set a number like 60% as the cutoff then use confirmation bias to establish it as the end-all-be-all of success. Oh, and lets correlate it to accuracy even though it is almost totally independent.
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3 minutes ago, foreboding said:
Wilson is VERY accurate and so was Favre. Elway was a winner and played in an era when you could get the ball downfield more consistently. Not to mention you just listed three QB's with legendary will to win attitudes. Hard to measure that for a draft.
So, because you say it I'm just supposed to take it at face value?
Did you see Wilson at this year's skill competition? Accurate my ass.
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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:
65.4% career.
Do you think Cam is an accurate passer, though? Because he's not. At all. Super streaky. But he has a great arm and makes plays lots of other guys can't make.
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Just now, BuffaloRebound said:
I'm not seeing accuracy issues. Most of his throws were tight window throws right on the money against Iowa in a game where if you just look at his completion percentage, you'd think he struggled with accuracy and was throwing the ball all over the place.
That's kind of my point...it's lazy journalism based mostly on numbers, then gets repeated in "scouting reports" and on message boards.
When you actually watch him throw a football in games and in shorts, it's clear he is talented. Maybe he isn't Drew Brees accurate, but he's not Blake Bortles bad, either.
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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
LMAO
EJ Manuel - 6'5, 237 pounds, 4.65 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
Kyle Boller - 6'4, 234 pounds, 4.65 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
Josh Freeman - 6'6, 248 pounds, 4.9 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
Jake Locker - 6'3, 231 pounds, 4.59 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
The fact that he's 6'5, 230 with some mobility doesn't matter if he can't throw accurate passes consistently.
What matter is if he can consistently move the chains with short accurate passes. That's what all elite NFL QBs do, and have done in the past.Whether or not he can throw the ball 40 yards on a rope while on the run or 80 yards in the air is irrelevant. It's the other 98% of the passes he makes that dictate success.
4 guys...huge sample size. and we already talked about EJ. Not to mention the fact that the statement "huge arm" is complete bull ****. I could name you 50 quarterbacks who are 6'2" and "Accurate" with insane college numbers that flopped.
And Josh Freeman made a pro bowl. He was a good quarterback in the NFL at one point and considered a future star before it all came crashing down for whatever reason. Not exactly a great comp.
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6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Ugh.
I don't see any basis that Allen could become the "best QB in the game" when all of the best QBs in the history of the NFL had elite pin point accuracy.
Brady, Marino, Montana, Brees, Manning, Kelly, Aikman, Elway, etc - all supremely accurate passers until late in their careers. Aside from maybe Marino and Elway's arm strength, Allen is nothing like any of them.
And Allen's floor is unbelievably low. Think EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, JP Losman, etc, out of the NFL after 5 years low...
Elway had a career completion percentage of 56.9 and was NEVER considered "pinpoint" accurate, ever...Neither was Favre. Both are all-time greats. Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and I don't think anyone would say accuracy is he best trait. But sure, lets revise history to support your narrative.
Do you know who IS "accurate"? Nathan Peterman
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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:
Those are the guys he looks like. His ability as a passer isn't anywhere close to the players you mentioned.
None of them came out of college with scouts questioning their accuracy.
There is literally no history of success for guys like Allen over the past 20 years. None.
Ah yes, because NFL history is littered with smart 6'5 230 lb quarterbacks who run 4.8 40s and can throw the football 80+ yards.
This is my whole point. Josh Allen himself has said he is more accurate than his stats show, and when given an opportunity to prove it on a level playing field he did. But the narrative remains. We will see, I guess. It's not like you will have to eat crow when you are wrong.
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Just now, jrober38 said:
Inaccurate QBs get drafted in the first round all the time, and they all bust.
Just because someone is a first round pick doesn't mean they're any good.
EJ Manuel looked great at the Senior Bowl. Colossal bust in the NFL.
Jake Locker looked good at the Senior Bowl. Colossal bust in the NFL.
Guys with accuracy problems don't succeed in the NFL. There hasn't been a guy with accuracy problems to become a Franchise QB in at least the past 20 years.
EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Kyle Boller. The list of strong, mobile, big armed QBs who flamed out in the NFL is long and full of nothing bust guys who were complete busts.
Accuracy is the most important trait when it comes to being a successful NFL QB. I have no idea why NFL scouts continuously ignore it, but Allen doesn't have adequate accuracy to become a top QB.Do people ever even think for themselves anymore, or is it just parroting things they hear?
