theRalph

The excitement of a possible trade into the top five has given way to the discussion of the dangers of trading up...only done by desperate teams. A certain WGR afternoon host is calling trading up just plain dumb. I beg to differ: Since 1998 there have been 27 quarterbacks selected amongst the top five picks of each of the 20 drafts that have occured. At least 14 - 16 of these are what I would term "franchise quarterbacks". The names include Manning, Palmer, McNabb, Vick, Manning, Rivers, Smith, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Luck, Mariota, Goff Wentz, Trubisky. So "crap shoot" is a bit strong of a term to describe about a 50 - 60% hit rate on top five picks at QB. Additionally, you must give consideration to the fact that top five QB picks have been made by teams that did poorly the previous season. Sending top picks to bad teams has resulted in making busts of many other QBs that may well have excelled in better systems. Brady's success - being selected in the 6th round - isn't so much about the marvel of a low pick being undiscovered as it is about him going to a franchise that wasn't broken in the first place. The fact is only 8 times have 2 QBs been selected in the 1st round and just once have 3 of the first 5 picks been QBs (1999). So in a draft where perhaps an unprecedented 6 QBs may be taken in the first round, it would seem that taking one in the top five (if you can get there) is a pretty good bet. Not a crap shoot.

He is being given a chance. He'll likely start in September. Just what is your beef?

Since the Colts-Jets trade, the debate has shifted to the wisdom of trading up further with say, the Giants at a giant cost. Specifically, there is the argument that history shows selecting a quarterback with a top pick doesn't usually work out. Its a 30% - 50% hit rate depending on whom you ask. So if the hit rate is so low, why trade the farm for a high risk bet? Because the risk isn't really as high as it would seem. Right now it might be at an all time low. From the 1998 draft to present, there have been 26 quarterbacks selected within the top five picks of the 20 drafts held. Only once has there been 3 quarterbacks picked in the top five picks, and 2 being picked in the first five has occurred just 8 times. I listed the 27 names and decided that I would consider 14 or 15 as "franchise quarterbacks". The names include Manning, Palmer, McNabb, Manning, Rivers, etc. That's more than half that were worth the risk of a top five pick. And if that stat isn't telling enough, look at the other 12 non-franchise prospects and their respective teams. These teams - that were bad enough to get the high draft pick in the first place - certainly ruined a number of perfectly sound prospects with terrible training and coaching that got them to a top-five pick. So here we have a perhaps historical quarterback draft, the best since '83, with the possibility of four quarterbacks being taken with the first five picks. And you're a decent team with a good coach, smart GM, and a war chest of draft picks, and at least four top-rated quarterbacks in a league that sees so few drafted at the top. And you're going to shy away from trading into maybe the #2 pick because why??? The historical hit rate for getting it right on a highly selected quarterback is maybe precise, but is highly inaccurate. Seems like Beane knows what he's doing. I give them a great shot at selecting a future star if they believe one is worth the trade up to #2. Somehow it feels like Josh Allen or Darnold.

Gettleman has already traded away picks for veteran signings. Of course he's interested in trading. It'll be expensive, as it should be. And Gettleman will shine for the trade. He not only gets a slew of picks including two first rounders that night, but he gets to rub the Jets nose in ****. Ha. Buffalo has the capital.

Allen, of course.

Fools! My God how the Jet's trade has so many in a kerfuffle. And this talk of Nick Foles, after the AJ signing. The Jets didn't trade for the Giants' #2 pick...not because the price is too high...but because the Jets and Giants organizations fairly despise one another and would never do business. Beane and the Giants GM have a relationship. That's always been the trade. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Colt's new #6 in play as part of a deal that get the Bills to #2. There is no Nick Foles. There is only the plan that began when we traded #10 last draft. The Bills have the war chest to do it and will. The pick will be Josh Allen.

AJ signing is a clear indication that Buffalo will trade up for Josh Allen.

