Mikey152
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Posts posted by Mikey152
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5 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:
Little things like that are parts that were over looked by folks like my self who was a massive anti-Allen guy leading up to the draft. Thank you for posting this! I'm coming around.
The fact of the matter is, Allen's numbers on third down look remarkably similar to Rosen's. The big difference in their stats is that Rosen threw the ball 213 times on first down, and completed 141 (66.2%) for 1942 yards and 15/4. Allen attempted 90(!) first down throws, completed 56 (62.2%) for 723 yards and 9/2.
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1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Allen is anything but an analytics pick. He's an old school scouting pick based on projection/measurables over production/analytics and I'm not sure why you called out Simmons because he didn't author the piece.
How is past performance "analytics" any more advanced analysis than things like release time, ball velocity, etc? Especially when performance based metrics are completely interdependent?
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For all you Stat lovers out there...
On 3rd down and 7-9 yards (aka the money down/distance for quarterbacks) in 2017
Player A: 10/24 for 132 yards and a pick. 8 first downs.
Player B: 13/22 for 124 yards and a TD. 7 first downs.
Player C: 15/22 for 236 yards and a TD. 10 first downs.
Player D: 16/28 for 162 yards and a TD. 10 first downs.
Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen....and that doesn't even factor in running.
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
This isn't true. His first year the stats put Tyrod as top 10, but the past 2 years they showed him for exactly who he was - an inconsistent and below average NFL QB. Analytics and stats do have value and overall they paint an accurate picture. But there isn't a ton of data that suggests college stats translate to the pros so we can only work with the film that we have.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21251222/the-great-debate-buffalo-bills-quarterback-tyrod-taylor
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Well, I guess we should have just drafted JT Barrett...after all, he was rated higher than Allen, Darnold and Rosen by PFF. Better yet, we should have just kept Tyrod Taylor...his analytics show he is a top half of the NFL quarterback. Maybe even top 10.
Analytics have their place. But football isn't like other sports. Sample sizes are too small and it's impossible to control for all the variables. Not to mention most of these metrics are gathered via subjective analysis by people who have no business or experience grading "tape". It's a complete farce masquerading as "advanced intelligence". It's also full of confirmation bias, selected sets, and tons of other statistical no-no's designed to get clicks.
I see it as a way for people who don't have any real understanding of football and it's concepts to feel like they understand the game because they can relate more to stats.
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I have the same problem with fans and media guys that say they know more than the pros as I do with the "Advanced analytics" guys...
The problem is, both sets of people use the pros research to form the basis of their opinion, then go from there and act like they know more. In other words, if all you, Joe Fan/Joe media, had access to was game footage, measurements and live football (no websites, rankings lists, visit information, etc.) I don't think you would be anywhere close when it came to mock drafts. Just like how stats guys only apply their metrics once their data set has been selected for them via more conventional means...
It's easy to say you'd take Rosen over Allen when that's been pounded in to your head all year. But without all the draft hype, my guess is nobody even knows who Josh Allen is. They certainly wouldn't know about random third rounders.
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Some of you guys should google Antonio Brown's pre-draft scouting reports.
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Do you know who else was 5’10 190 with a 4.5 40 and primarily a return man?
Antonio Brown.
Dude was a stud running back in high school, and he runs with the ball like one. Also has great hands (watch his combine video). You could do a lot worse in the 6th round.
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Ive only seen him in highlights and against Pitt...but one thing I will say I like aside from the obvious size and athletic ability stuff is, he plays with solid fundamentals when doing things like tackling.
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He makes a pretty big assumption that it was because of Allen...and not their offensive line, receivers, etc. All this shows is that maybe they didn't trust their passing game...not their quarterback.
Not to mention the fact that he played in the Mountain West...aka not the south. There's this little thing called weather.
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What is Bill Belichick's quote again??? "Do your job..."
Yes, Quarterback is arguably the most important and hardest job on the field. Yes, tons of guys fail. But at the end of the day, it is still just a position on the team. It isn't the whole team by itself and it doesn't operate independently of teammates and coaches...so why does everyone seem hell-bent on evaluating it that way?
Just because a quarterback sucked in the NFL doesn't mean that scouting reports were wrong. Why is it that we say football is the ultimate team sport out of one side of our mouth, then proceed to pass judgement on individual players based on something totally non-contextual like basic rate metrics? Or even worse, wins and loses. For example, comparing efficiency metrics between a 4 year starter playing in a spread offense in the big 12 vs. a two year starter playing in a pro-style system in the big sky conference...how is that an apples to apples comparison? Or how about Tyrod Taylor having top 10 efficiency stats and making a pro-bowl?
It's not just quarterbacks, either. A few years back everyone thought our receivers were garbage outside of Sammy. But Robert Woods, Chris Hogan and Marquise Godwin proved that on the right team they were viable. That quartet on the same team would look downright dynamic today....assuming they were on a team conducive to their success.
