transplantbillsfan
-
Posts
10,425 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by transplantbillsfan
-
-
3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:
Um, not really.
1 - Keyshawn Johnson (814 receptions, 10,571 yards, 64 tds)
7 - Terry Glenn (593 receptions; 8823 yards, 14.9 career ypr)
18 - Eddie Kennison (548 receptions; 8,345 yards, 15.2 career ypr)
19 - Marvin Harrison (HOF)
24 - Eric Moulds (764 receptions, 9,995 yards, all-pro (second team) twice)
31 - Alex Van D yke (bust)
34 - Amari Toomer (668 receptions, 9,497 yards; 14.2 career ypc; huge game in the SB vs the 19-0 Pats)
41 - Bryan Still (bust)
43 - Muhsin Muhammed (860 receptions, 11,438 yards, 62 TDs)
52 - Bobby Engram (650 receptions)
56 - Derrick Mayes (bust; one decent season in Seattle in 1999)
89 - Terrell Owens (HOF)
...
135 - Joe Horn (603 receptions; 8,744 yards, 14.2 ypr, 58 TDs)
153 - Jermaine Lewis (great career as a returner; 2-time all pro)
The fact that you tried to make a guy who was an All-Pro twice as a punt returner really says everything here.
If you're going to make an argument, don't reach.
We need a #1 or #2 WR... not a punt returner.
Focus on that
7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:Unbelievable how you miss the point.
You look ONLY at the receivers. Thing is, trades have two sides. You get something. And you give stuff up. And yet not a single word about the whole reason why massive trades consistently make teams worse.
Yes, you get, on the average, better players further up.
Um, DUH!
Nobody argues you tend to get better players further up.
Your post is precisely what you get from a person like you. You're not a Bills fan, you're a Josh Allen fan.
So it doesn't even occur to you to address the stuff you have to give up, because it just doesn't matter to you. How Josh is directly affected is all that you think about.
Point is, it matters to the team what you have to give up.
Massey-Thaler and all the other studies say the same thing about this. Simply, trading up and giving up major draft assets like extra ones and twos is a horrible idea unless you are trading up for a potential franchise QB. Trades like this produce overall poor results at a high rate. Every study says the same thing. Every single one.
-
3 hours ago, Pete said:
I would love one of the big 3. Show me how you would make that happen? Ditka looks increasingly stupid for trading his whole draft for Ricky Williams. The only way Bills are getting into the top 10 is making a RIcky Williams deal
What a terrible example!
At least use the 2011 Julio Jones trade. That's worse case scenario. Also look at the Mahomes and Jameson Williams trade up.
Good grief at least be a little more realistic with your examples.
-
3 hours ago, Pete said:
A numerical argument for trading back and not trading up
Bills cap space= $2,898,830
That is for 51 players, we would like to have 90 going into camp.
90-51=49 players still needed
Bills need 1 RB3= 1 players needed, who will get high reps this season.
Most every special teams position is needed.
draft picks 28, 60, 128, 133, 144, 160, 163, 200, 204, 248.
Bills only have 2 picks in the first 127. We do not have ammo to move up high.
We have too many needs for prominent roles to give away precious draft assets.
Considering our many needs, IMO Beane would be better trading back, and stocking up on top 100 draft picks
There... I fixed it for you with the bolded.
Buffalo at this moment only has 2 true NEEDS on the team. A WR and RB for the roster.
The rest of the things you had there arenwants... McBeane may disagree.
You said Center. Did you think Beane was lying about McGovern shifting to Center?
You said Safety. That's just a want on your part. We have 2 Safeties on the team who have started many NFL games and 2 backups who have been in the system for a while.
You also neglected the $10m CAP space we get June 1st.
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:
The only sure thing WR in this draft is MHJ. Bills have 0% chance at getting him. Even if they mortgaged their future to somehow get to 8-10 to pick Odunze, he's not a sure thing imo. Obviously very talented but so were some of those other guys as mentioned. He might have a good career but maybe not superstar level.
Don't worry, I only have the Bills winning 9-10 games this year. They might have a top 20 pick next year plus Vikings 2 and their own 2 means 3 picks in the top 50 or so. I think they should let the chips fall as they may this year and reload next year.
So funny story... my eyes are apparently going bad and sometimes I look at these posts on my 8 inch tablet. I make the text bigger, which cuts off usernames. It's kinda nice because I read every post without bias against the name.
