Logic

I'm on record here as agreeing with that take. I believe a plea to a lesser charge, a fine, and minimal league discipline is the most likely outcome. I do not believe for a second that Rice will go to jail, because that's not how the American justice system tends to work for rich athletes. Still, the possibility of jail time exists, and to pretend that it doesn't is silly.

In all seriousness... If you can make this exact trade happen, I'll get a deluxe manicure, give you my home address, and cook you lobster tails beforehand.

I don't think the Kincaid and Cook outlooks are too optimistic. Cook already WAS statistically a top 10 running back last year, and Kincaid has the look of a year two breakout star. I like Shakir a lot, but it could be argued that that's the only one on your list that might be a bit optimistic, if only because I expect Curtis Samuel and a soon-to-be-signed vet WR to eat up some of his opportunities.

Thanks for this nugget. Allen also mentioned him first when recently asked about WRs in this year's draft. He seemed pretty knowledgeable about the class, and Nabers was the first name out of his mouth. He wanted Kincaid last year. Obviously, circumstances are quite different this year with Nabers being expected to go so high, but...we shall see. I think Joe Schoen at 5 would be the perfect trade partner. Failing that, the Bears at 9 seem very logical, too, should Odunze fall that far.

For what it's worth, I've since seen the "this much pot is a felony!" part redacted, and the correction noted that it is in fact a misdemeanor. Nevertheless, between the pot and his admitting that he was driving the Lambo, chargeable offenses are starting to pile up for Rice. The main questions are: How lenient will the judge be, given that he's a start athlete? How effective will his lawyer be in pleading the deal down to a lesser offense and avoiding jail time? I think that the key determining factor in Rice's NFL career going forward will be whether or not he serves time in jail. If he winds up, say, paying a fine and settling out of court with the victims and doing community service, I think he'll get a 2-6 game suspension, do the usual Mea Culpa token apology tour, and go on with his career. If he serves time in jail, all bets are off.

Incredibly hard for me to see how Beane's personnel decisions are more to blame for the 13 seconds game than McDermott's coaching failures or the players' execution failures. Ditto the Bengals game the following year and the Chiefs playoff game this year. We can all argue 'til we're blue in the face about who deserves what share of blame for which losses, but at the end of the day, two things stick out to me: 1.) The Bills have been very good for four straight seasons. From wins accrued, to division titles, to offensive and defensive rankings, to scoring differential. If there was a waited metric that took all of these into account, it would have only the Chiefs ranked higher. The only thing missing has been a championship which, yes, is obviously the main thing. 2.) Beane DOES get heat! He's getting a ton as we speak! There are TVs always set to ESPN and NFL Network in my workplace lobby, and I haven't been able to walk past a TV the past few days without seeing the Bills get excoriated. All I'm seeing and hearing is "the Bills ask Josh Allen to do too much" and "the Bills' window is closed". I'm just really not sure where people are getting this "Beane doesn't catch any heat" stuff. He absolutely does. The Bills are one of the most criticized times in football the past two years. The "they ask Allen to do too much" narrative, in particular, has been loud and constant, and that's a direct criticism of Brandon Beane's roster construction.

The Bills have won the 2nd most games in the league since 2020. They've won four straight division titles. The only possible reason to say he "deserves" criticism is because they haven't won a title. But if that's the case, then 31 GMs every single year deserve criticism. Looking at moves in a vacuum for any GM across the league, you're going to see some moves that worked and some that didn't. No GM is immune to mistakes. But looking at the total output and production of a team gives you a sense of what kind of job the team's architect has done. The fact remains that only the Chiefs have won more games than the Bills since 2020, that they've won their division four years in a row, and that they are contenders year in and year out. You want perfection? Go watch a Kurosawa film or listen to a Betthoven sonata. Beane is a very good GM. P.S. Brandon Beane DOES receive criticism, and if you don't see it, then you're not looking in the right places. Go turn on ESPN, Fox Sports 1, or listen to any drive time football radio show, and you'll hear scores of criticism of Beane and his Bills. Heck, the buzziest phrase in football the past two season has been "the Bills window is closed". If you're angry at Brandon Beane and want to criticize him, then just say that. Don't manufacture an immunity to criticism that he does not actually possess.

You and I are not on the same page here. Graham and Wawrow are credible people in my book. One can have whatever personal opinions they want about those guys, but I have never been given any reason to doubt their professional credibility. Graham admits that he didn't hear what Diggs actually said to Allen, but I have no reason to believe he would make up Allen's response. I believe him.

Graham claims he didn't report it at the time because he couldn't hear what Diggs actually said, and that for all he knew it could have been a compliment/praise that hit Allen the wrong way (though unlikely). He says he wishes, in retrospect, that he had reported that incident at the time. To be honest, though, what good would it have done the Bills? I'm kind of glad he didn't.

