IgotBILLStopay

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22514058/chicago-bears-release-jerrell-freeman-two-seasons looks like the injury contributed to the second suspension - so may not be a head case. If so, we shd be all over him.

The Bills are the perfect landing spot for FOles per this article. http://www.prosportsdaily.com/Headlines/ExternalArticle?articleId=500942 I happen to completely agree with this article. If not the belle of the QB ball this offseason (Cousins), I wouldnt mind Foles as a nice consolation prize.

Oops my bad. Sorry. I didn't know it was that old. I did check the first couple of pages. Really sorry guys.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jets-new-offensive-coordinator-jeremy-bates-has-a-big-fan-in-kirk-cousins/amp/ a little pissed. But we did the same with Rex.

I did look but couldnt find a comparison of Foles and Cousins w.r.t Bills needs and fit anywhere. And of course, if it belongs in a different place, my apologies in advance. Personally, the more I looked at video of Cousins, it became clear why he was a better fit for the Bills and I wanted to share that.

By the way, the odds of us getting Cousins are better than most people (beat writers) think. The QB needy teams are Giants, Jets, Browns, Denver, Arizona, Minnesota Buffalo and, maybe, Jacksonville (did I miss somebody?) Browns and Giants will likely go the draft route with this draft class. Also it is unlikely a QB in his prime will opt for the Browns at this point. Likely DItto for the Jets. The salary cap for Denver, Arizona and Jacksonville is not really conducive to sign a big name QB. They have to release a bunch of players to clear cap space. So despite Von MIller lobbying for Cousins, Denver may be better off going the draft route given they are guaranteed to get one of the top 4 QBs this year. The only note of caution in this argument is that Elway may be a bit wary of the draft given the Paxton Lynch experience, but all told it makes too much sense for Denver to use the draft. So IMO, the real competition is likely to be only MInnesota, who do have 50 mill plus cap space.

and I see a negative connection. If we get cousins, no way Pryor comes here.

If they want to move on from TT, Bills face two choices: get a QB in the draft or get a veteran FA (I dont think they do both). This is a ranking of the top free agents / trades for veterans. Clearly a ranking will also depend on what it takes to get it done. With Jimmy G, Alex Smith and Brees off the market, the veteran guys I consider in the tier 1 of QBs are: Cousins, Foles, Keenum, Bridgewater, AJ McCarron & Bradford. Tier 2 would be the likes of Gabbert, Savage etc. and I do not want to go down a tier 2 route again after Orton fiasco. It is amazing, but despite scouring the internet, I am yet to find a decent comparison of Cousins and Foles, especially w.r.t fit with the Bills roster. 1. Cousins is coming off a third straight 4000 yd type season and is arguably the best pocket passer of the group. What you see is what you get. I saw him against weak defenses or strong and he delivers the same way - there are other Qbs who can shred a bad secondary / pass rush but get killed against a different defense. This guy does his thing whoever the opposition. He has the best pocket poise among the FA crop. In some ways he is the opposite of Tyrod - staying in the pocket or moving around while simultaneously going through the reads till he finds the mismatch or open man. The more I see him, the more I think of him as a poor man's Peyton Manning! While his arm strength will not wow anyone, it is not bad like a Chad Pennington. Ditto for accuracy. It is decent but not Drew Brees like pinpoint precise. But what sets him apart are his intangibles, his decision making and what he does when pressured. The Bills have not had a smart quarterback like him since the Flutie days. And he is a legit 6' 3" - doesnt have any significant downside. Signing him means we keep our first rounders and can build around him. But do we have the receiving Corps to attract him? Maybe tell him our two first rounders are going to be a WR and an OL? Also .. he will get paid with a capital P!! Think 30 mill plus per season with at least 90 mill guaranteed. Personally, I think in a few years that contract for a starting QB will look like a bargain - so, in my mind he is clearly option #1. 2. Foles, in many ways might be the most polarizing choice. DO I look at the great season in 2014 or do I look at the two years after that? DO I look at the playoffs or do I look at the regular season games last year? But he will be paid a pittance for next year - so we get a year to evaluate him in our system before throwing him the big bucks. The downside is that it will cost some picks to get him. In terms of Qb play, he is way different from Cousins. He wont be great in every system. An RPO based gameplan is necessary to play to his strengths. His decision making under a one-read RPO is way better than under a multiple read scheme. The problem is that means our personnel have to change their philosophy. For example, under RPO, the OL doent know if they are pass blocking or run blocking. I think Dawkins and MIller will excel in that, but I have my concerns about Cordy, Incognito and especially, MIlls. I admit I have not analyzed this much, but if someone has mor info about the ability of teh offensive line to play RPO, I'd like to hear it. I do believe Benjamin and Deonte Thompson will be great in RPO, but am not sure about Zay. The questions about Foles' fit with the Bills makes him a #2 option behind Cousins. To keep the post short, I will add that my 3,4 5 and 6 will be Keenum, McCarron, Bridgewater and Bradford - with the last two being fine quarterbacks but in that position just because of the injury history.

The guy won owned this year's playoffs (including a superbowl) with his arm, smarts and poise. I agree the two bad seasons after his breakout year are cause for concern - but it is probable the guy has actually turned a corner in ability and confidence. And at 5.5 mill a year you cant go wrong given our QB needs. Even if we draft a QB and Foles is keeping the seat warm, he will be a decent transition QB. At this stage, I dont think he is any worse than Flacco post-SB win and he is available at a fraction of Flacco's cost. Oh and if y'all want another reason to pursue Foles: http://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31086/best-bet-remains-for-bills-to-draft-quarterback-not-pursue-nick-foles MIke Rodent says "Dont"

maybe a swap of cordy for houston could work salary cap wise but Seattle will probably be where he (Cordy) is traded to

Thanks I did not know these two bits of info. Amazing how well our KC deal worked out for NO, Cleveland and Houston then. NO got the rookie of the year, Cleveland got #4 and Houston got their franchise QB. Jury is still out on Mahomes. - maybe will work out for KC as well. IF we get a franchise QB this year, I will be happy too (I am happy with Tre too).

Many of us wanted a trade down and are happy with Tre, 3rd and this year's first for moving down .. but.. I just wish we had done the trade with Houston instead of the Chiefs. Would have been the 4th pick this year ......

Hmm the WSJ also says it is smart for Philly to trade Foles. https://www.wsj.com/articles/nick-foles-is-a-philadelphia-herotime-to-trade-him-1518105531 Foles is signed to a cheap contract that stays cheap if Philly trade him before next offseason. So it is a question of if and not when that Foles is traded (if he stays on the Philly roster in early 2019, he becomes a free agent and Philly will get nothing in return). The only question is the 2.4 million Philly will save if he is traded before March 16. Keeping him on as an insurance policy till the Wentz return can no doubt be worth that money - but the more teams address their draft needs through the FA market (Cousins, Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater, McCown)and the draft, the less attractive offers Philly will get (it reduces the market for Foles). And I think it will take at least one of Buffalo's first rounders to get him - all this talk of 2nd round picks etc. not going to cut it. I can see that a team with a top 10 pick and a legit shot at a franchise QB in this deep draft will not offer the draft pick. But Foles is certainly worth a late first rounder.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-foles-free-agents-and-all-the-offseason-decisions-the-eagles-now-face/amp/ Several new outlets have been reporting that Philly's best option is to retain Foles as insurance till Wentz is fully healthy. I disagree. Philly has one of the worst cap situations in the league. See, for example, the link provided above. It is so bad that let alone Foles' 7 mill, even the 3 mill roster bonus that Philly will have to eat if Foles is not traded or released before March 16 might be difficult to stomach. Pederson's comments minutes after winning the super bowl where he was very reluctant to give a ringing endorsement to Foles ( he said one person does not make a team or something like that) as well as the fact that Foles' trade value might never be higher will likely ensure a Foles trade.

yes the two first rounders with the franchise tag are what makes this so enticing to a GM. Even if Jimmy G was a bit better than Cousins - getting Cousins (for similar money) + 2 first rounders should be tempting. I still dont understand how Redskins enter into it though.

and then there is this https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/04/report-49ers-nearing-long-term-contract-with-jimmy-garoppolo/

Jimmy G is a better player than Cousins. The only thing that would make this semi-legit is if Lynch / Shanahan had promised Cousins he will be the starter in SFO - which caused him to opt for the franchise tag two years in a row. Then might as well move Jimmy G for a pick + player. And it will likely be an AFC team instead of an NFC team. No team will give up a first unless they can sign Jimmy G long term - so Jimmy G can control the process to some extent. So likely no Cards / Giants / Browns / Jets. That makes Broncos / Bills as the likely teams. I just dont undertsand how the Redskins factor into the rumor - they have washed their hands off Cousins with the Smith trade, no? lol true. Wikipedia and FB are the true tests of truth now, arent they?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/49ers-gm-reveals-what-bill-belichick-told-him-before-making-the-garoppolo-trade/ These dont look like comments of a GM who is not keeping Garoppolo.

