Mikey152
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Posts posted by Mikey152
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1 hour ago, NoSaint said:
its wild to watch him argue definitions but have it fly by him that you can state that someone factually has a stated opinion on the subject.
that he ranked them 28 is a fact. That opinion was derived from whatever analysis he made of the various groups.
Fly by me? Of course it is a fact he wrote that...the ranking is the opinion.
Not sure this is the gotcha you think it is...I never debated that Warren Sharp ranked them 28th...clearly he did.
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Well, the full movie is up...It is even weirder than the trailer.
Might still buy a tshirt, tho
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12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Um, it is a fact that Warren Sharp ranked them 28th. That it his opinion. Both are true. His opinion is based on his analysis of data (like a scientist).
My perspective and expectation is Super Bowl appearances. Their point differential and 40 straight games without a loss over 6 points supports that. I spend hundreds of hours a year and tens of thousands of dollars annually on this team. My commitment isn’t in question. I hold them to the standard that they should be held to. In 2017, I was thrilled with a playoff appearance. In 2023, I was not thrilled with another Divisional Round loss.
Do you think maybe that frustration might have some influence on your opinion?
Also, for the record...that's not how scientific method works. If it were scientific, according to his observations his hypothesis would be the Bills are 28th best based on whatever his criteria is, and the season would would either confirm or deny it.
Either way, a hypothesis is really just an informed guess. If a scientist were to claim his hypothesis is correct without testing it, he isnt much of a scientist
Just curious what you think of all the twitter notes from practice today...guess it's time to start worrying about the defense if they can't shut these scrubs down, huh?
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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I keep using talent, pedigree and production. Justin Shorter was the number 3 WR recruit in the country.https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/justin-shorter-17797?view=pv I’d put that in the pedigree category. His production in college would probably say that his talent was a little overrated. The production isn’t good. He would be 1 out of 3. Production trumps all.
Objectively, would be the “not influenced by personal feelings” definition. Feel free to look it up. There is no bias in my analysis of this group. It is an emotionless opinion. When I discuss the Bills on this thread I try to provide OBJECTIVE analysis.
I know what the difference between objective and subjective is…I am a scientist.
If you can put “I think” “We think” or “he thinks” in front of what you are saying, it’s an opinion. THAT is a fact.
“I think the Bills receivers will be terrible in 2024”
”Warren sharp thinks the Bills are the 28th best receiver group”
Neither of these are facts. They are opinions. To make them objective, you would need to say something like “Based on historical production, the Buffalo Bills have the 28th least productive WR group in the NFL. Teams with historically poor production from WR are often unsuccessful” That could be a fact, I guess. But you’ll notice the distinction…it only talks about what has happened (ie facts) not on what will happen (ie opinion)
the reason your post isn’t a fact is because there are exceptions to everything you claim. Exceptions that have been pointed out countless times in this thread. You and your ilk continuously choose to not acknowledge this bias in your findings.
they have a term for that…it’s called confirmation bias.what is fascinating to me about all of this is most of us are Bills fans. The thing I am leaving this thread with isn’t even anything about the receivers…it’s really about fan frustration. Between the receivers, the coaches, the FO…there are quite a few bitter fans out there.
Honestly, that amazes me. During the drought, I totally got it. I probably even get wrapped up in it. “You” are so focused on a SB you started hating the thing you love. The truth is, it probably won’t even get better if and when they do win. It will never be enough, because the problem isn’t the players or the coaches or the FO…it’s you and your perspective on football and life.
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54 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Any scheme designed to have Josh Allen as a role player, fits right into what other teams want. The Bills playing to “run the ball and stop the run” is an opponent’s dream. This team, as currently constructed, needs to be the Josh Allen show. The Bills don’t have the pieces around him that other winning teams do. The top of the Bills roster is very weak comparatively.