As soon as I got to the bolded line, I knew it would be only a couple posters... you were one of them
-
1
-
2
-
-
4 hours ago, Tortured Soul said:
Using your hits and misses, a 52% success rate in Round 1 (11 of 21) vs. a 27% success rate in Rounds 2 and 3 (14 of 52).
So, you’d be better off trading down, getting a 2 and a 3 for a 1, and giving yourself a cumulative 54% chance at success.
Actually... you'd be better getting one of the top 3 WRs in the draft than either of those scenarios.
Diana Russini posted an article going back a few weeks ago that goes back 13 years. Top 3 WR has the highest hit %.
-
22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I mean I gave you examples...and I definitely do not agree about 2021. I did not find that to be a great draft in the day 2 and day 3 range at WR.
Again... hindsight is 20/20 here. You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class.
22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:So all I am saying, every draft is very different. You can't just look at a hit rate from one draft and then equally compare it to the hit rate of the next draft which has totally different level of talent in it, not to mention, total different level of complexity too on how the draft falls based on the strength and weaknesses of other positions affecting teams decisions too.
I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft. I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts. And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous."
1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%.
2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are. TO???? Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed? Yep!
That's 37.5%. Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs.
Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more?
Go find a draft where this doesn't play out. Sure seems like my original premise is correct.
-
35 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
For deep WR drafts, just look at 1996. Yeah, a long time ago, but it was ridiculous.
Okay... but I think it just solidifies my point further.
1st round
1 1 NYJ Keyshawn Johnson
1 7 NWE Terry Glenn
1 18 STL Eddie Kennison
1 19 IND Marvin Harrison HOF
1 24 BUF Eric Moulds
2nd & 3rd round
2 31 NYJ Alex Van *****
2 34 NYG Amani Toomer
2 41 SDG Bryan Still
2 43 CAR Muhsin Muhammad
2 52 CHI Bobby Engram
2 56 GNB Derrick Mayes
3 89 SFO Terrell Owens HOF
3 94 DAL Stepfret Williams
-
52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
This lacks a lot of context. Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example. Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019.
The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position. So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR.
In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy. But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry.
This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.
So give us some historically deep draft classes. I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff. The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.
Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:
Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:
The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).
From PFF regarding the 2021 class:
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase
The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.
Sound familiar?
-
1
-
-
5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3. It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.
1st Round Wide Receivers
2023
1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba
1 LAC Quentin Johnston
1 BAL Zay Flowers
1 MIN Jordan Addison
2022
1 ATL Drake London
1 NYJ Garrett Wilson
1 NOR Chris Olave
1 DET Jameson Williams
1 WAS Jahan Dotson
1 TEN Treylon Burks
2021
1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase
1 MIA Jaylen Waddle
1 PHI DeVonta Smith
1 NYG Kadarius Toney
1 BAL Rashod Bateman
2020
1 LVR Henry Ruggs III
1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR
1 DAL CeeDee Lamb
1 PHI Jalen Reagor
1 MIN Justin Jefferson
1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk
2019
1 BAL Marquise Brown
1 NWE N'Keal Harry
2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers
2023
2 CAR Jonathan Mingo
2 GB Jayden Reed
2 KC Rashee Rice
2 DEN Marvin Mims
3 HOU Nathaniel Dell
3 NYG Jalin Hyatt
3 CLE Cedric Tillman
3 IND Josh Downs
3 ARI Michael Wilson
3 LVR Tre Tucker
2022
2 GNB Christian Watson
2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson
2 HOU John Metchie
2 NWE Tyquan Thornton
2 PIT George Pickens
2 IND Alec Pierce
2 KAN Skyy Moore
3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.
3 DAL Jalen Tolbert
3 CLE David Bell
3 SFO Danny Gray
2021
2 NYJ Elijah Moore
2 ARI Rondale Moore
2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge
2 LAR Tutu Atwell
2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.
3 LAC Josh Palmer
3 WAS Dyami Brown
3 GNB Amari Rodgers
3 HOU Nico Collins
3 CLE Anthony Schwartz
2020
2 CIN Tee Higgins
2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.
2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.
2 DEN KJ Hamler
2 PIT Chase Claypool
2 LAR Van Jefferson
2 NYJ Denzel Mims
3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.
