transplantbillsfan
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Posts posted by transplantbillsfan
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So... let's see how our roster improves starting tonight. I said I think the Bills will be better this upcoming season... I still think they will.
As of this moment, just hours before the draft, this is how I view the Buffalo Bills roster at the moment.
And yes, we can field a 53 man team that consists of zero guys I'd strictly put in the "Practice Squad" category.
LOCKS (1st-5th round rookies included)
Close to locks
Baseline rosterable depth
Players the team seems somehow invested in
Rookie 6th or 7th round pick
STARTER 2ND 3RD 4TH
QB Josh Allen Mitchell Trubisky Shane Buechele
RB James Cook Ty Johnson Ray Davis Darrynton Evans-
WR Khalil Shakir Justin Shorter Tyrell Shavers
WR Curtis Samuel Andy Isabella Bryan Thompson
WR Keon Coleman Mack Hollins KJ Hamler
TE Dalton Kincaid Dawson Knox Quintin Morris Tre' McKitty
FB Reggie Gilliam
LT Dion Dawkins Ryan Van Demark Travis Clayton Richard Gouraige
LG David Edwards Alec Anderson
C Connor McGovern Will Clapp
RG O'Cyrus Torrence Sedrick Van Pran-Granger Kevin Jarvis
RT Spencer Brown La'el Collins. Tylan Grable Tommy Doyle
STARTER 2ND 3RD 4TH
LDE Greg Rousseau Javon Soloman Kameron Cline
LDT DaQuan Jones Austin Johnson Eli Ankou
RDT Ed Oliver DeWayne Carter. DeShawn Williams
RDE Von Miller AJ Epenesa Casey Toohill Kingsley Jonathan
WLB Matt Milano Edefuan Ulufoshio
MLB Terrel Bernard Baylon Spector
SLB Nicholas Morrow Dorian Williams
LCB Rasul Douglas Kaiir Elam Kyron Brown
SS Cole Bishop Taylor Rapp Kendall Williamson
FS Mike Edwards Cam Lewis Damar Hamlin
RCB Christian Benford Taron Johnson Daequan Hardy Ja'Marcus Ingram
STARTER 2ND 3RD 4TH
PK Tyler Bass
P Sam Martin Matt Haack
H Sam Martin Matt Haack
PR Khalil Shakir
KR Khalil Shakir Andy Isabella
LS Reid Ferguson
53 man roster
34 LOCKS
10 close to locks
4 baseline rosterable depth
5 Players the team seems somehow invested in
*EDITED POST DRAFT... UDFAs not included*
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7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:
Larry Fitzgerald is busy. Outside of him, that player doesn't exist.
Rome Odunze
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On 4/23/2024 at 6:00 PM, Adam727 said:
Spotrac has the Bills at 5.8mil under the projected cap next year. That's before accounting for this year's rookies, next year's rookies, with only 38 players on the roster, and without re-signing Spencer Brown and Rasul Douglas if they are part of the Bills' plans going forward.
It's better than this year was but unless I'm missing something, next year isn't great either. 2026 currently looks ok.
First of all, Buffalo didn't restructure Allen's entire contract this offseason because they're pushing it into next offseason. I think that's about an additional $8m. Then there's the fact that we have Von Miller's contract still on the books next season, but once we cut him (like most project we will), we save a bunch of CAP space.
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10 minutes ago, Prospector said:
I am hoping for Nabers over Odunze
I'll be excited but nervous about him. He excites me as a player. He doesn't sound like the same type of "process" Buffalo Bills guy the other 2 guys are. With Diggs gone, I want the most team first Elite WR we can get.
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15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
There is NO player other than a QB that I would trade all those picks for. None. The 28th, 60th and 2025 1st should be three starters, and 128-160-163 collectively have a good chance of being a fourth starter. There is practically no way that the guy you get at 9 could be more valuable than the combined value of four starters.
I'm really tired of this narrative.
What I'll say about a WR corps is that I don't believe it's just that it's a sum of all its parts.
Buffalo has had so much success in the passing game since 2020 because of Stefon Diggs. Davis, McKenzie, Beasely, & Shakir have all benefitted over the years in their production largely because of his presence.
Cincy has had so much success over the last few years because of Jamarr Chase. Higgins & Boyd benefitted from his presence.
KC was so successful for years because of 2 HOF pass catching monsters and maybe one of the most talented and unique WRs (even though he's a head case) in NFL history in Hill. Sure... KC won the Super Bowl the last couple years, but their offense very obviously took a massive step backwards.