The starting 5 being “workable” isn’t impressive. You need a guy(s) at the top of the depth chart that teams fear!! They have a top 10 TE and 4 WRs that would be number 3’s in most offenses (no one higher than WR 4 in Houston or Chicago). The Bills have assembled a group of pass catchers, that one of the most respected, data-driven, football minds, ranked as the 28th best group. Why would anyone defend that?
It’s okay to want them to succeed. That’s what we all want. Looking at it objectively though, it isn’t a good group compared to their peers. With Josh Allen, in his prime, that’s a mistake. I don’t think any reasonable person could argue that they are good enough there. At best, you hope that some of the lottery tickets are winners. At worst, you have a bunch of WRs that can’t get open and make plays. Josh Allen will need to be Superman to have this team competing for the playoffs. Thats a failure of roster management.
I was going to write a long post, but I guess I have a simpler question for you…
What makes a football player better or worse than another football player, in your mind? Their draft slot, their production, their size, their 40 time? When you say “objectively” what exactly do you mean, because all I have seen is subjectivity.
if we can leave this thread agreeing on anything, it should be the fact that ANYBODYS take on where the Bills WR rank in a season that hasn’t even happened yet is 100% subjective (ie an opinion) supported by whatever objective facts they deem appropriate (thus making it subjective).
Because it is subjective…it can also be (shocker) wrong. And it happens A LOT in football. Like more than people are right if we are being honest. So why be so pressed?
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46 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I think that the biggest divide in this thread is the “possibility” of this group performing well vs. the “likelihood” of them playing well. Someone earlier said that Peterman could outperform Mahomes. He certainly could. Justin Shorter could have 2,000 yards receiving. Those of us skeptical of the receiving room are looking at the likelihood. This group, on paper, is one of the worst in the league. Do I think that the Bills will have one of the worst passing attacks in the league? No. They have Josh Allen. The point is, if they end up with the 12th(ish) best passing attack, they would have been much higher with even an average room.
My biggest issue is not surrounding Josh with elite talent. He is asked to elevate role players. The entire focus should be, give Allen everything to create an unstoppable offense and be good enough everywhere else. The Bills philosophy, in the Allen era, has been to allocate $ and elite draft picks to the defense and let Allen cover for their deficiencies. They’ve kind of made more of an effort over the last couple of drafts. Although when they desperately needed a WR they traded down twice and selected the 8th guy at the position. Despite where he was picked that doesn’t scream to me the Bills saying, “we need to get Josh more help.”
This team lacks talent comparatively. Look at all of the top 50 or top 100 player lists. See how many Bills players are on their vs. other top teams. Could Andy Isabella or KJ Hamler end up on their next year? Sure. Is it likely? Of course not. That’s the issue. Those of us holding the Bills to a higher standard are in “wait and see” mode like the rest of you. We just aren’t expecting things that are highly unlikely to happen. We wanted, and still want, the Bills to add more weapons that are LIKELY to contribute as opposed to COULD contribute.
I think this is probably my last post in the thread.
For all your jabs at being realistic, you seem to be missing some very important basic points about football:
- you might not care about things like the running game, defense or the cap, but football teams do. Everybody here makes fun of McDermott for talking about complimentary football, but that is what EVERY football coach in America worth a damn believes in. The key to Johnson, Shannahan and McVays whole systems are the run game fcol
- Stefon Diggs (as well as Von, White and Poyer on defense) put us in a tough spot the last few years. Those were our big contract guys, our stars…and they all got hurt or didn’t want to be here.
- We have generally been picking at the end of the first round for a while now. You have to get lucky to grab a dynamic guy in that spot. It can happen, sure…but the slam dunks are usually gone. Sure, the Bills could have traded up for Nabers (maybe), but it would have cost them A LOT of draft capital and just wasn’t realistic (or even possible potentially…if it’s so obvious then why would the other team agree?).
