Logic
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Posts posted by Logic
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And the flawed logic with this is that the 2 teams who are #1 & #2 have to be willing to trade and not need said QBs next season. It's funny how that always gets missed and lumped in with their will be better QBs next year crowd...
There were 2 worth risking this year, one went #2 and the other went to KC with our pick to a HC who knows QBs.
Fair enough.
Here's the key, though: The BILLS didn't seem to think that there was a QB worth taking a risk on at 10. Maybe you felt that way, but the Bills clearly didn't, or they would have pulled the trigger.
The most telling indicator regarding their feelings about the QBs in this draft, in my opinion, was that shortly after meeting/working out most of the QBs, they signed TJ Yates. It was as if they looked at what was out there in the draft and said "nah, not this year". So what did they do? Drafted defense and acquired extra capital for next year. Time will tell whether QB is the pick next year or whether they even have a shot at a decent one, but it seems clear to me that they didn't view this year's QBs as franchise material. We'll see whether or not they were right in a few years.
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OP's numbers are not what I've seen elsewhere. I have seen two different sources claim that the Bills come out ahead in the math.
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Man...
EVERY SINGLE YEAR leading up to the draft, ALL I hear from Bills fans is "the Bills should trade down!". This was ESPECIALLY true this year with all of the needs they have and only having six picks. I also always hear how the Bills should pick up a future 1st round pick so that they can have two 1sts to go after a franchise QB.
So wouldn't you know it? The Bills actually trade down this year, add draft capital in THIS draft AND a 1st round pick in a loaded 2018 QB draft year, still get a top cornerback (their biggest need)...and many Bills fans are bitching.
Some things never change.The diluted sample while bad really isnt to much of a concern to me but the dumbass excuse is more of the concern
I don't know. Adding a pothead from Alabama to a roster that ALREADY has a pothead from Alabama seems like a recipe for double suspension disaster to me.
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The stupid part is not taking a stud like Foster at 27. It's not stupid to take a much less expensive replacement for the next 4-5 years vs overpaying Gilmore. I have zero issue with that. I don't see white as a difference maker and could have had a good DB in the 2nd round. Hated seeing a rookie GM like Lynch promptly move up for Foster. That about says it all.
Two things to remember about Foster:
One is the shoulder. After Ragland and Lawson injury situations last year, it's hard to blame the Bills for shying away from a guy who may need surgery and may not be able to start the season.
The other is his alleged character concerns. There's the diluted urine sample as well as the reports that he is surrounded by some bad/unsavory people. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if his character concerns took him off the Bills' board.
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So McDermott, who ran the Panthers defense, got hired as a head coach because of the success of the Panthers OFFENSE?
Yeah. Sure, man. Got it. -
I think he'll re-sign with the Vikings on a low cost, 1 year "prove it" deal when his contract is up. "Unfinished business" and "I wanna stay with my guys" and all that.
Meh. -
Yes, sometimes I DO get draft pick selection leak. It's pretty embarrassing. I usually just run for the nearest latrine.
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Reddick is a hoax. I will be so glad if he's off the board before #10. IA guy switching switching positions, played in a very inferior league but he was an incredible Underwear Olympian. Trade back and getting him would take away some of the pain but at #10.
Thomas Davis switched positions coming into the NFL. He thrived in the McDermott D for years.
If you don't like Reddick, fine. But there's got to be a reason other than "switching positions".
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If the Bills blow up their front office AFTER the draft my faith in this franchise will be at an all time low.
If that's the plan, it should have been done months ago. Not AFTER the draft.
Couldn't disagree more.
Your current scouts have put in months and -- in many cases -- YEARS of work scouting these players. You don't throw all of that out by firing everyone. Not only is it a waste of tons of intel, it also allows those scouts to find work elsewhere and bring the hard work they did on your company dime to another team. Your draft preferences, strategies, etc.
It is far, FAR more logical to fire a front office AFTER a draft than to throw away all of their work and ask a brand new front office to speed-scout an entire draft in 3 months.
To quote Joe Buscaglia: "If you unload the general manager and scouting staff in January, especially after they've just concluded a season's worth of work on all the prospects you're considering for the NFL Draft, your trade secrets are no longer put away with a lock and key. Unfortunately, the more prudent business decision is to let them go just after the draft is over -- especially if there isn't a GM-in-waiting that can keep the whole staff calm in the interim."
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Appreciate the sentiment man.
I think it's a combination of things that makes Davis the pick at 10. I think, from the start, that he's an excellent value at 10 because he carries No.1 WR potential; a complete receiver. He's also a really high character kid.
I do think that it can be argued that LB is a greater need, but unless they've got a serious crush on Foster or Reddick, it would be difficult to advocate for Jarrad Davis at 10.
Agreed.
