HappyDays
-
Posts
22,259 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by HappyDays
-
-
Probably in the minority on this but I want nothing to do with him. He's a scumbag player, he went for freaking Dan Carpenter's knees because he's just a douche. I will be happy when he's out of the league.
-
I don't dispute the argument that we might be able to make the playoffs with Taylor. But in my mind that's the absolute height of our aspirations with him.
This argument stemmend from a poster who said the only reason to take Wentz over Taylor was their respective ages, which I completely disagree with. Wentz is the kind of prospect you build a franchise around, and Taylor simply isn't.
EJ Manuel is the "kind of prospect" you build a franchise around. No one thought Russell Wilson was. This is exactly the kind of "keep doing the same thing" attitude that plagues so many GMs today IMO. There is no correct way to win the Super Bowl. Having an elite QB is the fastest way there to be fair, but not the only way.
So I couldn't care less that Wentz "looks" like a franchise QB or has some nebulous set of traits that other franchise QBs have. I care how he produces on the field and last year, after defenses had tape on him, he performed worse than Tyrod did. That's just a fact no matter what statistical analysis you use, he was not as good at playing QB as Tyrod was. And there is no guarantee he ever develops. Some like EJ only get worse. Why would I trade a QB that I KNOW can reach the playoffs with better defense, for a QB that potentially will play like EJ? The Eagles defense with Tyrod is probably a playoff spot.
-
If someone HONESTLY thinks that you could nurse 5.5+ ypc out of any stable of backs on that volume of carries with a better "passing QB" they simply don't understand how hard that is to accomplish.
It is very common for teams with outstanding passers to have mediocre running games.........the pass game does not necessarily facilitate the run......the defensive approach to both in the NFL now is the same......stop the run on the way to the QB.
That's where Tyrod throws a wrench in the works.......teams are much less aggressive wrt wrecklessly shooting gaps and a spy typically plays off the ball.
As for whether the Bills should have had more success throwing the ball..........if they had better options in the passing game Taylor would have had more success.
Tyrod is a cautious passer..........add in the fact that there was a PALPABLY LOW margin for error on this team and what you got was a QB that was ULTRA cautious.....and sure as hell not throwing 50/50 balls to Walter Powell or Brandon Tate.
So in lieu of the kind of performances we saw late in the season versus Miami........we got a QB that was about to lead an offense to an NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season.
Another great post, thank you.
I'm already liking this forum better than BBMB. At least there seems to be more good posters to outweigh the trolls from what I can tell.
-
No, I'm against people using statistics they don't understand and assuming when they say things like 'Oh, but he had a good DVOA!' they understand that the 'contextual details' are often irrelevant or plain wrong in assessing whether or not a play or player or unit did something 'good' or 'bad'. If you need to refer to DVOA or QBR without being able to tell beforehand whether or not a guy's any good, he's not.
Bottom line, if all you've got is an obscure 19th ranking to bolster your argument, good luck. And please continue with how total yards isn't relative to an evaluation of Taylor but offensive points scored somehow is.
Thanks, but I understand DVOA very well. Of course it's not perfect, of course there will be individual instances where the statistical result doesn't match the practical result. Over the course of the season it ends up proving to be very accurate, that's all I'll say on that.
Total yards does not correlate strongly with reaching the playoffs, points scored does. Bad analogy. I also didn't bring up points scored in any case, nor was I trying to argue anything other than I think Tyrod would be a better choice than Wentz in 2017.
-
Actually, it's not that I "tried, but"...I actually did quantify it.
If you don't accept it based upon the sample size, that's fine, but call it like it is: the data reflect that the run game was a half-yard-per-carry better with Taylor in the game than without him in 2015.
You could add in this year's Jets game too, would give you a bit more of a sample size. I know for a fact we ran worse in that game than we did in the earlier Jets game.
-
I've given my opinion on FO's statistics many a time, so suffice to say I know for a fact you can't quote me their formula, and in a game as situationally complex as football metrics that compare against average and 'above replacement' are limited at best.
If McCoy jukes 3 guys in the backfield and hurdle a fourth en route to a 4 yard pickup on 3rd and 2, but it's against a bad defense and in similar circumstances on down and distance the average is 6 yards gained, he gets dinged by DVOA and DYAR, even thought the actual football play and result were net positives and few RBs could have accomplished them. It's not a 'hundred times' better than anything, sorry.
So to be clear - you don't like DVOA/DYAR because they are negatively effected by contextual details that aren't borne out in the stats...
But you think total yards is important? Okay then.
No statistical analysis will be perfect. DVOA is about as good as it gets. If you have a preferred metric and an explanation for why it controls for context better than FO's does, I'd love to hear it.
-
What Tyrod did on the field in 2016?
He handed off well to the best RB in the NFL, something any backup can do. .
If only we had some kind of sample games to look at where the backup played, we could compare that with the offense under Tyrod and see if there was a difference. Say, twice in 2015 and once in 2016. Gee that would really help our analysis.
-
Tougher Pass Defenses? I'd say they were pretty similar, really.
By DVOA, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 18.5. Compared to 16.9 for Wentz.
By Passing Yards, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 12.9. Compared to 18.8 for Wentz.
By Passing TDs, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 16.9. Compared to 15.3 for Wentz.
They also had games against 5 common opponents (BAL, SEA, CIN, PIT, CLE).
Tyrod in those games: 93 Completions, 136 Attempts, 968 Yards, 68.4% Completion, 7.12 YPA, 4 TD, 3 INT, 32 Rushes, 144 Rush Yards, 1 Rush TD. Ratings were 79.9, 90.8, 70.9, 100.1, and 105.2 respectively.
Wentz in those games: 126 Completions, 215 Attempts, 1,275 Yards, 58.6% Completion, 5.9 YPA, 7 TD, 6 INT, 11 Rushes, 32 Rush Yards, 1 Rush TD. Ratings were 52.7, 61.2, 58.2, 125.9, and 101.0 respectively.
In looking at the stats, it shows what we know. Tyrod was more steady and efficient, Wentz had major ups and downs and significantly more attempts. Again, on the year Wentz played in 1 more game than Tyrod, and he threw 171 more passes for 1 less TD, 8 more INTs, and 759 more yards.
For me this year will be very interesting for Wentz. The Eagles went and upgraded his weapons, so it will be fun to see how he adjusts and if he takes the next step.
This is an excellent post, thank you for doing all that work.
-
I meant to come back to this.You realize we played the 2nd easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponent's pass defense, of course.
You also weirdly credit the Eagles defense as a mark against Wentz, while ignoring the Bills' stellar run game that probably had more to do with propping up our QB because, well...it's actually the same side of the ball.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/837691406944698368/photo/1
I'm using this for reference. It paints a pretty bleak picture, but really just confirms what I saw on Sundays last year.
2nd easiest pass defense schedule according to what? Knowing what I know about how most football stats are calculated, I would guess they are using total yards. Which would be entirely wrong and go to prove nothing. Football Outsiders uses DVOA in their strength of schedule ratings which is a hundred times better than total yards, but they unfortunately do not keep track of pass/rush defense strength of schedule. So let me know if I'm mistaken on that but I'm willing to bet the Sharp site is using total yards.
The rest of that do document is classic cherry picking. I took a quick look at some of those stats at the Washington Post advanced NFL stats tool and found what I expected, which is that those stats tell you nothing. For example Brian Hoyer leads the NFL in completion percentage in "close games." Aaron Rodgers is near the bottom. So what does it tell me to know that Tyrod doesn't perform well there, without context? All it shows is that Tyrod is imperfect, which is what we already knew. He has strengths and flaws. He has a career passer rating of 94.2. If he doesn't perform better this year he will likely be sent packing.
DVOA in my opinion is the stat that controls for context more than any other so I usually defer to that. They had him 14th in DYAR/8th in DVOA in 2015, and 19th in both in 2016. And that doesn't account for his rushing either, those are pure passing stats. Meanwhile Wentz was 28th in DYAR/27th in DVOA in 2016. He was mostly abysmal after Week 4, like EJ Manuel bad for real.
Going off just on-field performance so far, Tyrod is clearly the better choice for 2017, although beyond that it is harder to say at this point.
-
Okay I'm done with this argument, it is actually plainly obvious to me without looking at stats that a mobile QB helps the run game. Plainly obvious. I figured I'd back it up with stats too but I see that's not your game so have fun.And the two years before that it was DeMarco Murray and Justin Forsett respectively, I believe. Neither of whom had particularly mobile quarterbacks.
So just to get this straight, your argument in favor of Taylor is now...Mike Gillislee's YPA? How much further are you going to go with this?
-
Well let's see. Gillislee and McCoy were #1 and #3 respectively in rush YPA. Gillislee' 5.71 YPA is the best YPA since... well since anything at least in the last 10 years. Maybe if you go far back enough you'll find a RB that beats it. Funny enough last year's leader was Thomas Rawls whose QB was... Russell Wilson. You may see the beginnings of a pattern starting to emerge.Is this the part where you credit Taylor for the rushing game?
But maybe Gilllislee has just been a hidden rushing prodigy all along, and it's just a coincidence that mobile QBs have had their RBs leading the NFL in YPA the last two seasons.
Now use some common sense - if you're a defensive coordinator and you know Tyrod Taylor can run at any moment, don you have to leave a player on him? A player that would otherwise be on a RB for example?
-
Holmes just announced on Twitter that he is NOT visiting Buffalo today; apparently he was discussing POTENTIAL flight and hotel options with his agent but NOTHING HAS BEEN BOOKED YET. So stay tuned, he may end up finding a lower fare.
Lol brilliant...
-
Would you rather have Taylor or Wentz?
Wentz purely because of age, and he has a higher ceiling. But I think it's a 50/50 shot who performs better this upcoming season. I know most people think that's crazy but based on my watching them play, Wentz could easily turn into a bust. He had 4 great games and then completely fell off, and he never recovered. Eagles had a good defense (4th in DVOA, 12th in PPG) but didn't make the playoffs. We had the opposite problem. And by the way, Football Outsiders' data says our offense faced the 12th hardest schedule, while the Eagles faced the 18th hardest. So why should we assume Wentz will be better moving forward? Like I said, 50/50 shot or so.
-
Your morality is no morality at all.
Again, taxation can be viewed in one of two ways:
1) That it is acceptable to rob a man at the barrel of a gun, and take from him what he has earned.
2) That a man doesn't actually own the fruits of his labor, but rather that the fruits of his labor belong to the state, and that the man is a slave.
Yours is the ugly whip of force. The whip used on plantations of the South.
An argument which resorts to force is a morally bankrupt one, as it seeks compulsion over conversion. Theft over charity.
No one is entitled to anything other than what they themselves earn, and no one can give away what they themselves do not own.
I encourage you to give until it hurts, and I encourage you to ask others to give until it hurts; but robbery is not giving. Until you embrace this, you're advocating evil.
Taxation is as old as civilization, it is literally the only way we know to fund modern society and all its conveniences. This is the cost of living in society. Don't like it, go live in the woods somewhere the rest of your life, no one will come looking if you run away far enough. It would be far more evil to eliminate taxes because millions of people would suffer and society as we know it would crumble. You're not "robbing at gunpoint," you're making a trade. "We will provide you with all the benefits that belonging to society entails, and you have to pay your fair share." Robbery would be taking money and giving nothing back. Well every person (especially the rich) in America has been taking from society since they were born. So they have to pay it back. That's as fair as we can get in this inherently unfair world.
-
Cam Newton won the MVP with Ted Ginn as his #1.
Matt Ryan was still pretty good when Julio Jones went down.
Can Newton is a bizarre case, he actually got worse when Kelvin Benjamin came back. I don't know, weird stuff happens. Matt Schaub was a top 10 QB for a while. But this is why I want to see how far QBs regress on average with their top receivers out. I would keep it to same-season to make sure it wasn't a weird case like that.
-
transplantbillsfan, welcome to TBD. It took me a while to get through and digest your post, but now that I have, let me say "nicely done." I hope there's some room here for more analytical posts ...
At the other board there were like 4 posters who made it a point to come into every Tyrod thread and talk bad about him, literally all of their posts were about how Tyrod sucks. Seems like there's only 2 of those posters here. So an upgrade by my count.
