Mikey152
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Posts posted by Mikey152
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7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
Good stuff. You nail it on precision and accuracy in that the only true way would be off field at a specific target. I have made the statement that Allen needs to be more precise and I agree based one one throw that is not measurable. My statement is directed more at say an entire games worth of throws, where I see receivers having to reach back a bit, or where they make a catch but aren't in position to get YAC. I feel he's accurate on such throws but could be more precise, with the assumption that he wanted to hit a different specific target within the catch radius than he did, such that receivers would be running after catch and such.
Thanks for this post.
Whether or not I agree with the terminology, I totally get what you are trying to say and I agree with you...he was not an efficient passer, and part of that was due to ball placement.
What I also think is, under certain (ie ideal) circumstances, he throws darts and can do so to all areas of the field. It’s those throws where he needs to gear down a little or quickly move his feet that he seems to be less consistent with...I’m not sure he will ever be more than ok at them. It’s the downside of having a rocket arm...you have to take so much off to get the proper trajectory, it’s almost impossible to maintain proper mechanics consistently...if you’ve ever tried to throw a football to a small child, it’s almost impossible to slow your arm down and still throw an accurate spiral.
The other misfires are often timing related...throwing to a spot too early or too late (or right on time but your receiver is early or late) can have a huge impact, and throwing as hard as he does only exacerbates the problem because receivers don’t have as much time to adjust and make the throw look even wilder than it really is. I think those issue will work themselves out over time.
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Precision can be calculated in one of two ways when it comes to throwing a football, and neither of them are possible during a live game due to A) a sample set of 1 per pass attempt (ie every attempt is different and has a million variables) and B) Throws are spacial, time-relevant, and optimal location (and therefore intent) is contingent on situation.
So the reality is...we really only are talking about accuracy here. But, semantics aside...clearly the evaluation of accuracy is flawed for some of the same reasons (B) and because an "accurate pass" is subjective...it's why opinions on Josh Allen's accuracy varies so wildly.
I don't have stats to back it up, but I would say that from a strictly observational standpoint...When Josh Allen has time and a clean pocket, he has the ability to deliver the football as accurately and consistently (ie precisely) as anyone in the league to all levels of the field. I don't recall too many misfires, and conversely saw quite a few dead-accurate passes, in this scenario. I think he would destroy other QBs at an "accuracy" skills challenge, for example. Where he struggles is when he is rushed, trying to do too much, and misreads/miscommunication. Those are all things that get better with experience, IMO (and with better teammates)...and I think for those of us that have watched him, it's why he looks a lot better when you watch him than he does on paper. I think OP's analysis at least partially helps to bridge that gap.
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These threads are often so misguided...I'm pretty sure some of you would replace half the roster with rookies and other teams trash if you could, then you would complain when they suck. You'd also complain when our trash looks great on other teams. I still remember threads about how the Bills had the "worst WR corps in the league outside of Sammy" when they had Watkins, Woods, Goodwin and Hogan on the same team. Whoops.
What this team really needs is...time. Maybe some consistency. And a quarterback (which takes, get this, time).
Zay Jones is more than a Slot receiver. Dawkins is more than a guard. Hell, even the bottom half of the receiver roster has potential under the right circumstances..they are just young.
This team should look for a few upgrades in FA at any position on the roster, including defense. Then draft BPA not counting QB. In a case where grades are close, I would hope they lean towards WR, OL or TE...but I also wouldn't mind a stud DLineman.
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Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:
Plenty of players test fast, but don't play fast and sometimes it's just the opposite. What happens on the field in actual competition is all that matters.
That is just something people say...It's not real.
And I am not just talking about 40 times. The jumps in particular are fairly indicative of a player's explosive ability.
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6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Does he look explosive in actual game play? I could not care any less about combine skills in shorts. What happens when the pads are on against the opposition in games that count?
Ah, so you prefer anecdotal to analytical...gotcha
The point is he is a good athlete, so if he is "playing slow" it's not because of his physical ability. Personally, I think it's bs until somebody shows me the contrary. He;s been able to get separation, even last year...he just has had problems dropping it or being targeted so far in his young career. Jerry Rice had similar problems. It happens to the best of them.
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Somebody earlier said Zay isn't fast/explosive/etc...
