Rocky Landing
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Posts posted by Rocky Landing
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I did answer the question: It would be a zero risk trade with a high potential return. (As opposed to what we got: A high risk trade with a high potential return.)With all due respect, you avoided the question. Let's not concern ourselves with
criticism from external sources. They simply don't matter and are not germane
to football decisions. Why would selecting Watkins, no strings attached, be
such a good pick?
GO BILLS!!!
And, why are external sources not germane to football decisions?
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High Risk/High Reward... (deja vu)...
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If we were able to trade our #9 for Cleveland's #4, there would not be a person on the face of the planet criticizing us for it, because it would be a zero risk trade with a high potential return-- far from what we got. Of course (and I'm assuming this is your point), Watkins would still be Watkins.Semantics indeed.
I agree entirely that the success of Watkins depends on the relative success of those around him. I don't know anyone that would argue that point. It's football, after all. I don't share in the idea that you don't acquire elite WR talent because you're not sure of your QB and it's a waste of that elite WR talent. That's letting fear determine your personnel moves and you can't operate that way. Like it or not, we are committed to Manuel most likely through 2015. He and everyone else understands that Watkins and the rest of the team are only going as far as his play merits.
Regarding the value judgement of next year's class, I was careful to note that it's indeed a subjective undertaking, especially at this point, when the work on next year's draft is in its infancy. And the two guys that inform me of that opinion were also very quick to point that out. But it's also a very real factor in why the Bills pulled the trigger on the deal THIS YEAR.
Let me pose the question I posed in another thread: if we simply exchanged picks with the Browns without any other consideration and we picked Watkins at #4, would that be a good pick? If so, why?
GO BILLS!!!
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I think I often come off as being an EJ hater. I'm not. My point in my doom and gloom scenario (not the one where Watkins gets hit by a train, but the one where EJ plays below expectations) isn't that I think it's going to happen, or that I am against the Watkins trade. (For the record, I didn't like it wham it happened, but I'm excited by it, and looking forward to see how it pans out.) My point is that it was a high risk/high return investment. Everyone knows what the potential return is-- and I'm certainly not ignoring that. But, I think a lot of fans with the rose colored glasses are utterly denying the level of risk.Than getting hit by a train yes of course. It is just as plausible that Manuel will have a good season and take steps forward (and even more so imo) that he will suck terribly. He didn't even suck last year. His numbers were very in line with what should be expected of a rookie qb. Add in the fact that he has been given many more tools (stud wr, o-line help, revamping of lb crew, dedicated qb coach, etc..) and I think he will progress this year.
As for the 2015 first round qb selection I would like to say that the last 2 years were supposed to be very strong qb drafts when viewed a year out. Neither turned out to be that way. There is no guarantee that next year will either. Right now it looks like Hundley, Winston, and Mariota are the guys. If they are as good as advertised they wouldn't be available to the Bills save for a trade up or a severe bottoming out for the team. If they aren't they may be available at the bottom of the first where the Bills can trade back up and get them if they decide to go that course.
It seems like most people against the trade are already convinced that Manuel isn't the guy. The team isn't.
I think you're right that a lot of people who were against the trade have no faith in EJ. I think others are simply unconvinced, and wary of the cost.
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Your arguments are becoming utterly semantic. For one thing, there is not a single person on this thread who has attempted to "quantify" anything. Quantification and valuation are two afferent things. The discussion is the value of the Watkins trade. For some reason, you are dismissing any discussion of the cost of Watkins, because you assert that the cost cannot be "quantified." But, you are more that wiling to tout the product of the trade (presumably, because Watkins lives ,and breathes, he can be "quantified"), even though the product results are equally speculative.I'd be interested in hearing about what I have speculated concerning Sammy Watkins' career. I haven't. Watkins is simply the only tangible asset regarding the trade.
Next year's first round pick simply can't be quantified at this point.