3 LVR Bryan Edwards
3 BAL Devin Duvernay
2019
2 SFO Deebo Samuel
2 TEN A.J. Brown
2 KAN Mecole Hardman
2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside
2 IND Parris Campbell
2 ARI Andy Isabella
2 SEA D.K. Metcalf
3 PIT Diontae Johnson
3 SFO Jalen Hurd
3 WAS Terry McLaurin
3 BAL Miles Boykin
Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.
There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft. The hit rate there is 60%. If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%. If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...
think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft??? Rome Odunze, anyone????
Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys. 27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.
-
3
-
1
-
-
I strongly believe if Odunze falls out of the top 10 Beane is going to work some magic on the phones.
Dude screams Buffalo.
-
1
-
-
So Diana Russini looked back at the last 13 years of draft classes to examine bust potential of 1st round WR in this article
It was objective. Here's the criteria:
To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria:
Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games?
Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons?
No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season?
Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option?
Findings for WRs were 63% bust or reach in the 1st round and just 17.5% Superstar.
However, that same criteria was also put to drafting a WR in the top 10 amd the bust or reach rate drops to 47% and the Superstar rate jumps to 29.4%.
Much to the chagrin of @Thurman#1 this sure seems to support the idea of getting one of the Big 3.
And what's fascinating is that while some *ahem* argue we can find great WRs in later rounds, listening to the "Move the Sticks" podcast today with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks, they actually listed all the 2nd round draft picks from 2020-2022.
Pretty terrible list.
Go back and look at 2nd and 3rd round WRs drafted over the last 4 or 5 years compared to the 1st round and especially compared to WRs drafted top 10.
Utterly forgettable.
-
On 4/12/2024 at 7:36 PM, Thurman#1 said:
Trading up and getting one of the big three sounds like a lead-in to failure to me.
As Alpha said yesterday, "Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win. No team has given up multiple premium picks to trade for a proven top end WR and paid them big money and gone on to win a SB (which is what some want us to do to get Auiyuk, Higgins, etc). No team has ever signed a FA WR to top of the league money and then turned that into a SB win. No team has ever made a big trade up in the first round using multiple premium picks and won a SB (which many want to send multiple firsts and multiple 2nds to get up into the top 12). There is no example of a major investment like that in a WR ever leading to a SB trophy."
Alpha continued, "There are however countless examples where teams have won the Super Bowl without having a top 5 WR. In the past 20 Super Bowls only 1 team had a WR1 drafted in the top 15 of the draft (Mike Evans)."
Precisely.
You do NOT win because you have an excellent WR group. You win because you have an excellent team.
Yes, Mahomes won one with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL. He also won two with an excellent TE and a mediocre to below average WR group. That proves the point. It wasn't the great WR that was the reason for him winning that first one. It was having a consistently good team and a damn good QB.
They got that great WR with a massive tradeup that had them giving away the next year's first rounder, right? Oh, no, wait. They did not do that in any way, shape or form. They did indeed trade up giving away the next year's first. But for a quarterback. Not a WR.
That's what Massey-Thaler tells you to do. That's what ALL the studies tell you. Never do huge trade-ups giving away premium assets except if you are going after a franchise QB.
It's not just the studies making that case. That's what the story of the Chiefs tells you. Reid and Mahomes didn't need a great WR to win, as their last two wins show. But if you get a great WR, don't do it with a massive tradeup. The Chiefs didn't. They're an excellent example of doing things the right way.
You claim that all five of the last five SB winners had an elite weapon. Not true.
Mike Evans is a terrific WR. But he wasn't elite the year the Bucs won it and he came in with 1006 yards. Same with Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite. And while Kelce was maybe still elite last year, for the first time in years it's arguable. He was clearly showing his age and his production showed it.
In any case, the Bills appear to have two young guys who are closing in on elite status already, and both improving. Cook was the 3rd best RB in the league in yards from scrimmage. And Kincaid had a sensational year for a rookie and was visibly improving.
You say you'll "be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs. One of them might pan out and become Elite. I think Josh being their QB will help them with that."
We're in agreement there. There are a lot of really good prospects this year after the big three.
Just went back and read this to humor you and still couldn't even make it to the end
Bruh... what happened to you... your arguments used to be much stronger.
Elite weapons are Elite weapons. Sounds like you define them by the stats they have in the year your labeling them while simultaneously neglecting the fact that Cooper Kupp had one of the best seasons by a WR in NFL history the year the Rams won the Super Bowl.