In the Oliver Stone film "Any Given Sunday" Coach Tony D'Amato (Al Pacino) gives a locker room speech before the Sharks' playoff game against the Dallas Knights. In that speech, he tells the team that "in any fight, it's the guy who's willing to die that's going to win that inch". The Bills and their fans have their collective heart ripped out so many many times over the course of THE DROUGHT. So many times that it became numbing. So many times, that we all became hardened by the heartache. But year after year we were willing to take that pain again for the chance at the postseason. And if we felt that way as fans, how must guys like Kyle, Eric, Lorenzo, Ritchie and others have felt over those years? Now we're on the other side of the looking glass. Black is White and White is Black. And THE DROUGHT, our nemesis for a generation, has now become the Bills' sworn ally. The achievement of breaking THE DROUGHT, after so very long, turns the weight of it into a wrecking ball, that is now being squarely aimed at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Not predicting anything here. But the point is, the result of Sundays wildcard game won't really matter in the larger scheme of breaking THE DROUGHT. And the Bills know this. And so do the Jaguars. That makes the Buffalo Bills a very dangerous team for their opponent this weekend and any other opponents that follow. Because when you've beaten THE DROUGHT, mere NFL opponents don't scare you too much. The Bills will eventually win a SB with McDermott. Then, finally, THE DROUGHT will simply become the drought.

SMH. This isn't an exercise in Stats 101 by counting wins against the Patriots. The point was that the Patriots are an embodiment of The Drought. Their domination of the Bills is at the very heart of The Drought. Also, many commenters are ignoring my noting the timing of this game. Most of the Bills' wins quoted the comments are either early in the season or late, when the Patriots sit starters. Its unusual for the Bills to meet them this late for the first game.

The Bills come face-to-face with The Drought this Sunday. Getting a 7th win this Sunday doesn't put the Bills in the postseason. Sure, it will help loads based on the schedule, but this Sunday is about The Drought. New England and Tom Shady have, of course, been at the root of The Drought since it started. And while most define The Drought as "not making the postseason", The Drought is, more precisely, "not beating New England". Their domination of the Bills is the common thread that weaves through the 17 years. There's a belief that these Bills can end The Drought. It's a weak AFC and 9-7 may even get a berth. But at the heart of the matter is the New England Patriots. They're the lynchpin of the AFC and The Drought. McDermott knows this and and knows the need for the win in this spot. There's even a conspiracy theory that McDermott has been setting up the Pats with the losing streak and QB juggling. That's a bit far out, but I wonder what he'd do to beat New England... The timing is right and the stage is certainly set with the streaking Patriots visiting what will be an insane Ralph (New Era) and the Bills off the road win in the Draft Pick Bowl. As uncanny as the Bills drought is, it makes sense that it might be broken in a season where it was least expected. About as uncanny as the underdog Bills whipping the Patriots on a December Sunday that's meaningful. The Bills have an opportunity and are capable of ending The Drought. This weekend. Just got a feeling.

Drought psychosis is reigning supreme. Everywhere. Except at One Bills Drive. Yes, it was a disaster. But shut down your emotions for a moment and consider the facts: 1. Peterman went 3-3 before the first INT. Who among us, after the throw to Benjamin, did not shout “that’s the throw we’ve been looking for!!!” 2. Pat DiMarco should have his beard plucked out whisker by whisker for playing beach volleyball with a throw right on his hands. That 1st INT wrecked the day. 3. We didn’t expect it, but Peterman’s start revealed stark weaknesses on the offensive line. On 2 of the interceptions, he had pass rushers in his grill. And it certainly wasn’t because he was holding out of the ball too long. 4. So 3 of the 5 INTs weren’t exactly Peterman’s fault. The other two were his fault. Dak Prescott also had two very similar INTs 2 hours later, at home, vs. the Eagles. For as much as fans go on and on about the drought, they really don’t give credence to the fact that the drought has tremendous negative energy. This may sound crazy but I believe Peterman’s start actually put a dent in that energy and that energy bit back. When you arrive at this understanding, you will understand that it will be much more difficult for the bills to break the drought that it will for them to go on a run in the playoffs. Peterman starts in Kansas City, Mark my words.