At the combine (which was just last year for him) he measured 6'2" and 201 pounds with a 4.45 40, 36.5 inch vertical, 133 inch broad jump and 4.01/11.17 shuttles. Those were all top 12 times in his class, and some of them were top 3-5
For comparison, Sammy Watkins was 6'1" 211. 4.43, 34, 126, 4.34 and Julio Jones was 6'3" 220, 4.38, 38.5. 135. 4.23/11.07
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8 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
Brees has a weaker arm than Peterman...http://www.pass2win.com/ball-velocity-exposing-the-power-qb.html
Drew Brees has never been known for having a cannon, but he makes up for that with timing, deadly accuracy, and technique.
I've been making comparisons to Brees and Peterman for a while based mostly on the way they play and the situation they found themselves in on their rosters. Time will tell if he's able to put it together, but he's a smart kid who doesn't get rattled, and his skill set is shared by many really good QBs. He's got a hell of a mountain to climb, and I'm just hoping he gets that chance.
Something you have to realize is measuring ball velocity at the combine is not a separate test where the QB is intentionally trying to throw as hard as they can...it is measured when they are going through the passing drills. So while some QBs might try and throw with max or near-max velocity, others (especially those who are less accurate or throw very hard) might try to take something off to throw a more accurate, catchable ball.
As an overall list, it's useful information...but it's also not an end all, be all.
Also, for the record Josh Allen was at like 62 mph at the combine.
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4 minutes ago, Trogdor said:
I mean what don't you understand about his responsibility? The untouched comment was because the other poster made it seem as though that was someone else's fault. It's not that he was untouched, it was that he had trouble picking it up in the first place. You're really fighting the good fight here huh?
Identifying a blitzer pre-snap isn't always possible. It's called disguising coverage and happens all the time.
Identifying blitzers POST-Snap IS his job...he failed the first time, but not the second. That is the point.
2 minutes ago, SoCoBills said:Of course he has the ability to set protections. EVERY quarterback and I mean EVERY single one is expected to do this. I’ve heard of a rare situation or 2 where an inexperienced qb had an experienced center make all the line calls from time to time but that’s not the norm.
He calls out the mike maybe...but he probably doesn't have audibles for the RB in a preseason game to pick up safety blitzes. That's not the kind of thing you just do on the fly.
And all of this is assuming that the safety blitz was identifiable pre-snap. Chances are it was not...especially since there wasn't any game planning.
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19 minutes ago, Trogdor said:
Jesus Christ, when a DB drops down to blitz it's the QBs job to pick that up. Not to do the actual blocking. He didn't read the blitz either time, that's all I'm saying. A lot of pro-QBs don't see it either, but it's still their fault.
I feel like you are saying this because that is what Tim Couch said...
It is his job to read the safeties, because that is what tells him what kind of coverage they are in...It is NOT necessarily his job to set protections and since this was week two of preseason, I highly doubt they had safety blitz audibles assigned.
He missed it the first time. He did what he could with the play that was called the second time. Thats all we know. Anything beyond that is you putting your narrative one something you just don't know.
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Just now, Trogdor said:
I mean he already killed a play, so I assume he has other options. Is it so hard to believe that he just hasn't figured out how to read that yet? It's not like he is used to playing against pro quality defenses or anything.
You don't know what play he killed, but it was likely either just flipping sides or changing from one run to another, which is a matter of counting defenders in the box and on each side of the center. It has nothing to do with reading coverage and identifying the pass rush, then changing to a play and/or blocking scheme that attacks it.
One is basic football that people on this board could do...the other requires game planning and installation during the week
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Just now, Trogdor said:
Shifting the block or an audible is accounting for him, slinging a flat pass as fast as you can with poor accuracy is not. I'm sure he will figure it out with more time, but picking up the blitz with this line is going to be essential.
You assume that he is calling the blocking scheme and that they have audibles installed in a preseason game...my guess is they do not. He threw it to his hot read...that is likely all he had regarding options.
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1 minute ago, Trogdor said:
That means he blew the read twice. They pointed out during the game that it's the QBs responsibility to see that defender and account for him. Growing pains. I hope we don't make too many excuses though, because it's still his fault.
That's the point...he did. He got rid of the football that time.
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17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
The accuracy issues are from reading several in depth reports that analyzed his ball placement. I'd intended for the two to be separate things.
I agree with you that raw completion percentage and accuracy aren't the exact same thing, ie EJ Manuel has terrible accuracy despite completing a very high percentage of his passes at FSU.
Where we picked Allen has no bearing on whether it was a good decision. Plenty of QBs have been picked in the top 10 who were complete busts. Some had accuracy problems and some had other issues. If I remember correctly, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith and Jake Locker were all top 10 guys with sub 57% completions who were all complete busts.
