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Bocephuz

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Everything posted by Bocephuz

  1. That is an accurate statement. In the first few games against lesser edge rushers he was hanging on by a thread vs. the outside speed rush. The dam finally broke in Miami. Kujo looked very solid at LT this preseason and also was solid in filling in for Glenn the first few games this year. LT was his college position... more of a natural fit.
  2. That is actually a sensible idea... Kujo was very solid early in the year filling in for Glenn on the left... the position he played in college. He has never really looked comfortable at RT. As long as the line as a whole is functioning I don't know why it matters if Glenn or Kujo plays LT. Glenn already got his LT long term big bucks contract so I doubt if he would object... and I think it would be just for this season anyway. We need to either draft or get permanent FA RT for long term.
  3. Jordan Mills is officially a tire fire after the last 3 games. He was abused in Miami, barely held on against the Pats and was abused in Seattle. His pass protection is a clear liability and some major adjustments need to be made.. right? Here are some options.. what do you all think? INTERNAL REPLACEMENTS Kouandjio - Is he even healthy? He was great at LT but can he go back to RT and be competent? Henderson - Is he healthy? He was not very good when healthy but can he at least be a stop gap? SCHEME ADJUSTMENTS Does Anthony Lynn need to give Mills or whoever the RT is more RB and TE help in pass protect? FREE AGENTS Are there any plausible free agents out there to consider signing?http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2016/right-tackle/available/
  4. All valid points. If there was one takeaway from my post I would highlight it would be that while the O line had breakdowns it would be unfair to pin the majority of the O's issues in the passing game on poor protection
  5. Good observation. I still think TT is going off of pre-determined reads from the called play and he isn't really at a level of awareness to execute the kind of pre snap improvisation you point out here TT and Alex Smith are good comparison. Both mobile and risk averse. Smith has better footwork and is better at timing routes... TT is better at deep ball
  6. It's a valid point regarding Bills QB vs rest of league. The heart of my analysis is to give an honest picture of how much pass rush affects any particular throw and how much is on the QB himself. I started this because I was trying to figure how how much of EJ's issues were due to bad o line play and how much was on him alone.
  7. One of those 3 and outs was a direct result of back to back drops by Clay and Tate Whatever Lynn's gameplan was it certainly was not at all like the successful Week 4 gameplan. Week 4 was all about the quick game, 3 step drops, slants hitches etc...which TT executed surprisingly well. There was very little of that week 8. ALynn was definitely calling more intermediate and deep routes. Belichick frequently rushed 3 and dropped 8 in the 1st half and naturally this clogged up passing lanes.. so the wuick game wasn't really there to be had. A Lynn probably should have called more draw plays. and more called TT runs to get them out of that.
  8. I don't have the time to watch every pass play of every NFL game and write up an analysis to get that data. I can only go from the data/ studies I myself have done regarding recent Bills QB play in games I've analyzed. Im not claiming to make any sort of overarching statement on NFL QB play.. just trying to apply some sort of method to analyzing how much impact OLine play has on QB play for the Bills
  9. Good question.. keep in mind I haven't analyzed every game .. but I have looked at 9 games from 2015-2016. The first 2 games had EJ at QB. Here are some stats The average number of QB Unforced Errors in the 4 Bills Wins in these games is 2.75/ game The average number of Unforced Errors in the 5 Bills Losses is 6.33 / game The overall average for all 9 games I reviewed of Unforced Errors is 5.88 /game In the two games EJ was evaluated his average is 11.5 UE/ game ( 2015 Bengals /Jaguars ) In the 7 games for TT his average is 4.28 UE/ game TT's worst game was Chiefs game last year... had 8 UE and they lost
  10. I think Geary does a good job of breaking down the individual plays and technique but he doesn't really put things into overall context...he has a bit of an agenda and cherry picks a few plays to prove his point
  11. There were 2 unquestionable drops.. ( Clay and Tate in Q1) I believe Powell had another unquestionable drop and Hunter dropped a hitch route( would have been tough catch but hit him in the hands). By that count it is certainly 3 and arguably 4 drops against Pats
  12. Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 36 - (last week was 40 for reference) LINE BREAKDOWNS: 9/36 - or 25% of snaps ( last week was 12/40 or 30% of snaps) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 25% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 27/36 snaps or 75%. (last week was 70%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 75% of the time UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 6/27 snaps or 22% ( last week was 5/28 snaps or 18%) Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid. TT had 6unforced errors by my count.. so he was over the line. Bottom Line: 1ST HALF PASS PROTECT WAS OK - Very similar to last week against the Dolphins..The O Line held up reasonably well in the 1st half. John Miller was cleanly beaten once in q1 but other than that TT had a relatively clean pocket for most of the first half. Some of this can be attributed to Pats only rushing 3 and dropping 8. However.. as the game wore on the Pats started to bring more bodies and heat toward the QB. RICHIE STRUGGLES AGAIN - The interior of the O Line really struggled in the second half and in particular in q4. Richie Incognito had 3 plays in one q4 series in which he was either physically beaten by his man or mentally did