GunnerBill

I'm not sure I'd quite have Rice in the elite category. Very good player. Had established himself as a legit #1, but I do think elite is a stretch. On your wider point they have at times been down their #1 WR, the guy they signed as a FA to be their #2, their starting running back, their elite kicker and their #1 outside corner which has meant moving McDuffie outside and then trying to backfill at nickel. So hard to say they have had injury luck. Where they had luck this year was the Broncos FG block, that is a 1 in every 50 play, the Raiders botched snap when in FG range, and Likely's toe v Baltimore week 1. I do think they have had the break of the ball a time or two.

Yea just cos of volume. You could plough anyone into the line a ton of times for 4 ypc.

Meh. I am not sure Mixon is that important to them.

We are fast approaching one of my favourite events in the pre-draft calendar, the East-West Shrine Bowl. I still long for the days when it was the Shrine Game not the Shrine Bowl and when it was played on the Saturday of Conference Championship weekend, not the Thursday of that week, but because the NFL pushed the Superbowl out a week with an 18 game season the Senior Bowl decided staying in the pre-Superbowl bye slot would be too late and therefore the Shrine game sacrificed its slot. That's a shame and I think it has affected the game a little bit the past couple of years, especially because you used to get smaller school kids turning up, balling out all week and then getting replacement calls to go down to Mobile for Senior Bowl practices starting the following Monday. Anyway, this year's game is Thursday 30 January and it is going to get the most attention it has in a long time because Shedeur Sanders (and his brother Shilo) have both accepted invitations. I'm not sure if a Shrine Bowler has ever been drafted 1st overall in an NFL Draft, if they have it was a long time ago. Gayle Sayers being drafted 4th overall back in 1965 is the best I can come up with. Sanders may not end up 1st overall but if 4th is indeed the highest a Shrine Bowlers has ever been selected there is a fair chance Sanders beats that. The rest of accepted invites have some interesting names among them too. Picked out a few to keep an eye on below: Zy Alexander - Corner - LSU Tall, thin, rangey cornerback. Classic LSU corner who excels in zone coverage probably looking like a late day 2 / early day 3 pick Fadil Diggs - Edge Rusher - Syracuse Powerful, athletic edge rusher. Technically unrefined but physically talented. Plays a big smaller than his size probably day 3 but developmental traits. Jamon Dumas-Johnson - Linebacker - Kentucky Versatile off the ball linebacker who transferred from Georgia to Kentucky this year. Former 4-star recruit, if he tests well and has a good process could end up as an early day 3 pick. Tre Harris - Wide Receiver - Ole Miss Big bodied receiver who put up a 1,000 yard season and is a big play threat. Needs some route running polish but if he tests well will go off the board on day 2. Jordan Phillips - Defensive Tackle - Maryland No, not that Jordan Phillips. This one is sleeper day 3 guy who still needs a lot of technical refinement but has a really explosive first step that will impress teams. Jay Higgins - Linebacker - Iowa One of my early draft crushes for 2025. Archetypal, modern, instinctive, coverage linebacker. Watch him rise in this process. I think he could sneak into day 2. Kenneth Grant - Defensive Tackle - Michigan Big, powerful, 1 tech who is going to dominate against the run but has some burst to penetrate too. After Shedeur Sanders the second most likely day 1 guy on the roster. Kyle McCord - Quarterback - Syracuse Let the nation in passing yards in 2024 having transferred from Ohio State. Likely does get picked on day 3 as a developmental guy. Shavon Revel - Corner - ECU (won't play) Really talented, long corner, out of East Carolina. I think his tape is borderline first round worthy, but tore his ACL in September might end up in day 2. I'll update this thread with the guys that caught my eye after the game in a couple of weeks time.

I don't think the problem is the 10, 11, 12 seeds. It is the insistence in rewarding winners of 2nd tier conferences. There is a premier league of college football. It is the SEC and the Big 10.

He has, although the concerns I had have shown themselves up at times - last Sunday being a prime example. His coverage has not been great, all year, but he has been a more consistent and more reliable box safety than I expected. His discipline in run fits when around the line has been better than I'd have given him credit for. I called him backup level before the season but I'm at the point where if you can find a good free safety to pair him with I'm fine with them running him back as the starter in 2025, though they still have to upgrade that unit IMO. I know some are of the view that with a full camp you can try Bishop at free safety and go with that tandem, I am less persuaded. I think you find a mid range vet centre fielder and then let Rapp and Bishop compete for strong safety.

I think he is talking more about the length, especially the freakishly long arms.

A formula needs a rationale beyond arbitrary assigning of numbers. That said, if @Chaos is auditioning for job on Madden this is right on point.

I have no idea what this means.

He is confusing two seasons - 2020 and 2021 at receiver. John Brown was not on the team for 13 seconds. He was released at the end of the 2020 season and replaced by Emmanuel Sanders. Diggs was healthy in 2021 he was banged up and not moving smoothly in the AFCCG in at the end of 2020 season.

Chad Michael Murray

I have zero idea. If you want a guy who is a career OC from hereon in it is Arthur Smith.