I also think that there is a bigger drop-off from the tier 1 WRs (Davis, Williams, Ross) to the tier 2 guys (Jones, Kupp, Smith-Schuster) than there is from the tier 1 LBs and CBs to the tier 2 LBs and CBs. Another way of saying that is that I think the depth is greater on the defensive side of the ball in this draft, and thus the Bills can land a quality LB, CB, and S in later rounds.
And last but not least, hopefully the Bills realize that Watkins' injury concerns the past two seasons mean that his health for a full 2017 season is not guaranteed and that, therefore, they should plan accordingly and add a top tier pass catcher. Davis is my top choice. I think he'll make an immediate impact and will blossom into a true #1 receiver. Also, with the large contract that will be necessary to keep Watkins a Bill past 2017, it just makes good sense to have cheap labor across from him for the next five years.
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Thanks for the time and effort, Bandit.
Yours is one of the most well thought out, reasonable, logical mocks I've seen anywhere. Oftentimes, when you see a mock on a given team's forum, it doesn't give much thought to what other teams will do. You seem to have done that, though. For instance: Everyone knows the Giants want to trade up for an offensive tackle, and you have them doing just that. Good stuff.
As for the selection you have Buffalo making...may I ask what leads you to believe that the Bills are more likely to select a WR than a defensive player? I'm just curious what your thought process was there. -
I want no part of Barnett, and it has nothing to do with the fact that DE isn't as big of a "need" for the Bills as other positions.
It has entirely to do with the fact that Barnett as average to below average athletically for the position. He's a Bjoern Werner with better college production. NOTHING about him is special athletically. Winning with your hands is something you can teach to a superior athlete. You cannot, however, teach superior athleticism to someone who can win with his hands.
No to Barnett. -
He just added:
@andy_benoit
Shaq Lawson will have to rely on motor and technique to thrive in NFL. Could he become a nickel DT?
He already knows this after watching the kid play in 11 NFL games?!
I wonder what he would have said about Jerry Hughes after watching him play in HIS first 11 NFL games?
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And the defense:
@andy_benoit
McDermotts scheme requires front 7 talent, not great CB. So Gilmore allowed to leave. (Same as Norman leaving McDermotts Panthers last yr)
#Bills only have one true edge-bender in their pass rush: Jerry Hughes. Thats a problem.
Benoit is right a lot of the time, but he IS leaving out some things in his Tweets today.
He says the Bills need to add two receivers to Sammy Watkins through the draft. While I agree that they need to draft a receiver, I would argue that either Holmes or Brown will be a fine #3. I don't think drafting two receivers (especially when they have only six picks) is wise.
His opinion on Hughes also leaves out the fact -- as others have mentioned -- that the Bills DO have interior pass rushers on the d-line as well as Shaq Lawson at DE, who was a first round pick just last year and had quite the career at Clemson.
All that being said: Do NOT be surprised (especially if the Bills trade down) if a pass rusher is selected on day one or two of this draft. It's a hidden need that a lot of Bills fans aren't thinking about but which McDermott needs to make his defense thrive.
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I'm firmly on the "draft a QB if there's one you like" train.
EVERY SINGLE YEAR your team is going to have positional draft needs. You can fill them all and have a great all around roster, but if you don't have a QB, it won't mean squat. Case in point: the Bills have had NUMEROUS rosters in the past 17 years that -- with a good QB at the helm -- were playoff caliber. Because they have had such AWFUL offenses for so many years, though, said rosters were wasted. How many quality players do we need to see come and go before we realize that it's a QB driven league and, without one, the Bills will always be spinning their wheels?
If there's not a QB they like, then fine, draft positional players and look for a QB next year. If there IS one they like, though, I hope they draft him REGARDLESS of positional needs. -
Here is a TSW reality:
The vast majority of people in this thread that are downplaying the loss of MG......like Promo, for instance........would be vehemently defending the Bills, against any detractors, for signing such a high production young all-around RB for such a small amount and only having to give up a fifth round pick! Fifth round picks fail so much more often than not! It's like giving up nothing!
Y'all know it's true.
And if it were a player from the PATS that the Bills were pinching........good lawd almighty.......Promo would be in seventh heaven.
The Bills paid more to Jordan Poyer for chrissake and the guy has never peed a drop and missed almost all of last season with an injury.
Bottom line.......this is a nice low price for MG.
I disagree.
As I stated in my post, I think it's the other way around. I think if it was Belichick getting a 5th round pick in exchange for a backup running back (that he had signed off the scrap heap for vet minimum to begin with), everyone on here would be calling him a genius. Flipping a running back who's about to turn 28 for a 5th round pick and 1million+ in cap space just doesn't seem like bad business to me. Even if the Bills simply turn around and spend the pick they acquired on a running back, said player will be 6 years younger and a good deal cheaper.
I liked Gillislee a lot, but I think people are somewhat underrating the value of a 5th round pick in a deep draft and somewhat overrating the importance of a backup running back.
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Wow. 69 pages.