You're completely missing the point about being drafted in the top 10. Guys don't wind up there by accident.
Some dude drafted in the third round with a sub 57% completion percentage might have unfixable issues. But a guy drafted in the top 10 either has a trump card or, upon further scrutiny, his stats weren't a true reflection of his ability. Maybe both.
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6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
You're right. They're not the same thing. In fact, I don't know when I said they were.
All I said is that QBs who couldn't complete more than 57% of their throws in college have no history of making successful NFL QBs (over the last 20 years).
You literally said "guys that have accuracy issues" then clarified via 57% comp %.
Out of curiosity...how many of those guys were top 10 picks? My guess is we are talking about less than 5. Not exactly a huge sample size.
So maybe, just maybe...there is some context there that makes him different? I mean, his numbers on third down, completion % wise, were similar to Darnold and Rosen.
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Just now, GoBills808 said:
I like to think of it as who's protecting him and to whom he's throwing for context's sake:
3rd stringers vs Panthers: 47%
2nd stringers vs Browns: 69%
Types of passes, too...
It was nice to see him show he is capable of running an efficient offense against the Browns, where they moved the ball without a bunch of chunk plays.
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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Guys who had accuracy issues coming out of college. Particularly guys who didn't complete fewer than 57% of the throws they attempted at the collegiate level.
There's the context.
Again, completion percentage and accuracy are not the same thing. That's the whole point. I mean, do you really think that Joe Flacco is more accurate than Dan Marino?
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3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Nothing you've dug up that I said is wrong.
Guys like Allen practically never work out.
Some guys who sat on the bench for a year or more did work out.The number of guys who sat and were successful is greater than the number of guys who completed less than 57% of their passes in college.
Maybe sitting will help. History clearly shows playing guys like him immediately will end in disaster.
What, exactly, is a "guy like him"?
This is the problem with your whole argument, in a nutshell. It has ZERO context. Low completion percentage = inaccurate. It doesn't take much to see that narrative was incorrect.
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Just now, The Senator said:
I am so sick and tired of reading that Allen is a “project” that needs to sit, watch, and learn.
He’s our best QB, rookie or not. He needs to play and learn, NOW.
He also gives us the best chance of winning, now.
People said he was a "project" because they thought he had crappy accuracy and sloppy footwork. But the reality is he is a smart kid who ran what was quite possibly the most (or second most behind Rosen) pro-style offense of all the rookies. Not to mention his physical tools which can mask some of the typical rookie problems. He had the highest floor, not the lowest...once you got past the narrative that he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, anyway (bear in mind this sentiment was based almost 100% on his stats and not his actual ability)
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6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Again, feel free to talk to me in 3 years.
I don't know what you're expecting me to say right now. None of us have any idea if Josh Allen is going to become a franchise calibre QB in the NFL.
That's funny, because you seemed pretty sure before...
Josh Allen was all set to be the poster child for the analytics crew...I think it's hilarious that he is shaping up to be the exact opposite, basically proving that a lot of those numbers are contextual and can't be compared in a vacuum.
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10 hours ago, NewEra said:
I just don’t see any explosion in his game and his route running is just meh. He doesn’t get off the line quick enough imo. If he was 6’5, I think he may have a chance. He can jump and catch, I just don’t think he’ll be able to get open.
Ill go with
KB
Kerley
Zay
Reilly
Foster
Phillips
and Mcloud if we go with 7
but I’m sure we’ll keep Holmes and either Foster or Phillips will go to the PS. I just don’t like Andre Holmes. He bores me. Anyone else feel the same? Like you just want him to be cut already and see what these other kids can do?
Maybe he isn't explosive in pads (or you are just making this up based on what you read), but his jumping numbers (which are shown to correlate the most with explosiveness) at the combine were incredible...39.5 inch vert and over 11 feet in the broad jump indicate he is extremely explosive. I don't think he is very physical, though...and because he is tall, he isn't exactly agile, either. Maybe that's what you're actually seeing
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15 minutes ago, joesixpack said:
From a passing perspective? No, it literally can't get any worse than Tyrod.
You may have valid concerns in the run game. But you're taking an extreme stance that in no way shape or form that Wood's and Incognito's replacements can't at least play on an even level.
You have no proof to back that opinion up, only FEELS.
America. !@#$ yeah.
Honestly, I feel like Incognito and Wood regressed quite a bit last season...
Wood was abused routinely and Incognito was seemingly good for at least one holding penalty a game, which is a clear sign of losing a step at LG where you generally aren't blocking guys in front of you...he just wasn't getting to his spot fast enough.