Here is some realism for you. Our starting 5 targets are Kincaid, Cook, Shakir, Samuel and some combination of MVS/Coleman/Hollins/Claypool. Knox will likely get a bunch of snaps, too, but tbd on who comes off. Hamler, Isabella, Shorter…probably don’t make the team unless it is on the PS or they are undeniable.
Say what you want about that starting 5, but all things considered (Diggs trade/dead cap, the turnover on defense, the cap situation heading into the offseason) that’s a workable recover group. The starters are fast and reliable. 4 of the starters have played for Brady. And most importantly, Josh likes them and seems happier than last season.
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33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
There is one position you conspicuously didn't mention here. Hint: it's mentioned in the subject title of the thread.
I left WR out specifically because we are talking about WR. The point is, the rest of the offense is pretty good. A rising tide lifts all boats.
24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:The complaint is not about any one specific factor. The complaint is that since 2021 the team has not made surrounding Josh Allen with as much offensive talent as possible the singular priority and focus of the organization. Quite the opposite in fact. It has been shown that they have invested in the position less than 30 teams. Even if you want to count Kincaid as a WR we still would rank much lower than just about every other franchise. They have not made a serious attempt to lead the franchise to glory by taking the easiest path which is giving their most important asset the most support possible. This is pretty much undeniable no matter how you want to look at it.
Football is a team sport. You don't just support your QB with WR.
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
So just to be clear - you recognize that the team (and yourself) made a mistake assuming the best case scenario for each of their WRs, and assuming a perfectly linear uptick from their targets to their yards.
Yet you are now extremely confident that players like Shakir and Samuel are in fact going to do that same thing you were wrong about before?
Sounds like you already understand exactly why most of us are concerned. You're just deciding to believe in the best case scenario. Which is fine, clearly that is part of your definition of "being a fan" (as you've openly admitted). I just don't understand why you're pretending like your opinion is in any way convincing or supported by evidence to people that are trying to evaluate the room objectively.
If you want to just say "I'm choosing to be optimistic and wait to see what happens before being concerned," by all means feel free to do that. It just makes for a poor discussion.
I wouldn't say I am optimistic or pessimistic. I don't really have a prediction and I don't know if it will work out. I just see how it could, and I don't think it is that unreasonable.
Listen, if the Bills were a bad team with a poor offensive line, a middling QB and zero recent success, I could understand a more cynical take on the matter. But we have a good offensive line, one of the best QBs in the NFL, and above average receiving threats at TE and RB.
I understand your "realism" but I firmly believe that what you see as realism is just years of disappointment manifesting itself. For all the Bills success over the last 5 years, they don't really have anything to show for it and nothing they did this offseason screams championship on the surface. But, if you are honest with yourself, what was the big complaints about our receivers? Too small, too slow, and too many drops. Well, they didn't sign any pro bowlers...but they did get a lot bigger and faster and the catch rates are better (tbd if it stays that way). And they did that while eating a 31 million dollar cap hit instead of featuring Diggs. I just think it could be a lot worse and maybe you should see what happens first...There's plenty of time to be pissed about things you can't control.
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14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Those sound like excuses. We can look at the talent, pedigree and resumes of every team and compare them. That’s what Sharp did. That’s what people do at this time of year. The reason that some are shy to do it is because it isn’t impressive comparatively. None of us would hesitate to stack Josh’s talent, pedigree and resume against his peers. That’s because he will show as elite.
Ok, I hear you...
Let's talk about Chase Claypool for a minute.
Former Second round pick. Had over 1000 yards and 13 TDs his senior year at ND. 9.98 RAS score (Same as AD Mitchell, who was tops in the 2024 class). First two years in the NFL he had just over 100 targets for over 800 yards each season. Then, Big Ben retires. Steelers draft Pickens. Claypool gets traded to the Bears who can't pass to save their lives. Then he gets traded again to Miami, who runs a ton of motion and doesn't really use a traditional X. Has a terrible year and is labeled a headcase.
