Bocephuz

Emotionless

I thought Mike McCarthy putting Randall Cobb in the backfield in the second half was a bold/effective move. I believe they handed off to him ( for a run up the middle) once, had him motion out for a screen pass .. and then motion out for a normal route. This is the kind of progressive thinking I would love to see from Hackett and co. Sammy Watkins seems like a perfect fit for this type of thing. He excels at YAC and is big enough to absorb the hits he would take from the backfield. The only thing that would make me pause is the potential for him fumbling. Obviously this would be a limited package. Maybe 3 or 4 snaps of him lining up in the backfield per half in this formation? What does everyone else think?

We need an identity on offense one way or another. When EJ was in we were most successful going I formation, 2 TEs with a Fullback and basing everything off of our power running game. We have now gone a complete 180... Frank Summers is not even active most weeks. Screen passes and the short game has basically supplanted our run game. I think Hackett is over enamored with having a vet QB and he totally revamped they system when he really didn't need to. The only thing he needed to change when Orton came is was getting rid of the read option stuff.

Indeed... Wood has been bad pretty much all year ( he's way overhyped). Urbik was solid for a while but has regressed. Pears has actually started to settle in. Mind you all I evaluate is pass protect. One can surmise by 1.) # of pass plays called 2.) poor production of run game that they aren't exactly killing it in the run game either. It was also interesting that most of the pressure was coming from up the gut... The tackles were by no means dominant but they held up fairly well considering who they were going up against.

This was supposed to be the second coming of the K-Gun offense..so if you're gonna do K-Gun do it the right way! I do agree it doesn't necessarily have to be hurry up.. just no huddle. WE have a vet QB and our OC seems overmatched so why not turn it over to Orton and see how he does calling plays and making adjustments at the line.

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) DISCLAIMER ( I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 57 snaps ..or in other words.. an obscenely high amount - (last week was 32 snaps … ) LINE BREAKDOWNS 12 or 21% - last week was 2 snaps or 6% so O Line was much worse this week ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have a moment to throw after hitting the last step of his drop..) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 45 snaps or 79 % of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle hit the last step of his drop and had a moment to throw). UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS: - 9 snaps or 20% - last week was 9 snaps or 28 % of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues/ or taking bad sacks) Bottom Line: Way too many pass attempts put Orton/O Line in tough position (Hackett). Orton was fairly solid between the 20's but the red zone area INTs were killers. Urbik and Woods both had multiple mistakes… rough days in general. The sacks were all legit O line breakdowns. WR's definitely had trouble getting separation.. particularly in 1st half. Credit to Denver dbs. On positive side Orton actually showed some nice escapabilty avoiding pressure, stepping up and hitting throws under duress. He also missed on several throws where he had plenty of time. Most notably he had trouble with hitting the sideline cover 2 hole throws. This game was very similar to the KC game for Orton. __________ __________ PLAYS OF NOTE Q1 - Unforced bad throw to Sammy deep left Q1 - Timing off in miss to Sammy on out route Q1 - 4th down - bad throw to Chandler… Woods was wide open over the middle Q1 Slide Down short of first down ; actually a good decision.. he would have gotten crushed by 53 short of first down if he went for it Q2 SACK Urbik beaten Q2 - SACK Wood pushed back into Orton Q3 - Great throw takes hit and delivers to Woods Q3; INT no-one open.. should have thrown it away or scrambled.. Q3 Great throw Glenn beaten but Orton steps up and hits Sammy deep left Q3 ; INT Orton forces in to first read ..stares down Q3 ; Great throw Orton avoids zero blitz and makes nice completion to Sammy Q4 SACK cb blitz.. great defensive call Q4 - Awesome Sammy catch Wood clueless..gets beaten.. Orton has to dump off quick Q4 Orton misses slant to Goodwin Q4 Orton doesn&t see wide open Hogan over the middle near goal line Q4 Henderson beat.. thrown away Q4 Urbik beaten again.. thrown away Q4 - Overthrows Goodwin left sideline between safety and cb Q4 Great throw - Orton avoids pressure throws on the money to Chandler Q4 - Overthrow to Watkins deep right.. nearly picked off SUMMARY - On second look Orton did a decent job avoiding pressure and made some nice throws on the move. Strangely.. ( and scarily) most of his bad throws were made when he had time and he was just plain off. His INTs were due to lasering in on his first read and trying to force it in where he shouldnt have been forcing it. WRs did have some trouble getting separation.. but a good QB won't try and force it anyway. Unlike previous games, he wasnt able to bail himself out of the hole he dug with miraculous late game throws. Orton isn;t good enough to overcome a multiple INT game. I think he probably played well enough to earn a start next week against Green Bay.. but if he has a similar performance next week I think its obviously EJ time. Also..Eric Wood has really looked bad the last few games and at this point it;s hard to blame it on the guards around him.