I think this is allllll about the fact that it's the Patriots, and that it shook out in terms of an RFA being signed to an offer sheet.
If someone had asked me before the Pats made their offer: "Would you trade Mike Gillislee for a 5th round pick and $1million+ in cap space, would you do it?", I'd have said "yes, in a heartbeat!".
Furthermore, if things were reversed, and it was BELICHICK that signed a scrap heap FA, got two years of good production out of him, then flipped him for a 5th round pick when he was about to turn 28 and likely used the pick to replace him with a younger, much cheaper player, everyone would be gushing about what a genius he is. -
Foster's, Australian for self entitled prick. No thanks.
All the "who he surrounds himself with" stuff combined with the lingering injury have soured me on Foster. Not to mention the fact that a will LB at 10 does not represent good value.
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I am more torn during the lead-up to this draft than I have ever been before.
On the one hand, there are some really talented playmakers that would drastically improve the Bills. Hooker, Adams, Foster, Reddick, M Williams, Davis, Howard...Sitting at 10, the Bills will have a shot at quality player, and they have glaring needs at WR, S, LB, RT, and CB.
On the other hand, they are perfectly situated to draft a franchise QB if they believe one is available in this draft. They are sitting at #10, have a starter in place to be a "bridge", and have a new head coach in place. The contract re-structuring they did with Tyrod screams "not sold on him" as QB of the future. They are in the PERFECT spot to land a QB this draft.
While drafting positional players year after year without having a franchise QB in place has resulted in utter mediocrity and 17 years of no playoffs, the Bills also have lots of needs and only six draft picks with which to attempt to fill them.
I'd hate to reach for a QB and strike out while missing out on some elite level positional talent. I'd also hate to draft a bazillionth cornerback and continue to not have a franchise QB. Everyone always gripes that the Bills don't do enough to address the QB position. Well, they're sitting at 10 and with a new head coach in place. What better time?
Really, really difficult choice this year. Glad I'm not the one who has to make it. -
Just saying so many folks love Rueben Foster... following the combine incident plus reading the type of company he carries plus his BS attitude, I don't want the guy. I think it is simple.
Same reason before ever playing a snap in the league I take A Derek Carr ( 2nd rd pick) over a Cam Newton (1st overall) all day long.
But that's me...
I do agree that the Bills should avoid drafting players with obvious character red flags in this draft. I ESPECIALLY don't like the things I'm reading about the company Foster keeps. It seems like the quickest thing to bring down the career of a talented player is his surrounding himself with a bunch of idiots. If that is in fact the case with Foster, I'm not so sure I'd have any interest in drafting him at all.
Also, the later into the draft it is, the more risk I'm okay with the Bills taking in drafting someone. Karlos Williams in the 5th is a perfect example of the good AND bad side of drafting character risks. His rookie year, he made Whaley look like an absolute genius. Then, in his very first offseason as an NFL player, he wrecked his whole career. Luckily, all that was lost was a 5th round pick. If it's late in the draft, I'm okay with risks and long shots *cough*Chad Kelly in the 7th*cough*.
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I like what you're saying in theory, but it's not always so simple.
The greatest quarterback in Bills history was Jim Kelly. At the time he was drafted, he was an arrogant prick who thought he was too good for Buffalo.
Conversely, EJ Manuel was said to have all the off-field things you could want in a quarterback. Great leader, great studier, hard worker, "presence", commands a room, etc, etc..He led the Bills to exactly zero playoff appearances.
Setting aside the Bills, you have cases like Brett Favre (addicted to painkillers, partier, didn't take game seriously) or Chris Carter (drug addiction, bad attitude, self destructive behavior) who went on to be Hall of Famers and guys who were totally clean off the field (Christian Ponder, Aaron Maybin) who wound up being total busts.
Character is important. So is talent. So are measurables. It's not so simple. -
Today is the first time I've heard this, but:
Apparently, multiple scouts are worried about the people with whom Foster is surrounding himself. That off-the-field tomfoolery, together with his "leaving the combine because doctors made him angry" incident may cause him to drop. -
should have a higher tender on him. if he leaves we need to draft a RB.
Should probably wait until he actually LEAVES to make this assessment. Because if he DOESN'T leave, then it means Whaley played this exactly correctly. Just like he did with Groy.
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It shouldn't take this long...
Are you speaking from a position of expertise in NFL contract negotiations?
How'd we do vs the draft value chart?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Logic
BUF really makes out. 1816 to 1300 JJ's with a 106% discount rate. 12 AV to 6 AV with an inf discount rate on my AV-based model (h/t @pfref)
KC traded 27, 91 and 2018 1st to move up to 10. If you value 2018 1st at 24th ovrl, BUF gets 170 cents on the dollar in my chart, 120 on JJ.
Bills (#27, 91 and 1st rd in 2018) got the better deal in #NFLDraft
trade w Chiefs (#10) by getting 36.1 draft points & losing 19.9.