Maybe he is trash. But he is extremely talented trash. No injury history and still young. A guy like that could have significant impact on where our WR wind up at the end of the year. Realistically he could be a star or not make the team. High variance. Makes it hard to rate the Bills reliably. Their best case and worst case are wildly divergent. Worst case, nobody steps up and we are a team full of #3 receivers. Best case, we have one of the biggest and most athletic receiver cores in the NFL that dominates man coverage, especially in the playoffs when teams get grabby.
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15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Who are the 11 teams better in a best case scenario? Who are the rest if we are top 16?
The problem that some of us are struggling with is that no one is going on record with the teams. Obviously no one will say that the Bills have better pass catchers than SF but waiting for someone to (incorrectly) say that they are better than Atlanta or someone like that.
Let's start with Atlanta, since you named them.
Mack Hollins was second on that team in catches and yards last season. He might not even see the field on this team. Pitts and Mooney had 1000 yard seasons in 2021, but haven't really come close since. Honestly, outside of Drake London, Pitts and Mooney (and I guess Rondale Moore from college)...I don't even really know anything about the other guys on their roster aside from the fact that they have like zero production and were late picks or undrafted.
And yet, they are #16 on the list. So clearly the #1's are getting a lot of weight and London is seen as an up and comer who just needs a QB.
I'd call TE a wash, I definitely think Samuel is better than Mooney, and the Bills go way deeper. So it really comes down to Drake London, I guess.
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32 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
If there is a “notion to the contrary” someone should list the teams lower and support it. We are seeing a bunch of “they are better than Warren Sharp’s ranking” but no one is stepping up and listing the teams that they are better than. That doesn’t feel right. I have them bottom 3 with New England and LA Chargers.
I'll tell you what, since you seem hellbent on this idea.
Pick any team outside the Top 9 on Sharp's list and I will make a rational argument on why the Bills have a better receiver/TE group than that team. I looked at them and think it could be done.
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13 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Okay so you think that this is a bottom 5-6 WR group is a reasonable take.
WTF are we even arguing then lol.Because you seem to be attached to this idea that it is the ONLY take, and that any notion to the contrary is some wild, homerish take.
I personally take issue with the idea that the Bills WR group isn't talented. That's just false. Strictly from a physical perspective (using something like RAS score) I am certain they rank higher than 28, for example. Now, I haven't done all the legwork for that, so I am sure Ill have somebody tell me how bad a take that was...but of that projected top 6 I posted they have 2 guys that run under a 4.4 (Samuel, MVS), a few that were just over (Shakir and Claypool) and a couple of bigger guys that run 4.5 or 4.6 in Hollins and Coleman. They all can jump. The smallest guy is 5'11 and the lightest is 190. 4 or them are 6'3 or taller and over 200 lbs. Physically, they are impressive
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Just now, FireChans said:
Speak subjectively.
If you want to dispute someone else’s subjective opinion that this is a bottom 5 group, post your own.
I didn't dispute it...in fact, I said I understand why you would feel that way.
I just also reminded you that most of the criteria that generated that opinion is only one way to look at it.
2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:you are hardly alone
this is the position of most neutral observers
Nobody is neutral. Everyone is bias.
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3 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Just list the teams you think are better or worse than the Bills WR’s.
If your subjective take is that we are the 10th best group or whatever, post it.If you won’t, it just means you don’t really believe it lol.
I have never really had ANY subjective takes in this thread. Certainly not one that compares them directly to other teams. Mostly because I understand that there are several variables that go into a passing game.
But, objectively speaking, here is what I know: The Bills projected 6 WR (Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Claypool, MVS and Hollins) are considerably bigger and faster than last season, and their catch rates are generally better than the guys they are replacing. Better or worse is TBD, but they are certainly different. It could be a much better group than it looks like on paper is all I have ever said. They aren't a bunch of UDFAs or even late round picks.
3 minutes ago, FireChans said:Okay.