Here is some speculation for you though: given all I've heard about Sammy Watkins from a couple guys I really trust, there won't be a receiver available in next year's draft that comes close to approaching him in terms of ability, both demonstrated on the college level and in his potential as a pro. Indeed, there may not a player at ANY position, who will enter next year's draft with as high a grade as Watkins garnered this year. Such is what the scouting community thought of Watkins coming out.
Please understand that I fully appreciate the very subjective nature of the scouting business. But even given all his hoopla, I think Watkins is UNDER-valued by a fair portion of the fanbase simply BECAUSE of the trade and what we invested in the pick vs. his actual ability.
GO BILLS!!!
But, then, you go on to make a value statement regarding next year's draft class! I suppose that's OK because your valuation doesn't contain any quantification?... or something? Just talking in circles, now.
Here's a point I would like to make regarding the VALUE of the trade for Watkins:
The VALUE of Watkins is not simply a measure of his ability, but of his production, as well. His production will be affected not only by his own ability, but by the performance of those around him, especially EJ. In other words, if EJ doesn't perform, Watkins value drops, and visa versa. So there are two plausible scenarios on which I and others have speculated on this thread that have opposite outcomes, vis a vis the value of the Watkins trade:
1) EJ perform great, Watkins performs great, and our pass production skyrockets. We win games. If at this point we don't end the season with dire needs, the value of next year's 1st rounder drops considerably, and we have made a great investment in Watkins. = Low Cost/High Return.
2) EJ is a bust. Watkins' talents are underutilized. His production is not enough to bring us up in the division. We end the season with a dire need at quarterback. In this scenario the value of our 2015 picks are much higher, and the investment in Watkins = High Cost/Low Return.
These are both plausible scenarios, and one of these two things will happen to some degree. This is the nature of a High Risk/High Return investment. And, you'll notice, I didn't try to "quantify" anything.
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Unfortunately, yeah. I remember a similar story regarding Tim Tebow, and we all know how that turned out.Remember when Bill Walsh told us Trent Edwards was good...this is next to useless information
Edit: Just so we're straight, I'm NOT comparing EJ to Tebow. In fact, I'm sorta starting to drink the EJ kool-aide.
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Wouldn't that be more of a libertarian agenda?Next it will be crack, then Meth then whatever else the liberals want passed
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This is an absolutely silly post. Of course we can (and should) speculate on the future value of our two 2015 picks that we invested. The "value begins and ends with Sammy Watkins...(?)" I don't even know what that means. But, the assertion that you can't speculate on the value of anything until all of the "known values in the equation" are... er, "known" or something, is worthy of a face palm--Please tell me the value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. Right now that "value" begins and ends with Sammy Watkins, the only "known" value in the equation at present.
We can discuss the trade all we want. The value of the trade won't be known until there are certain quantifiers in place.
GO BILLS!!!
Look, here's a handy Draft Pick Value Chart:
http://harvardsports...draftvalue1.jpg
I'm not sure what any of that means, but I think it's pretty funny that it even exists.
So, no, I can't tell you the precise value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. It would be silly to try. No one can say exactly what the ROI will be on Watkins until it happens. If we did, there would be nothing to debate! But there is plenty of information, and various scenarios that make it worthy of discussion and speculation. Future values are always based on speculation-- even investments with guaranteed returns.
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It's not that slippery. How many NFL players drink in their off-time?How long before cocaine violations are relaxed? It was once used for it's medicinal value as well.
This is a slippery slope.
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I suppose that depends on the definition of "enhancement." I can say, with 100% certainty, that my performance in bed, and on the ski slopes is much better with a little weed. My performance on an aptitude test?... not so much.About time. There is no performance enhancement from weed and states where two NFL teams play have legalized it.
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That's not exactly true. There was quite a bit of speculation, right up until Kolb's injury (I'm not even sure which one!), as to who would be the starting QB last season. I would say that a clear majority of people on this forum argued adamantly that EJ should start right away, and anything else would be a waste of time. You might have been one of them. I was not-- and I felt distinctly in the minority.If EJ doesnt pan out
If EJ doesnt pan out
If EJ doesnt pan out
This is a horse that has been beaten to death....sent to the glue factory.....put back together again in a paper machey horse....then set on fire
Why is it so hard to understand that this is the QB that this leadership group has hooked their cart to.....and that he probably not only gets this year but THE FOLLOWING YEAR as well due to the injury plagued shortened first year season.......