The Bills might miss their leadership, but their on-field play wasn't what it once was...whether it was old age or scheme? Not sure
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17 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:
...um...North Dakota State plays in an indoor stadium.
The argument about Allen is this: Given his physical tools and mental makeup, either A) he really does suck because we have a BIG SAMPLE size that says he does. or B) He has sucked so far because in his youth and college years, he never was around good coaching or other players that would push his development along and he won't suck anymore after he gets good coaching and has teammates and opponents who are better quality.
That's it. I love metrics...I think metrics are really useful.....but it doesn't take advanced metrics to tell any reasonable person that Josh Allen's actual performance in football has been poor. That includes the Bills staff.
The Bills staff believes the answer is B....because you don't take him if you think it's A....and you also don't take him even if you believe it's B, but you aren't sure you can fix him. They think he's undercoaced and underdeveloped.
I don't think they can do it. I would only say, in this case, where you may actually have a guy with a ton of talent, who just hasn't been developed properly for years...that could be something the analytics would miss because the analytics are analyzing high level football players, and makes no assumptions where they came from or how much football they played where, or against who. This is where you'd not rely on a number spit out by a formula...but a human judgement. Again..I don't think it will end well, but I can see a case here about why the analytic numbers may not apply.
This is a good post, and I generally agree with your points...but I think you are a little off (and it's not just you) when you say he was poor in college. Inefficient, maybe, but not poor...it was clear that he was carrying his team, though...they were really bad before he got there and when he was hurt, and an 8 win bowl team when he played.
Serious question:
Would you take Tyrod Taylor right now over Brett Favre in his prime? Do you know who would? Analytics...because their model rewards "efficiency" and has no measure for things like plays left on the field. The year the Packers won the SB, Brett Favre completed 59.9% of his passes.
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My problem with Analytics, as used in football, can be summed up very concisely with this article...
"Old School" vs. "New School":
JT Barrett completed 64.7% of his passes for 35 TDs and 8 INTs in the Big 10 this year. Those are better numbers than anybody but Mayfield w/ regards to the big 4, and that doesn't even include his rushing stats. On paper, he should have been a top choice in the draft this year...and yet it was his physical tools and game tape that kept him from getting drafted anywhere near the top of the draft. Don't even get me started on Guys like Mike White and Luke Falk.
This, in a nutshell, is the problem. All these indicators, like comp%? They only appear to be "predictive" once you have already evaluated a prospect by more traditional means, like size, arm strength, level of comp, scheme, etc...so for them to in turn be so cavalier about the value of traditional scouting is hilarious.
Also, call me crazy but I don't think I need analytics to know that most guys that had bad numbers in college probably won't have good numbers in the pros....but to act like there can't be justfiable rationale for it to occur based on a flawed statistical sample? That's bastardizing stats.
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On 7/14/2018 at 6:26 AM, machine gun kelly said:
I’m not saying there aren’t pretty girls in Buffalo, but per capita, there are a lot more in Tampa where I live. People just have a tendency to stay more fit in many warm weather climates in decent sized cities.
All of my friends from Buffalo when visiting me when I was single used to say the same thing when down here. The women are probably just as pretty in Buffalo, but too easy to put on the winter weight, when down here you always are not wearing a sweatshirt or sweater.
everything down here is t-shirts, tanks, shorts, etc almost the entire year.
as far as the show I heard a little, but not this caller. Thanks for sharing.
I think this has more to do with demographics and socio-economics than it does weather.
For example, Ohio in general has a ton of overweight people...but in the small, wealthy, town I live in near Columbus there is an abnormally high number of attractive people relative to the rest of the state. Better food, better education, better means...and likely more of an emphasis on appearance.
It would stand to reason that, on average, places near the beach would also tend to have wealthier people...and people who enjoy active lifestyles.
Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
"Best Player available" is sort of a misnomer...it is incredibly rare where there is a literal "best player". Most of the time what happens is players fall into groups or tiers made up of similarly-ranked players (position is likely factored in somewhat, but from an absolute value standpoint and not based on need).
When you adopt a BPA strategy, you should always be picking from the highest tiers left on your board. If there aren't any positions you need in your highest tier (or loads of guys left in that tier), maybe you trade down...and if there is only one or two guys left in a tier at a position of need maybe you trade up.
What BPA really means is don't reach for need...you should trust your board you spent a year building. Crazy stuff happens to rosters in football, and you can always trade picks or players if you're in a position of surplus.