Franco_92

It would be inexcusable to miss no matter the formation - when you choose a formation objectively better for the situation, and miss, it isn't the formation's fault. That is the logical error everyone and their mother is making The six inches is HARDER TO GET in the formation everyone WANTED TO SWITCH TO

The white socks make it a lot easier to look at IMO

Hoping this game unlocks confidence both in himself and from Josh Allen

Fair. It's bedtime after all

@Simon when I get on the "offensive" side it's because of stuff like this. Is there a football team that hasn't tried a hard count this year? Why are 50% of the posts produced by the Bills fanbase on the internet something like this?

Okay but even the best teams don't score 100% of the time from first and goal. Our red zone stats were #2 in the league this year before tonight, and we have scored more frequently from shotgun (where the data shows it is better to play from) than from under-center, where our QB explicitly dislikes playing from. I like sneaking Allen too, and so I am not happy with that sequence, but it's entirely possible they wanted to avoid that because he is known to have a shoulder issue right now. And again, shotgun solves the number one issue that makes it hard to score in the red zone, it spreads people back out. Teams will never stop doing it because decades of data shows it works. All formations fail, and one particular failure doesn't shift the weight of thousands of plays in the past. It is just an instinctive emotional reaction to the instance not working out

Damn, i guess even biased homers like me should just toss in the towel and free up our sundays!

All good brother. just shooting the ***** with my internet frands

They do this because it's a good thing to do on the goal line. Especially if you are reluctant to sneak a QB that just had to go into the tent again with a shoulder injury. if you aren't sneaking, handing off from under center is the LEAST SUCCESSFUL play you can call at the goal line, and this is bolstered by a decade of data tracking every play run at the 1 yard line. It is doubly true when you only have 2/5 OL known for moving bodies.

I"m talking about "From Sean", which is what every thread on this board has or will devolve into for the rest of time apparently. I'm not trying to be tough, I'm trying to emphasize that I'm not ass-kissing, just trying to ground people in some semblance of a reality of what NFL games are actually like between two teams trying to win

I am not pretending that the Bills win was perfect, it was far from it. Read the bold. But if you want me to read your post, I'll comment on your examples. 1. Gabe Davis fumbles against NYG 2 weeks ago, because he failed to shift the ball from his inside hand to outside hand. He did the same thing today, in the second quarter. This is basic, fundamental football. I honestly don't remember Gabe fumbling in this one, but I was helping my wife with a project for part of it. Gabe is a flawed player I hope we move on from. If this happened it is unfortunate. It is not unique to the Bills. 2. Taron Johnson: how many weeks in a row has he committed a crucial penalty on 3rd or 4th down? Taron Johnson has had a rough 2 weeks. He is a great slot corner. I think his job is a lot harder with shaky corner and OLB play around him. The dude basically plays two positions at once. But yes, penalties can't happen. This is again far from unique to the Bills. 3. How many times does McDermott need to see Taron Johnson get beat on the same play in the end zone? -and goal plays are successful in the NFL. We were beat on this one but historically have been very good on average in these situations. Taron's coverage on this touchdown was fine, and Baker put that ball in the only place it could be completed. It sucks, but this is not something unique to the Bills. 4. Dorsey, and his affinity for the shotgun on 3rd and short plays, deep in enemy territory. Second time in 3 weeks. Again, shotgun formations work better in goal to go situations at the 1, data has proven this, google "the athletic shotgun goal line plays" for an article written last year that has the data. Allen is a shotgun quarterback. He prefers it, and will always take most of his snaps from the shotgun. Dorsey needs to, and does, keep him honest and get him under center sometimes. He threw a pick from under center in both of the last two weeks. I am materially unconcerned with this distinction , it is one of a million things bills mafia latches onto and pretends is a magic "fix everything" button. 5. The horrible job on the Hail Mary - again. Got burned on Hail Murray, and almost inexplicably, the very next week (maybe the Chargers?) The hail mary coverage was bad, but whatever it did, not one Tampa player was within 5 yards of, or even looking at, the football. 6. Dumb penalties, poor tackling and lack of discipline. The Bills have been a historically poor tackling team under Sean, and of course I"d like that to get better, I'll give that to you. Part of this is that they prioritize slight, athletic players to shut down the passing attack, which is how teams win today. No team has allowed fewer passing yards or a lower QBR since 2017 than the Buffalo Bills. No team. No team has a better point differential than the Bills in the last 3.5 years. Only one team has more wins. This is a solid football operation, much better than the vast majority, and discussion of the things they need to do better is always necessary and is in fact the most interesting part of talking ball, but fans who pretend that the bills are the worst winners in the history of the world need to be stamped out, they are the worst.

I could make an identical list from any good team's one-score win this year. Easily. Trivially. Twice as long. The context isn't that the Bills were perfect, it's that this is NFL football, and there are very few NFL football games that don't look like this. And the Bills are historically overrepresented in the games that are as flawless as we demand - massive blowout victories. No team in history, or very few, have done that with the frequency of the Bills of these last 4 years. 39% of their games in this struggle-session of a season have been exactly that!

This board is amazing, but like all other places, the game ends and a flood of new names you don't remember from all week tells you why your win sucks in a unique way that other good teams are capable of avoiding when they win their many close games. To a degree that makes you think we lost if you take in the overall volume. I think this string of success has made us a worse and dumber fanbase collectively. Right, it's every week. I'm not in here saying the Bills are the best team ever, they need to seal the deal soon here or I'll be ready to move on too. But people just don't know what they're looking at, yet will talk to you like you're a dumb toddler for not being as angry as they are, and when they articulate, they expose how little ball they actually know.