It's one thing to have a nice scripted offensive game plan to start the game ( which admittedly worked well in Q1) but once the opposing D makes the adjustment ( ie.. jamming receivers) the coaching staff needs to be able to effectively counter said adjustment. Seems to me focusing on running the ball to set up some sort of play action is a good way to loosen up the cb jamming effect. Hackett's M.O. is to throw the ball 40+ ( or in this game 50+) if the original gameplan goes awry. Clearly having Kyle Orton throw 40+ times in a game ( as he has done in the majority of his starts) is not a good gameplan. I have to think Orton himself knows this. I'd have to think that if Orton was calling the plays that he would rely on the run more if nothing else to make himself look better. Everyone knows that Orton is not an elite QB and I believe the fans, as well as Orton.. would be satisfied if he just played the game manager role. Again.. getting back to my original point that we fans were sold that this Hackett offense was supposed to be built on the K Gun principles. .. and the heart of the K-Gun is the QB Calling plays, and hurry up offense.. both of which we've seen very little or none of since Orton took over. EJ ( a much greener QB) ran the no huddle more than Orton runs it now. The K Gun contrary to popular belief was very balanced as well. Marrone/Hackett need to find an Offensive identity quickly before Russ gets impatient.

That may have been their thinking there.. however..that mentality is very passive. I seem to recall Russ Brandon saying that the team would have an "Aggressive, Attacking Mentality" going forward under new leadership. Calling a screen on 3rd and 11 to set yourself up to go for it on 4th down hardly fits that bill. The fake reverse thing would have been a good idea if they Broncos actually had some tape of Goodwin busting a long reverse at sometime in the past to scare them and make them pause. To my recollection Hackett called a double reverse fake screen pass twice and it failed miserably both times. The double reverse fake screen call is the definition of overthinking and unnecessarily mucking things up.

That is a possibility..it's hard to see that kind of thing on the TV broadcast view but I think I will take a look at it once the All 22 coaches film comes out.

Good insight.. We've beaten ourselves more often than not

I try to be objective and generally have not been a Hackett hater. My general impression watching in real time was that we relied too heavily on the screen pass today. It's hard to tell in real time whether a screen is a dump off or a called play so I went back and watched the DVR to see if my eyes had been deceiving me. So I'm watching the DVR is slo motion and it is Q1 .. We are on the Denver 45 3rd and 11. O line has been holding up well so far.. Giving Orton time. Watching in real time I thought that Orton was forced to dump off to Freddy due to a heavy pass rush... But upon further review Urbik Wood and Pears are bailing on pass protect and are pulling out to the right in anticipation to block the screen for Freddy... and it's clearly a called screen. Play ends in Freddy getting tackled at the 40 ( out of field goal range). We end up going for it on 4th and 5 and don't convert. Momentum is gone and we never get it back. ( b.s. penalties shortly after this don't help). Logic tells you Orton for whatever reason excels at 3rd or 4th and long.. O line is holding up well so far .. Why cripple yourself with a screen pass there? This failure of a crucial play is 100% on Hackett. If I'm Marrone.. And I'm gonna continue on with Orton .. A vet QB who knows the offense by now.. I'm stripping Hackett of his play calling duties and letting Orton call the plays from now on. Granted... Whether or not Orton deserves to keep starting is a whole nother ball of wax.. But if you're gonna go with the vet let him call the plays a la Manning or Kelly. After all... Wasn't Hackett supposed to bring about the second coming of the K-Gun? A screen on 3rd and 11 is very un K Gun. Not letting the QB call the plays is very un K Gun. I'm quite sure Orton in his aggressive nature would not call a screen on 3rd and 11

To tag on ... RGII and EJ may have similarities in their difficulties in adapting to a pro-style offense.. but they are miles apart as far as attitude goes. From all reports EJ is working hard and being a positive influence in the locker room behind the scenes. He's certainly said all of the right things publicly. RGIII is the exact opposite. Based on that.. I'd certainly rather have EJ as a developmental QB rather than RGIII

Hah....

I think we can all agree that there is a large enough sample size on Orton to conclude that throwing the ball 40 times/game and relying on his arm to win games is not a good formula. Definitely need to improve/ focus on the run game more. That being said... we could do much worse than Orton if we are in a situation where we are behind late and need a game winning drive.

