HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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2 hours ago, Doc said:
That number for the Bills is complete crap.
Does anyone here actually believe we had just 1 drop per game? Does that match up with anyone's memory of the games last year?
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1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:
I tend to think Zay will see the field more than Foster
This is a pretty bold prediction but we'll see. I'm hoping Foster takes the next step because he's the only receiver on the roster that has flashed #1 ability.
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17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Which receiver do you think he'll take snaps from? Foster, Brown, or Beasley? He will have to beat one of those receivers outright to get more than 50% of the snaps.
Yeah looking at the numbers from last year I don't see how you can defend this. Last year after Benjamin and Holmes were cut, only Foster and Jones were given more than 50% of the snaps in the remaining games. So in our offense only the top 2 receivers are going to get more than 50% of the snaps. I guess the only wildcard right now is Foster but I think everyone agrees he contributes more to the offense than Zay Jones. John Brown is a proven NFL receiver and we're paying him $9 million a year. So I see him and Foster as the top 2, and Beasley is obviously the starting slot receiver. Barring an injury I don't see how Zay gets on the field that much. I think he'll be part of the rotation but he has a long way to go to be one of our regular starters.
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5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:
Zay will be on the team. He will get more than 50% of snaps
Which receiver do you think he'll take snaps from? Foster, Brown, or Beasley? He will have to beat one of those receivers outright to get more than 50% of the snaps.
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5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:
There are few fan bases that would embrace the slow build in an era designed for fast turnarounds.
This was not just a roster turnaround. It was an entire organizational turnaround from top to bottom. 5 years ago the Bills were a laughingstock. Players didn't want to get drafted here and we stayed well below the salary cap at all times. Our scouting department was cheap. McDermott and Beane inherited a total mess and turned it into a real NFL organization. Credit to Pegula as well for spending money on the right things and changing the way the team is seen by players around the league.
All that being said this is the money year. Anything less than 9 wins will be a disappointment.
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8 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:
Singletary and Knox will prove to be the steals of the draft in two years.
I've become really fascinated with Knox since the draft. He might be my 2nd favorite pick right now next to Oliver. Having a TE that can do this...
...with Allen throwing down the seam could be a monster. That is arguably Allen's best throw and I think Knox will become a favorite target of his very quickly.
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4 hours ago, SoTier said:
I see a lot of posters on TSW snickering at predictions that the Browns may make the playoffs this season
You do? Are you sure you didn't just imagine it?
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Interesting that right after picking Singletary they were already trying to figure out how to pick Knox. Didn't seem like a panic move from other teams picking TEs, he was their target all along.
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Greg Gabriel has a consistent issue with players that show any kind of attitude at all. Any player that goes beyond saying "yes sir" is a likely bust in his eyes. Very old school mentality. He can talk about Oliver's tape all he wants. As soon as Oliver got in an argument with his coach he became a bust.
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2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:
Its amazing that after that draft, where we didn't draft a single WR, more people who have agreed with that OP haven't walked away realizing they just have no idea what they are talking about. I understand saying he has too many drops (he actually only had 3 last year), because that was a problem for him his rookie year, but to say he doesn't get separation is just wrong. It is like saying vaccines are bad for children. Sure, you are entitled to your opinion, but it's wrong. Like, as a point of fact, it is just wrong.
I can think of 4 drops off the top of my head. I don't trust any drop stats. I don't remember what game it was but there was some game with Tyrod at QB where the official stat had it at 2 drops and I could distinctly point 4 drops in that game. I don't know what the official drop stat counts, but it's wrong.
Zay runs decent routes. He can get open in the short and intermediate routes on probably an average percentage of plays. He isn't complete trash. But he doesn't separate enough to be a full time starting receiver, and when he doesn't separate he literally has a 0% catch rate in contested situations. I'm not pulling that stat from anywhere, but I cant remember a single contested catch. The defender always wins.
I'm genuinely curious what do you think he adds to the offense? Brown and Foster add speed. Beasley adds short area quickness and separation. Duke Williams or Sills, it remains to be seen but they may add contested catch ability. What does Zay add? What does he do at an above average level? If he offers nothing but average to below average skill sets, why would you pencil him in as a starter?
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2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:
He had the most catches of any Bills WR since 2016, but sure since the Bills are so loaded with WR talent they should move on.
This is mistaking stats for talent. In 2014 Andre Holmes had 50 receptions and 700 yards. At the end of the day he is still Andre Holmes.
I think we don't give Josh Allen enough credit for what he did last year with that group of receivers. It is incredible that Zay had as many catches as he did considering he has average speed, below average separation, and well below average catch ability. I mean what is his signature play? What is his signature skill? He's just a guy.
There is a reason we signed John Brown and Cole Beasley to multi-year deals. Zay will get on the field as a relief guy, or in case of injury, but I don't see how he breaks the starting lineup as it stands right now. I'll be surprised if he's outright cut. But it's possible.
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2 hours ago, Seasons1992 said:
I believe that when I die, this picture will be the last thing that flashes through my mind.
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12 minutes ago, SCBills said:
Bills fans seem to be the most critical of the pick.
Lots of analysts and “online scouts” think he’s a stud.
