The Frankish Reich

And as usual people are seeing what they are predisposed to see. One of my kids just sent me a bunch of memes - everything is about Trump's weight comparing him to various 6'3" 215 athletes. Meanwhile my dad is telling me how Trump's mugshot shows he is a fighter.

Those homoerotic images of Trump should be banned. Children could be here!

Haha ... former small town mayor to former governor to former VP candidate to failed Dancing with the Stars contestant to failed congressional candidate to ... ... NEWSMAX commentator. Not even Fox, or minor league Fox Business. NEWSMAX. Kind of like the NFL first-round pick who winds up playing in the XFL.

The first part is true. Returns under Biden have not been "stellar." More "normal" overall. But take a look at this chart - particularly the Bush 43 years and the Obama years: https://www.investopedia.com/presidents-and-their-impact-on-the-stock-market-4587369 The second part is not true if we talk about the post-COVID shutdowns economy. Overall, the markets have seen huge gains, followed by a rapid uptick in inflation. I think it's fair to say that the investor class* has done extremely well while the middle class has borne the brunt of price increases. *perhaps more accurate to compare "those with investable savings" vs. "those with significant debt." And right now, with rising interest rates, the first class is still doing just fine (what's so bad about 5% interest rates on safe fixed income investments?) and the latter class is going to feel the pain (rising rates on credit card debt, consumer loans, mortgages). This is life in a capitalist economy.

Ugh. I can do this all morning (well, for another 15 minutes or so till I have a meeting): S&P 500 is up about 14% since Biden was inaugurated. No, that's not the doubling that greedy equity investors somehow think is sustainable. But it's 14% up over the course of 31 months, even as the Fed has embarked on its longest sustained interest rate increase program in over 40 years. So that's on average about 5.5% per year annualized, which is right within the normal long term range. And it means that at that sustained rate an investment of, say, $100,000 would double in 13 years. The "investor class" (again, I dispute the Bernie Sanders-ish terminology, since that includes everyone with a 401k) has nothing to whine about.

And if they'd had more guns they could've shot the fire dead.

I would like to see more money spent on geoengineering research. It is a critical issue. But if people believe it truly is a threat to the continued existence of human life on the planet, we ought to be thinking outside the box here instead of just taking prudent incremental steps to reduce emissions over decades.

And I wonder where Black Rock and Vanguard get all that money to buy stock in S&P 500 companies? Could it be that they get it from institutional (think "pension funds") and individual (think: you and me and our 401ks) investors? If I were as childish as some here, I would have just responded "commie!" After all, you are blaming "the capitalists."

I will grant you this - the media ask questions like the "raise your hand if" one that don't really allow for a sensible answer. If I were up there, I would have tried to answer three different questions, something no one has time for: 1. Is the climate changing? Answer: yes. Clearly. The world as a whole is warming. 2. Is this explained in whole or in part by greenhouse gas emissions? Answer: Yes, at least in part. But we do not know whether 80% of the warming is attributable to human action or whether its as low as 50% or 20%. 3. Is it prudent to take steps as a country and as a world to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Answer: yes. On a U.S. level, it is prudent to take such steps. But (as Vivek noted) it is critical to also work with other huge contributors (China, India, others) if such steps are to have an appreciable impact. Of course, country (USA) level interventions will have to be balanced against economic and other costs (mining of rare earth metals, etc) in developing sound policies. I would guess that 90% of informed voters would agree with me on these 3 propositions. Good luck giving any candidate time to explain. And good luck getting any candidate to answer in anything other than political talking points ("mass extinction!" "hoax!")

Well, yeah! The investor class was pretty damn happy with stock market returns in 2020-21. It was, in retrospect, pretty absurd (we paid the price with inflation later). "15 days to stop the spread" was announced by the White House on March 16, 2020. The S%P closed at 2425. On December 30, 2021, it closed at 4778. Doubled during the course of 20.5 months, which of course included a time in which huge parts of the economy were shut down. This is what the government can do when it takes unprecedented interventions in the economy. But there was no free lunch ...

WTF was that Vivek hand doing? That's just weird. This makes sense: Vivek as Trump's stalking horse, aimed squarely at Ron. Vivek is going to be the subject of a whole lot of oppo research now, and he deserves it. There's a lot of pretty unsavory things in his pharma bro past.

