HappyDays

It isn't just his mocks. His hot press rumors consistently come true. Off the top of my head one example I can think of is Jermaine Johnson. He was commonly mocked in the top 10 by most people, at worst top 15. The day before or of the draft Charlie Campbell reported Johnson was likely to slide to the bottom of the 1st round because of major character concerns. Nobody else was reporting this. Lo and behold he slid to #26.

Charlie Campbell has been reporting for a while now that the Jets pick is down to Bowers or Odunze. I really don't understand the amount of pushback I get on his reports. Is it just because Walter Football as a website kind of sucks? Because I get that, but his track record is his track record.

https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-nfl-draft-week-rumors-thursday.php

I would love to mimic what those teams have done but that is going to come from a coaching change, not from intentionally diluting our talent. I know you like McDermott more than I do but even you have to admit we have seen enough of his career to know that he isn't an elite coach. I don't trust him to ever put on a defensive coaching masterclass like Steve Spagnuolo just did in the AFCCG and Super Bowl. Our offense is never going to be as creative and meticulously designed as Kyle Shanahan's under McDermott's leadership. Those are pie in the sky outcomes at this point. The only way we are going to beat teams with that caliber of coaching is by simply overwhelming them with top tier talent. Beane has described Curtis Samuel as a "weapon" not as a WR. He is the plus-plus version of what we tried to get for cheap with McKenzie and Harty. I don't think his signing tells me anything about what the Bills want to do. They have wanted that gadget player since Daboll was here, and Beane finally just threw his hands up and paid a mid-sized contract to get a good one once and for all. I don't agree we need to spend an enormous amount of draft capital. Keeping to the topic of this thread, I am not one who is banging the drum to trade way way up the board for Harrison or Nabers. If Odunze makes it to 9 that's where my appetite for trading up begins, and even then I would not want to give up this year's 2nd. My preferred strategy is trade down, draft a WR with our first pick, then trade up in the 2nd round to draft another WR. I would double dip from this incredibly deep pool of top 50 caliber WR prospects and bet on one becoming a superstar and the other becoming pretty good, and still have plenty of picks this year and next to continue building the rest of the roster. But I would rather trade way up than say take an EDGE in the 1st and get whatever slim pickings is left at WR at #60. We HAVE to maximize our chances of getting a top tier WR out of this draft. Trade way up or double dip, that's the move. And I don't agree that top-tier talent can't overcome less-than-elite coaching. As recent examples I would point to the 2017 Eagles, the 2020 Bucs, the 2021 Bengals, and the 2022 Eagles. It's certainly much harder, and that will be our handicap until Pegula makes the tough decision to move on, but it's doable.

At the end there you named the 4 best offensive coaches in the NFL. Another team I would point to with your philosophy is the Packers. Not so coincidentally that would round out the top 5 offensive coaches in the NFL. We aren't at that caliber of offensive coaching, not even close IMO. I like Brady overall but let's be realistic. With a coach of his caliber you need top tier offensive talent to have a top tier offense. And in general we should really stop using the Chiefs as any kind of measuring stick. They got shutout in the 2nd half of the AFCCG and the 1st half of the Super Bowl. Think about that - they got shut out in consecutive halfs in their final two games and they won the freaking Super Bowl doing it. They did this a few years after drafting a RB in the 1st round, a couple years after trading away the best WR in the NFL, in a season where they had a below average LT. No team should be trying to replicate their strategy. Their coaching staff is in another stratosphere compared to everybody else which means they can get away with things that no other franchise can. We don't need to be like any other team. We need to be the best possible version of the Bills, and the best possible version of the Bills absolutely has a top tier pass catcher to make up for its lack of top tier coaching.

You hate to see it.

The thought process behind @Kirby Jackson's idea is that in the divisional round, the cheap CB and DT will probably give us as much production as the expensive CB and DT that we've already paid. Whereas the top WR will vastly out perform Trent Sherfield (and probably Diggs too for that matter). I don't know if I'm alone on this but I'm evaluating every possible draft option under the assumption that the defense will underperform in the playoffs pretty much no matter what. That's what history tells us will happen. So just about anything that moves resources from the defense to the offense, I am going to support.

It's getting to a point where teams should draft nothing but QB, EDGE, WR, or LT in the 1st round. Maybe a 3T if they're really sticking out. The value difference between those positions and the rest is just too high to justify anything else.

