GunnerBill

Under which philosophy?

Morning all. I said yesterday in one of the threads I was going to dig into yesterday's first down passing struggles when the all22 was out. So here we go. I think I wrongly said yesterday we were 1-7 for -7 yards on first down passes yesterday. We were actually 2-7 for -8. Our only two completions both lost yardage. That is not acceptable given 1st down is the most advantageous passing down in the NFL AND we have put on tape that we are a run first team on 1st down this season which should give us better looks when we do pass. It was a catalogue of failures on Sunday and we have gotta get it fixed. Here is my breakdown: 11:30 (1st) - 1st and 20 - Shotgun, empty. 11 personnel with a back (Davis) split wide. It is the Hollins deep shot. Ball not quite as well thrown as on first look. Hollins is clearly running a post. Allen has to leave that ball inside. Play design - good Blocking - excellent Receiver - okay, could still have tracked it better Quarterback - poor, needs to leave the ball inside 2:55 (1st) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - under center, offset I formation. 22 personnel with Gilliam in the backfield. Designed play action boot to the right with Knox, Kincaid and Hollins in the pattern. Texans defensive end (Hunter) never bites on the play action and Allen is forced to throw away. Don't love the call, Josh's attempt to sell the play action is perfunctary. Play design - poor Blocking - fine (they are blocking down, Hunter being free is by design they want him to bite on the PA) Receivers - fine, Knox and Kincaid both get some separation. Quarterback - okay, would like him to sell the PA better but likely makes no difference to the play. 7.55 (2nd) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - Shotgun, Pro Set, 11 personnel with Samuel and Cook flanking Allen. Samuel in motion, RPO, Allen fakes the hand off to Cook and throws to Samuel in flat. Linebackers sees it all the way. Loss of a yard. Play design - poor, felt forced to manufacture touch for Samuel andTexans read it all the way. Blocking - fine Receiver - poor, showed zero burst or wiggle Quarterback - fine 4:13 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback, 12 personnel with Anderson in as extra lineman. Designed PA screen to Cook slipping out the left. Brilliantly designed all three interior OL are out there with one man to block to get Cook an easy 5 yards and if they block the DB who starts to rally to the ball too it could be a touchdown play. They fail to execute the first of those blocks, Cook blown up in the backfield for a loss of 7. Play design - excellent Blocking - disaster Receiver - fine, nothing Cook could do Quarterback - good, Allen actually sells this one pretty well. 1:02 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Shotgun, singleback (Davis) and 11 personnel. Allen throws the out to Kincaid who can't bring it in. Probably should catch but the timing was off from Josh he throws it too early when falling back (not sure he needed to be the pocket was holding better than he imagined). Do I want Kincaid to make that catch? 100%. But Josh has to do better than that too. Play design - good Blocking - good Receiver - poor, should catch. Quarterback - poor, timing off and doesn't need to be backpedalling. 9:34 (3rd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback and 12 personnel with Anderson as additional lineman. Josh designed one step drop and quick hitter on the slant. Coleman doesn't seem to know the play (wasn't an audible or an RPO) head isn't round ball hits side of helmet incomplete. He had inside leverage on the corner if he catches it he just has the safety to beat and it could be a touchdown. Play design - good Blocking - N/A (quick hitter no chance of pressure) Receiver - disaster, doesn't seem to know the play Quarterback - good 0:32 (4th) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Singleback, 11 personnel but Kincaid in the slot. In his own endzone Allen tries back shoulder throw to Coleman. Pocket holds up pretty well and he has Shavers on an inbreaking route to the right which probably picks up 4 or 5 yards against zone coverage but he doesn't trust his eyes, comes off that and tries to force it to Coleman 1 on 1 who has zero separation against Lassiter in press man. Play design - okay, don't mind the design (leave aside for a secons should we run) but maybe someone Josh trusts more than the guy you just called off the practice squad getting the free release in the slot would have been an idea? Blocking - good Receiver - poor, Coleman loses the rep from the off Quarterback - poor, understand he is thinking gotta get it out of my hands and he doesn't entirely trust Shavers inside but I think he takes the wrong throw. Summary: It was a myriad of issues affecting us in our first down passing. One of the reassuring things was there isn't a really predictable tell to Brady's play calling. He uses some 1st down passes to start drives, some of it is heavy personnel, some of it is 4 or 5 wides, there is a nice mix of playaction, quick game and pure shotgun dropback. There were a couple of calls I didn't like and I do question having Shavers on the field in a big spot on that final possession (presume they were hoping he was a decoy to get Hollins free outside but didn't work) but this was not primarily a play design / play calling failure. Three of those plays - the deep ball to Hollins, the play action screen to Cook and the quick slant to Coleman had the potential to be really explosive plays for the offense and on each of them execution (firstly Allen and Hollins, then the interior offensive line and then Coleman) failed us. But the most common theme among the seven plays is receiver failure... only on the blown up play action boot and Cook when blown up on the play action screen do I thinm the receiver(s) on the play did a good enough job. And that is a worry. Josh Allen, especially first half, played poorly. That is disappointing but not a long term worry. The receivers have to be better though and unlike Josh they don't have 5 or 6 years of tape proving they can be better to fall back on. I agree with @Bocephuz having watched that game back. The poor blocking on the screen mentioned above apart the oline played better than it appeared on tv.