@Herc11 just posted a snippet of this above, but for those that haven't listened, you really should (at least to the part that Herc linked to above). It tells a previously untold anecdote about Diggs coming up to Josh after the week 1 Jets game, when his spirits were really low, and saying something quietly to him (the reporters couldn't hear what) that made Josh flip out on him and shout "IT'S ONLY ONE ***** GAME!". Graham says everyone else was consoling Allen, dapping him up, encouraging him, and along came Diggs, saying something that pissed him right off. Just interesting, and as far as I know, previously unreported up until now.

Nice try, FBI.

I hear you, but also... Jim Harbaugh. Greg Roman. It wouldn't surprise me to see them take a top tackle and get a receiver later. The coach and OC both strike me as old school "trenches before weapons" guys.

Great point. Thanks! Yes, KC had a cast of also-rans at WR the past couple seasons, but they also had a HOF #1 target that always came up big in big moments. Turn on a Chiefs playoff game from the past two years and what do you see? Kelce coming up with clutch plays when it counts. If I ask you to close your eyes and picture which offensive player other than Josh Allen has come up big in big moments in the playoffs the past few years, who comes to mind? For me, it's NO ONE. Maybe Gabe Davis in the Chiefs playoff game, but he's gone now. The Bills need that guy. Kincaid, as you say, may become him. We hope that's the case. But hope is not a strategy. I'd like to try to get another guy that we think has "big in big moments" potential. Let's find that guy for Josh.

Thanks. I appreciate your position. I think it just comes down to risk tolerance. This year, my risk tolerance is high. That's not always the case for me. This year, it is. I've seen the Bills build a roster of good players around Josh Allen, and I've seen the results. I'm ready to take a swing for a GREAT player. And I do understand your argument that no draftees are sure things, and we can potentially get a great player at 28, too. I also feel like a game-changing WR CAN be absolutely crucial to a team's success. I think the market is showing us that, with WRs starting to get $30million+ per year contracts. The market shows us where the league values positions, and right now, NFL GMs value elite receivers. Yes, we can point to the Chiefs winning two Lombardis after trading away Tyreek Hill, but...they have Mahomes and Reid. They're the exception rather than the rule, I think. Anyway, again, I respect where you're coming from and your explanations of why. I just find myself sitting on the opposite end of that ideological spectrum right now.

The other thing I like about Nabers is that I believe the Bills need a guy that commands a lot of attention from defense, in order to open things up for the Shakirs and Kincaids and Cooks of the world. Diggs has been that guy for four seasons. He commands safety help and lightens boxes. We don't know WHAT the Bills offense will look like when defenses don't have a guy like that to account for and can defend them more "honestly". Getting a Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze gives them the alpha that good offenses need in order to dictate to defenses and simplify coverage. Adding a playmaker like that makes all of the other offensive players better, because the defense has to focus attention and resources on the alpha.

You're right, of course. I also think that sometimes rare talents come out in the draft, and everyone can see from a mile away that they're rare talents. To me, that's the case this year with MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze. They're not your Uncle's 1st round receivers. They're DUDES. In order to get guys like that, you have to pick early. Yes, sometimes guys picked later (Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs) turn out to be great, too. But personally, I'd rather trade up for a SPECIAL prospect than hope that I'm lucky enough to get one at 28. That may not be the case every year, but it's the case for me this year, because of where the Bills are in their build and salary cap, and because of how special the top three WRs look to me.

LITERALLY for kicks.

His reasoning was that the pick in the 7th is very late, so rather than use it on a guy who may not make the roster or may get poached off the practice squad, why not use it to replace 30 year old Reid Ferguson and save that (small) amount of salary cap space. He also claims this fellow is the best long snapper in college football. I suppose it's the same rationale as drafting a punter. Maybe you'd rather at least take a player who will make your roster than a player at a more traditional position who likely gets cut or poached. That said...do long snappers EVER get drafted? Aren't they almost always UDFAs?

Seeing so many people drop in to say they're on board with trading up for a WR in this draft does my heart good.

Agreed. The general rule of thumb is that next year's picks lose one round of value. So a 2025 2nd is the same value as a 2024 3rd.

I feel like it heavily depends on which trade chart you use. The Jimmy Johnson chart or the Rich Hill chart. Either way, they're both just guides, and we see NFL GMs buck their wisdom every year. But even if the Bills needed to throw in an extra later round pick, or didn't get the 182 back in the trade, I'd STILL make this move.

Me too. I'd even throw in a handy.

The thing that bothers ME, if anything, is this: When Diggs was a Bill, all we heard about was how he was a diva, a malcontent, a headache, and was maybe showing his age last year and no longer a number one receiver. Now that he's a Texan, he's the weapon that's gonna put them over the top, they're favorites in the AFC, he's still a #1 WR, and the Bills got fleeced. Like...which is it? Pick a lane.

The other reason I like this trade -- aside from Nabers being an absolute dawg -- is that the Bills still have a full slate of picks this year. Look at the draft results above. They still walk out of the draft with 9 players. Then, even in 2025, they lack a 1st, but have two 2nds, one of which could be very early in the round. In the trade outlined in this mock, they'd be getting an elite prospect, still drafting a full draft's worth of players this year, AND still having a full slate worth of picks (albeit with an extra 2nd instead of a 1st) next year. How could anyone not want to do that?