Thank you for your feedback and thoughtful replies/posts as well. I like that there fair number of objective reasonable posters here to counteract the shoot from the hip emotional types I have to admit there was a point in the Browns game where the thought of pulling Orton and putting in EJ crossed my mind. I think right at that moment Orton stepped up and made that aggressive 4th down throw to Woods. Orton's best quality is his aggressiveness and willingness to put the ball in tight spots.. and I think that type of attitude digs him out of the holes he puts himself in. Risky business though... I really hope he can develop some more consistency.. particularly since the O line is playing much better now. If he keeps walking that tightrope it's going to be tough to justify him being the everyday guy next year.

I counted that one as an unforced error.. just didn't put it as a notable play I think that's what we are seeing is the Good Orton/ Bad Orton phenomenon .. which is probably the real Orton. I think he was pumped up the first few weeks and now that he is more comfortable perhaps the real Orton is coming out now. He's definitely better than any QB we've had since Bledsoe when he's on.. I think we just have to hope that his bad streaks only go one or two games in a row at the most

SURE.. here's what I have so far. I'll post the O Line numbers as well as Orton's numbers. - Two things to note here - O LIne has been much better since Urbik came back week 8 - Orton was making steady progress up until the Dolphins game and has been up and down since ORTON UNFORCED ERROR HISTORY - Week 5 - DETROIT - 20% Unforced Error Rate ( defined as 20% of his throws where Orton had time were off target.. or he took a bad sack) 26% O Line Breakdown Rate ( defined as Orton not having a moment to throw when he hits his last step of his drop) - Week 6 - NE - 15% Unforced Error Rate 25% O Line Breakdown Rate -Week 7 - SD - 10% Unforced Error 28% O Line Breakdown - Week 8 - NYJ - 14% Unforced Error 19% O Line Breakdown - Week 10 - KC - 11% Unforced Error 9% O Line Breakdown - Week 11 - Dolphins - 22% Unforced Error 20% O Line Breakdown - Week 12 - Jets ( did not do analysis - I would assume it to be a low # for both units here) = Week 13 - Browns - 28% Unforced Error 6% O Line Breakdown

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) DISCLAIMER ( I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 32 snaps (much better snap count … ) LINE BREAKDOWNS - 2 snaps or 6% ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have a moment to throw after hitting the last step of his drop..) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 30 snaps or 96 % of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle hit the last step of his drop and had a moment to throw). UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS: - 9 snaps or 28 % of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues/ or taking bad sacks) Bottom Line: A game of extremes for Orton. On one hand he made two incredible throws on the run ( very unusual for him) and on the other hand he had 2 brutal interceptions and 9 unforced errors ( tying his previous high for the year). The O Line was absolutely outstanding. Orton had tons of time for the most part. They missed a few stunts and gave up some pressures on a few blitzes but when it was even numbers they quite frankly dominated. Some of the inaccuracy is on Orton.. some of it is due to the outstanding work of the Cleveland secondary. They pretty much blanketed our receivers all day. __________ __________ PLAYS OF NOTE Q1- ball batted by DE Q1- Orton misses Hogan twice.. good coverage .. but better throws could have been made Q1 - O Line doesn’t pick up stunt Q2 - Orton INT – plenty of time.. forced it into Sammy.. should have thrown it away .. no one open Q2 - Overthrown deep ball to Sammy ( CB held Sammy a little but I still think it was overthrown) Q2 - Orton SACKED – coverage sack Q2 - Orton double clutches.. misses Sammy on Slant Q3- Orton INT – forcing it to Sammy Q3- Orton makes outstanding sideline throw to Woods on the run Q3 - Orton scrambles on 4th down.. another outstanding throw on the run to Woods Q3 - Orton deep throw to Goodwin incomplete… good throw.. better coverage Q4 - Orton overthrows Woods Q4 - Orton misses back shoulder throw to Woods SUMMARY - Orton had a very rough day but redeemed himself with the two clutch throws to Woods. Orton is not good enough/accurate enough to overcome solid coverage like the Browns were executing. Granted there's only a handful of guys ..Manning, Brees, Rodgers.. who can make those throws.. but I think I've seen enough of a sample size to absolutely conclude Orton is not in their category. If the O-Line continues to play like this and give Orton sufficient time like this game then much more should be expected of Orton going forward.