I predicted this in my post yesterday. Thanks. Tyrod couldn't function in this offense in preseason. Then he struggled early in the season. Then, the offense was tweaked and Tyrod got outside a lot, mostly throwing and sometimes running. Best examples are his 3rd down pickups and the throw to O'Leary. But defenses caught on. Linebackers started staying back and Tyrod couldn't run...vs Jets and Saints he was surrounded. The time it takes for him to set up and throw allows teams to easily read the Bills offense and crowd the line against the run. When he did throw quick, it was batted down. In three Sundays they will be calling Peterman the next Brady. And it will be because LeSean McCoy can run. You read it here.

Well... There it is.

So Sean, why did you put Peterman in? Certainly not to win the game...it was way too late. To save face for Tyrod? I don't think so. Was Tyrod hurt? No. The only other reason to put him in was because he will soon be starting. McDermott belied the coach speak he was using to recast his vote of confidence in Tyrod. "Nathan’s a good player,” McDermott said. “I like what he did yesterday. I think he did some good things in the game. I know where they’re coming from, from a fan's standpoint.” He added the "from a fan's standpoint" after a pause, as if he thought to make sure no one took that as his thought. Don't be fooled. Behind closed doors at One Bills Drive, discussions about the quarterback play are in full swing. The issue with the offense is no different than it was in preseason. Except now, defensive coordinators have figured out Taylor. In the preseason and first couple of games, Taylor was largely ineffective in Dennison's offense. Specifically, he was unable to throw a quick slant or out from under center. So after a few games, we saw offensive changes that involved moving Taylor around. This helped some - to wit, the throw to O'Leary. But defenses caught up. The Jets and Saints linebackers didn't penetrate at times, preventing the surrounded Taylor from lateral escape. The Bills countered this with a nice QB draw on Sunday, but with nothing else. The true counter to this is the quick throw. When linebackers must respect and cover low crossers, then they cannot crowd the box. Taylor's inability to make the quick throw, the initial issue, is still the issue. Nathan Peterman is able to make these throws. We saw it in preseason and saw it again immediately upon entering the game. The rest is simple. When you can throw, you can move the ball. And use clock. And not subject your defense to 41+ minutes on the field.

Sean and Brandon would love to win a Super Bowl. They'd probably trade five losing seasons for The Ring. It looked as though they were willing to trade at least one bad season - this one - with the trades made in preseason. Let's face it, most of us settled in for a 5-11 campaign. McDermott was asked last week if he was surprised by the prowess of his defense, so early in his program. For as little as he says in the pressers, his answer that the D was maybe ahead of schedule speaks volumes. So does the appearance of a weaker AFC. And a 3-2 mark at the bye is decidedly a surprise. Even with the loss in Cincinnati. I wonder if Team McBean is having well-concealed second thoughts about shedding Watkins & Woods based on where the circumstances of this season may have taken them. We know Tyrod has them. Can't help but think Watkins alone would't have been worth three TDs so far and probably 4-1 or 5-0. https://youtu.be/X0cfOCAsFlk

This call was perfectly within the rules. We see, prior to Ryan's hand moving forward, the chop from Hughes, wherein Ryan loses control of the football...it moves independent of his hand. Though Ryan attempts and somewhat succeeds in regaining his grip, he doesn't regain CONTROL of the ball, per the definition of acquiring control. Had the ball not momentarily dislodged, it's called incomplete.

I would say "typically unimaginative of the NFL", if it weren't for the the fact that the NFL requires SB halftime performers to "pay-to-play". Last I heard, performers were required to pay between $250K- $300K for the privilege of gracing the field at half time. Hell, it's a good marketing investment. But this is the reason we see used-to-be-kind-of-OK retread performers (with enough capital to pony up) as opposed to something we haven't seen before. But alas, if, as CNN reports, most Americans don't understand what the NFL athletes are protesting (social injustice and an idiot president - not disrespect of our fine military men and women), then how in Lord's name could they be expected to tell the difference between good music and the tripe served up by our inimitable millennial pop-culture. Fortunately, the extended SB halftime will allow me the chance to deep fry another 20 wings and avoid halftime altogether.