Kevin Kolb was brought in to be the transition guy......when he got hurt EJ got thrown into the fire earlier then they anticipated.....but now we are past that first stage and now they are just looking for EJ to show progression.
Look at the OL
Look at the recievers
Look at the running game
THey have effectively built this team up AROUND the young quarterback
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That's really not true. We can easily place a value on future picks. (And the FO better be doing just that!) And, we can certainly discus how our current situation, and other likely scenarios will affect the value of our future picks. It's an interesting discussion. This thread is all about the perceived value of our trade-up for Watkins. How can we discus that trade, if we don't discus the potential value of what we invested?This is the perfect description of a front office that operates out of fear. You simply can't do that. Ever. You either have faith in your process and belief in the players you select and the price you sometimes pay to select them, or you don't. All this gnashing of teeth over a future pick for a future player that doesn't even exist yet, is a waste of time. It simply can't be quantified until all the facts are in.
GO BILLS!!!
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I think this is a fair point, at least strictly in terms of numbers. But, watching the games (at least by my recollection), Tuel mostly stunk up the field. Lewis, i believe, played higher than expectations, and had clearly done his homework leading up to his performance. But, I think there was a definite difference in style, and it's easier to imagine EJ having a higher ceiling from what we saw, and Lewis less so.Agreed, but given the body of work from his injury shortened 2013 season we are left with an incomplete assessment of EJ's capacity to handle the task. Given management's work to date to put the talent around him it appears they believe he's up to the task. I hope they're right.
My concern is the Bills employed 3 inexperienced QB's during the 2013 NFL season and while I'm no expert on QB's or statistical performance metrics my observations through watching all 16 games was there wasn't much seperation between the results of the 3 individuals. I would have expected EJ, a 1st round choice from a top college program, to 'start' from a higher floor of performance than Tuel and Lewis. And clearly out-perform them which he didn't. I'm not saying EJ won't work out and I want him to but I am unclear what evidence there is from the work to date that clearly tells us the light is going to come on. Until we see some results its just wishful thinking and the big risk going into the season.
That's just my gut feeling, and my gut feelings are often wrong.
Cute, but transparent.I don't believe I mentioned any name in my statement. But I quess Stevie Johnson was what came to your mind
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That post pretty much qualifies you as a "hater."At least we won't have to worry about the ball being dropped at the most costly times
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Your post should have, "I conjectured," in quotation marks. It would still be wrong, however. I conjecture that Jauronimo was speaking in the present tense.The above should be I conjectured.
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I agree with this. I wasn't at all happy with the trade when it went down, but it's exciting as hell. ALL IN!This team has been risk adverse since Polian. Sometimes you need to roll the dice and put the kids' new shoe money on the table.
It's a risky game, with short careers and a need for luck (which you can work hard to shape) in every season. Let's win the Super Bowl, not the Actuarial Bowl...
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In the simplest terms, the risk is that we won't get an adequate return on our investment. Our first, and fourth round picks in the next draft is our investment, which will be compounded if we have a dire need, say, at quarterback. The absolute worst case scenario is that Watkins gets hit by a train, and we get absolutely nothing for our investment. But, a more plausible scenario is that EJ plays below expectations, or gets injured again, we don't see a significant increase in our passing game, we miss out on a quality, first-round quarterback selection in the 2015 draft, and we start the 2015 season with very poor options at quarterback. That is a very real risk.From management's perspective, I don't see the risk. If you lose next year, everyone is fired by the new owner. If you win, new owner will want to sell tickets and offset the lack of a 1st round pick with $$$$ in free agency. The risk is on the fans' side. If he sucks, we have nothing to talk about leading up to the draft and a long offseason. It also likely means EJ sucked and we don't have a way to replace him (not even $$$$ buys a top flight QB).