I think if we hadn't signed Yeldon people would like the pick more. Before Yeldon we had two old running backs and I thought it was a big need that we would address in the middle rounds. When we signed Yeldon I thought they were going to leave the position alone, so I was surprised when we took Singletary. But we didn't have any kind of long term plan there so I understand it.
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Foster showed potential to be a #1 WR. Other than Allen he is the biggest wildcard this year. I don't want to compare him to Tyreek Hill but that style has proven to be capable of producing like a #1. If he gets more consistent catching the ball WR won't even be a need next year.
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The fact that they haven't made a decision yet tells me they are still exploring a trade. They know what Shaq Lawson can do, it's not like they need to watch the tape again. If a trade happens they won't pick up his option, if it doesn't they will.
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16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
There's an interesting question about what Allen would fetch in a trade right now. Cardinals barely found one team to give them a 2nd for Rosen. I'm pretty sure that right now Allen would go for a 1st if he was up for trade. The difference is Allen showed the ability to elevate his offense.
Would he? I am not certain. I think the perception out there on him is still pretty low. Witness the reactions on the faces of the other NFLN guys when Peter Schraeger said "People in Western New York love #17 they think they have their Quarterback."
Peter Schrager and the NFLN talking heads are not representative of the NFL. Many people in that sphere thought that Allen was distantly 4th in that year's QB class, and some even thought Lamar Jackson was a better prospect. The NFL obviously felt differently. Allen's physical talent and the improvement he showed would make him a clear 1st round pick right now IMO.
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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
But I disagree greatly that AZ would have done the same thing to Allen. Their stat totals ended similar, but it was Allen that really showed significant improvements and it was Allen who the Cardinals coveted last year and were devastated reportedly when we took him.
There's an interesting question about what Allen would fetch in a trade right now. Cardinals barely found one team to give them a 2nd for Rosen. I'm pretty sure that right now Allen would go for a 1st if he was up for trade. The difference is Allen showed the ability to elevate his offense.
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I'm keeping an eye on Clowney. Even if we don't trade for him this year he is a free agent next year. I was surprised we didn't go after an edge rusher early in this year's draft, and I wonder if we already have a plan in place. Maybe they feel good about Ansah.
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1 hour ago, kirkwoodus13 said:
If a white QB had Dwayne Haskens numbers the number one pick would not be a question.
This is an especially weird year to make this point. You did watch the beginning of the draft, yes?
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14 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
No, it was a question stating why 2 guys with very similar measurables and college careers
Yes and it's a bad question. Scouts don't care about the career they had in college. Most Heisman trophy winners go on to do nothing. This whole thread is a really poor use of statistics.
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22 hours ago, Mango said:
He was credited with 4 drops on 10 targets last season...
I can't find this recorded anywhere. Where did you get this from?
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8 minutes ago, mannc said:
Then why don’t these differences show up in the stats?
Because that isn't what scouting is. I really don't get it. I'm a big stats nerd. I love analyzing data. But I would never think a college player's stat sheet has anything to do with their NFL prospects. At the NFL level you can glean a lot from stats, but in college some schools are practically playing different sports. Tyree was playing in a college offense. He didn't have to hit tight windows. He was chucking the ball 30 yards downfield to wide open receivers and he did it moderately well. He hasn't shown any NFL traits at all.
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1 hour ago, The Bills Blog said:
Jackson just looks out of control on tape. He looks terrible.
This is it. Allen showed spotty accuracy and sometimes left the design of the play early. Jackson had those problems all the time. He is not inconsistent, he is consistently inaccurate and bad. The only reason he got any attention in Buffalo is that he played college here. I'll say as someone that did not want Allen last year I thought he would have been a good pick in the 2nd, and this year I thought Tyree would be a good pick in the 7th.
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9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
Yea, numbers are for nerds. Facts just get in the way of the tried and true ol' eyeball test.
Wasn't there a QB who threw 5 INTs in a single game who you continually propped up as a starter? So I guess your eyeball test is okay.
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2019 Bills Passing Game - What do you expect?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by HappyDays
No, it was just as good as I think. PPG is one metric but it at least partially relies on the offense's performance as well. The Bills offense was abysmal last year which put the defense in terrible spots. But they ended 2nd in DVOA and 3rd in yards per play. Personally I'll take DVOA's ranking over any of them because it accounts for the circumstances of the play. Allowing a TD after the offense goes 3-and-out on 3 consecutive drives is not the same as allowing a TD on the opening drive of the game.
If the defense performs exactly as it did last year (hopefully excluding the first two weeks - yes I know that is easier in writing than in practice), and the offense makes it to middle of the pack, 10 wins is a more than realistic prediction. Our win ceiling this year is going to be based on how much the offense improves. Any improvements made by the defense will just be gravy.
If you click the link that you quoted, you'll see that both of these statements are false. The rush defense was "slightly above average," but the pass defense was 2nd in the league, which meant the defense on the whole was 2nd in the league.
The biggest thing our defense needs to improve is its consistency. Again going off of DVOA, we had the highest week to week variance in the league. If our highs stay the same and the lows become less common, it's very possible we have the best defense in the league next year. A lot of it will depend on Edmunds progressing.