Bocephuz

Good point. That is a challenge when doing the analysis... sometimes it's obvious the receiver ran a route at the wrong depth.. sometimes it's not obvious. I don't claim for this to be a thorough analysis.. rather it's a thoughtful look at how many of the poor throws are on the O LIne and how many are not directly attributed to O Line play

My basic assumption is that if Orton is able to hit the last step of his drop ( whether it's 3,5 or 7 step) and has a moment to throw ( Ie.. he's not immediately moved off his spot when he finishes his drop) .. then the line has done it's job.

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on Orton? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 44 snaps ( last week was 45 .. so much for being a run first team) LINE BREAKDOWN - 14 snaps or 31% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have much of a chance.. last week was 29% so pass protect was actually slightly worse this week) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 30 snaps or 69% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle had time to throw). One caveat here... in some cases it was difficult to determine if it was a called short throw or a dump down due to pressure. UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS - 6 snaps or 20% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues... last week with EJ it was 11 or 34%) Bottom Line - The O Line was just as bad this week as last week in pass protect.. however.. Orton handled it very well for the most part. He made several plays where pass protect broke down and he took a hit but delivered accurately. One of the unforced errors was his INT.. another was the throw to Watkins in the 4th qtr that was far behind him but he tipped it to himself and caught it anyway. Of the 6 unforced errors only 2 were egregiously off target. Orton typically stepped forward in the pocket to avoid edge rushers and rarely scrambled horizontally. I also saw zero drops... To sum it up..I would attribute poor Offensive Play fault the following way - 60% O Line/ 25% Hackett/ 15% Orton

In starting this thread all I am saying is that Orton consistently makes this kind of throw at this stage in his career and that EJ does not.

So many reasons Pears shouldn't be at Guard... but not having the experience to pick up stunts is definitely a big one

This single screen shot illustrates why Orton is a better option than EJ right now. It displays two things..#1 quick decision making... #2 making an accurate throw while taking a hit to the face. EJ would probably pull it in and do the reverse spin move here.

Hell of lot better than Steve Tasker or Rich Gannon

Hmm... that makes his annual return on investment look a lot better. Before the estimate was for him to make about $50 mil/ year ... ( which equates to 3.5% return on a 1.4 bill investment) .. if he is making $75 mil/ year ROI is 5.35% ... not bad

He was pretty rough in pass protect so I could see a negative grade there... however.. from what I saw he did OK in Run blocking... not sure how much PFF weights Run block vs. Pass Protect. His penalties definitely hurt him .. and all of the penalties looked to be legit.

After re-watching the game and focusing solely on LG Cyril Richardson .. here is what I saw RUN GAME - Overall Grade +8 - WINS ( clearly won assignment/moved defender) 13 - DRAWS ( got double team help or did not win or lose) 11 - LOSS ( clearly missed assignment/lost one on one battle) 5 PASS GAME - Overall Grade -2 - WINS - 6 - DRAWS - 30 - LOSSES - 8 To sum it up, Richardson got quite a bit of help from Wood (probably 70% of snaps he was getting double team help from Wood) and when he was one on one he did very well in the Run game.. but was very shaky in Pass Protect. His initial punch is much more violent than Chris Williams however he does have trouble sustaining the block after the initial hit sometimes. Detroit ran a few pick plays where they crashed the DE into him and the DT stunted around the outside ( not much he could do on those plays). He was more physical than Fairley in the run game but Fairley's quickness off the snap on pass plays burned him several times when he was one on one and not getting help from Wood. I'd expect the Bills to continue to have Wood giving Richardson double team help on passing downs.. which will put all the more pressure on Pears. I need to go back and see how Pears did this game..

59% comp percentage / 20 tds/ 6 Ints/ 2,900 yds... Do you think that would have been enough QB production to win 8 or 9 games for the Bills last year? Those are Kolb's numbers from the 6 games he played in 2012 with Arizona before he got hurt( extrapolated out over a year.. which of course we know is conjecture..but reasonable conjecture). Not exactly Peyton Manning numbers.. but good enough to be a bridge QB for a year while the young team and QB develops and learns. Nobody is saying Kevin Kolb isn't / wasn't a journeyman.. It does matter what Whaley and Nix's intent/plan was because it speaks to whether or not they are competent.. and whether or not Whaley will be a competent GM going forward. Based on the other talent they have drafted/acquired through free agency I find it hard to believe that they thought EJ was an NFL ready QB.. I have to believe they thought he was a project.

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that EJ would have benefitted by sitting out his first year and watching and learning from a Vet more than jumping into the fire. Whether or not that would have been enough for him to evolve his game to the point where he could be an effective starter in year 2?? Who knows?? Maybe he will never figure it out?? However, any sort of grooming would have been beneficial and would have given him better odds of succeeding than the way that it has played out so far.