Very well put....and a great plan. I would have never guessed it, but the NFL since last weekend is imposing a litmus test on fans (and non-fans) for racism. Because those doing the protesting have never so much hinted at any disdain for the military. Nor have they soiled, sullied, or otherwise denigrated the American Flag. They are simply bringing attention to the systematic institutional racism in this nation in total lockstep with the First Amendment. And most of the service men and women I've listened to state that they support the protests. They don't have to agree. Thats...ah...kind of what our Constitution is all about. It's the Constitution and our rights they were and are fighting for - and not for the rights of bigots to tell others what they should do. I actually saw a FB post where an individual (who perhaps no so coincidentally had a poor grasp of English spelling and Grammar) stated he would beat the s*%t out of anyone that did not respect the flag and our military dead. Incredible. SMH. A litmus test. And the results are terrifying.

Last time I checked, it was final score that determined winners and losers of games. Matt Stafford threw for 125 in the Lions' rout of the NY Giants. Siemian threw for 239...26 more yards that Tyrod - and lost. I'm more impressed with the efficiency of Taylor last week. Not to say I would not mind seeing him consistently throw for 300 - but only with maintaining the efficiency. If I had the time, I would like to learn what percentage of 300+ yard passing games result in wins. The other point is that defense - not the opposing D - but, in this case the Bills' D, has a huge effect on this. Brady threw for 300+ against the Texans because he had to. The Pats defense is last in the league. Passing yards will always be limited when a team is up and able to run for some first downs to eat clock.

Kyle Orton on the WOF is insanity that approaches the insanity of the racism oozing out of this nation since last week. Have you been so enveloped by the drought that you need to honor a player that was maybe a millimeter above mediocre?

He's been on my fantasy team since day one. Total stud.

And it wouldn't have gotten any notoriety either. And how do you propose to know what the players are protesting...what they do or don't take pride in?? We have protests of some kind every day in our nation. The few...very few protesters at the time...were singled out by the president. Divisively and most disrespectfully. Did not Trump disrespect their constitutional rights by that act? Did not he himself disrespect the constitution...as much a symbol as the flag or anthem??? Had he worded it tactfully, none of this occurs. What an egotistical dipshit.

Atlanta barely got by Chicago and Detroit. They have not faced a defense of the level thus far demonstrated by the Bills. I, for one, expect a win. What I'm wondering is how the football intelligencia will explain away why Atlanta wasn't as good as thought. The Bills will have to go 7-1 or 6-2 before they are given any credit.

We're getting miles from the point here. This began a year ago when a very thoughtful quarterback decided to use the platform of an NFL player to protest racial inequality and institutional racism in the U.S. Those aspects of our country are obscene. Yesterday's massive amp-up of this was in response to the Nation's top political figure calling protesting NFL players "Sons of Bitches"that should be fired - likewise obscene. Maybe Trump is actually brilliant in that his words last Friday have inspired more action and talk about racism than Kaepernick' kneeling ever could have. Or he's exceedingly egomaniacal. Either way, same result.

That's all pretty accurate. So is the fact that the Bills were tops in a number of categories in rushing over the past couple of seasons. So why not continue this?? Because it resulted in 8-8 and 7-9. This is a passing league. When you start pulling linemen, you're telling your opponent you're running. It's an instant key. The Bills were still capable of pulling it off but alas it's still .500 ball. If Tyrod Taylor was capable of a 3-step drop and IMMEDIATE throw (there were guys open) then Carolina would have been forced to respect the tight end and slot receiver. Then your run lanes open up. I don't believe the Bills hired an entirely new coaching staff just to do the same thing as their predecessors. Sean McDermott cannot bench Taylor immediately and hope to keep the team focused. But at some point, we will see Nathan Peterman behind center. He may not be a 22 yo version of Tom Brady (and then again, he might be), but he demonstrated the ability to make immediate throws. Yeah yeah I know it was preseason. But the fact is that a proper quick NFL throw can be carried out regardless of the competition. Rick Dennison is charged with creating an NFL offense. It requires an NFL quarterback.