To decide whether to release players under contract, we need to weigh the cap savings against what we believe they are worth. cap savings are just the difference between their cap hit and the dead cap (of course sometime the dead cap is a multi-year number - so the exact cap savings for 2018 may be slightly different). Here are the cap savings numbers for the Bills players (I took the base numbers from Spotrac and just calculated the cap savings). I also adjusted Wood's numbers to reflect his retirement - so Bills have a dead cap of 2 yrs pro-rated signing bonus and save a little more than 1 million due to his retirement. We have about 30 mill in cap space at present. ACTIVE PLAYERS (52) DEAD CAP CAP HIT CAP Savings Tyrod Taylor ($8,640,000) $18,080,000 $9,440,000 Cordy Glenn ($11,100,000) $14,450,000 $3,350,000 Jerry Hughes ($5,800,000) $10,400,000 $4,600,000 Charles Clay ($9,000,000) $9,000,000 $0 LeSean McCoy ($5,250,000) $8,950,000 $3,700,000 Eric Wood ($4,333,334) - - Kelvin Benjamin - $8,459,000 $8,459,000 Richie Incognito ($1,150,000) $7,575,000 $6,425,000 Micah Hyde ($6,400,000) $6,800,000 $400,000 Jordan Poyer ($3,625,000) $3,875,000 $250,000 Lorenzo Alexander ($850,000) $3,600,000 $2,750,000 Steven Hauschka ($2,000,000) $3,000,000 $1,000,000 Shaq Lawson ($6,073,942) $2,803,356 ($3,270,586) Ryan Groy ($1,000,000) $2,500,000 $1,500,000 Tre'Davious White ($6,415,303) $2,293,434 ($4,121,869) Jordan Mills ($200,000) $2,150,000 $1,950,000 John Miller ($170,030) $2,075,030 $1,905,000 Patrick DiMarco ($1,500,000) $2,050,000 $550,000 Andre Holmes ($1,100,000) $1,750,000 $650,000 Zay Jones ($3,076,264) $1,540,870 ($1,535,394) Vladimir Ducasse ($166,668) $1,533,333 $1,366,665 Colton Schmidt ($300,000) $1,450,000 $1,150,000 Ryan Davis ($50,000) $1,275,000 $1,225,000 Dion Dawkins ($1,541,914) $950,736 ($591,178) Adolphus Washington ($377,148) $848,574 $471,426 Rod Streater - $790,000 $790,000 Khari Lee - $705,000 $705,000 Quan Bray - $630,000 $630,000 Dean Marlowe - $630,000 $630,000 L.J. McCray - $630,000 $630,000 Kelcie McCray - $630,000 $630,000 Marcus Murphy - $630,000 $630,000 Matt Milano ($196,130) $620,376 $424,246 Nathan Peterman ($179,625) $614,874 $435,249 Tanner Vallejo ($115,350) $593,449 $478,099 Breon Borders - $555,000 $555,000 Nordly Capi - $555,000 $555,000 Reid Ferguson - $555,000 $555,000 Deon Lacey - $555,000 $555,000 Conor McDermott - $555,000 $555,000 Brandon Reilly - $555,000 $555,000 De'Ondre Wesley - $555,000 $555,000 Keith Towbridge ($5,000) $482,500 $477,500 Cory Carter - $480,000 $480,000 Jason Croom - $480,000 $480,000 Malachi Dupre - $480,000 $480,000 Aaron Green - $480,000 $480,000 Rickey Hatley - $480,000 $480,000 Josh James - $480,000 $480,000 Marquavius Lewis - $480,000 $480,000 Adam Redmond - $480,000 $480,000 Xavier Woodson-Luster - $480,000 $480,000 There are some obvious no-brainers. If the cap savings are negative, you trade a player and never release him unless you desperately need that roster spot. So White, Lawson, Jones and Dawkins will never be released. Similarly Clay is worth more than zero and Shady is clearly worth 3.7 million. Also Hauschka, Poyer, Hyde, MIlano, Washington, Peterman are all no-brainers to keep. Even Glenn at 3.35 mill might be worth keeping. The big questions are (with my thoughts in parentheses): Tyrod - worth 9.4 million to not release? (NO) Hughes - 4.6 mill (Yes) Benjamin - 8.459 mill (Yes) Ritchie - 6.425 (Maybe) - this was a surprise to me I did not realize cap savings were this huge Groy - 1.5 mill (Yes) MIlls - 1.95 mill (Yes) MIller - 1.905 mill (Yes) Patrick Demarco - 550K (yes because the savings are so less for releasing) Holmes - 650K (Yes) Ducasse - 1.37 mill (Yes) Schmidt - 1.15 mill (yes) Davis - 1.225 (Yes) Streator - 790 K (Yes)