Damn media, conspiring to frame poor Sirhan.

The investor class has had it easy. Agreed. The powers that be, both elected (Congress/White House) and "deep state" (the Fed) did not want to see the kind of market collapse that probably should have accompanied a pandemic that caused a severe fall in output. So all those interventions protected - overprotected in my mind - the investors, in an attempt to avoid the harm of an actual depression. We can and should debate whether it was too much and whether the spoils of those interventions were equitably distributed. But the bottom line is we did emerge in relatively good shape economically. That doesn't mean we just say everything is awesome and stop worrying about deficits and inflation and interest rates. But still: relatively good shape.

Says a lot about the composition of this forum.

It's a good, solid return for people with a medium to long-range time horizon. The problem, of course, is that the markets were on a sugar high during peak COVID as the Fed held interest rates near zero, continued to pump the money supply, and Congress and the White House (both occupants of it) went on a spending spree, dumping huge amounts of money into the economy. Without those interventions we would have seen a significant market decline in 2020 and 2021, no doubt followed by a bigger rebound in 2022 and 2023. I guess it's good to make money, although you seem a bit unsure of that ... Where's the eyeroll emoji you use all the time?

S&P 500 up 14.7% since Biden was inaugurated. More proof that perceptions are out of step with reality.

A perfect Richard Thompson song. As an Englishman, he had a little fun writing it, using references to English place names in a heavily bluegrass influenced song. And he's such a great guitarist that he can pull it off playing solo. McCoury I think substituted the more typical American place names. "Red hair and black leather, that's my favorite color scheme."

Vivek is running to be Trump's VP and the Republican presidential candidate in 2028. He provided no reason other than "I'm young" to vote for him instead of Trump. She strikes me as the Republican who would fare best in November 2024. She could swing a lot of independent voters. But I don't see any path for her to get nominated given the mindset of Republican caucus/primary voters today.

I have nothing personal against Carlos Santana, and I'm not even offended by these comments. But please, please cancel him so I don't have to hear those tedious guitar solos anymore. He always struck me as the most boring of the so-called great rock guitarists.

True. The weight thing is just funny because it is so incredibly childish. He just reported his weight as 240 in the Manhattan case, and I think everyone had to assume he was doing the usual driver's license thing of shaving 5 or 10 pounds (at least) off the real number. 215 is like what he weighed in his 30s. Such a stupid, pointless, LOL lie coming from a 77 year old man tells us more than anything he said today.

Well ... ... I don't know how old you are. I suspect quite a bit younger than me. I spent a lot of time in school. Probably did at least one more degree than was really necessary. Didn't own a home until my late 30s. Then finally began to accumulate enough to pay off those loans, which weren't paid off until I was over 50. But they really weren't burdensome by that time. It takes time. I hear a lot of millennial and Gen Z types talking about how hard it is to buy a home now. True. But not exactly a new thing, depending on where you live. Hard where I lived for sure, in the SF Bay Area. Not so hard when I moved to Colorado at that time. Really not hard at all in WNY. Upper middle class does mean more taxes. But it also means you're probably not ever moving down the economic ladder. And the normal thing is you're economic security won't peak until you're at least in your 50s. Patience and a bit of delayed gratification were lessons I learned just in time.

Sorry, but that's just silly. Ukraine is being bombed relentlessly. It is literally impossible to conduct any kind of election in large parts of the country. They have been invaded. They're going to set up polling station in the Donbas? And if they had elections without polling that part of the country, would those elections be considered legitimate, having excluded nearly every Ukrainian citizen who has pro-Russian allegiances? There was talk of postponing the NYC mayoral transition (remember America's Mayor? ahh, what an innocent age) after 9/11, and that was for a horrific attack but one that immediately impacted a few square blocks of a massive 5 borough city. In the end it wasn't necessary, but I don't recall anyone thinking that it was an outrageous suggestion.

I liked him too. He was a rare thing in politics c. 2023: a gentleman.

Really, couldn't the Fulton Cty Sheriff at least throw him on a scale? Even if that isn't protocol? There was a betting line on this! Real money riding on it. I think they said the over/under was 274.5. Instead they tell us that he grew an inch and lost 25 lbs since his Manhattan surrender. Boo.