-
Common theme among the Tyrod detractors is to bring up Wentz. Which lead me to believe you didn't pay attention to the Eagles last year. Those first four weeks though.You just listed Carson Wentz who the Eagles gave up a boatload of picks for. if you really would rather have Tyrod over Wentz after last year you are just a TT fanboy.
Indeed, as much as receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith decided to sign with the Eagles for the strength of the organization and a decent contract, they mostly signed because of Wentz. They mostly chose Philadelphia because of what that have seen of the Eagles quarterback as a rookie, and the respect Wentz has already gained around the NFL.
On Monday Smith said that he was excited to play with the Eagles in large part because of what he saw from Wentz in terms of the leadership Wentz showed as a rookie. Smith said he watched how the Eagles responded to Wentz, and he knew that was no small achievement for any rookie, let alone a rookie quarterback from a small school.'
http://www.phillyvoice.com/carson-wentz-makes-eagles-long-last-desirable-destination-again/
Meanwhile TT can't even draw Andre Holmes.
-
Does this board have an ignore feature I'm not seeing? It's not too hard to tell who the trolls are around here, and the one in this thread has finally tested my patience enough.
Thanks for compiling all the research transplant. It's good to know you didn't lose everything in the BBMB purge. One bit of research I keep thinking of doing, but never find time to do, is an analysis on how QBs perform without their top receiver(s). There seemingly aren't any articles out there that have tried to find out what the effect is, and I'm curious to know how Tyrod's regression after losing Watkins might compare to other QBs.
-
I've noticed that Tyrod taps the X button instead of holding it down, causing a lot of his passes to float incomplete. If he held the x down he would have a tighter, more efficient spiral. Those are just facts, and I think the Bills brass knows that and told him to do that very thing.
Lol, and EJ has the L1 button permanently taped down
-
The Bills make me want to SHOUT
-
Okay I like this signing after reading the thread. Could be an underrated pickup. I am still worried about our #1 though, please don't let Sammy get injured.
-
He could be talking about the draft as well. He just said bring some guys in. They could have told him their draft plans for all we know.
Well a supposed insider that was at BBMB and is here now (username here is Bills Media) claims the front office doesn't see receiver as a big need, and they plan on drafting a secondary player in the 1st round. This guy was also right about Tyrod restructuring a week before it happened so he has some credibility. But who knows, I'm hoping we draft our #2 but after the top 2-3 guys there's a big fall off.
-
Did Tyrod specifically state better receivers?
Also you got to take into consideration, if you're a free agent WR, wouldn't Buffalo be towards the bottom of your list for destinations?
Since you and someone else asked, this is what I'm referring to:
In taking the new deal, Taylor lowered his 2017 salary-cap number from $15.9 million to $9.7 million, which the quarterback hoped would give the Bills financial wiggle room to build a better team around him.
"Hopefully we can bring in some guys [at receiver]," Taylor told the Bills-produced radio show last Thursday. "We definitely have some guys on the roster, as well, too. But the more talent the better. I put my faith and my trust in the coaches and the management, that they'll bring in some guys that can create some plays for us."
Honestly I don't know why "at receiver" is in the brackets like that, there must be some context from before that line which made it clear Tyrod was talking about receivers. It might be clearer in the actual John Murphy interview.
And maybe other receivers don't want to come here too badly, but I haven't even heard that we were in the mix for anyone. Jeffrey, Marshall, Torrey Smith - no talk about the Bills going after these guys. For comparison we know the Bills went after OT Andre Smith but he made a different decision. Haven't heard anything like that about FA receivers, except I guess Kamar Aiken.
-
I don't understand what the plan at receiver is. Tyrod said part of the reason he took a pay cut was to get better receivers on the team. But as of right now we have worse, yes WORSE, receivers than last year. Is the plan to evaluate Tyrod for a year or not? Sounds like they're just saying F it, we'll run our backs into the ground and pray Sammy stays healthy.
This has been a bad weak spot for Whaley, along with RT.
With Dimarco/Tolbert anyone else forsee Wishbone offense
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
There is only one way to win in football - pick up yards and score points. Anyone saying this is a dumb idea doesn't know football. It's only dumb if it doesn't pick up yards and points. Last year we had the 3rd most offensive TDs scored on the back of a string running game. We would be wise to do the same this year and I agree with OP that the running game could be even better this year. Play to our strengths.