Josh Allen is nothing like EJ Manuel. EJ had a super weird delivery and just looked awkward throwing a football. It was clear to see he wasn't a natural passer. You should be comparing him to guys like Roethlisberger, Stafford and Flacco...because those are the guys he is most like.
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Just now, MAJBobby said:
Sub 60% college QBs do not succeed in modern NFL
That's a blanket statement...I would agree that a sub-60% spread quarterback from a major school is someone to be avoided.
Josh Allen is neither.
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5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
The issue isn't completion percentage. The issue is that the ball routinely misses its target.
Read any Josh Allen scouting report and they all say the same thing; he's not an accurate passer.
Sometimes he misses high, sometimes low, sometimes he's behind, and sometimes he's too far out front. Good luck correcting those problems. I've watched a lot of videos on Josh Allen, and he misses routine throws all the time. He makes throws within 10 yards of the LOS look challenging.
Also - I couldn't care less about how he looked throwing the ball in shorts against no defense at the combine. EJ Manuel and Jake Locker looked good at the combine. Then they got to the NFL and their accuracy was just as horrible as it was in college.
Again, context. There is a difference between hitting a target and knowing where that target should be. Both have an impact on "accuracy," though...Luke Falk is considered accurate because he is a great anticipatory thrower, for example. But it was clear that all things being equal he cant hit the broad side of a barn, especially at distance.
And I am pretty sure there is a defense at the senior bowl. Those scouting reports said Josh Allen doesn't have touch, but at the senior bowl he made a perfect bucket throw for a TD.
Yes, you have to project a guy like Josh Allen. That's the NFL front office guys job...But it's not like he came out of nowhere. He's been on the radar for two years despite the fact that he was playing at a garbage school. If he really was as inaccurate as you claim, there's no way that happens.
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17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Agreed.
You don't trade the farm for a guy with major accuracy issues just because he can throw a football 80 yards.
Allen is a long shot of being successful. Rosen, Darnold and Rosen all have significantly higher floors and almost as much upside.
I feel like the accuracy thing is significantly overrated; especially when most of the bias is based on something as trivial and multi-variable as completion percentage.
In two situations where you are able to make a somewhat apples-to-apples comparison, the senior bowl and the combine, Josh Allen was among the most accurate Quarterbacks there. At the combine specifically he looked like a man amongst boys and it wasn't just the distance but the ball placement as well.
Bottom line is he doesn't just throw hard. If that was the case, he wouldn't be a top prospect. He is talented. His "accuracy" issues have more to do with anticipation and timing than anything wrong with his arm or mechanics. You know, the kinds of stuff better coaching and teammates can possibly fix.
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I think Poyer is the weak link but between Hyde, Darby, White and Seymour I feel decent about the rest of the secondary. Rex's system was so, so bad that he left the secondary exposed. Darby will bounce back.
I would worry more about the depth than Poyer...He's a smooth athlete, played corner at an all-american level in college, and is, by all accounts, a heady player. He's not an all-pro or anything, but he can contribute. Additionally, it's fairly clear he was targeted as a free agent...so clearly the staff sees him as a fit.
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That's probably the area I'm most unsure about. I like Ryan Davis but, after him, it's unproven guys, rookies and a former Arena Leaguer.
Curse you not being healthy, Scott Crichton!!!!
I don't know...if you include Alexander in that mix both in the case of injury and as a pass-rush specialist, It's not a bad group. You aren't going to dress more than 4 or 5 in a given week anyway.
Aaron Schatz: 2018 QB Boom and Bust Projections with QBASE
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Mikey152
You don't agree with what?
He is the biggest and strongest. That's not an opinion. He is also one of the fastest and most athletic outside of Lamar Jackson. Also a fact. He scored the highest of the major QBs on the wonderlich test...And he clearly has the strongest arm. His accuracy isn't nearly as bad purported, either.
So again, it's not hard to see why he is a top prospect.
Jamarcus Russell was a lazy idiot. All they have in common is the arm. It's a terrible comp.
So is EJ Manual. EJ has a GREAT completion percentage in college and a super wonky delivery.
Everybody wants Baker Mayfield to be Russell Wilson, but he is nowhere near Wilson physically. And he isn't nearly as smart as Brees. Not to mention all the other predictability issues...he could easily be Troy Smith.