I am not comfortable with their talent level. I think they are full of guys who actually kinda suck and/or are unproven and/or who are limited compared to the NFL at large.
I think anyone who argues to the contrary but also won’t rate their talent compared to the NFL at large is at best a coward and at worst completely dishonest.
I don't know you from anyone, and you don't know me...why on earth would our rating matter? So you can argue with whatever stats or observations you think are important?
You understand that there is no right answer, right?
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45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I can live with a year of them being outside top 10 for a year while they are in a mini reset mode. But the last offseason where anyone would legitimately have made a realistic argument the Bills have "upgraded" the WR room is 2021 when they "upgraded" Brown with Sanders. I think that was at best a marginal gain but you could make the argument. That means we have now gone through three offseasons without any serious attempt to upgrade the wide receiver room. That shouldn't happen when you have Josh, because if you are standing still you are getting worse.
2021 really shot us in the foot in this regard...
Gabe had that big game against KC, Stef was hitting the weight room, McKenzie had that breakout game against the Patriots...I just don't think we thought we needed a guy, but we did draft Shakir. They were clearly wrong. In 2023 draft, they were clearly going to address it, but all the viable WR were taken ahead of the Bills so they took a TE instead. I looked, and aside from Puka I don't really see any other receivers they could have drafted instead of Torrence without trading up.
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2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Everything is an objective opinion at the point. This is an objective opinion from a person that’s career is evaluating this stuff. I share a similar opinion.
It’s fine to be optimistic or pessimistic. I’ve elected realistic. At this point, there is no reason to believe that they are better than that. The resumes and pedigrees of most of the roster doesn’t support optimism. Could they overachieve? Sure? If they overachieve, that could catapult them to 22 perhaps? That’s still not good enough.
When you have Josh Allen, his weapons shouldn’t be outside of the top 10. His job shouldn’t be to overcome the limitations of the guys around him. They should be amplifying his immense talents.
This is subjective, not objective.
Objective - The Bills were the 28th least productive receiving core in 2023, based on yards (or whatever)
Subjective - The Bills have the 28th best Wr core for 2024, based on their 2023 production (or whatever reason)
the objective statement is a fact, the subjective statement is an opinion based on facts. What makes it subjective is your statement is based on evidence you have deemed important. You defined what productive means, what talented means, etc. those are opinions, not facts. That is why this thread is so many pages…it is full of opinions.
Opinions are fine…everyone has them. This thread however, has been incredibly disrespectful…mostly because some opinions are being presented as objective facts.
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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I agree on all fronts. The TEs would bump the Bills up a few spots (25ish). The conversation in this thread and the Warren Sharp article are slightly different. The pass catchers are 25ish and the WRs are 29ish.
I get why you think that. I get why articles say that. The Bills lost their two most productive receiving options and replaced them with guys that have either never come close to that level of production in the NFL, or haven’t recently for one reason or another.
I know I’ll just get blasted for another bad take, but this happened last year, too. Everyone was PRESSED about LB and RT. Bernard and Brown were trash and the Bills didn’t care. We should have signed “insert overpriced vet here”
Clearly, the doom and gloom takes at those positions were wrong, and yet here we are. I’m not saying you can’t or shouldn’t be skeptical, but at the end of the day, just remember it’s a subjective opinion, not an objective fact.
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4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
quick in-thread poll
which is less surprising: random bad take generator @Mikey152 fumbling the point or @oldmanfan attempting to cosign
Bad takes or not, I come to this message board to talk about the bills, and every one of my posts in this thread was about the Bills receivers…no matter how dumb you think they are.
Why on earth do you think it’s ok to act like that with people you don’t even know?
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Just now, HappyDays said:
We have $10M in cap space right now. Daquan Jones + Epenesa + MVS is another $9M right there. Plenty of other moves that could be made too.