Spotrac only gives Sammy a 3 yr 17 mill deal. In contrast Gaines gets 9.3 mill per year. I think at 6 mill per year Sammy will look good again in a Bills Uni, no?

Several times the BIlls had a three and out being unable to get anything down the middle and ending with Tyrod getting sacked. Some of it was because opposing defenses were packing the box and some because Tyrod held on to the ball too long - but I felt our O-Line was pretty suspect in pass protection all year. That is why I made it a priority. What do you guys think about the WR situation? Is Deonte coming back?

Now that the 2017 season is officially over - what should be our offseason priorities? While we do have a nice stash of picks, Bills have even more holes to fill than last years' offseason. 1. QB Situation - Trade for Foles or 1st round QB in Draft along with a Tyrod trade for a 4th / 5th rounder would be my choices. 2. WR - Going into preseason with Benjamin and Zay "Mr. Drop" Jones as 1 and 2 just scares me. Some nice speed options with John Brown, Pryor or even Martavis Bryant. Would rather have one of these guys than use a first rounder on WR. 3. DL - Need a replacement for Kyle. Hughes' performance also sliding. Just two teams sacked fewer than the Bills in 2017. Definite Draft priority - Round 1 if no QB. 4. OL - Eric Wood replacement. Draft Priority - Round 1 if no QB. 5. LB - Arguably the worst unit on the Bills' defensive side. Milano is a keeper but need 2 more guys. After the Milano experience, trust the staff can find starter material in 2nd and thrid rounds. Alternatively, can live with a NaVorro Bowman signing. Singlehandedly improved Oakland's defense. But is 30 years old. Was hoping for Mason Foster but Redskins resigned him for a rather cheap deal. 6. CB - With news that Ej Gaines is on his way out, we have another hole to fill. Butler anyone? Would love for him to shutdown Hogan / Cooks twice a year and watch Belichik answer questions about that. 7. TE - With questions about Clay's durability, is the NIcklaus' bloodline the answer? I kinda liked the guy from the Jets (whose TD was called back against the Pats).

I dont understand it. Yes horrible hit deserved to be suspended more than a game. But we want him to hit every incentive there is - so Pats payroll goes up, no?

Good analysis OP. Bills have been a bit susceptible against the run this season. That said, against Fournette, I am less worried about the rushing than about the screen pass. I dont think our LBs are disciplined enough to handle it.

Miami laid out the blueprint for how to beat the Patriots: Offense: 1. Provide a completely different look to the previous game. At times, Jakeem Grant and Landry were lined up in the back field and received handoffs. There were several 4 WR sets with no TE! I dont know how we can do either with our personnel though. Against the Fins: The only way to defend WR in the backfield is for the linebackers to be very disciplined. We may have to counter 4 WR sets with an additional CB instead of a LB. Play a 4-2-5 instead of a 4-3-4. Jerry Hughes will have to win the LOS battle to get after Brady. Defense: 2. Dont blitz much - Brady will carve you up. Instead make sure everyone is covered to frustrate Brady. The fins' defense was winning the LOS battles. Gronk was missed. Among all the Pats wideouts, he alone has the size and athleticism to come down with 50/50 and 33/67 balls. I have no idea how to make it work with Gronk. Against the Fins: Our guards and tackles will have their hands full with Suh and co. Seemed like Miami would be susceptible to an inside zone blocking scheme though, which the Pats were not so good at. Hopefully, McD took good notes.