Mike Evans and Travis Kelce are 1st ballot HOFers. Are you #^%@ing serious???
Plus there's the whole Godwin and Gronk thing when Brady won with the Bucs.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
Says the guy who knew that Tyrod Taylor was going to be a franchise QB. Remember when you said he'd shown that he was "near-elite"? For thousands and thousand and posts, I tried to tell you you were almost certainly wrong. For years. Over thousands and thousands and thousands of posts you told me how wrong I was and how my arguments were pointless.
Says the guy who absolutely knew that Josh Allen was going to be a failure before the draft. Remember that too? How you spent months telling us how there was no way he could ever succeed because of your careful study and complete understanding of completion percentages and how they couldn't change? Remember those days?
Remember how many "pointless" posts I spent telling you you were wrong? Yeah, I was pointless then and pointless now. Or so it seemed to the guy who knew what he knew about Tyrod and about how it was impossible for Josh to succeed. How pointless were those posts, actually, Transie? What they actually were was right on point. You just didn't see.
Your pattern.
You're doing some thing stupid, as usual. This time in particular, though. You don't have the ability to tell me what the crux of my argument is. Not without reading my posts. So ***** off about the crux of my argument.
We have a bunch of holes on this team. One or possibly two safeties, DT, pass rushing Edge, IOL, CB. Depth elsewhere. And we need the draft to start filling them.
And yet again, making a huge trade up is a failing strategy. Massey-Thaler shows it, as do all the studies. It's an idea that has been shown to increase the odds of failure. Again and again.
But I'm sure you won't read. 'Course you didn't read the stuff about Tyrod or either. Remember? Remember how hopeless you thought Josh was?
Resorting to ad hominem now?
-
15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
You say you didn't bother to read most of my post.
I understand. I pointed out areas where you were wrong. It's tough to read that sometimes. A lot wrong with this post I am now replying to also.
If you want to say we only have two glaring holes, I guess it depends on your definition of glaring. We have a number of holes. Neither of our starting safeties has ever consistently started at safety. That's a hole. We have a serious lack of pass rushers. That's a hole, and one that needs to be addressed in some way and pronto. Both of those needs are far more serious than RB. We also have weak and unproven spots at IOL and CB.
We had to let a ton of people go because of the cap and that created holes. Kid yourself if you want, but that's the way it is.
Certainly WR is one of our biggest holes. Very far from the only one.
As for a #1, plenty of teams win Super Bowls without them. Get a guy in the first two rounds.
Odunze, Nabers and MHJ are absolutely NOT worth using a strategy which has a success record of zero percent in NFL history in producing titles. The idea is dumb, unless one of them falls far enough to be gotten at a semi-reasonable price, in the late teens, maybe. Problem is the odds of that happening are close to zero.
Yes, Mahomes had Kelce. Kelce last year had less than a thousand yards last year and yet they won a title. There's every reason to think Kincaid will be in the thousand yard neighborhood this year. We don't need a #1 anymore than Mahomes does.
But picking a WR in the first two rounds makes a ton of sense.
Took me years to figure this out, but reading whole posts of yours is often pointless.
3rd-5th paragraphs I addressed already.
We disagree on glaring holes at positions other than WR.
The crux of your argument is that there are glaring holes equal to or bigger than WR.
I disagree with that. I actually don't even think that there's an argument that WR doesn't stand alone as the biggest and most glaring need.
No point in this discussion if you can't see that.
-
1
-
-
6 hours ago, FireChans said:
This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.
if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?
-
2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
Stopped reading after the first few paragraphs. It's not that you're missing the point, it's that our underlying assumption of this team overall differs, which throws us off in different directions on the WR discussion.
The Bills already have a good team. In another thread I posit the belief that Buffalo will be better next season already.
Since I posted that thread (if I have the timing right), the Bills have signed Samuel, 2 veteran DTs, Mike Edwards, Lael Collins and possibly Toohill if that was the timing.
And we traded away Diggs.
I posted that thread because I believe most position groups are poised to be better than they were last year along with our coaching staff.
You can disagree with that, which you clearly do. But the FACT remains that there are really only 2 positions on this team with glaring holes: RB & WR.
You don't draft RBs in round 1 and we'll be fine getting a guy like Estime in mid to later rounds. But our WR corps is Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, and Shorter. That's it. Yes, we have several futures contracts with potential, but unlike you, I'd rather not roll the dice on the lesser known guys.
There's a reason pretty much everyone is talking about drafting a WR very early. We need one and it's probably the one hole that absolutely needs to be filled. If our top 3 WRs going into 2024 are Shakir, Samuel & Hollins, I don't think anyone is feeling great.
And it's pretty Universal in this draft who the top 3 guys are and pretty Universal they're in a tier of their own. Yes, I will be excited if we draft a guy like Legette. But after the top 3 guys the scouts and draft experts vary wildly on opinions. Legette is Joe Marino's 4th rated WR and has a 1st round grade. He's Brugler's 15th rated WR and has a 3rd round grade.
Odunze, Nabers & MHJ are guys worth the resources. Mahomes may have won 2 Super Bowls without Hill, but he still had Kelce for both. And the training wheels of Hill & Kelce certainly helped him get there twice previously.
Get Josh his #1.
-
3
-
-
9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
Matt Ryan and Pat Mahomes are BOTH the models. Neither one won a Super Bowl with any top ten WR on his roster. Both teach the same thing, though from opposite directions.
Mahomes won with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL.
If you're talking about "drafted in the top 10," that's fine except it's a crap shoot. Ryan's MVP season and Super Bowl loss season was with one of the best WRs in the NFL who happened to be a top 10 pick. Mahomes's first 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 loss and 1 win) were with 2 of the best weapons in all of the NFL. They both had red flags due to character concerns that dropped them in the draft.
9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:Ryan teaches that even having an absolutely sensational WR on the team guarantees nothing and in fact led to far more losing than winning. Mahomes teaches that you can win SBs without blowing huge resources on WRs. Didn't have a top ten pick or even a first round pick at WR on any of those SB rosters.
Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL. Did you think I was saying it was?
See my previous comments on Mahomes. Of course you can get an Elite WR later in the draft, but hindsight is 20/20 and those players aren't guaranteed. The argument is silly and looks only in the rearview mirror.
Nothing is guaranteed with the top 3 WRs, but in particular MHJ & Odunze look to be as close to those can't miss/high floor prospects there have been in many years.
9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:Josh doesn't "deserve 2 elite weapons." He deserves far more than that. He deserves a team around him that can win a Super Bowl. History shows that you do that with a good roster and that you don't need elite weapons.
Teams that play for a Lombardi have at least 1 Elite weapon more often than not. Look at the 5 most recent Super Bowls. All 10 teams had 1 or more Elite Weapon.
9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:Another thing Josh deserves is for his team NOT to use a strategy that has worked out and produced SB winners an extremely small percentage of the time. If we had a top ten pick, one of the top three WRs would probably be a good move. Trading major resources away to get into the top ten for a receiver, though, is dumb. Particularly in a year with great depth in talented WRs. It would lower our chances of success.
I'll be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs. One of them might pan out and become Elite. I think Josh being their QB will help them with that.
But trading up and getting one of the Big 3 (Odunze just screams Buffalo to me) sounds more appealing.
-
Matt Ryan ain't Josh Allen, first of all.
Second of all, the Falcons blew that Super Bowl. And getting to the NFC Conference Championship game in Julio's 2nd year is a success to me.
The model is Mahomes. Dude had 2 HOFers for his first 4 years as he figured things out. Still had Kelce the last 2 years.
I think Josh deserves 2 Elite weapons for once in his career. We can hope Kincaid gets there. Beane might try to outsmart the room and get Legette/Mitchell/McConkey/Worthy/etc.... but is there seriously anyone who would object to trading away our 1st & 4th this year, 1st next year, and swapping 60 with 75 this year to jump up to 9 for Chicago's pick to get Odunze???
That was Joe Marino's massive trade up proposal on his podcast today. He didn't directly say it but he usually uses the PFF mock simulator, so I assume those values are about right... and if you think back to the Chiefs trading up for Mahomes with the Bills I. 2018, that's in the ballpark.
That would still leave us with 8 picks this year (a 3rd, a 4th, 3 5ths, 2 6ths & a 7th) and 8 picks next year (two 2nds, a 3rd, two 4ths, a 5th, a 6th, a 7th)...
Plus next year we'll have CAP space to play with. The Falcons had the 2nd worst CAP situation in the NFL as the 2012 season (Julio's 2nd season) started. They weren't much better the following year. They also had 6 total picks in 2011 and 2012.
The 2024 Bills wouldn't be anything like the 2011 Atlanta Falcons. 4 more draft picks. A better QB. More CAP space.
I want us to trade up for 1 of the Big 3. I'll be fine if it doesn’t happen and I think Josh Allen will elevate whatever WR(s) we get from the next tier(s), but I think if this team really wants to practice what it preaches and not force Josh to be Superman all the time, we need at least one HOF talent guy. I don't even know if Diggs is getting a Gold jacket. I do know that he should have stuck around in Buffalo if he wanted one, because the QB is largely determinant in that respect. See Kelce and Hill for reference.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:
No way I’m trading pick 28, pick 60 and next years 1st to move up to pick 9 for a WR. Chiefs traded less to us to move up for a QB.
I actually think that's a pretty good deal. KC got a pretty good deal to trade up for Mahomes, but they still gave up their 3rd that year along with 2 1sts.
The Julio Jones trade from 27 to 6 consisted of 2 1sts, 2nd round draft picks in consecutive years, and 4th round draft picks in consecutive years.
If Buffalo traded up for Odunze or Nabers in the top 10 and only gave up their 2nd this year and 1st next year after swapping 1sts, I'd be pretty ecstatic, honestly. Then we can just root for Minny to tank next year to make that 2nd round pick we acquired from the Texans more valuable and maybe use one of our comp picks combined with that pick to trade back into the late first, where we (hopefully) would be picking anyway.
And we still have 7 picks in rounds 4-7 this year for Beane to play around with and use as ammunition to trade back up into the 3rd or earlier than his picks to get guys he wants.
I just don't think that would be enough trade capital to trade up.
1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:Arizona wants 3 first round picks for #4 overall. 🤣
Can you blame them?
-
3 hours ago, Malazan said:
We saw them a lot in the 2020 off season. I'm not saying the videos mean anything at all, but he didn't have an issue with them in 2020 so I have my doubts that the bills, his agent, whomever his QB coach is who would be greatly in favor of said things are just being ignored by Allen
That's what happens when you acquire a new Pro Bowl WR via trade.
Remember all the videos of Tua to Tyreek?
We haven't done that since 2020.
-
7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
How do you know? Are you with him 24/7? He doesn’t have a wife that’s social media savvy you know.Why do you need JA videos so badly? That's just creepy
-
28 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I’m just saying.. if we could get some JA videos in the next few weeks, that would be great.
We need PR stunts, now???
Mahomes loves the spotlight. You can see that based on the QB Netflix series and all his commercials.
Josh... not so much.
Just because you don't see it don't mean he's not working.
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, BigDingus said:
Maybe, I'm not so sure. Is there any team that has achieved major success pulling off a trade like for a non-QB player?
When you're desperately trying to get younger, you need those picks. Who's to say you don't find a great WR with those 2 x 1st rounders & 2 x 2nd rounders?
Even the Diggs to Buffalo trade showed how thar works. Vikings just replaced him with Jefferson, an even better WR. Same could even be said about the 2017 draft. We got Tre White out of it & a pick that helped us move up for Josh, but the Chiefs got Mahomes.
Point is, we sound desperate right now, but a great player could be right there at all those spots if we just stay patient.
So maybe the Falcons are a cautionary tale, maybe not.
After that Julio Jones trade, the Falcons still made the playoffs in his rookie year, losing the Wildcard. But the next year, they only lost 3 games and made it to the NFC Championship game.
The problem is, they bottomed out the next 3 years not making the playoffs and winning 4, 6, and then 8 games before Ryan's MVP Season in 2016 and their SB loss.
4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:That is a disgusting amount to pay for a non QB. And they may be the next great tandem or he could be the next Sammy Watkins.
I think Sammy Watkins would have been a pretty good NFL WR if he had a QB.
4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:Your trade proposals are always so extreme and unrealistic. There is 0% chance Beane is paying that for a WR in what is probably the deepest and richest WR draft in history.
C'mon man... after yesterday I think everyone would have learned their lesson in speaking in such absolutes.
-
A visual argument against trading down & for trading up
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
⁰
I said drafting one of the first 3 WRs. In 2019 Deebo was #3
Interesting perspective, but honest question, do you really think it we keep going back 15-20 years that trend keeps up? We can take the time to do it as long as you acknowledge your flawed premise. Of course I'd do the same.
I didn't include Ruggs as a hit, so why does the fact that I brought it up make you so upset?
I actually think listing those QBs works against you