not recognize/ pick up stunts. I'm really starting to worry about 64 .. his pass protect has been poor the last few weeks and really seems to be getting worse. Here are some examples 64 fails to recognize the Safety blitz/stunt.. does not disengage from 91 to pick up 23.. resulting in TT flushed out of pocket . This one may be on both Wood and Incognito.. but I think I would shift the majority of the blame on 64. #95 executes a twist stunt. Wood fails to recognize and disengage his guy to pick up #95.. and Incognito is blocking ghosts and doesn't even look to his right In this play Richie just flat out gets physically beaten to the point of attack and #91 gets a solid hit on TT DROPS - TT had his share of poorly thrown unforced errors. However, there were some very bad drops.. including several particularly painful ones during the 2nd series of the game. At 3:59 Q1 Charles Clay dropped a decently thrown crossing route. On the next play .. Brandon Tate dropped a well thrown Cover 2 beater on 3rd down that killed a crucial series. https://gfycat.com/AgitatedIndelibleDikdik TYROD MISSES DEEP/ STRUGGLES THROWING TO RED ZONE- Not all of the blame can be put on TT for this one (O Line melted down in Q4, Receivers had bad drops) however... a fair amount of blame should go his way. His biggest misses were 2 deep balls to Powell in q3.. in both cases he didn't really give Powell a chance to catch the ball. And in both cases.. TT had a relatively clean pocket to throw from. In this example here he just overthrows Powell and doesn't give him a chance In this example it is thrown too far inside and short.. again.. he doesn't have a chance to make a play SUMMARY - Last week in Miami the O Line shouldered the majority of the blame for poor passing game performance. This week the O Line played betterThey had some bad moments but generally gave TT time in most situations. Mills had a much better game (although he did give up one sack on a speed outside rush).. and Incognito really just broke down on one series toward the end of the game. Tyrod had plenty of clean pockets to throw from but for the most part his receivers either let him down.. or he let his receivers down with unforced errors. Belichick rushing 3 and dropping guys in coverage really messed up the timing routes.. however.. there were many plays to be had that just weren't executed. TT can't afford to miss on his long balls.. if he doesn't hit one per game the Bills just don't have much of a chance of winning. After watching the All 22 I come away from this game with mixed feelings regarding Taylor. For example.. the underthrow to Clay in Q4 on the seam route was caused by pressure (which I didn't see in real time). He did have a few nice timing throws to Powell. On the other side of the coin there were some errant throws (like the one to Powell in q2 that was late, high and behind him) that looked just as bad in all 22 as they did in real time. Last week in Miami there were really only 2 ugly throws.. this week there were 4 or 5. If TT is going to continue to be conservative he can't afford to have 6 unforced errors ..essentially wasted opportunities.. in a game. O Line Pass block grades GLENN - B+ INCOGNITO - C- WOOD - B- MILLER - C MILLS- c+ PLAYS OF NOTE q113:25 - UNFORCED ERROR Q112:00 - John Miller beaten to the inside by 97 q1 3:59 - Clay drops decently thrown crossing route q1 3:54 - Tate drops beautifully thrown cover 2 beater on 3rd down killing a drive q2 13: 55 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late, high and behind Powell q2 11:10 - Gillislee misses blitz pickup, 91 hits TT resulting in seam throw to Clay q2 3:15 - nice thrown in tight window to Powell q2 1:21 - another nice timing route to Powell q2 - UNFORCED ERROR - throw behind Woods q2 - :38 - UNFORCED ERROR - another throw behind Woods q3 14:00 - Hunter drops a hitch throw q3 13:19 - Mills beaten to outside by Hightower resulting in sack q3 8:09 - UNFORCED ERROR - overthrow to Powell on go route in end zone q3 1:39 - UNFORCED ERROR - underthrown and too far inside to Powell on go route in end zone q4 4:15 - 95 blitzes untouched.. causes underthrown seam route to Clay q4 6:18 - Incognito misses stunt.. 23 flushes TT from pocket q4: 5:59 - Incognito misses stunt causing pressure on TT q4: Incognito beaten by his man and gives up hit on TT
  13. He had a few plays where he was bull rushed back into the QBs face last week. That being said he was still clearly the best OLineman that day. No sacks allowed and very few pressures allowed. He's a prow bowl level LT no doubt. Props to Buddy Nix
  14. Thanks...hard to find objective peoples round these parts nowadays
  15. We just need a QB competent enough to break the playoff drought and change the culture. He's our best chance to do that for the next few years. Ideally we groom his successor in the meantime
  16. Those type of pinpoint accuracy issues that limit YAC are what separates the elite Qbs ( Rogers, Brady) with the mid range average QBs.( which we are hoping TT can be) . I don't think many people expect TT to get to that elite level.. and neither do the Bills as the deal they have on the table pays him slightly more than average of starters.
  17. He has indeed been ok up to this point... doing just enough in pass protect to hold the line. He is actually quite stout at handling power rushers but when you get a guy with speed across from him he can be exposed like he was Sunday. That being said Wake is an elite pass rusher who has embarrassed many RTs. I just wish Mills or the coaches could have made some sort of adjustment to force Wake inside rather than just giving him the edge most times... or at least give Mills some TE or RB help. It was obvious after q1 he was in way over his head.
  18. I only looked at the pass attempts.. so if there was read option then they must have taken the option to keep it and run.
  19. Good point. I think some called screens or shovel passes toward Wake may have helped to take advantage of his aggressiveness.. maybe would have slowed him down a little.
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