There were definitely a couple of early bails to the right last night. One if he hung on a split second longer he had a guy come open. The other one I noticed I thought he shoulda stood in but he might have ended up throwing it away anyway.

There are two comp picks coming for Gabe and Leonard Floyd as well. Probably two 5ths (although Gabe has an outside chance of being a 4th). Looks like: One 1st Two 2nds One 3rd Two 4ths Two 5ths Two 6ths I agree that is hardly hoarding picks in the sense of premium picks. What we really need from out draft picks is an early pick to turn into a difference maker. That is sorely missing on this roster IMO. Collecting more Benfords and Shakirs and Bernards is all well and good but difference makers are missing.

I think sucks is harsh but underwhelming? Definitely. And you are right what he is offering as a receiver has to be better to accept his failings as a blocker. Ertz was my comparison coming out. He was always utter garbage as a blocker too. But he being a receiver level talent as a pass catcher meant it was worth the trade off. It is true to say teams are defending the Bills at the moment by trying to take the middle of the field (where Kincaid works) away because they have nothing outside and that hurts him, but he needs to do more with his opportunities too. Too many mistakes so far this year.

If it looks to you like his elbow was in I recommend a trip to your local optician. It was clearly out.

What you have seen worse calls where clearly the right call was made on the field and replay overturned to a clearly wrong call? I haven't.

Just looked back at that Allen get his helmet like a second before the ball is snapped. I doubt anyone even knows he is out of the tent at that point. He is sprinting to get his helmet back but the playcall is definitely already in and they are at the line. A mistake of that magnitude? No. He is very clearly on the white. You could ask 100 NFL refs to look at that play and overturn a no catch and not 1 would do it.

Alpha, I am 100% with you on all of this.

Beane has zero authority to fire McDermott.

I am not. He landed clearly on the white. To argue otherwise is nonsensical.

The odds aren't small. They are non-existant. It was like being one number away from winning the lottery. It was close but you were clearly one number away. You can take your ticket in and ask the man to check it and he will say "ahhh sorry bud you are one number away." Would have been performative theatrics and nothing more.

Beane does not have authority to fire McDermott. How can people be fans of this team and STILL not understand the ***** basics?

Im saying it would have been entirely performative. Sure there was limited risk to throwing it. But there was zero chance of winning it. A 5 year old who has never watched football could tell you he was out of bounds.

I agree on Kincaid. I don't agree on Cook. I didn't see a single angle where it looked close to me. He was clearly out. He clearly landed out of bounds. They were 0.0%.

The announcers know sod all about the rules. I think there was a chance on that one. And it was worth throwing the red flag. But we more likely lose it than win it. It was just the cost benefit analysis was in favour of throwing it IMO. You need new glasses

There was 0.0% chance that one was being reversed. McDermott had the red flag in his hand. He was ready to throw it. He no doubt got word from upstairs he would just have looked stupid.

Cook wasn't a touchdown. He woulda been out inside the 5. And he was CLEARLY out. Kincaid I think was a catch and I do think was worth a challenge at that point in the game but I don't think there was clear enough evidence to overturn. I think 60/40 that stays on the field.

The personnel is a problem full stop IMO. The wide receivers in particular are as brutal as expected.

I am just not sure I agree with your premise that the kick would absolutely have been longer. I can see why you get there but it is still based on a ton of assumption. I agree, and have from the start, that three deep shots from the 2 was not good strategy. McDermott agrees with that. I just don't accept the part where it radically changes what happens without a first down.

Yep. And teams are going to stick with that. They know if you cede the middle to the Bills they can move the ball. They are daring us to beat them outside and entirely predictably we are struggling to do it.

You know what is interesting to me about the first down thing? The Bills are VERY bad when passing on first down. Which is really difficult to understand. Generally first down is the most advantageous passing down to start with because defenses are trying to key in on the run. Added to that we are in game five now and the Bills have established on tape that they are primarily a run first team on first down. That SHOULD result in some really advantageous looks for the Bills to pass from on first down. Last night passing first downs the Bills were 1-7 for -7 yards. That is almost unbelievable in the circumstances. And it comes to the point to me that the passing game is struggling even on downs where they should face as easy of a time as it is possible to face. Why is that? Is it playcalls? Is it protection (I think we struggle to protect in obvious passing situations but this should not be that)? Or is it skill player separation? When I get to the film of this game later this week those seven downs are the first ones I will look at. I suspect this a symptom of the skill position deficit, but will revert when I have had the chance to study. EDIT: Just checked the Ravens game - 4 of 11 for 23 yards. This is a real problem. If we can't pass in first down beyond the odd dump off to Cook or a tight end how the hell are we supposed to pass on 3rd down when the defense is selling out to stop the pass?

And they get it back with enough time to run a play, spike and kick. Completely right. I think it was the wrong plan to maximise our chance of a first down. I don't think it was the wrong plan to stop them kicking a FG. There was no right plan to stop Houston kicking a FG if the Bills didn't convert.

While Terry is the owner this is what we have.

Joe is right. It was a mistake because they needed a first down and the three plays they ran were not conducive to achieving that aim. The time is a red herring. They needed a first down. This isn't an opinion. It's a fact. McDermott does not report to Beane. They both report to Terry. It is also true to say that is increasingly becoming the most common structure in the NFL.