And why is everyone saying Josh Allen has a low floor? Doesn't the fact that he is the best QB in the draft physically (and mentally if you go by wonderlic) mean he has the highest floor? Baker Mayfield isn't getting taller and Josh Rosen cant reverse his injury history and both of them have reps for being douchebags...those are low floors.
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3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:
lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.
You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.
I really don't know.
But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol.
I read it, and I have two major complaints...
A) Football statistics around player performance projection are silly when you try to apply real statistical analysis. Any statistician will tell you there are too many random variables and not nearly enough of a sample size to draw any real conclusions.
B) This was clearly written with bias based on that last model, where he complete negates the fact that variables like conference and offensive system have huge impacts on efficiency and explosiveness. The variation in quality of opponent, supporting cast and system varies WAY more widely in college football than in the pros. It's not exactly rocket science to deduce that the heisman trophy winner in a QB friendly, wide open spread offense from a terrible defensive conference has the best stats. It's also not a shock that a QB playing in a pro-style, downfield passing offense against generally superior competition has poor efficiency stats (and decent explosive plays).
My point is, these numbers should be used to evaluate a player against their own expected performance...not against each other. Football, in the end, is the ultimate team sport...yet, here we are, trying to break it down into individual performance with stats. It's a joke. Most of these "tools" have to use projected draft position (ie the eye test) to weed out quarterbacks that, per their stats, would be "awesome" in the NFL. Any tool that uses the tool it is supposedly trashing to establish its scope is just...dumb.
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4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:
You must not remember Boller too well then. While he may not have been the colossal bust Leaf or Jamarcus were, he was a bust just the same.
He was terrible!
I think you and I just have very different ideas of what a bust is, I guess. The truth is, he never really got a chance. He was replaced by McNair, Flacco and Palmer at various points in his career and only got one full season to prove himself, where it's not like he was a complete tire fire...he was just on a good, veteran team that didn't want to wait for him to develop.
This is what I don't like about football fans, media, etc. Everything is so black and white, when the reality is the game itself is far more gray and nuanced. Great prospects who become poor players aren't always on the scouts...and vice versa. Things like fit, heart, luck, injuries, etc...all of those have huge impacts on a players career, and they are almost impossible to scout. The best you can do is project best and worst case scenarios and make an educated guess.
Take this draft for example. There is no "best quarterback". Each team may value different traits. Tom Brady might not be Tom Brady on the Bills. Aaron Rodgers night have been garbage and out of the NFL if he didn't get to sit for three years. But nobody wants to look at nuance. They just say boom or bust and put it all on the draft. That's just stupid.
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11 minutes ago, JohnC said:
The different assessments on Allen is baffling. There is a camp that believes he is the next Roethlisberger and there is a camp that believes he is going to be a Kyle Boller type bust. I have seen projections where he could be the first qb off the board or a qb that teams are vying to get him.
Can't Gunner, Bandit and Bloke get together and come up with a consensus? Just hash it out and come to an agreement. I need to warn Gunner and Bloke that Bandito is pugnacious and that he will forcefully hold to his position that Allen is worth being the apple of one's eye. If you continue to disagree you will be in a bloody battle until you relent.
Kyle Boller isn't nearly the bust people make him out to be, especially as the 19th pick...JaMarcuss Russell or Ryan Leaf are more synonymous with bust
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5 minutes ago, MJS said:
That's your opinion and I don't agree. He has a strong arm. Just like JaMarcus Russel, huh?
You don't agree with what?
He is the biggest and strongest. That's not an opinion. He is also one of the fastest and most athletic outside of Lamar Jackson. Also a fact. He scored the highest of the major QBs on the wonderlich test...And he clearly has the strongest arm. His accuracy isn't nearly as bad purported, either.
So again, it's not hard to see why he is a top prospect.
Jamarcus Russell was a lazy idiot. All they have in common is the arm. It's a terrible comp.
So is EJ Manual. EJ has a GREAT completion percentage in college and a super wonky delivery.
Everybody wants Baker Mayfield to be Russell Wilson, but he is nowhere near Wilson physically. And he isn't nearly as smart as Brees. Not to mention all the other predictability issues...he could easily be Troy Smith.
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On 3/23/2018 at 1:32 PM, MJS said:
That's about how I feel about Josh Allen too. In fact, I'm pretty confused why anyone likes him.
He's the biggest, strongest, smartest Quarterback in the draft. It's not that hard to figure out if you are willing to project these guys a little.
Clearly these projection things factor college performance pretty highly...go figure the last two Heisman winners finish at the top.
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2 minutes ago, foreboding said:
Wilson
2016 - 64.7% Rating 95.4
2017 - 61.3% Rating: 92.6
Favre 62% Career
Brady, is he accurate you think? 63.9% career
Skill competition, lol. Yep that is how we should judge superbowl winning QB's
No, lets base it on completion percentage...probably the most useless stat a QB can generate. And better yet, lets arbitrarily set a number like 60% as the cutoff then use confirmation bias to establish it as the end-all-be-all of success. Oh, and lets correlate it to accuracy even though it is almost totally independent.
