GunnerBill

And Zay did adjust. And he has had himself a reasonable career. That wasn't the question though. What we had seen in 2017 was pretty clear what his ceiling was - if he could sort his issues out he was going to be a solid enough possession receiver and chain mover. Even if he had fully sorted the hands that was the type of player he was and is (2018 was actually his 2nd best career year by yards and a career year by touchdowns). So it was obvious by year 2 he wasn't going to be a #1 receiver. When it is pretty apparent going into a season that a 2nd year player of that type is your best receiver (and Zay was our best receiver in 2018) you are in trouble. Our receiver room going into 2024 is certainly less than stellar. But going into 2018 it was a disaster.

Yes. Because of dumb ***** the players did. That game was a total coaching mismatch. It should have been a blowout win.

I think he outcoached McDaniel by a long way in 2022. But for turnovers by offense the Bills win that going away. But sure he hasn't outcoached his opposite number in the playoffs a ton of times. But equally I don't think a ton of the losses have been coaching failure either.

Yes. Players make great plays on bad calls too. And they make terrible plays on good calls. You have to watch the tape and try and separate one from the other. That is my entire point on this. Coaching is about more than end result. Sometimes as a coach (and I have been paid to do it in another sport) you walk off a field and think I got everything wrong today and got the right result. And sometimes you walk off a field and go I got everything right and lost. That is the beauty of sport. The best coach doesn't always win. The best team doesn't always win. There are sufficient variables to make it unpredictable. That is why people love it.

Yes. Of course he has to take responsibility. But 31 coaches lose every year. You have to work out how much that ultimately rests on coaching in each case.

If the offense stalls because the scheme fails, or because the play calling sucks, sure. It was individual player error.

I was wrong on Josh Allen. That humility has long since been demonstrated. But I called Zay and Kelvin before 2018 and on that I was right. So if you want me to take the lumps for the misses (and I agree, I should) you have to also credit the hits. My last few first round mocks have been pretty darn good as well (27, 27, 28 of the 32 first rounders the last 3 years). And I don't know who has told you I do 300+ prospects. My number is usually around half that. I get to 140-150 give or take.

Sure. Everything "stops with the Head Coach." But McDermott didn't cause that defeat. Nor did Leslie Frazier. Or the defense. Their offense made a couple of crazy plays (they still had prime Watson and Hopkins, they were good) and our offense puked on itself.

Yes. I do. The Houston metdown was mainly on the offense throwing up all over itself. Houston made a couple of crazy 1 in a 100 plays on offense. The defense did not blow that game.

Yes.

I knew Zay wasn't it and Benjamin was a bust by 2018.

I have watched lots of all of them. They are not.

To be clear I don't think anyone is making the bolded assumption. This assumption isn't about whether the Bills would be better with Diggs or Samuel in 2024. That is pretty besides the point now, Diggs is not here. It is about whether going into the this season the Bills are better or worse than they have been going into the last two seasons at receiver. To me they are definitely better in the slot, with Shakir's development and Samuel's ability to play there as required too. But there are weaker outside. Even if Samuel has a career year, expecting him to be Stefon Diggs level of his first 3 and a half years with the Bills - a top 5 receiver in football - is totally unrealistic. Time for people to remind themselves of the offense Brandon Beane believed was NFL calibre in 2018. I am honest with myself. And that is simply not true for me.

And Samuel could have a 1,000 yard season... a career year type season... like John Brown did here (I know he already had one 1k year in his past) but that wouldn't make him a #1 outside receiver talent just like it didn't make John Brown one. It would say more about the fact he is playing with Josh Allen and the lack of alternatives in the Bills' passing attack.

It's both. Do I think Samuel is capable of having a career year? Yes. Do I think he is going to be a game breaking outside receiver in the way Stef Diggs was for 3 and a half years here? No.

His separation rates have consistently been top 6 year on year. It dropped last year but even then only very marginally. So no, it is not completely subjective. It is backed by the numbers. The difference between Samuel and Diggs is talent. Samuel is a good NFL receiver. Prime Stefon Diggs was elite.

Trust me I have seen him play plenty. He is not as talented as Stefon Diggs. If wide receiver was just measurables it would be an easy game. Stef was the best route runner in the NFL. That might not show up on a combine drill but it is the single most important talent for receivers in football. And I called Coleman a big slot on here way earlier in the draft season than Matt Harmon. So I'm not someone who parrots opinions I am someone who watches the film and a lot of it. I think Samuel is good. I haven't called him just a gadget guy or even just a slot guy. He can play outside. He can have 1,000 yards in this offense, like John Brown did in 2019, but John Brown wasn't a game breaking outside receiver either. That is the thing we do not have on this roster.

I'm sorry he is just not. Diggs went in the 5th because he was injured in college and stayed home to go to Maryland. He had other offers. Stef stood out as soon as he walked on an NFL field. I like Curtis Samuel. But he is not close to as talented as Stefon Diggs. Oh Curtis Samuel can probably do that. Sure. But the problem at the end of last season was we lack guys who could truly win 1v1 outside. Once Stef was doing that less it became MUCH easier to gameplan to stop the Bills. I agree he is talented. But he isn't a game breaking outside receiver. He is a nice inside / outside move receiver. Would it shock me if he put up 1,000 yards? No. Would it shock me if he was consistently beating #1 outside corners 1v1? Yes.

Because he isn't as talented as Stef Diggs.

Chiefs. I think they will be better than the past two seasons.

Agree with you totally on Stevie. Contrary to the OP I don't think he is a fit for Josh.

And it is particularly weak OUTSIDE. I don't think you can run a top offense without any outside threat. Kincaid is really good, Cook if he can sort out the concentration drops in the redzone is really good. Knox is better than many admit, Shakir came on nicely last year and Curtis Samuel is a solid starting calibre receiver. But none of those are true outside matchup winners. And there is a reason that in the NFL, as a rule, the outside pays better than the inside. Tackles earn more than guards. Receivers earn more than tight ends and backs. Corners earn more than safeties. Because that is where it is harder to scheme to hide your deficiencies. Outside. Where it is man on man. And if that is where you lack talent then that is a problem.

AJE 9, Groot 6, Von 2. They will get at least 7 or 8 from Ed Oliver to add to that.... but beyond that agree it is a concern.

No its not relevant to the point. What has stopped the Bills winning a Superbowl is one question. What will happen if Diggs and Davis tear it up elsewhere is another.

I am not arguing that. The majority of that is obvious. That is irrelevant to the point I was originally responding to you on which is "what if the receivers suddenly look better elsewhere?" The answer to that question wouldn't be "ah well McDermott's defense was holding Diggs and Davis back." Those miscommunications with Gabe and overthrown deep balls to Diggs that both happened a fair amount in 2023 will be relitigated is what will happen. Whether people here like that or not.