Sullivan very rarely adds any insight in his pieces. He tends to let emotion cloud rational judgment. 3 weeks ago he was begging the Bills Front office to give Orton a 5 year contract... then...after 2 subpar games Sullivan completely backtracked and basically said Orton is a bum. Hmmm... maybe the wise thing to do would be to wait until there is a sufficient sample size to make a statement like that. Sullivan's a hack. Since the BN has Carrucci and Graham Sullivan kind of seems like a fifth wheel anyway. Also.. Leo and Sal over at the D&C are getting a little stale.

Seems to me like the best thing to do if The Ralph isn't ready on Sunday is to move the game to Monday night.. However... if for whatever reason that isn't feasible what are the alternatives? Off the top of my head here are some choices: Toronto - Rogers Centre ( seems most likely... Argos season is over... looks like it is available) Syracuse - Carrier Dome ( Cuse is on the road this week) Cleveland - Browns Stadium - ( Cleveland is on the road this week) _____ ___________ Personally if it came down to it I'd prefer the Carrier Dome. What does everyone else think?

It's a fine line on some of those plays. On one hand I'm sure the coaches got on him for trying to do too much while under pressure and fumbling like he did in his first few games..and clearly he's listened and put it into action... but on the other side of the coin ...there are some opportunities where it seems like he's bailing a hair too early.

He had some legitimate throwaways due to pressure... however.. there were a couple of " throwaways" that didn't need to be throwaways... IE.. he could have stood in there.. taken the hit .. and accurately delivered to an open receiver. I agree it's too early to pull the plug on Orton. However.. if he keeps shying away from hits the next couple of games and has similar results then at that point we should probably see what we have in EJ.

That was definitely a killer... that should have been 6 and would have really given us a chance. It wasn't an awful throw.. he overthrew him by about a yard. Nevertheless, he missed on that one so that's on Orton.

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) DISCLAIMER ( I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 41 snaps ( last game against Chiefs was 47.. game plan was fairly balanced up until 4th quarter trying to play comeback.. ) LINE BREAKDOWNS - 8 snaps or 20 % of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have a moment to throw after hitting the last step of his drop.. last week was 9% so pass protect was worse than last week) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 33 snaps or 80 % of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle hit the last step of his drop and had a moment to throw). UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS: - 9 snaps or 22% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues/ or taking bad sacks... last week it was 5 snaps or 11%. Definitely his worst game so far relating to unforced errors) Bottom Line: The tape verified the perception that this was Orton's worst game yet as a Bill. The O Line and Orton were fairly efficient and productive up until the end of the 3Q. Q4 was a disaster. Miami blitzed heavily at the end of the game and neither the O Line or Orton handled it well. Orton missed on several throws where he had a clean pockets. The most disturbing thing was his shying away from taking a hit this game. In the past few games Orton showed the toughness to stand and deliver accurately knowing he'd take a hit. There were several instances where he missed on throws because he wasn't willing to take the hit and deliver. __________ __________ PLAYS OF NOTE Q1 - Orton hesitates.. unforced bad throw misses Sammy Q1 - Chandler drop on good pass Q1 - Unforced error - Red Zone pass to Mike Williams telegraphed and almost picked off Q3 - Intentional Grounding – O Line breakdown – awful call by refs Q3 - Unforced error, almost intercepted.. plenty of time.. bad decision by Orton trying to squeeze in to Hogan Q4 - Unforced error , has time..slightly overthrows wide open Sammy down sideline deep … this one hurt.. our best chance at comeback just missed Q4- Unforced error, off target to Woods.. had time Q4- Sack, good coverage by Miami Q4 - O line breakdown – Wake beats Henderson.. Orton forced to throw early Q4 - Wood misses stunt – Orton has to throw it away Q4 - unforced dump down to Brown – Chandler open Q4 - Sack - total line breakdown Q4 - unforced error - Hail Mary thrown out of bounds SUMMARY - Orton was very solid/efficient in the first half .. but was definitely subpar for the 4th quarter. Since he has very little mobility .. he needs to be able to stand in and take hits to deliver accurately. He did this in Detroit and Minnesota..sacrificing his body to make a completion.. but this week against Miami he just didn't have the stones to step up, stand in there and deliver with a guy in his face. Hopefully Orton gets his stones back sooner rather than later. Orton's game is predicated on sitting in the pocket, taking the big hit and delivering... if he doesn't get back to that in the next few games then it will be interesting to see if EJ comes back in. That is what I will be looking for from Orton the next few weeks.. toughness.. hopefully we'll see it come back.