This team runs through Josh Allen, period. Give him the best weapons possible. That might not be an Odunze in a massive trade up. It might be BTJr or Legette or Worthy... but honestly... if this team isn't looking for whoever they believe "their guy" is at WR in round 1, tonight is a massive letdown.
Buffalo has 10 picks in this draft and is forecasted to have 9 picks next year. Our roster this year is honestly already at the point where there's absolutely no way 10 or even 9 or 8 draft picks make this team.
Trade up! Trade up! Trade up!!!!!
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True Shocker: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Realistic Shocker: Rome Odunze
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9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
And again, there's no particular reason to think the Julio trade was a success. They got a terrific WR, an all-timer.
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8 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:
I'll say this. I'd be happier with Leggette at 28 than I would trading up for Brian Thomas who I think is a pretty similar skill set. BTJ is a slightly better athlete but Leggette is thick and can be a returner and a blocker as well so it's really what's your flavor kind of thing. But if the Bills spend a lot to trade up for BTJ I think that's pretty stupid as I think you can trade BACK and still get Leggette at the top of round 2
The only thing I can think is that BTJ is younger and maybe Brady has some inside knowledge on him or something. Otherwise I think it's a dumb move. They would be mortgaging the future in hopes that there's more to BTJ than meets the eye and maybe there's not.
I would be both excited and nervous if we traded up for BTJ.
Honestly though... I'd be both excited and nervous for almost any WR we draft in any round simply because of the inevitable pressure on them to immediately step in and produce.
However, I would be just excited if we traded up for Odunze. For some reason he's the only one where it's just excitement. Some nerves would creep back in even if we traded up for Nabers, even though I know he might have the highest ceiling in the draft.
I'm not even thinking about MHJ.
5 hours ago, blacklabel said:It's all about the engagement these days. They throw a wild hot take out there, not because they believe it but they know it'll prompt people to respond and start talking about it. And for sure some of them probably try to call their shots and rank someone super high when the general consensus has that same player ranked much lower. It is what it is, I guess.
Absolutely not true with Joe Marino.
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1 hour ago, Adam727 said:
Only if they think he's a starting CB in the NFL. The Bills are in salary cap jail for the next few years, early picks should be WR, DLine, OT, CB. If he's the best player left on their board and they think he'll translate to CB in the NFL it wouldn't be my first choice but I wouldn't hate it. Safeties are cheap enough in FA that even though it's a big need, I'd be disappointed with a Safety in round 1.
No we aren't... our salary cap situation is at its lowest this offseason and will get significantly better from here on out.
56 minutes ago, DCOrange said:This is a myth. He played WR basically his entire high school career.
He played QB as a Senior
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14 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:
If he was a round 1 guy he would have destroyed the competition at the senior bowl. He did not. He had 5 years in college and was only good for 1 of those years when by then he was 2-3 years older and more seasoned than everyone else. He has had a lot of drops. I think he can be a faster Gabe Davis type. Would you use a 1st round pick on Gabe Davis? I like him but not in round 1. To me he's a 2nd rounder
You're using the Senior Bowl as a measuring stick? He played in the SEC and destroyed his competition at South Carolina in 2023.
The one-year-wonder conversation is more nuanced. There were a lot of circumstances involved with that, including a late shift to the position and a motorcycle accident, among other things.
I'm not advocating a trade up. But I'd be happy with him at 28.
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22 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:
He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart
11 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:I was actually excited to watch until you told me this. That’s laughable and not worth my time
Can I ask you guys why you think Xavier Leggette is so clearly not a 1st rounder?
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13 minutes ago, NI Bills Fan said:
Thanks OP. I listened to the episode earlier (audio only) so it's good to actually see the board 👍
10 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:It was a tough listen on only audio as it was hard to follow along, but probably way better on youtube.
Thanks for sharing
Yeah, I listened this morning thinking he'd go through the players, but he didn't. Still, it was good to listen to it first and then look at the document to view all the players themselves.
6 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart
@GunnerBill also has Leggette as his 4th WR, from what I can remember.
Plus, there's been a lot of talk among the media that Leggette could slip into round 1. What that likely means is that while the national media has one perspective on him, NFL teams have another.
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You can watch the episode with his explanation of it here, but right below the video I posted the link to his Google Doc that shows both his horizontal and vertical draft boards. As he says in the video, the horizontal one may be most interesting and relevant because it breaks players down into tiers.:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d6y5YK7S5pN8WgqF5t6qJSvpyQsA44hDkts8hPHDDSs/htmlview#
He only did 170 players this year because he only had 5 months to do it, unlike previous years where he does it year round.
Might be a good tool to look at on draft night.
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13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
Thanks. I only listened once, but I think he said when he got to Buffalo, he was coached to run. I don't think he said that's what he was coached to do in the more recent years.
For the past few years, he certainly hasn't played like he was told to run if his first or second read wasn't there. He was playing out of the pocket for as long as he could.
But he specifically said in his first years (plural) in Buffalo he was coached to run while talking about his excitement of a scheme by Joe Brady to get him more outlets on the field in the passing game. He may not have directly stated he was coached to run in recent years, but at best it sounds like he believed the passing scheme itself didn't provide enough realistic opportunities in the passing game, forcing him to run.
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On 4/2/2024 at 11:49 AM, Shaw66 said:
No, Transplant.
You're talking about what offense the Bills coaches choose to run. I'm talking about how well Allen executes the offense he's given to run. Those are two different things.
The Bills do not give Allen plays with complex route trees and tell him to ignore half the routes. They do not do that. They give him plays just like the plays that every other team, including the Ravens, give to their QBs, and they expect him to execute those plays just like every other quarterback. Yes, the Bills may have some plays they give to Allen that most other teams don't give to their QB, but whatever they give him, they expect him to execute the entire play. The Bills offense is not sandlot football.
Shaw, listen to Allen’s PC the other day. In fact, skip to the last few minutes he talks about Joe Brady and what he's excited about.
Allen directly says he was coached previously to run. It's revealing. Go listen because it completely contradicts this belief.
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This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown.
It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft.
4. Buffalo Bills
This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.
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19 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
I think it's pretty important that they get as many top 100 picks as possible. We aren't 1 player away, so if a trade down helps us turn some of our later picks into more top 100s and Beane can still get star players, I'm all for it.
That said, our last build was too light on top end talent. When I look at KC, SF, PHI, BAL, CIN, and even DET they all have way more more top end talent than we did before our purge. As of right now, I feel like we only have 2 legitimate superstars on the team in Allen and Milano. I'd be shocked if we could make a real SB run without at least 4 more. Maybe Kincaid becomes one, Maybe Douglas becomes one.This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown.
It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft.
4. Buffalo Bills
This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.
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3 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Similar with DT and DE. Da'Quan is on a 1 yr deal and hasn't made it through the last 2 seasons. Draft a DT if there's a decent one anywhere near us. DE: Casey Toohill is a career journeyman at DE who has finally, after 7 years in the league, made it to where he started 8 games last year. Right now at DE we got Rousseau, Epenesa, the Ghost of Von Miller, and Toohill. *shudder* I'd say that 's a need.
Daquan is on a 2 year deal. And he's been EXTREMELY durable throughout his career, including his first year with Buffalo.
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43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
ok do you think the Falcons regret trading for Julio Jones lol
of course not, they got one of the best wideouts in NFL history. The fact that he didn't win a Super Bowl is completely irrelevant. Lots of great players never win Super Bowls and lots of mediocre ones do. That doesn't mean you want fewer great players and more mediocre ones on your roster
I guarantee the argument will be that the Falcons didn't win a Super Bowl.
I agree it's a completely ridiculous argument.
And this resource argument some are making also neglects the potential in a cost-controlled CHEAP #1 WR (the 2nd most expensive position) for at least 4 years. That $$$ savings should be part of the resource argument as well. Remember... Buffalo is going to suddenly get a lot more CAP space in future years and Free Agency is another aspect of team building.
Plus... 10 draft picks this year + 9 draft picks next year after our comp picks.
Worse case scenario is the 2011 trade model for Julio Jones. Falcons traded their 2011 1st, 2nd, 4th & 2012 1st & 4th.
This would still leave us with 7 total picks in this year's draft and next year's draft. Plus, next year's draft we'd still have 2 2nd rounders... one of which very well might be in the early to late 30s.
That one is I think the steepest price, though.
I think the Lions trade up for Jameson Williams and the Chiefs trade up for Mahomes are other models to look at that might be even better.
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15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
More, looking at the lists of top three guys in the draft you put up, one question occurs.
How many Super Bowl winners are there?