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3 minutes ago, foreboding said:
Wilson is VERY accurate and so was Favre. Elway was a winner and played in an era when you could get the ball downfield more consistently. Not to mention you just listed three QB's with legendary will to win attitudes. Hard to measure that for a draft.
So, because you say it I'm just supposed to take it at face value?
Did you see Wilson at this year's skill competition? Accurate my ass.
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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:
65.4% career.
Do you think Cam is an accurate passer, though? Because he's not. At all. Super streaky. But he has a great arm and makes plays lots of other guys can't make.
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Just now, BuffaloRebound said:
I'm not seeing accuracy issues. Most of his throws were tight window throws right on the money against Iowa in a game where if you just look at his completion percentage, you'd think he struggled with accuracy and was throwing the ball all over the place.
That's kind of my point...it's lazy journalism based mostly on numbers, then gets repeated in "scouting reports" and on message boards.
When you actually watch him throw a football in games and in shorts, it's clear he is talented. Maybe he isn't Drew Brees accurate, but he's not Blake Bortles bad, either.
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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
LMAO
EJ Manuel - 6'5, 237 pounds, 4.65 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
Kyle Boller - 6'4, 234 pounds, 4.65 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
Josh Freeman - 6'6, 248 pounds, 4.9 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
Jake Locker - 6'3, 231 pounds, 4.59 forty, huge arm - COLOSSAL BUST
The fact that he's 6'5, 230 with some mobility doesn't matter if he can't throw accurate passes consistently.
What matter is if he can consistently move the chains with short accurate passes. That's what all elite NFL QBs do, and have done in the past.Whether or not he can throw the ball 40 yards on a rope while on the run or 80 yards in the air is irrelevant. It's the other 98% of the passes he makes that dictate success.
4 guys...huge sample size. and we already talked about EJ. Not to mention the fact that the statement "huge arm" is complete bull ****. I could name you 50 quarterbacks who are 6'2" and "Accurate" with insane college numbers that flopped.
And Josh Freeman made a pro bowl. He was a good quarterback in the NFL at one point and considered a future star before it all came crashing down for whatever reason. Not exactly a great comp.
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6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Ugh.
I don't see any basis that Allen could become the "best QB in the game" when all of the best QBs in the history of the NFL had elite pin point accuracy.
Brady, Marino, Montana, Brees, Manning, Kelly, Aikman, Elway, etc - all supremely accurate passers until late in their careers. Aside from maybe Marino and Elway's arm strength, Allen is nothing like any of them.
And Allen's floor is unbelievably low. Think EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, JP Losman, etc, out of the NFL after 5 years low...
Elway had a career completion percentage of 56.9 and was NEVER considered "pinpoint" accurate, ever...Neither was Favre. Both are all-time greats. Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and I don't think anyone would say accuracy is he best trait. But sure, lets revise history to support your narrative.
Do you know who IS "accurate"? Nathan Peterman
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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:
Those are the guys he looks like. His ability as a passer isn't anywhere close to the players you mentioned.
None of them came out of college with scouts questioning their accuracy.
There is literally no history of success for guys like Allen over the past 20 years. None.
Ah yes, because NFL history is littered with smart 6'5 230 lb quarterbacks who run 4.8 40s and can throw the football 80+ yards.
This is my whole point. Josh Allen himself has said he is more accurate than his stats show, and when given an opportunity to prove it on a level playing field he did. But the narrative remains. We will see, I guess. It's not like you will have to eat crow when you are wrong.
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Just now, jrober38 said:
Inaccurate QBs get drafted in the first round all the time, and they all bust.
Just because someone is a first round pick doesn't mean they're any good.
EJ Manuel looked great at the Senior Bowl. Colossal bust in the NFL.
Jake Locker looked good at the Senior Bowl. Colossal bust in the NFL.
Guys with accuracy problems don't succeed in the NFL. There hasn't been a guy with accuracy problems to become a Franchise QB in at least the past 20 years.
EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Kyle Boller. The list of strong, mobile, big armed QBs who flamed out in the NFL is long and full of nothing bust guys who were complete busts.
Accuracy is the most important trait when it comes to being a successful NFL QB. I have no idea why NFL scouts continuously ignore it, but Allen doesn't have adequate accuracy to become a top QB.Do people ever even think for themselves anymore, or is it just parroting things they hear?
Josh Allen is nothing like EJ Manuel. EJ had a super weird delivery and just looked awkward throwing a football. It was clear to see he wasn't a natural passer. You should be comparing him to guys like Roethlisberger, Stafford and Flacco...because those are the guys he is most like.
The Ringer: How the 2018 Draft Proved That the Modern NFL Doesn’t Exist
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
You're making an assumption based on little actual evidence. What evidence, aside from statistics which we are clearly demonstrating are multi-variable, is there that Allen cant handle the mental aspects? He set his own protections, took snaps from under center and has a developed play action game. What other QB in this class can say that?