I am as surprised that a 14 point late 4th quarter lead turned into a 6 point 4th quarter lead against a decent but not great team tonight, as I was when Denver had the ball down one score late in the 4th quarter against KC two weeks ago, yes. Or that Houston took them to OT last year. Because I watch NFL football. This was an NFL football game, that the Bills won. Like all NFL teams in all NFL games, they have a lot they can work on, but unlike some teams, they won the game, and unlike most teams in the entire history of the league, the Bills get an obscene number of blowout wins that fans have decided are the only acceptable way to experience an NFL game. Hand it over, I'm having a blast! Unless that means you're gonna warn me. Please don't I will behave I"m sorry!!

Yep. I've had my hope tank rejuvenated tonight, even if things weren't perfect. I see a football team that will stick around and will be a dreaded opponent come January.

The Bills got a lot of bounces weeks 2-4, but they've evened up the ledger the last month or so, they have gone bone-dry in luck. They have been inches from strip sacks, tipped ball picks, Poyer's almost pick earlier today, and every single wacky bounce has gone to their opponent on either side of the ball. Their opponents have muffed punts and recovered them, caught our tips, everything. That will re-correct soon. We went 2-2 in this stretch of bounces, because our opponents need them to have a chance. When we start getting some again, it will make things a lot easier.

What's relieving is you see what it can be with tweaks. That had gone away for a little while, but it's in there. Gotta get it tuned properly for this big stretch of games.

Yup. when you get to needing 2 yards or more, it is way too easy for a defender to get a hand up, or to blow a gap, to be worth giving them 30 seconds to go 45 yards or whatever it was. Perfect offensive execution on a 4th and 2 can still fairly often lead to turnover on downs. Torrence not locking down Payne's hands did exactly that against Washington this year. Also, Neal made a really bad play on that ball, it should have been downed at the 1.

It is absolutely insane that Bills fans think there is something uniquely horrifying about the way their team wins games. It makes every place you can go to read about the Bills on the internet completely insufferable. Tonight is a game that looked EXACTLY like the VAST MAJORITY of games (especially Thursday games) between a good team and a decent team. This was an ARCHETYPE of an NFL football game. And your team won! ***** enjoy it! Holy *****!

If you assume otherwise, it hurts less when it works out as expected, and is a nice treat if these things ever do actually happen

I like pushing Allen too, but I'm not surprised if they're avoiding that when possible because he had to go back to the tent for his shoulder today. The point is, fans shriek when things don't work, even when they don't work but are in line with traditional rates and outcomes on the play. There is nothing inherently wrong with being in shotgun at the goal line, nothing. Teams score more when they are. That data has held true, decisively so, for decades. It spreads things out in the part of the field where the biggest asset defenders have is the compression it provides. Bills fans are insufferable, miserable losers even when their team wins, and the worst part is they don't actually know what they're talking about when they do it.

I was SCREAMING at Diggs to go down lmao. He was churning with one arm on the ball and Tampa was swinging. I have accepted the fact that there won't be an AFCCG played outside of Arrowhead for a looooong, long time.

We have scored more TDs handing off from shotgun at the 1 than under center at the 1 this year, and historical data shows that the shotgun runs are more successful. an under center run is actually the least successful run you can do at the 1 or closer, behind: 1.) QB draw from gun 2.) QB sneak 3.) shotgun handoff 4.) handoff from under center

Everyone telling us before the game that we were going to lose is now telling us how awfully we won the game. Lol This was like the Chiefs' Thursday game against the Broncos only our offense was better than theirs was. Jordan Phillips can get off my team, I"d love to add a DT at the deadline. He had the sack, and then deliberately reached out around the helmet to feel for the facemask, then latched on, all while Baker had no chance of escape. What the actual F*CK was that. This game is 24-10 and over at that point if he doesn't do that. Before this game, I had a quiet fear that this season was a complete goner because I was worried our defense was going to be stuck as a bottom 3 unit the rest of the way. But Tampa has some names in the passing game, even if their offense isn't very good, and the defense that showed up today was plenty as good as the 2020 baseline - and that was the year we got further than any other. If we can maintain that level, and get a timely stop or two, it can give us a shot. The reason it can give us a shot is the glimpses we saw on the other side of the ball. And maybe if we get a couple guys back, or make a couple additions, it can be better. There are still ballers on that side of the ball, and they have been incredibly unlucky with bounces the last few weeks compared to their opponents (eventually, the tips that keep going to the other team are going to start coming to us). Each touchdown drive was stopped short in a parallel universe by Poyer being just a tick to his left, or by Phillips not grabbing that facemask. Little tweaks and a few bounces. If we get the wins now, I can save the bounces for later. The reason a decent defensive performance, as opposed to a very good or great one, can give us a shot is because of the flashes we saw on the offensive side of the ball. They were not perfect - they could have scored a TD on every drive, but they didn't. They still made mistakes here and there, Tampa made a play or two, but what if Shakir and Kincaid are establishing themselves? 10 looked just like Beasley did in 2020 tonight. Tampa's secondary is no joke and we shredded it. There are kinks to work out, things to "complain" about, but the bones are still there to hope that we can catch fire at the right time. If we can pick up enough wins along the way, I'm okay with waiting to catch fire. It's not quite time yet. Something tells me these guys understand that on some level, even though they of course are trying to be great every play. I know we want the Bills to look perfect, and Sean to look perfect, but this team was as put together as any team I've seen on a Thursday night this year. That football is BAD. It's bad for a reason. And the Bills did not look the same type of bad most teams do in that setting. They are a good, well-coached team, no matter what people say, even if changes will ultimately have to be made. But that decision point is months away and I'm not ready to give up and assume it will happen yet. Go Bills.

Is this like football astrology?