Again, a team that gives up top-level draft assets to trade up for a top WR has never won a Super Bowl.
Never.
Correlative, not causal.
Are you really trying to argue that the Bengals are not winning a Super Bowl because they drafted Jamarr Chase? Has it been CeDee Lamb holding back the Cowboys over the last few years? That the Falcons didn't win the Super Bowl because they drafted Julio Jones? That Drake London is holding the Falcons back right now or Garrett Wilson is doing the same for the Jets?
It's the QB, first and foremost, who's obviously the most critical piece to any team winning the Super Bowl.
Buffalo has their QB for the next 5-10+ years.
When did Josh Allen turn into an Elite QB? Obviously (and Josh directly said this yesterday) it happened once he got an Elite WR in Diggs.
What do we no longer have???
You alluded to me not being a Bills fan and just being a Josh Allen fan... that's pretty rich coming from the guy who really doesn't do anything on this message board other than drop grenades and plant landmines all over the place.
I'm absolutely not without my flaws, but you painted me so horribly wrong. If anything, I'm a Bills homer with Bills colored glasses. I know how that's how some see me and I'm fine with it. Your assessment just proves you're not very observant... or maybe you just let your anger cloud your judgment too much.
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Another point... while I mention "hits..." all that really means is that you have a pretty decent starter.
We're hoping for more than a decent starter, though. We want a WR who can be a pro-bowler if not an All-Pro, right?
I've been thinking a bit about this since I started the thread, because I think the reality is we all want a DUDE at WR, not a JAG. So I googled it to see if there was any data out there. Found this on a reddit board and it looks like someone else actually did the work. I cross-checked it and looks accurate. If you go back several years to give WRs over the span of 2000-2017 (18 years total), here are Pro Bowl %s for those years slotted by draft pick in the top 100:
Pick/ Pro-Bowl%
1-10/ 55%
11-20/ 44%
21-30/ 33%
31-40/ 24%
41-50/ 18%
51-60/ 16%
61-70/ 16%
71-80/ 9%
81-90/ 10%
91-100/ 12%
Plus, The Athletic examined it over a span of 10 years a couple years ago by round and position
https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04/13/nfl-draft-analysis-2022/
Wide Receivers only
1st round 42.4%
2nd-3rd round 36.4%
4+ round 21.2%
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3 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I agree with you completely on the need for elite talent.
Where the debate seems to lie is with what is the best strategy to acquire same?As I pointed out to @transplantbillsfan above, the "hit rate" from taking one of the top-3 WR in the 1st round, and taking 1 of the top-2 WR in the 2nd round, are practically identical - 8/14 vs 6/10, 57% vs 60%. And some of those 2nd round players are arguably elite WR talent - AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr.
I concede you have an interesting theory. Lots of early 2nd rounders are productive NFL players.
I just went all the way back to 2010. It really falls back into scrubs. And other than the 4 you mentioned here, while a good number of early 2nd rounders are hits, few to none outside the 4 guys you just mentioned are stars to superstars.
Gotta go top 3 WRs for that.
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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:
Wow. Intelligent response. So full of substance. What a surprise, a big nothing from you.
Mmmhmmmm.... remember this Thurm when talking about QBs having an Elite weapon in almost all of the last 5 Super Bowls... both winners and losers????
@Thurman#1"Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite."
Love the way you ran away from that conversation right after me calling you out on Kupp, Evans and Kelce not being Elite.
I see that you keep responding to me... maybe I'll read them, but right now...
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24 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Unbelievable how you miss the point.
You look ONLY at the receivers. Thing is, trades have two sides. You get something. And you give stuff up. And yet not a single word about the whole reason why massive trades consistently make teams worse.
Yes, you get, on the average, better players further up.
Um, DUH!
Nobody argues you tend to get better players further up.
Your post is precisely what you get from a person like you. You're not a Bills fan, you're a Josh Allen fan.
So it doesn't even occur to you to address the stuff you have to give up, because it just doesn't matter to you. How Josh is directly affected is all that you think about.
Point is, it matters to the team what you have to give up.
Massey-Thaler and all the other studies say the same thing about this. Simply, trading up and giving up major draft assets like extra ones and twos is a horrible idea unless you are trading up for a potential franchise QB. Trades like this produce overall poor results at a high rate. Every study says the same thing. Every single one.
Guys... can someone find Thurm's sponsor... he's clearly losing it
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NFL draft rumors 2024
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
And our 1st this year, obviously.