Lewis was released pretty quickly after underperforming. From what I understand they had been talking to Orton throughout the off season and as soon as they knew they could get him they cut Tuel as fast as they could. I think they knew Orton was there to be had all along.

Completely agree that Hackett and O Line are partially to blame. I also agree that the early pressure understandably made EJ skittish. Unforced Errors happen.. however.. it's one thing to be just off with your throws.. but the majority of his unforced errors were jaw droppingly off target and his mechanics on those throws were completely out of sync. That is what did him in

Training camp and OTAs are one thing... looking good in live action is another. It's a shame Kolb didn't get a chance to play out the preseason and finish the competition. You do make a good point though.. there's a chance that EJ still beats him out.. however... I think if it would've been even Kolb would have started.

Certainly there was some injury risk with Kolb not lasting a whole season.. but I think the risk of him performing below the level of an average NFL QB was low. I think the Bills would have been .500 or slightly better with average QB play last year (keep in mind Thad Lewis won two games in 2013) and I believe that would have been enough to pacify the fan base and justify keeping EJ on the bench for 2013. I think the odds of Kolb staying healthy and playing better than Thad Lewis were good enough for the front office to take on the risk of signing Kolb. I guess what I'm saying is I don't fault the front office for the Kolb signing.. I don't remember there being many other good options at the time.

As a fan I love to hear that kind of inside info.. it gives us a glimpse into what's really going on. As an owner, coach or teammate I would not feel good about Sammy's comments. It doesn't really help the team move forward internally at all. I can't really imagine throwing one of my co-workers under the bus publicly and then having to work with them the next day.

Seems to me like most people around here and in the media have decided it was a foregone conclusion that Whaley and Marrone had planned on starting EJ from day one and that Kevin Kolb was just brought in to be a veteran presence/mentor. I'm quite certain the Bills brain trust wanted to see a real QB competition during preseason 2013 and they were probably secretly hoping that Kolb would perform well enough to be the starter, thus buying EJ some time to observe and develop at a reasonable pace. There is no way on God's green earth that experienced talent evaluators like Whaley and Nix saw EJ as an NFL ready QB. I think they saw a guy with great physical tools and a great work ethic who needed some grooming. Kolb slipping on the mat and then getting that concussion completely derailed that plan and EJ was forced to step in and momentum just drove the situation from there. It seems to be an accepted fact that the Bills made a huge mistake signing Kolb due to his injury history but I think that opinion is convenient Monday morning quarterbacking. EJ would have had a much better shot at success if he would have had to win his job rather than getting it by default through injury and Kolb was signed to be the bridge QB to facilitate that. Unfortunately fate did not allow that to happen. Hopefully he will now have a chance to win his job back by earning it and his next opportunity won't come via injury.

Orton looked very comfortable out of the shotgun in the Week 17 game last year against the Eagles. I think there's a few obvious changes that need to be made - Read option is out... threat of Orton keeping it is nil - Need to emphasize quick game more ( slants/ curls / 3 step drops) more to compensate for poor Guard play.. also plays to Orton's strengths - I think we'll actually see less play action as the quick passes Orton can make serve as a de facto run game and may set up sluggos and double moves for later in the game

Just because the QB gets hit doesn't mean it was due to a breakdown of the O-Line. There were times when he was hit but still had enough time to deliver a good throw before the hit. There were also times when he didn't have enough time, got hit .. and in those cases I did not count the bad throws as "unforced errors". An example of that is the final interception of the game... I did not count that as an unforced error... getting hit there clearly affected his throw.. and he really didn't have enough time to get set and make a good throw . .. the O LIne clearly messed up there

I lived on 18th and Belmont from 2006- 2009 which was literally right across the street from Grand Central which was fantastic. I could walk across the street .. have 6 or 7 beers.. some good wings.. watch Bills games with some good people and walk home.. Jimmy's probably has a more hometown feel and is more fun game watching experience but if you want to hang out and go to great restaurants / bars / nightlife Grand Central in Adams Morgan is a really awesome fun area.

Grand Central.. right...

Jimmy's is a great time... I believe Jimmy is from Arcade. They play the shout song.. good wings.. weck etc.. Highly recommend it. There is also a bar in Adams Morgan in downtown DC called Union Station ( at least it was open a few years ago) that I lived right across the street from that was a Bills bar.

Yes the Eagles were bad on D last year.. but Orton basically carved them up. 358 yds with 2 TDs and 2 INTs ( one of the INTs was not on Orton). Not saying he's the next messiah but at least he performed well against a bad D

Jim Kelly career completion percentage 60.1% http://www.pro-footb.../K/KellJi00.htm (Interestingly enough Fitzy also at 60.1%) Dan Fouts 58.8%