It depends by who..... I think you have a group of non-heralded players who are underrated: Connor McGovern is the leader in the clubhouse in that regard, but David Edwards is in that mix, Reggie Gilliam is in that mix and I think until the last few weeks arguably Ty Johnson too. Then there is a group that the fanbase generally underrates and indeed hates on at times that are better than their reputation: The big two here are Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver. Both first round picks and both among our best players on defense. I know PFF grades are not everything but they were ranked 1st and 3rd among our defensive starters in season grades (Benford was 2nd). Neither is elite and so get hated on but both are critical cogs in this D even though I don't think Oliver has had his best year (he came on strong late and was great the final 5 or 6 weeks). Also in this group though at a lower level is Damar Hamlin. I still maintain he is not a true starting standard NFL talent. But he has not been a total liability this season that some fans would have you think. Some of that is the scheme protecting him but he has clearly played better than Cole Bishop has when he has had opportunities and deserves to start. I think you can throw Dawson Knox in this category too, and there are certainly some fans who will never get past the dropsies he had earlier in his career. His is certainly overpaid for his current usage, which leads to some of the criticism he gets, but I still argue he is underused as a pass catcher (69% of his receptions as a Bill are for 1st downs or touchdowns compared to 49% for Kincaid and his underlying separation metrics are consistently strong) and he has become a critical part of our run game success. Then lastly there is a group that I think most Bills fans and watchers know are really good but who haven't got the national attention or accolades they deserve to this point: Here I put Christian Benford who has been one of the best 5 or 6 outside corners in football this year, Khalil Shakir who is pretty much unknown outside of Buffalo circles and Spencer Brown who at worst was the 3rd best right tackle in football in 2024 and yet got not a single all pro vote while guys he is better than in Zach Tom and Brian O'Neill did pick up the scraps behind Penei Sewell and Lane Johnson.

This has been his worst year in a while. Sure. If you are taking this year in isolation you can made the argument. But in terms of what he is paid against the player he has been in his career? He is underpaid IMO. He is better than the 18th best DT in football. I accept until the final month of the season we didn't see it consistently enough in 2024.

The piece Belichik did on inside the NFL on the Steelers vs the Ravens run game really brought home to me how much this comes down to execution. Pittsburgh had its big guys in there. But they lacked patience, their eye discipline was poor and they were doing way too much guessing. Remember when Chan Gailey said "plays are more fun that fundamentals, but fundamentals are more important than plays"? He was talking about offense but it applies to defense this week. This game does not come down to "are the Bills in nickel or base?" It will not come down to big people vs little people. It will come down to eye discipline, lane discipline, patience, angles and tackling fundamentals. The coaching that has happened in the classroom and on the training field all week will count for more than whatever Bobby Babich sends into Bernard's helmet each play.

Yep to a lot of this. And I haven't quoted all the lines I agree with for space but you are spot on about the Ravens targetting it. Todd Monken had an exceptional gameplan. He knew the 2nd level of the Bills D was hurting and he just called play after play after play that made those guys the critical point of failure. Whether it was the trap runs that neutralised the dline and forced a linebacker to make the critical tackle or the running backs in the passing game that isolated Lewis (when we were in nickel) or Morrow (when we tried to run base) in coverage. It was ruthless. I give him so much credit because at no point did he go "let me show how clever I am" and call for splash plays. He just stayed on our weakness the whole game and said I'm gonna go at them until they stop me. And they never did.

It is missing the two Seattle guys Williams and Jones. It may well be brigading them as defensive ends because of that system in 3 downman looks. But they are interior DLs not edge guys.

They will only formally interview Sanders if they decide they want to hire him and are confident he wants the job IMO. Essentially if he interviews, he is getting the job to me. I expect some more flirting in both directions, some briefing and counter briefing, a lot of media speculation and then the Cowboys to hire Kellen Moore.

He isn't 9th in 2024. He is 18th right now... in the 2024 season. He is underpaid whwn I look at what the guys above him are getting, many of whom are not as good. On Singletary, yea. Total JAG. Never had the skillset to be a starting running back and since leaving here was a backup in Houston to a guy that has since been relegated to a backup role himself and then was nominally the starter for 6 weeks in New York before being comprehensively outplayed by a 5th round rookie. Certainly not a bust, but definition of a JAG. The league has told us what they think of him.

Sanders is yet to be interviewed and, regardless, you need two interviews now to satisfy the Rooney Rule. They are expected to interview Frazier and Saleh to satisfy the rule by early next week. That then gives them the freedom to hire pretty much whoever they like on the spot after that.

Ed isn't overpaid. He has the 18th highest DT contract in football by AAV. I'd actually argue he is slightly underpaid despite having had one of the poorer seasons of his career this year.

I agree but its never going back.

It is a flaw in the methodology I have discussed before with @JGMcD2. I think it is a decent method for looking at drafting success but I think it over rewards finding contributors and under rewards finding superstars. The Bills miss in the draft way less than your average NFL team. Even with Elam in terms of true misses for 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks it is three guys: Ford, Boogie and Elam in six drafts between 2018 and 2023 (too early to call anything on 2024).

They could do worse than Moore. Probably could do better too, but I think he'd be at least a credible hire. It's different having a 65 year old coach to hiring one.

I have seen the "Witten is a former Cowboys tight end just like Dan Campbell. Witten was always smarter than Dan Campbell and Dan Campbell has done great in Detroit!" Sure. Campbell also spent 11 years paying his dues including a spell as interim HC in Miami and a number of years as Assistant Head Coach under Sean Payton. I think that's better prep than than Witten's "Jerry likes me" case for the job.