In Australia the draft already aired, but the whole country has been sworn to secrecy.

Couple other interesting nuggets from that article:

A lot of great nuggets in here (for ESPN+ subscribers) including this on the Bills:

Getting in front of Miami is too rich for my blood. If they take Worthy I think it's a colossal mistake on their part and I would be inclined to just let them make that mistake and accept a different player for the Bills. I think if anything you have to get in front of Dallas at #24 and steal their player for a second year in a row. Currently Minnesota has the #23 pick. Good chance they trade it away in a big move up though. To get from #28 to #23, one move that lines up with the draft value chart would be giving up our 2025 2nd from the Diggs trade and getting back a 2024 4th to balance the scales. In that scenario we would still have plenty of day three ammo to move up in the 2nd round if we wanted and probably enough to get into the bottom of the 3rd round too. Come away with something like: -Worthy at #23 -Legette/Coleman/Polk at #53(ish) -Pick #100(ish) -5 day three picks

If we do this, I hope we trade up again in the 2nd for Coleman or Legette or Polk. Pair the speedy small WR with the big bodied contested catch specialist. I don't care if it means we have barely any picks on day three and have to give up one of our 2nds next year. Get two physical studs that win in different ways and put them on the field with Josh Allen for the next 5+ years, and the rest will figure itself out.

I still am not 100% sure if ECB always gets real info or not, but I have seen enough from him to give some credence to his info. If this report is true, it is very interesting. The day before the 2022 draft it was reported by someone who worked for I think The Draft Network that we had brought Elam in on a top 30 visit earlier that week. This was not a widely publicized visit, it was kept under wraps except for that one writer that got the scoop. Last year after the draft Beane revealed that they had met virtually with Kincaid a couple times earlier in the week because they had zeroed in on him as a possible target. This was never reported by anybody. So this tweet from ECB is the kind of report I have been looking out for - a last minute report with information that isn't widely publicized that says we are doing work on a prospect the week of the draft. There might be something to this. In the 1st round Beane loves prospects with elite physical traits that interview well and have a good personality. Worthy fits the profile.

Yeah Joe has been banging the drum for taking a non-WR. He has called Chop Robinson, Cooper Dejean, and Johnny Newton "sprint to the podium" picks. He makes a common draftnik mistake of looking at the draft in a vacuum where the goal is to make the best singular pick irrespective of any context. Of course in reality the draft is entirely context-driven. Certain positions inherently have more value. Certain teams have not invested in certain positions to the degree that they should. A lot of draftniks, Joe included, have made this realization in regard to RBs, but have yet to make the leap from that to a wider philosophy that extends to every position in some fashion. From a bird's eye view taking a CB/safety hybrid in the 1st round would of course be a terrible decision for the Bills, but he is looking at it from just the standpoint of his own personal draft grades. It's the definition of missing the forest for the trees.

Yeah he has been too high on a few QBs, but he hasn't been too low on any that I can remember. Even from that same draft he said that he liked Trevor Lawrence, just didn't see him as a generational prospect like most people thought, and I would say that assessment of Lawrence turned out correct.

Chris Simms is lower on Drake Maye than just about anyone, has him as his 6th ranked QB behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy (in that order). The concern he's noted is that he thinks Maye is more of a project than the others and will need to rework a lot of his mechanics before seeing the field. He says Maye loses control of too many throws for seemingly no good reason. Curious if you saw any of this in your evaluation.

I've considered this as well. Last year I liked Jalin Hyatt as a potential 1st round pick for us and instead he went in the 3rd. WRs with that sort of frame tend to fall further than draftniks predict.

With the 12th pick the Chicago Bears select Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA. Las Vegas @NewEra is on the clock. It was down to Latu or Murphy for us at #9, so we are elated to come away with a 3rd and a 4th round pick, and still get one of our top choices. Latu fits a clear need. Trading for Montez Sweat has turned out great but we have no one to write home about on the other side. The only concern with Latu is medicals but recent reports are that he has been cleared, so we are more than comfortable taking him here. Latu has an extremely advanced repertoire of pass rush moves. He has a TJ Watt ceiling and is ready to start from day one. Our defense suddenly looks scary and we are ready to compete for the NFC North title.

The Bears would still like to trade down again but I'll make my pick in 30 minutes if no offers come through.