Don't say it wasn't affordable. The Bills intentionally chose to prioritize other positions over Hopkins. That's the simple reality. They tried signing Arik Armstead to the same money Jacksonville gave him. The pattern is obvious and nobody is going to take you seriously if you don't even acknowledge it.
So you would trade all of our cap space, Jones, Epenesa and MVS for Hopkins?
Let me ask this another way...If Hopkins was a great deal, why did he end up on the Titans? Why didn't the Chiefs sign him, for example?
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10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Right so your response to that was extremely predictable and shows that you didn't ask that question in good faith.
For the record, yes we obviously could have afforded Hopkins, at the expense of other players of course. But we chose to prioritize other positions instead. Which is the whole point of this conversation. We have repeatedly prioritized other positions over WR and it has repeatedly cost us. Imagine if Hopkins was in Sherfield's spot against the Chiefs. Think that might have made a difference? Ah but for you that example doesn't count. Because of reasons.
But that is where you are wrong...
We are spending 1/6th of our cap on WR this season. If we had Hopkins, we would have never gotten under the cap this year.
Just so I am clear, they brought Hopkins in. They talked to him, and I am sure they ran numbers. So I am just supposed to take it from you, an armchair GM...that they "COULD HAVE" had Hopkins, but they chose not because they couldn't afford it, but because they don't care about WR enough? Do you hear yourself?
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15 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Hopkins cost $4M against the cap in 2023.
Harty cost $4M against the cap in 2023. Sherfield cost $1.7M.
Bad take palooza continues.
And 18 Million this year with a 12 million dead cap hit...
Can't afford it.
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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:
DeAndre Hopkins
Last season?
They clearly tried...he got way more money than they could reasonably afford (2/26). They didn't have anywhere near that much cap space.
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2 hours ago, Billl said:
Is there a single pass catcher on this roster, regardless of position, that you would feel good about if they put up the same numbers in 2024 as they did in 2023?
Samuel: 613 yards, 4 TDsKincaid: 673/2
Shakir: 611/2
Knox: 186/2
MVS: 315/1
Hollins: 251/0
Claypool: 77/1
Cook: 445/4
you realize that the Bills would only throw the ball like 300 times if that happened, right?
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29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I believe that once they traded Diggs, they needed to replace someone at the top of the depth chart. I believed that they needed to take one of the top 3 (even at the expense of next year’s 1) or trade for Ayiuk and pay him. It’s the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the team. The Bills have an elite QB. They should have only cared about loading up for Josh.
It is funny how times change...I remember when Matt Millen was DESTROYED for taking WR high. When the Bills were crazy for trading up for a WR.
Trading tons of assets and money for a WR is NOT conventional and is NOT universally considered a good idea. Honestly, it feels very "fantasy football" to me in a lot of ways. So maybe that is the real debate...it's not really about who these receivers are so much as who they aren't. Some of us are amazed at what they bought with the money they had, and others wanted them to bust out the credit card and mortgage the future. That's the real debate.
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Mikey152
First off, I read the article...It said Warren Sharp analysis team, whoever that is.
And they even said the rankings were based on whatever criteria the voter decided was appropriate. It's not hard to see how someone would look at the Bills receivers and think they are bad...Coleman is a bust, Shakir has short arms, Samuel is a gadget guy, MVS can't catch, Claypool is a head case and who the heck is Mack Hollins. That's probably what most people think. Most of those statements even have some truth to them. It's just not the whole truth.
I really need to follow my instincts and push away from this thread once and for all. There really is no point. It will be exactly like Alpha said...If theyre good, there will be some excuse like "I did say if Keon or Kincaid stepped up, they might be ok" and if they are bad, full of I told you so.
Im not trying to be right. Im not even trying to make a prediction. Im just saying that maybe you should enjoy the ride a little instead of assuming it is gonna suck before it even starts. "Worrying only means you suffer twice"
Trying to convince Bills fans their team doesn't suck is just strange.