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^^^You two should get a room.^^^
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Training camp hasn't even begun, and already we are building the foundations for... excuses.
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GMs are also looking to sell tickets, merchandise, and product sponsorship. And, considering that Sam has the #2 top selling jersey, (as a 7th round pick!), I would guess that will give him a leg up on making the final roster, IMO. The NFL is, after all, a business.There are a handful of NFL executives that might not want him because he is gay; the other 95% of GM's and coaches are just looking at his football readiness for the NFL. The media, including the NFL network, are doing what they always do: hype a story. As for us, the fans, I think it breaks the same as NFL executives, a handful don't want him or don't like him because he is gay, most of us don't care one way or the other but want to know if he can play. Then there are probably a few gay people, NFL executives, players and some fans, that are rooting for him because he is gay. "Not that there is anything wrong with that." I'm not gay, but I gotta say, I'm kinda rooting for the kid. I hope he can play.
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Is that not what sports journalists do in the offseason?Trying to make a story where there is none is pretty annoying IMO.
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As a professional set-lighting technician in Los Angeles, I will take exception to your overgeneralization of the media. In fact, I've actually worked quite a bit for Fox Sports. The media are certainly whores, in that they sell themselves for money, but doesn't that just make them another business? Whores are just trying to make a living like everybody else. And, it's not entirely accurate to say, "they earn their keep by shilling for teams, coaches, and players." They're simply selling stories and opinions. The more interesting, compelling, (and yes, accurate), those stories are, the more people will watch/listen-to/read them, and the more they will be worth. They're not shilling for teams, players, and coaches. They're shilling for Coors, Budweiser, Old Spice, and, now with the newer LGBT-friendly NFL, maybe some nice designer fashions.Let me say this about the mega-minds in the "media".
If Watkins were openly gay, every one of those bastages would absolutely LOVE the pick and would openly question why Texas, St Kenny GzuitonLouie, and Jax didn't pick him and for heaven's sake why the hell did the Brownies trade down for less than what he was worth.
The media are whores, plain and simple. They don't earn their pay by stocking players on any team, they earn their keep by shilling for teams, coaches, and players. They feed fan's obsession for knowledge about players, but they're amongst some of the least knowledgable people on the planet when it comes to football acumen and how to build a team.
But, don't think for a moment that these sports-media whores don't take the accuracy of their reporting seriously.
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but CJ has pretty exceptional hands for a RB, no? I remember Gailey playing him for a while as a WR. EJ's going to have a lot of options out there. We didn't just draft Watkins to be an elite WR. We also drafted him because we are "all in" on EJ.Kind of hard to double team Watkins if you have Mike Williams doing anything above pedestrian and a steady dose of Graham and Goodwin taking the top off every so often; mix in wildcard Robert Woods and you have consistency across the field with dump off options anywhere.
Of those dump off options we know Chandler will ding out 3 or 4 yards per catch, Fred Jackson will get at least 3 or 4, CJ Spiller is always a candidate to take it to the end zone, Dennis Dixon and the rest we know so little about but do not count them out.
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I think you are looking at it too narrowly. Speaking in terms of the thread subject, the value of Watkins should not just be confined simply to his ability, but to the impact he has on the team, and its overall value thereof. Suffice to say, if he's all he's cracked up to be, Watkins could probably make a play if Kevin Kolb were throwing to him from his hospital bed. But, would that get us to the playoffs? Not likely.IMO you are looking at it backwards. There is very little risk associated with Watkins. He is the top WR prospect in 5 years with an extremely high floor and ceiling. He is one of the safest picks in the draft in years. The risk is EJ. If he doesn't develop this talented team will not be in position to land a franchise QB.
Like it, or not, Watkins' effectiveness, like ALL receivers, will be inextricably linked to the person throwing to him. The debate here isn't whether or not we have drafted an elite player, but whether the value of his addition will equal, or exceed the price we paid for him. And, the tricky part is: if EJ is not up to the task, we have undermined Watkins' elitism for next season, as well as this one.
ESPN Insider--some doubt as to how Watkins game translates at NFL leve
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted